Post 2 of 3: Keeping the quality of discussion in DT above MND’s piss poor PR efforts
On weapon stockpiles, not sure why Taiwan only has 500 Stingers. A couple of years ago it was said to have
around 2,000. Another 250 were approved for sale (delivery pending)
in 2019.
More may be ordered from the US.
6. Again, more Taiwanese MND PR bullshit. THEY CAN’T shoot accurately with a rifle.
Q2: Do you really want to talk about Taiwanese conscripts shooting Stinger missiles at aircraft?
Ans: Who cares if they have 500 or 2,000 Stinger missiles, if that Taiwan conscript can’t shoot (except in prone position). Who cares, when an average Taiwanese conscript has never been to a demolition range. They are not even trained to competent in basic infantry skills. Therefore, the ROC Army’s reserves, when mobilised cannot fight as a battalion, making them less than useful in many island defence scenarios.
Q3: Are the Taiwanese conscript going to be trained to fire anti-armour weapons, like the matador (or it’s equivalent)?
Ans: Conscripts are not stupid, they know when the Taiwanese MND are bullshitting them — every army that went to Afghanistan had to change, to avoid dying. Given that Taiwan’s threat is a PLA invasion, and the ROC Army conscripts are required to defend its cities & beach landing sites, with priority:
(a) given to training conscripts on up-to-date TTPs for urban warfare, but they are not (instead only Taiwanese special forces are well trained in that respect). If the ROC Army was serious about reform, they would have at least conducted a week long CQB class for its current conscripts who serve for 4 months; and
(b) given to training conscripts on the use anti-armour weapons but they are not even in the training syllabus. This is why the Taiwanese conscript knows they are cannon fodder. In contrast, every Israeli or Singapore conscript in an infantry vocation would have gone for urban warfare training and also for a matador live fire.
Like Singapore and Isreal, Ukraine uses thousands of matadors — which are anti-structure & anti-armour munitions well suited for urban warfare (due to its small black-blast area and it’s ability to be fired in confined areas). Thus far, Ukraine has used about 13,000 matadors.
As for the rest of what you've said, I don't have time to look at it in depth.
7. Then consider keeping silent until you finish your research.
Q4: How low is the morale of Taiwanese troops or pilots?
Ans: Especially when Taiwan detains 3 active-duty officers and a retired Air Force officer suspected of spying for China. And in the past, LTC Lin Xianshun & Maj. Huang Zhicheng flew their F-5s to defect to China. Dr. Shen Ming-Shih of @INDSRTW says that unity among Taiwan’s people & political parties will be a critical factor in a conflict scenario — if you notice, it’s the lack of unity that is even more pressing than lack of weapons. Many are not willing to fight, as the defections by pilots, to China show.
8. When you don’t know what you are talking about in terms of Taiwanese failure at MND level to enact meaningful reform, not replying is also an option.
But I suppose the question is, do you think it's better for Taiwan to announce reforms as and when political consensus can be reached on each of them, or put everything together into a "Reform or Bust" package with the risk nothing changes. I think the former is sensible, given Taiwan is a multi-party democracy.
9. No pure politics discussion unless it relates to:
(a) the prospects of North East Asian geopolitical stability; or
(b) the level of support for conscription duration,
please. Thus far, my focus is engaging in a technical discussion on soldiering and Taiwanese competence at executing urban defence TTPs at battalion level. This is not a domestic politics discussion, politics is mentioned by me only when it relates to defence.
10. President Tsai hasn't been a very good realist, as she has grossly misjudged the will of the Taiwanese youth to commit a year of their life to help the ROC Army regain some of its former military capabilities.
(a) While there is opposition by U.S. allies, like Australia, Europe, Japan and South Korea to China changing the Taiwan Straits status quo by force, the substance of China’s relationship with Europe, Thailand and the Philippines over their One China policy has not changed.
(b) America’s task is to balance power against China. That means strengthening its military alliances and economic positions. But it also means weakening China's ability to coerce America’s allies, including by degrading its ability to generate and use economic and military leverage.
11. Opinion polls show that KMT will struggle to gain national support, even though party's candidates swept local elections in Nov 2022. Given that KMT is unlikely to win the 2024 race for the next presidency, VP Lai Ching-te & chairman of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), is likely the next leader of Taiwan after President Tsai Ing-wen steps down. BTW, the next President will be inaugurated on 20 May 2024. VP Lai, is taking a standard DPP stance of trolling the CCP, in the hope that he can benefit politically in the 2024 Taiwan elections.
12. Taiwan extended Taiwan’s conscription fm 4 months to 12 months — the ROC Army is not ready to fight/deter the PLA by 2024, yet DPP politicians want to inch closer to war. Michael Hunzeker, explains the:
(a) type of reforms; &
(b) timelines,
needed for the Taiwan’s MND & the ROC Army to institute change management to move the needle; before it is too late.
13. The hostile bilateral relationship between Taipei & Beijing has created a security dilemma and encouraged a vicious cycle in great power relations between Beijing & Washington, that alarms Jakarta, Manila & their close partners. Details on the low key response, may I suggest that you search for details on these military exercises, including Supergarudashield & Kamandag.
