Conflict in Yemen

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member

Hone C

Member
The Hadi government, supported by the Saudi coalition began a major military offensive yesterday. There appears to be two axis' of advance.

From Marib, pro Hadi forces are advancing northwest, clearing along the N5 road corridor toward Sanaa. The media is citing tribal sources claiming Hazm has fallen, along with the al-Labnat military base near al-Hazm. This may be a screening force to protect the right flank of an advance on Sanaa, or a possible attempt to cut-off Sanaa from Saada prior to a push on the capital.

From Saudis Jizan province other troops have pushed south over the border, taking the town of Harad yesterday.

Yemen forces capture ground as fragile talks continue - BBC News
https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/negotiations-fall-apart-amid-renewed-violence
Yemen government forces capture northwestern city as peace talks go on | Reuters
 

Hone C

Member
Quick Update;

It seems as though the pro Hadi offensive that began a few days ago is making progress. The offensive from Marib is now moving on three axes. Hazm has been secured to protect the northern flank. The second is advancing through Nihm district directly towards Sanaa. Tribal sources told Reuters Hadi's forces have taken control of high ground in the Nihm district in Sanaa province, about 60 km north-east of the capital, while other sources place the troops only 40km from the city.
The third is to the south, through Khawlan. Coalition forces have laid siege to the town and are launching airstrikes on rebel positions.

Yemeni government forces push into province around capital - tribal sources | Reuters

There is currently a lull in fighting in the south around Taiz, according to pro-Hadi forces. This may indicate a redeployment of Houthi forces to defend Sanaa.

Pro-Hadi forces also launched a new attack in the vicinity of Buqa, possibly with the aim of preventing a similar redeployment of Houthi forces from the North.

The Houthi's have continued launching ballistic missiles into Saudi Arabia. Identified as surface-to-surface variants of the SA-2 SAM, they were destroyed by Saudi Patriot missile batteries.

Saudi forces shoot down missile as Yemen talks fizzle out | Middle East Eye
Saudis say shoot down Yemeni missile aimed at oil installations | Reuters
 

Belesarius

New Member
Saudi forces seem to be having a bad Christmas.

" The Saudi-led Coalition forces are having a bad Christmas as they have conceded several sites to the Yemeni Army’s Republican Guard and the Houthis over the course of 48 hours in Yemen’s southern countryside. Earlier today, the Yemeni Army’s Republican Guard – backed by their popular committees and the Houthis – imposed full control over Jabal Al-Shokal (Shoka Mountains) after an intense battle with the Saudi-led Coalition forces and the Hadi Loyalists in southern Yemeni province of Mareb."



I'm continually stunned by just how inept the Saudis are at war. You figure with the amount of $ and training by the American army that they've have at least figured out the basics by now. But I'm continually seeing videos of unsupported armor being smoked by ATGM teams. Oh and the ongoing Oshkosh MRAP genocide.
 

PO2GRV

Member
That is quite the reversal from just four days ago. We know the kingdom has deep pockets but this misadventure coupled with a self imposed oil glut must be incredibly demanding on the monarchys coffers

Somethins' gotta give

Also: Do you have a link to the source?
 

Belesarius

New Member
That is quite the reversal from just four days ago. We know the kingdom has deep pockets but this misadventure coupled with a self imposed oil glut must be incredibly demanding on the monarchys coffers

Somethins' gotta give

Also: Do you have a link to the source?
I'm too new. Won't let me post links yet.

Google Al Masdar News. Should be able to find it. Was posted on another forum I go to.



I understand the reasoning, but the restriction is annoying. The main place I hang out online motto is 'link or die'. :p
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I'm too new. Won't let me post links yet.

Google Al Masdar News. Should be able to find it. Was posted on another forum I go to.



I understand the reasoning, but the restriction is annoying. The main place I hang out online motto is 'link or die'. :p
To be honest, I generally follow the same rule, because I want to make it possible for someone to check my sources. However this measure is intended to avoid spammers, ad-bots, and general trolls.
 

Hone C

Member
I'm too new. Won't let me post links yet.

Google Al Masdar News. Should be able to find it. Was posted on another forum I go to.



I understand the reasoning, but the restriction is annoying. The main place I hang out online motto is 'link or die'. :p

I think this is the link you were referring to;

Yemeni Army, Houthis seize Jabal Al-Shoka outside strategic city of Taiz

The recent offensive action by the pro-Hadi coalition has been in the central Sanaa region (although the drive towards Sanaa seems to have stalled these last few days). The reports in the above link seem to imply that the Houthis have taken advantage of reduced pressure on the southern front to undertake offensive action there, around Taiz, where a lull in fighting was reported last week and assessed as being due to a northern redeployment of Houthi forces.

Attacks on southern Saudi provinces are also continuing, with raids by ground forces and another ballistic missile attack, intercepted according to state media, on Najran.

Claims have also emerged that the Saudis are pressuring tribes in the border regions to assist with combating the cross-border skirmishing, particularly those aligned with the Islah party. Though the Saudis consider Islah, a Muslim Brotherhood affiliate, to be a terrorist group, blacklisting it in March 2014, the current crisis has prompted them to attempt to co-opt the group as partners against the Houthis. How much success they have is doubtful, as the Islah leadership has previously told it's members to stay out of the fighting, as the government 'deserves to be overthrown'.
Just as with the rise of both ISIS and AQAP in Yemen as the civil war has developed I think there is the potential for massive blowback here. The Saudis may come to regret their intervention methinks.

Yemeni Army advances inside of Saudi Arabia as the Coalition Forces struggle to maintain ground
Saudi Arabia intercepts ballistic missile from Yemen: state news | Reuters
Pity those caught in the middle | The Economist
 

Hone C

Member
Yemeni Army advances inside of Saudi Arabia as the Coalition Forces struggle to maintain ground

I think this is the link

The site definitely has a lean but I'm not familiar enough to defend its reliability
Sorry, didn't see you had already posted the link. Have to agree with you about the source, haven't come across it before myself.

Kuwait possibly to extend it's involvement in the Yemen conflict with ground forces, having already committed aircraft to the coalition effort.
Reuters reported that Kuwait is deploying an artillery battalion to Saudi Arabia to defend against cross-border attacks by the Houthi's, citing the Kuwaiti daily al-Qabas. The Kuwaiti Foreign Ministry declined to comment.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-kuwait-yemen-security-idUSKBN0UC0HL20151229
 
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surpreme

Member
Feanor, do you know of any numbers, confirmed or unconfirmed, of,the numbers Guds and Houzballah forces that are there assisting the Houthis?

I've seen estimates of over 5000. I see this as the only way the Houthis continue to hold on

Thoughts?


U.S. Intelligence: Iran Sending More Fighters to Yemen
There are limited numbers of Iranian in Yemen. The main reason is because of supplies and manpower are hard to get to Yemen. Some have made it to Yemen but now Saudi Arabia Navy has a blockade around Yemen. The main forces who helping the Houthis are units of Yemen's Republican Guards and Paramilitary forces that where it's skilled forces are coming from. The rest are just armed civilian within the Houthis organization. The problem in Yemen you have different forces from within the Yemen Army who is fighting on both sides. It's out of controlled in Yemen you have Al-Qaeda still there and some unit have defected to them it a big mess in Yemen you have limited forces from Iran in Yemen not that many. It about the Iranian supply lines it non exsistence in Yemen without a supply line the Iranian are not going to last in Yemen.
 
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STURM

Well-Known Member
Highlights a Saudi need for persistent ISR. Seems to be a permissive airspace,
Unfortunately we're not getting the amount of news on Yemen that we'd like. Compared to months ago things have on the surface, quieten down. The question is whether the Saudis are any closer to gaining their political objectives or they just stuck in something they can't easily get out of? Another question that comes to mind is how the Houthis are getting restocks for their artillery and MLRS ammo given that the Saudis are making great efforts at sealing the coast and land border. No doubt there are probably tonnes of small arms and RPG reloads in the country [I recall reading somewhere that the Iraqis had something like 400,000 RPG reloads when then 2003 invasion kicked off] but I would have thought that they would have run out of heavy artillery and MLRS ammo by now.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Unfortunately we're not getting the amount of news on Yemen that we'd like. Compared to months ago things have on the surface, quieten down. The question is whether the Saudis are any closer to gaining their political objectives or they just stuck in something they can't easily get out of? Another question that comes to mind is how the Houthis are getting restocks for their artillery and MLRS ammo given that the Saudis are making great efforts at sealing the coast and land border. No doubt there are probably tonnes of small arms and RPG reloads in the country [I recall reading somewhere that the Iraqis had something like 400,000 RPG reloads when then 2003 invasion kicked off] but I would have thought that they would have run out of heavy artillery and MLRS ammo by now.
They haven't even run out of ballistic missiles. The Iranian resupply chain might be the reason. Or initial stocks were just huge, a lot of recipients of Soviet aid got ridiculous quantities of supplies.

Meanwhile cross-border Houthi raids continue.

Ðовые рейды хуÑитов в приграничных ÑаудовÑких провинÑÑÑ… Джизан и Ðаджран - Юрий ЛÑмин
 

Waylander

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
They also probably reserve their ballistic missile and MLRS rocket stocks for the occassional juicy target. One or two nice MLRS strikes a week wouldn't be too demanding for their logistics and could still inflict serious losses to an inept force like the Saudi one.

10% of GDP for their armed forces and the Saudis deliver that bad of a show...
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Kenneth Pollack's ''Arabs At War'' remains the most detailed account in English on the past performances of various Arab armies. He doesn't place the Saudi military in a very flattering light. In the chapter on Saudi Arabia he explains how the Saudi leadership knows that Uncle Sam is always there in case of a serious external threat and that there is a big worry about an external threat; which explains the focus placed on the Saudi Arabia National Guard and the policy of ensuring the Saudi Army and the Saudi Arabia National Guard had different equipment, to make it harder for both to coordinate a coup.

Given all the focus placed on the Saudi military this past decade and the threat [Saudi perceived] from Iran; it's interesting to speculate how much improvement the Saudi military has made since the 1980's and 1990's. Are they more capable [without Western assistance] of defending Saudi territory by themselves against [in a not very high tempo scenario] and have they made progress when it comes to maintaining all the high tech stuff they operate [without the assistance of foreign contractors]?

The role of the West in Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen | The Economist

Yemen?s guerrilla war tests military ambitions of big-spending Saudis

Can Saudi Arabia fight two wars at once? - BBC News

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ign-leaves-80-of-yemen-population-needing-aid
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Saudi Losses in Yemen War Exposed by US Tank Deal - Defense One

Article referencing press release about sale of 153 Abrams tanks to Saudi Arabia but indicates 20 were earmarked specifically as battle damage replacements showing SA losses may have been greater (and costlier) than initially thought
Well what with their most competent allies (UAE) pulling out, and them having to use Sudanese and Latin American mercenaries...

Meanwhile fresh footage of Houthis raiding the Saudis.

ХуÑиты у Ðаджрана - Юрий ЛÑмин
 
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