China Wants To Target US Aircraft Carriers

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tphuang

Super Moderator
@tphuang

"I'm just wondering, how do you know that they don't have a joint system set up between 2nd Artillery and PLAN regional commands?

As for the article itself, Pinkov just discredits himself with each new article he appears on. "




I’m not sure whether you are familiar with Sweden’s Kontoret för Särskild Inhämtning, or Office for Special Assignments in English, one primary focus since the early 2000’s has been the PLA on behalf of the European Defense Agency, special attention being given to missile components, electronics etc. as well as the ballistic missiles of 2nd Artillery. Speaking to a recently retired member of the KSI on this topic gave him fits of laughter because of reasons I have just specified, he mentioned that this would be an excellent example of psychological warfare to a) scare the US Navy b) force them to take countermeasures, just as the semi-mythical J-10 has succeeded as you are aware in justifying the need for additional F-22s to counter it when a AN/APG-63V retrofitted F-15C could do the job more than adequately. Back to the point, I too am not certain if there are datalinks and C&C procedures linking 2nd Artillery and Nanjing MR (most probable regional command) for the DF-21, but if any intelligence agency with a strong PRC HUMINT focus, especially KSI, believes so then I will take their word for it for they have far more than open source info.
I don't think APG-63 retrofitted F-15C would do the job adequately against J-10, but that's another story.

I have a lot of doubts about the entire ASBM scenario, but to say there isn't datalink and C&C between 2nd artillery and PLAN HQ is a little out there I think. PLA has spent a lot of money in the recent year to build a joint network. I'm kind of curious to know, did this guy know that there are at least 2 092s in service before the latest GE pictures?
 

Gripenator

Banned Member
I have a lot of doubts about the entire ASBM scenario, but to say there isn't datalink and C&C between 2nd artillery and PLAN HQ is a little out there I think. PLA has spent a lot of money in the recent year to build a joint network. I'm kind of curious to know, did this guy know that there are at least 2 092s in service before the latest GE pictures?
Agreed.

For the latter scenario do you mean Pinkov/Andrei Chang?

Investigative journalists are just one step removed from intelligence agents:)

They have their sources and contacts-in some ways they are even more important than actual agents as the human psyche regards "leaking" information" differently to selling it to an enemy agent-CNN is thus regarded as one of the premier sources of secondary info harvesting in the world. The PRC is one of the most intense info gathering hotspots in the world today-every major major (and minor ones too) have an interest in the rise of China-and there is no shortage of willing 'traitors' or 'whistle blowers' depending on your point of view.
 

tphuang

Super Moderator
Agreed.

For the latter scenario do you mean Pinkov/Andrei Chang?

Investigative journalists are just one step removed from intelligence agents:)

They have their sources and contacts-in some ways they are even more important than actual agents as the human psyche regards "leaking" information" differently to selling it to an enemy agent-CNN is thus regarded as one of the premier sources of secondary info harvesting in the world. The PRC is one of the most intense info gathering hotspots in the world today-every major major (and minor ones too) have an interest in the rise of China-and there is no shortage of willing 'traitors' or 'whistle blowers' depending on your point of view.
Well, we've seen just in the past day pictures of 3 new boomers on GE that are larger than the original 092. I'm just wondering if your contact knew that PLAN had that many going? Looking like either 3 094s or 092Gs.
 

Gripenator

Banned Member
Well, we've seen just in the past day pictures of 3 new boomers on GE that are larger than the original 092. I'm just wondering if your contact knew that PLAN had that many going? Looking like either 3 094s or 092Gs.
These GE images have also generated a massive commotion in the global naval intelligence community as well. I'm not sure if my countryman knew before hand but there is somewhat of a small persistent rumour that one of the two 092s reported "lost" in an accident was not lost but rather put in a covered submarine pen in the Bohai Sea and used as a mule for new propulsion and quieting technologies-ONI analysts are considering this theory to explain why exactly there are 3 subs on GE, only one 094 is known so far to have been launched-considering unusual visual similarity between the 092 class and 094.

I assume these SSBNs share the same design philosphy but my expertise is not in subs so maybe you can answer that.

If all else fails we can always ask Andrei Chang;)
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
1) Agreed. Though satellites are not the only option. Should also have as many ground, sea (especially submerged) & airborne sensors as you can afford.

2) Well, it's a pretty poor article in general. I'd think the logical type of warhead would be something that split into as many solid sub-warheads as possible, to maximise chances of hitting something (that's your big problem!), & to give the CBG defences the hardest possible job. Rely on kinetic energy to do damage.
I have found this discussion rather interesting and have a few thoughts on it.

Personally I do not believe the PRC (or the US for that matter) could achieve a direct hit with a conventional ballistic missile upon a mobile/maneuvering vessel. I think it likely that the level of maneuverability available to the BM would not be sufficient to compensate for the needed mid or terminal course corrections. That is not to say though that a BM-based system is not without some use vs. naval vessels.

Taking the above example of a USN CBG off Taiwan some 800 km from the coast of mainland China, moving at approximately 20 kts (~617 m/per minute). Assuming a speed of Mach 7, the PRC BM would take ~6 minutes to reach the point where the CBG was initially located, in which time the CBG would have moved ~3.7 km away from the point. That would mean the CBG would be located somewhere within a ~43 sq km circle of initial detection. Ignoring the roughly 500-600 m CEP of PRC ballistic missiles I do not believe the 3 minute window where the missile has started descending would allow for sufficient compenstation based on target movement.

Having said that, I think there is a technique potentially available which could make the tactic workable, as well as ease the burdens on C4ISR assets. It would work similar to Swerve's "buckshot - BIG buckshot;) " suggestion of area/block saturation. Instead of carrying solid/kinetic submunitions, have the BM serve as a delivery platform for short range, self-seeking AShM like Sea Skua or Penguin. In effect, the BM would extend the range available to such AShM, not unlike ASROC or Ikara did with shipborne torpedoes. A DF-21 could carry roughly 4 Sea Skua or close to 2 Penguin for instance.

Issues I see for such a system would be having the BM retard the delivery system sufficiently to allow for individual AShM deployment. Ensuring that the individual systems were robust enough to survive the trip aboard the BM (IIRC such a system can get exposed to 25+ Gs). Extrapolating the likely location of the CBG when the BM arrives in the area, and making sure the AShM are released within the correct range and vector to detect, target and reach the CBG.

The last potential issue is where I see a significant advantage over attempting a direct hit with a BM. The BM and C4ISR would no longer need to correctly extrapolate the location of something moving at 617 m/minute 6 minutes later or conduct course corrections moving at Mach 7/25+Gs and then get within the CEP. Incidentally the surface area taken up by a USN Nimitz-class CVN is ~3.25% of the potential impact area of a BM with a CEP of 500m against a stationary target... Instead, the BM would need arrive in a much less precise location, since AShM weapons like Penguin (~35 km) and Sea Skua (25km) have sufficient range to cover any distance caused by CEP variance and/or target movement. Given that the potential distance variance would be less than 5km I would imagine that would be no issue for the AShM seekers assuming they had the proper vector.

And while the ~50kg warhead of a Penguin or ~25kg warhead of a Sea Skua would not sink a carrier, it could potentially damage important systems or achieve a mission kill. Of equal potential importance is that 25 so equipped DF-21 launched together would likely overwhelm the area air defences of a CBG escorted by a Ticonderoga or Burke.

-Cheers
 
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crobato

New Member
Instead of carrying solid/kinetic submunitions, have the BM serve as a delivery platform for short range, self-seeking AShM like Sea Skua or Penguin. In effect, the BM would extend the range available to such AShM, not unlike ASROC or Ikara did with shipborne torpedoes. A DF-21 could carry roughly 4 Sea Skua or close to 2 Penguin for instance.
Assuming of course, you don't have gravity placement issues with regards to the liquid fuel on the AshM. Some liquid fueled antiship missiles probably don't like being stored vertically or launched down vertically as well. They may prefer to be horizontal. Of course, this is all fixable by modifying the AshM, or use a solid rocket fuel on the AshM.
 

Firehorse

Banned Member
And while the ~50kg warhead of a Penguin or ~25kg warhead of a Sea Skua would not sink a carrier, it could potentially damage important systems or achieve a mission kill. Of equal potential importance is that 25 so equipped DF-21 launched together would likely overwhelm the area air defences of a CBG escorted by a Ticonderoga or Burke.
-Cheers
I agree, and the Russians already claim that they had developed maneuverable warhead for their ICBMs to make it harder to destroy on reentry. So, theoreticly and most probably practicly it's possible to outfit SR/IRBMs with ASMs instead of regular HE (High Explosive) warheads. Also, as been noted on sinodefence forum treads, an EMP can mission kill entire CSG, even if it's location isn't precisely known.
 

McTaff

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
I agree, and the Russians already claim that they had developed maneuverable warhead for their ICBMs to make it harder to destroy on reentry. So, theoreticly and most probably practicly it's possible to outfit SR/IRBMs with ASMs instead of regular HE (High Explosive) warheads. Also, as been noted on sinodefence forum treads, an EMP can mission kill entire CSG, even if it's location isn't precisely known.
The logical extrapolation of that system is a AGM-154 (JSOW) style weapon launched via short range BM. As noted before, it is simply an extension of the Ikara/ASROC system for ASuW.

The JSOW theorum fits all the criteria - glide weapon, good range from high altitude, capable of IR terminal guidance, and variety of warheads (from multiple-munition shaped charge, to large multi-stage warheads). All that is required is the initial position (anything from recon aircraft to a submarine can provide this information), and the know-how to place that platform into the BM. The weight of the JSOW is bang on the 500kg payload capacity of the DF-15, and IIRC the DF-21 payload weight is slightly bigger than that.

I discard the idea only based on the idea that an AEGIS system would be able to engage the payload once it had slowed down to a manageable speed for the guidance to work.

--

As for your EMP attack, the idea of a non-nuclear e-bomb in this day and age is a scary thought. Knocking out air-search and fire-control radars for a follow-up airborne attack is probably the most likely scenario, as they are a nice exposed piece of electronic equipment, although they are specifically designed for high-power applications - I'm not qualified to comment on that type of thing.

Other than that, due to hardening, Faraday cage effects and the difficulty of landing the e-bomb on a moving fleet, it would probably do some moderate damage, but it is also likely the effect would be similar to that of stirring up a hornet nest in the event of a failure.

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The one thing that the article cited in the OP is that the US may have a carrier-based fleet in the vicinity, but flinging a couple of missiles at A CV battlegroup is a not-so-clever way to find a big ol' foot in the backside. A few score B-52's hitting PLA military targets a few days later is a pretty high price to pay for taking out a carrier battle group.

The United States have some pretty long arms with their carrier-based air wings and long-range strategic bombers. The PLA would potentially have to 'hold hostage' some of the region by threatening BM attacks on places like Hong Kong, Tokyo, Seoul and so on in an effort to stop US and Allied interference. This would not be wise, as Japan and South Korea are two of their largest and export and import markets, along with the US. Economically speaking, it would be suicide to do so.

The only other option is to threaten the age-old nuclear exchange, and this again opens up Pandoras Box.

I'm not sure what the original intent of the writer was, as the long term protracted outcome of such a non-nuclear conflict would likely prove economically difficult for The People's Republic, coupled with a politically unenviable position and the issues of having opened the doors for the US to lay munitions on their own soil. The repercussions of a nuclear conflict of that type is not worth considering according to most countries - a unilateral condemnation of these types of actions is enough to make even a crazed despot re-think what ramifications that could entail.

This is not a "US beats China hands down, man" arguement; I am simply pointing out that the plausibility (or lack thereof) is far outwieghed in any normal circumstance by the sheer oppressive nature of the backlash, both red vs. blue AND on a global socio-economic scale.
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Yes! this article confirms that new SSBNs will play a role in targeting aircraft carriers. Go to content, click on #20 "China sub force.."
Sub-reliance

Without reading the article I can tell you that its probably wrong.

SSBN's don't hack Carriers. SSN's do.

An SSBN (esp the PLANs SSBN's) are large and less manouvreable. Acoustically (and in the PLANs case) SSBN's are noisier than SSN's.

Sending an SSBN do hack a carrier when the CTF has at least one SSN riding shotgun is just plain stupid.

edit.

Good grief. I just read it.

the follow on comment by a Hong Kong newspaper about the decibel difference between a Seawolf and a Shang is just abject nonsense.
 

tphuang

Super Moderator
Without reading the article I can tell you that its probably wrong.

SSBN's don't hack Carriers. SSN's do.

An SSBN (esp the PLANs SSBN's) are large and less manouvreable. Acoustically (and in the PLANs case) SSBN's are noisier than SSN's.

Sending an SSBN do hack a carrier when the CTF has at least one SSN riding shotgun is just plain stupid.

edit.

Good grief. I just read it.

the follow on comment by a Hong Kong newspaper about the decibel difference between a Seawolf and a Shang is just abject nonsense.
yet, you got a bunch of people jumping on trash like that. (same with the J-10/Iran story) Shows you how out of control this China fear is.
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
yet, you got a bunch of people jumping on trash like that. (same with the J-10/Iran story) Shows you how out of control this China fear is.

the quality of journalism on both sides has been a bit tragic at times...

the danger of "beat ups" is that they can migrate to self fulfilling prophecies via their own momentum....
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
SSBN doesn't have to find & track CV/Ns. some other platform can send it targeting data, from 100s miles away!
For goodness sake. There is a reason why SSBN's and SSN's do dissimilar jobs.

A chinese SSBN at an acoustic level is akin to an underwater girls marching band at a noise geneation level. Thats why you have SSNs
 

Firehorse

Banned Member
Well, then even noisy SSBNs, escorted by SSNs/SSKs, can unleash a few BMs from several 100s miles away, or even from another sea- towards CSG/TF- at least one of the boomers will be able to do that- before SSN hunter-killers stop them, if any are close by.
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Well, then even noisy SSBNs, escorted by SSNs/SSKs, can unleash a few BMs from several 100s miles away, or even from another sea- towards CSG/TF- at least one of the boomers will be able to do that- before SSN hunter-killers stop them, if any are close by.
You could stick a small thermonuke on a passenger jet - its just as viable and "do-able" as what you are proposing as a tactical event using a chinese SSBN.

You are however not demonstrating any comprehension as to why SSBN's are lurkers and their importance as strikers and respondents.

The first boats killed are the SSBN's, thats why they're hacked, thats why effort is spent tracking and hacking. As soon as any SSBN starts to go through launch behaviour sequences, its life at that point is thin. Add up how many SSBN's the PLAN has - then add up how many SSN's your potential enemy has. An SSN that is faster, more manouvreable, quieter and able to kill at long range if necessary.

You obviously want to see them as being able to undertake this mission and thus devalue their proper role under some notion of demonstrating a threat to the carrier. But in absolute clinical terms - it's ridiculous. Feel free to keep on thinking along such lines.
 

Firehorse

Banned Member
Not only I think along such lines- but thanks for your permission!
..it is likely that the North Koreans, if they do have an operational missile carrying submarine, will adapt a variant of the bastion defense. The probable operational deployment will be to deploy the Golf class submarines into a coastal area where the water is shallow and rapidly moving in order to take advantage of the horrendous sonar conditions. Slightly further out, mine barriers backed by the Foxtrot class submarines will be employed to keep US, South Korean and potentially Japanese submarines from easily entering the bastion. Land based fighters and SAMS would be employed to discourage/shoot down US and South Korean anti-submarine aircraft.
The goal of this strategy is not to threaten the United States directly. Instead it is to preserve a credible nuclear detterent against a potential US first strike against the landbased nuclear missiles that North Korea most likely already has. The submarines would most likely survive a first strike and be able to launch against Seoul, Tokyo or Okwinawa where the US has significant military forces and equipment. Yes, doing so would bring overwhelming nuclear retaliation from the United States, but this credible threat would create a very strong incentive for the South Korean government to counsel against a pre-emptive first strike. http://festersplace.blogspot.com/2004_08_01_festersplace_archive.html#109171792630743774
Why China can't do with its SSBNs what N Korea can with its Golf II, i.e. protect them in bastions and use them to strike both land & sea targets? Just because it never been tried before?

“Several Chinese advances have surprised U.S. defense and intelligence officials, and raised questions about the quality of our assessments of China’s military capabilities,” the commission report said.
“China’s defense industry is producing new generations of weapons platforms with impressive speed and quality, and these advancements are due in part to the highly effective manner in which Chinese defense companies are integrating commercial technologies into military systems,” the report said.
China also could launch up to 10 new Shang-class nuclear attack submarines by next year.
The Jin submarine, also known as the Type 094, is a new class of ballistic missile submarine. It was first photographed in the water in late 2006 moored in Xiaopingdao Submarine Base.
The submarine is believed to be equipped with 12 advanced JL-2 SLBMs with a range of about 8,000 kilometers.
“Industrial espionage provides Chinese companies an added source of new technology without the necessity of investing time or money to perform research.”
http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2007/ea_china_11_21.asp

“If the Americans draw their missiles and position (sic: "precision")-guided ammunition on to the target zone on China’s territory, I think we will have to respond with nuclear weapons,” the official, Major General Zhu Chenghu, said at an official briefing Thursday.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/07/15/news/china.php
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Not only I think along such lines- but thanks for your permission!
I'm glad you understand sarcasm...

Why China can't do with its SSBNs what N Korea can with its Golf II, i.e. protect them in bastions and use them to strike both land & sea targets? Just because it never been tried before?
Because unlike the numerous articles that you always fall back on to try and support your vision of the PLANs capability - there has to be some reality attached,

eg, any fool can look at the design of the Shang and realise that there are some acoustic transmission issues that jump out of the photographs. So when I see articles promoting their acoustic superiority and comparability to current designs - then it just reinforces that the journalists promoting those concepts are clueless.

You obviously think that the PLAN has the ability to undertake missions which are not only impractical but fail to pass the sanity test on a number of other factors. Thats fine by me. I'm not going to try and convince you otherwise. But having been involved in some of these areas wrt to underwater defence technology I'm a bit more confident that I've got a better working appreciation of the pitfalls than some of the commentary that you are presenting as a vehicle of credibility.

the capability to wage effective and coherent warfare is more than just the excited teenagers lust for a shiny new platform where they have "nn" numbers of them and that denotes latent if not implied superiority.
 

Firehorse

Banned Member
So, in your expert view, could the Soviets with their noisy subs execute a
2nd strike against NATO/US, yes or no?
 
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