China Naval Modernization (Implications for US Naval Capabilities)

[PhillTaj]

I highly doubt that China will instigate a naval arms race with the US. The Communist leadership is resisting the idea of building a true blue water navy. China cannot win such an arms race. Remember, even by 2025 China's real GDP will still only be 30 percent of the GDP of the United States (sorry to bring economics into it again, but I feel that it is relavent:smash ) and this is barring any sort of economic downturn in China itself. China probably could have had the Varyag operational by now.....lacking an air wing of course, but still sailing. I believe that China thinks that by operating a carrier, it will spark an arms race it can't hope to win against the USN and to a lesser extent, the Japanese Maritime Self Defense Force.

China is increasingly looking towards submarines to counter the overwhelming maritime might of the USN, but even in this critical arm they are lacking. They have the worst subsurface safety record in the world, and horrible crews. The Yuan class, their latest boat, can at best be used in the sea denial role. China is going to increasingly rely on Russia for advanced submarines. We are already seeing this trend coming to fruition with the purchase of kilo boats instead of the local Song class. The USN for their part, are making advances in anti-submarine warfare.

Some of you are making the argument that the PLAN is trying to achieve a blue water capability through their latest acquisitions. I however, think that the new capabilities are only intended for a coastal sea-denial capability that is useless in the open ocean. Also, remember that China has made almost no advances in a fleet replenishment and support capability. China is also utterly lacking any sort of effective guidance capability for its anti-ship cruise missiles. Its ASM technology still reflects the 1970s.

I just do not see a credible threat arising from the PLAN.

 

[tphuang]

Sorry PhillTaj, you are absolutely wrong here. If you really want to compare GDP, you should look at the country's PPP. And China's PPP is more than half of America's PPP right now. And also, with the possible revaluation of Yuan, the GDP will also rise that way.

As for subs, I don't know where you got "they have the worst subsurface safety record" from, ever heard of Russia?

The Yuan is designed to be better than the improved Kilo. So, the part about China relying on Russian for advanced submarine is not true. If Yuan meets its original standards, then you are unlikely to see China purchasing another Russian SSK. As for kilo and Song, you are wrong even more here. China has a huge old sub force that it needs to replace. Kilo and Song are different types of subs. Just check their displacement. In fact, there are 12-14 Songs as we speak and they are being built at 2-3 a year. Kilo on the hand, it's stopping at 12. I'm not saying that PLAN poses a credible threat to USN, but that your assessment is incorrect.

 

[PhillTaj]

Sorry PhillTaj, you are absolutely wrong here. If you really want to compare GDP, you should look at the country's PPP. And China's PPP is more than half of America's PPP right now. And also, with the possible revaluation of Yuan, the GDP will also rise that way.

As for subs, I don't know where you got "they have the worst subsurface safety record" from, ever heard of Russia?

The Yuan is designed to be better than the improved Kilo. So, the part about China relying on Russian for advanced submarine is not true. If Yuan meets its original standards, then you are unlikely to see China purchasing another Russian SSK. As for kilo and Song, you are wrong even more here. China has a huge old sub force that it needs to replace. Kilo and Song are different types of subs. Just check their displacement. In fact, there are 12-14 Songs as we speak and they are being built at 2-3 a year. Kilo on the hand, it's stopping at 12. I'm not saying that PLAN poses a credible threat to USN, but that your assessment is incorrect.

I got my GDP statement from a Pentagon report? Im talking real GDP, not purchasing power.

Right now, from what I've seen the Yuan class, like so many other Chinese domestic hopefuls, is already outdated, but yes, the export kilo. As I understand it, its hiding and attack capabilities are less advanced. Song should have been cancelled, I highly doubt that the PLAN have worked out the Song's problems? The PLAN will rely on its kilos for all its non-sea denial missions. The Song relies on 1980 era technology, but I have heard that China has been fitting capable foreign sonars on to them.

Misunderstanding on the submarine safety record, but currently the PLAN has the worst record, they lost a submarine last year did they not? I know fires are a regular occurence on PLAN boats. One boat has also been completely disabled at sea recently.

 

[rickusn]

Phil dont waste your breath.

According to all the Naval Discussion boards(5),that I am now in the process of erasing from my computers memory including this one, that I have contributed to, much to my chagrin, have already fought WWIII and the U.S. and its allies have been ttally destroyed by the superior technology of China and Russia.

LOL

Why have I ever bothered.

Only U.S. bashing is allowed and tolerated.

Its an internet fantasy world where no objective, factual, realistic data is needed or wanted.

Good Bye

 

[Francois]

This statement from rickusn sadden me, but is not very surpring in the actual trend all around the Net.
"Pseudo-nationalist experts" are just closing the debates everywhere, and knowledgeable people are just erading like never.

I guess the game is getting over, no more debate, no more dicussion.
And this is not characteristic of THIS forum, unfortunatly.

Sad, so sad. But there is no issue.

 

[wp2000]

I got my GDP statement from a Pentagon report? Im talking real GDP, not purchasing power.

Right now, from what I've seen the Yuan class, like so many other Chinese domestic hopefuls, is already outdated, but yes, the export kilo. As I understand it, its hiding and attack capabilities are less advanced. Song should have been cancelled, I highly doubt that the PLAN have worked out the Song's problems? The PLAN will rely on its kilos for all its non-sea denial missions. The Song relies on 1980 era technology, but I have heard that China has been fitting capable foreign sonars on to them.

Misunderstanding on the submarine safety record, but currently the PLAN has the worst record, they lost a submarine last year did they not? I know fires are a regular occurence on PLAN boats. One boat has also been completely disabled at sea recently.

I agree with your main point. If china wants to have an arm race with US, there's no hope.

Just a minor correction, contrary to common belief outside china, Song's serial production started from 2002, now 14 have been built and in service.

Also, in the last 20 years, china lost one sub in 2003, not last year. IIRC, they lost 2-3 boats in their whole history (less than 50 years) of operating subs. Not a good record, but I don't know whether that's the worst record or not.

And obviously you were told that a boat was on fire recently (this year right?), but that boat was actually doing a fire drill. I can understand why you didn't know the truth, since I noticed the development of that event as well. Originally it was a shocking news and quite a few newspaper reported it. But when the truth was unveiled, only several of them had some very brief reports. Quite normal, isn't it? But most people would still think that one boat was on fire.

Or maybe you mixed up the British built Canadian sub?

 

[PhillTaj]

I agree with your main point. If china wants to have an arm race with US, there's no hope.

Just a minor correction, contrary to common belief outside china, Song's serial production started from 2002, now 14 have been built and in service.

Also, in the last 20 years, china lost one sub in 2003, not last year. IIRC, they lost 2-3 boats in their whole history (less than 50 years) of operating subs. Not a good record, but I don't know whether that's the worst record or not.

And obviously you were told that a boat was on fire recently (this year right?), but that boat was actually doing a fire drill. I can understand why you didn't know the truth, since I noticed the development of that event as well. Originally it was a shocking news and quite a few newspaper reported it. But when the truth was unveiled, only several of them had some very brief reports. Quite normal, isn't it? But most people would still think that one boat was on fire.

Or maybe you mixed up the British built Canadian sub?

God dammit, I thought the essays in The National Interest would have more accurate information!

And I dont want to be reminded of the Victoria's problems lol.
I know that a substantial number of songs have been built, but from a historical perspective, Chinese produced platforms are rarely severe problem free, even in mass production.

I have also noticed that alot of boards have nationalistic elements. I've even read posts where Indian nationalists state that once the ATV becomes operational, the IN will be able to beat the USN causalty free!

 

[Whiskyjack]

From what I have read, and I am no means an expert in this area, the PLAN main strategy is based on the facts before them.

1 Be capable of taking Taiwan, this provides leverage for negotiations in the future.

2 As the US has indicated that they will defend Taiwan, the PLAN has also added the capability to deter USN operations around Taiwan to achieve the above point.

Let me be clear on this, I am not saying that armed conflict is the main game here of either China or the US. However a military is the one arm of a countries power, along with economic and political. It is natural and right for a military to train and equip in a way that will best defend its national interests as their Govt sees it.

The modernisation of the PLAN will raise the risk for the USN to operate around that area and that is something that always has to be factored in. It will also mean that greater forces will be needed in the future.

I am also fascinated by the following observation by a PLAN officer (sorry can’t remember where I read it that went basically like this).

If the PLAN has 80% of it’s naval strength destroyed but takes Taiwan who will have won?

 

[hesidu]

Frankly speeking, China Navy's yuan class SSK is not advanced in technical aspect, comparing to the outstanding SSK of westen countries. But it meets the China's national strategy -- protecting national security. As China is not a country which is seeking for world wide power, there is no need of those sharped tooth.

 

[PhillTaj]

Frankly speeking, China Navy's yuan class SSK is not advanced in technical aspect, comparing to the outstanding SSK of westen countries. But it meets the China's national strategy -- protecting national security. As China is not a country which is seeking for world wide power, there is no need of those sharped tooth.

I'll agree with you there. I highly doubt it that China will ever attempt to challenge the USN ship for ship, capability to capability.

Really, I just see China expanding to the point where it can secure its SLOC's-but only to a certain extent. The PLAN is currently being eclipsed by India naval wise, and the Chinese cannot afford to deterr the IN while at the same time confronting the USN, JMSDF, Taiwanese Navy, etc.

Its a lose lose situation.

 

[hesidu]

It's hard to explain China's international policy which is involved in national security and taiwan strait to a westerner, since there is large cultural gap between the west and east. I suggest you to get some knowledge of China's classic tactics.

 

[Crusader2000]

I believe many consider China's Naval Modernization as a threat. Esp. the US, Japan, and Taiwan. Further, many other nearby countries are also modernizing there respect of Navy's. Which, will (is) leading to a Asian Arms Race.

 

[Crusader2000]

It's hard to explain China's international policy which is involved in national security and taiwan strait to a westerner, since there is large cultural gap between the west and east. I suggest you to get some knowledge of China's classic tactics.

Well, I guess it works both ways? Which, is to bad for all parties..............

 

[webmaster]

This statement from rickusn sadden me, but is not very surpring in the actual trend all around the Net.
"Pseudo-nationalist experts" are just closing the debates everywhere, and knowledgeable people are just erading like never.

I guess the game is getting over, no more debate, no more dicussion.
And this is not characteristic of THIS forum, unfortunatly.

Sad, so sad. But there is no issue.

The trend around the net is that no body likes to admit that they are wrong and it is not just the naval discussions or defence, it is like that on every topic that you can discuss. Thanks to the information available to everyone on the net everybody has some type of answer, which makes things more complicated.

Of course, those who have served in the military hold upper hand and much much accurate information than anything available on the internet and my suggestion to our military friends would be to give your opinion based on what they observed and experienced and not let the kids make you feel like you are not contributing anything as far as discussions are concerned. As we all know it, majority of the people read and they appreciate what you have to say.

Rick, US bashing? Please PM me links to posts so we can take care of it. Many of our moderators are away (holidays, exams, out of town, etc.) these days and I am busy as well with the newborn.

 

[hesidu]

I believe many consider China's Naval Modernization as a threat. Esp. the US, Japan, and Taiwan. Further, many other nearby countries are also modernizing there respect of Navy's. Which, will (is) leading to a Asian Arms Race.

I'm depressed to find that many guys in this site is trend to neglecting Chinese people's feeling. In our point of view, China's naval modernization is for the national security. You can 't imagine that those Ming type of SSK can protect the coastal security. So it is essential and urgent.

 

[Crusader2000]

I'm depressed to find that many guys in this site is trend to neglecting Chinese people's feeling. In our point of view, China's naval modernization is for the national security. You can 't imagine that those Ming type of SSK can protect the coastal security. So it is essential and urgent.

I was simply expressing a opinion. Personally, I have no negative feelings towards China and surely not for its people. The issue here has more to do with misunderstandings! In my opinion China would be better served to have more of a defensive Military. Maybe something along the lines of the JSDF. Also, from a political stand point. She needs to get more involved in international security and/or peace keeping operations. (i.e. Iraq, Afghanistan, Bosnia, etc.) From the West's and RIMPAC point of view modernization of her Military with talk of Aircraft Carriers. Plus basing surface to surface missiles and aircraft right across from Taiwan. Only causes others to wonder of China's true attentions?????

 

[hesidu]

I was simply expressing a opinion. Personally, I have no negative feelings towards China and surely not for its people. The issue here has more to do with misunderstandings! In my opinion China would be better served to have more of a defensive Military. Maybe something along the lines of the JSDF. Also, from a political stand point. She needs to get more involved in international security and/or peace keeping operations. (i.e. Iraq, Afghanistan, Bosnia, etc.) From the West's and RIMPAC point of view modernization of her Military with talk of Aircraft Carriers. Plus basing surface to surface missiles and aircraft right across from Taiwan. Only causes others to wonder of China's true attentions?????

I have mentioned before that China has her own military tactics and strategy. Of cause, It is one of China's national security strategy to stop taiwan breaking off from China. However I think those surface to surface missiles which is target at Taiwan should repealed. Chinese mainland should use her "soft power" instead of "military muscle", since it is more acceptable.

 

[tonbo]

indeed . resorting to open military action would be the least appealing and most difficult to justify , since China had suffered exactly that frm its neighbours Japan and Tsarist Russia / later Stalinist Soviet Union ( border skirmishes with Russia & the whole Manchurian affair that lead up to and eventually became the sino-japanese war ) . however i have been told that if not for involvement in the Korean War , China's own civil war might have lasted far longer . war is nasty and that's the nicest thing i can say abt it .

i'd rather there be a strong PLAN raised on the virtues of war and of peace than a PLAN that is backward and under-funded , giving it reason to engage in activities akin to privateering .

modelling itself after the JSDF , JMSDF , might not be so bad , since the JSDF are true professionals . sadly the current political climate has resulted in scant interaction between the two counterparts

abt the incident with the SSK that lost its entire crew to carbon monoxide(?) poisoning just becuz someone forgot to open the vents when it surfaced to recharge its batteries . the ship was in good order and all the crew died at their stations or while carrying out their duties onboard ship . a freak incident , it was deemed .

when US key interests abroad face imminent dangers , it's military can be called upon to take apropriate action if necessary . China on the other hand still cannot do so , despite its interests spanning the globe now ...

 

[tphuang]

I got my GDP statement from a Pentagon report? Im talking real GDP, not purchasing power.

Right now, from what I've seen the Yuan class, like so many other Chinese domestic hopefuls, is already outdated, but yes, the export kilo. As I understand it, its hiding and attack capabilities are less advanced. Song should have been cancelled, I highly doubt that the PLAN have worked out the Song's problems? The PLAN will rely on its kilos for all its non-sea denial missions. The Song relies on 1980 era technology, but I have heard that China has been fitting capable foreign sonars on to them.

Misunderstanding on the submarine safety record, but currently the PLAN has the worst record, they lost a submarine last year did they not? I know fires are a regular occurence on PLAN boats. One boat has also been completely disabled at sea recently.

purchasing power is a better indicator than GDP. Let's put it this way, it cost 4 times as much to develop software in silicon valley compared to Ontario, Canada. Do you honestly think you can get the same dollar in America as you do in China?

I'm not going to sit here and say there isn't a gap between China and the Western world. There is. But you've been stating a lot of stuff without any kind of evidence.

For a comprehensive idea of China's sub force, check this article by Richard Fisher
http://www.strategycenter.net/research/pubID.83/pub_detail.asp
"The PLAN now has about 12 to 14 modern Type 039 SONG attack submarines and recently expanded production of this type to a second shipyard, that could support annual production of 2 to 3. The Type 039 has benefited from some foreign assistance, including Israeli electronic and design assistance, German diesel engines and very likely, German design assistance to correct the Israeli assistance. It incorporates modern quieting technology like a 7-blade skewed propeller, anechoic tiling, and is equipped with extensive digital command and sonar processing equipment, and is armed with the YJ-81Q, and perhaps the YJ-82Q anti-ship missile."
"But in 2004 the PLAN launched the first of its new YUAN class, which bears a suspicious resemblance to Russia’s new Project 677 LADA class SSK. Inasmuch as the 677 incorporates improved crew-reducing automation, better sonar, and in the future, AIP systems, it can be surmised that the YUAN may benefit from all these technologies. This analyst estimates that by 2010 the PLAN could possess at least 35 new and far more capable SSKs."

As for the attacking capabilities of these subs, Song has the ability to fire 120 KM AShM missiles and anti-radiation missiles. 636M has the ability to fire 220 KM supersonic sea-skimming missile, shkval torpedoe and SAM. Yuan has the ability t handle the same missiles as 636M. I don't see what's weak about that.

As we've shown already, your statement toward a lack of safety for Chinese subs is completely groundless. It's true that quality has not been a trademark of Chinese products in the past, but it is getting much better now. China produces parts for airbus and Boeing and will get a assembly line setup for A320 in a few years. If the quality is not up to standard, these things will not be possible. China is the world's 3rd largest shipbuilder and approaching a 3-way tie with Japan and South Korea. If the quality is not up to par, then other countries would not be buying its ships. As I said, you can't say just because China had a bad safety record for ships 20 years ago, it will have a bad safety record for the next 10 years.

To Rickusn, don't make a judgement for everyone just by some nationalists. If any of my statement is unreasonable, feel free to point them out.

Crusader2000, maybe you should tell the same thing to InN?

 

[Francois]

The trend around the net is that no body likes to admit that they are wrong and it is not just the naval discussions or defence, it is like that on every topic that you can discuss. Thanks to the information available to everyone on the net everybody has some type of answer, which makes things more complicated. ... Rick, US bashing? Please PM me links to posts so we can take care of it. Many of our moderators are away (holidays, exams, out of town, etc.) these days and I am busy as well with the newborn.

Dear WebMaster,
The fault is not you or this forum. RickUSN and Jeff are only examples.
It is more generally. Internet present trend.
Nobody respects nothing and basta.
So now, the few knowledgeable people are leaving, and I can't blame them.
When I see what Rick or Jeff have done, and one or more small guy comes and throw it all overboard, it is just that.
The pseudo-nationalistic feelings are enveniming any if not all discussion.
I haven't seen my country for months (years) but I don't boast myself each time a discussion goes by.

So now, let's the kids play their game!