Arms race: Greece & Turkey

[beleg]

Ok ok ok

So a JSF piloted plane will beat a Viper piloted plane.

Maybe Turkey won't even join the EU - but I think that because they are in the process of doing it that there won't be any type of war between them and Greece. How could that possibly help their PR with the EU?

I say that Turkey would go against Israel because previously weren't they involved in wars against Israel? If I'm wrong on that, then I'm sorry and take it back.

Canada and the JSF - we'll get it, but probably not until 2020 when our Hornets life is over. Maybe in the interim we'll get Super Hornets, who knows?

Pound her demands towards the Hellenic Forces? Perhaps you mean that they'll be able to fly unnoticed over Greek air space which would clearly be in violation of the rules at play in this scenario. If Turkey does do that, it'd be the biggest :nutkick that Greece will have dealt to them.

That might result in war or it could result in something else, who knows?

Regardless of what rationale you put towards the scenario, the idea that these two countries would go to war against each other is somewhat silly. There, I said it...silly.

These are the thoughts of a Canadian who has been stuck in 100 degree heat drinking not Canadian beer but lemon water for the last week.

Attila

Turkey is the first muslim state to recognise Israel. We have strong military ties and interests with Israel in the region. Many could claim Turkey , USA and Israel will make a vendetta against Iran not the other way around..

There wont be war between Turkey and Greece as long as the EU talks go on like planned. Our bilatteral issues will be solved before Turkey assesion which is very likely not before 2015.
Canadian summers are hot in south , maybe you should more a bit north..

 

[410Cougar]

Beleg,

Thanks for the quick history lesson, I appreciate it. To anyone who I upset with my total lack of knowledge on this subject I apologize. I have alot more learning to do when it comes to the history of the world as we now know it.

Our North is actually quite warm as well. There are Inuits who live up there year round and while it does get cold it also gets warm. Maple Flag, an international Exercise held out of CFB Cold Lake, has seen exceptionally warm temperatures lately. That also has to do with their geographic location next to the mountains.

Either way, we both love our countries and that is what matters the most!

Cheers to everyone, and once again, thanks for the lesson.

Attila

 

[beleg]

Cool, didnt know about the warm Canadian summers.. We all learn stuff dont we

 

[410Cougar]

Edwards, Air National Guard combine efforts to upgrade F-16

By Christopher Ball -- 95th Air Base Wing Public Affairs

June 1/06 -- EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- While many Airmen were demonstrating their ability to survive and operate in a hostile environment at Camp Corum during the recent Operational Readiness Exercise, a group of testers here were busy demonstrating another facet of the Air Force Flight Test Center’s wartime mission.

Members of the 416th Flight Test Squadron worked closely with the Air National Guard Air Force Reserve Command Test Center in Tucson, Ariz., to conduct accelerated developmental testing of the Block 30 F-16 Software Capability Upgrade 6 (SCU-6). Block 30 F-16 aircraft are used by Air National Guard, Air Force Reserve and active Air Force units. The SCU-6 upgrade will improve many aspects of the aircraft’s warfighting capabilities, to include its survivability, weapons capacity and weapons’ effectiveness.

“Basically, the payload of Joint Directed Attack Munition that the aircraft can carry has been doubled.” said Maj. John Kruzinauskas, chief of warfighter integration capability for the Air National Guard. “We’ve also upgraded to the AIM-9X dynamic launch zone, enabling more accurate and effective engagements, and more stand-off range.”

According to Steve Salas, the acting test acceleration project manager, the ORE test acceleration allowed the team to sharpen its business processes, testing and planning skills as well as obtain an increased resource priority for the program.

“All the time and effort expended on this exercise allows us to hone our skills for real-world requirements.” Mr. Salas said. During a normal program, an execution rate of eight sorties per month is the norm; however, the AATC deployment portion of SCU-6 testing consisted of approximately 20 sorties in eight days.

“Many team members put in 12-hour work days to meet the aggressive flying schedule, overall everything went extremely well.” said Mr. Salas.

First Lt. John Whichelow, the deputy program manager, said “There was a lot of teamwork and cooperation between the Edwards and Tucson personnel to make this happen.”

Flights are only a portion of the test planning. Capt. Michael Dostie, an operations engineer with the 416th FLTS, was responsible for looking at the test objectives, determining the resources needed and putting together the flight schedule. “Resources included ranges, control rooms, frequency allocations, weapons requirements and aircrews.” he said.

To support the test, a group of more than 24 maintainers and engineers from the AATC, along with two aircraft, deployed to Edwards, Mr. Salas said.

Major Kruzinauskas emphasized that the Block 30 F-16, although primarily used by the Guard and Reserve, is not just a Guard jet. “We support the ‘Whole Air Force’ concept. These aircraft are out there flying Homeland Defense, Operation Enduring Freedom and Operation Iraqi Freedom” Major Kruzinauskas said.


I couldn't find it in the article or in any other pieces that I have on the subject, but any idea what Block these modernisations would make Block 30's into? Would it be a viable option for Greece and Turkey to extend the life of the Vipers that they have already?

 

[beleg]

Dear cougar,
as you know different blocks of F-16s have different capabilities. With the CCIP program USA aims to bring the capabilities of its and its allies Vipers to a standard level in terms of operational capability. Turkey has already signed a deal with USA (USAF and LM via FMS funds) and will modernise the Vipers in Turkey. While blok50s and 40s will receive the most extentive upgrade (new radar-v9,avionics,mission comp,stand off missiles/bombs, aim9x,aim120c,jhmcs,link16,hts,liteningIII pods etc),blk 30s not only have the most flight hours of all Turkish Vipers but they also have a weaker engine and thus less payload carrying capability hence they will receive only a limited upgrade (mainly a-a, TuAF does not plan to use them for a-g afaik)

These planes receiving the modernisation will have the same operational capabilities of latest batch of Vipers of USAF. These modernisations will extend the service life of F-16s well beyond 2020s.

I am sure being an important Viper user Greece will go thru a similar procedure for her blk50s/30s.

 

[hot222]

For the History, comparing numbers in military world it's not the most important thing. Not even if an aircraft have greater abilities than another. It is impossible to find the stronger between the 2, in a case of a total war. Stategic, tactics, support, resources, dare, etc. are also very important factors. Only in-depth knowledge of all these can give a clue of which is the "real" balance.

 

[ComSec]

It seems that the new Hellenic defence procurement (EMPAE) program currently under approval will confirm our fears of intensified armes race in the region. Though not official yet the call for a ~23bnEuros of procurements is likely to see Greece spend an annual average of 7-8bnEuros (including payements for earlier weapon acquisitions) for the following decade. Some of the major items include : ~8 transport helicopters with option for 12+12 over the 10 year horizon (total estimated value ~1bn$), 2 SOF helicopters (88m$), new AD units (600m$, most likely Patriot PAC3), around 15 CSAR helicopters (250m$), 1bn$ worth of missiles and PGM, additional C-27 (90m$), M-2000 upgrades (89m$), upgrade of old F-16 (180m$), F-4 upgrades at a cost of 174m$, 5 MPA (300m$), additional S-70B (150m$), and this is just a fraction of the list of approximately 490 major acquisition programs. On top of that we should include the latest information about the 4th generation fighter likely to materialise in stages (starting with around 20-30 units initially and procuring additional units in the long term).

 

[beleg]

Greeks have already upgraded their F-4s (under programme with Germany named Peace Icarus). I dont see why they should spend more into these planes who will at best serve another decade.
The most important in the latest EMPAE is the acqusition programme of new Frigates (possibly FREMM), 4th gen fighter (Rafale?) , and adding AIP ability to their Type 209s, other than these the items you wrote are also very important for them. They will acquire more Pzh2000 probably since USA didnt allow Germans to transfer a hundred of M-109A5s.. They are interested in the German Puma to accompany Leo2A6s. They recently bought 12 more AH-64Ds with 4 longbow radars.

OTOH,
Turkey has recently cancelled the modernisation of remaining F-4s which raises the need to replace at least 2 sq aircraft within 5 yrs at maximum. There is also a shortage of airplanes due to attrition loss of F-16s and soon they will enter CCIP which will mean more planes (exp the newer blk50s) will be withdrawn from service. When you put all these together Turkey will need at least 30-40 aircraft in service within 5 years to maintain balance with Greece. So we either acquire some F-16s (new/used?/lease?) or EF-2000s (TI lease?/TII?) since its too early for F-35.

The tenders for AIP subs (probably 214s like Greece), AD missiles (S300?/Patriot PAC3?), Heavy trasport helos ,Attack and Recon Helo (Mangusta/Tiger?/Roovivalk) and most important of all the new gen combat aircrafts tenders summing upto 100-120 aircraft from 2015s (F-35/EF-2000/both?) will be probably either decided or announced this year. Already 50+ units of T-155 (K-9) SpH have been delivered and more are on the way..

The local industry is designing the ambitious programs of national corvet , national tank.The ATAK tender will likely include Turkish mission computer and Turkish avionics and electronics (FLIR,RWR,MWR,EW,chaff,flare etc.) a first in the countries defence industry.

So its true that the waters are warming in the Aegean once again. But the sea is still calm.

 

[fantasma]

Hi guys..except the build up of the TUAF around 2015 when deliveries start for JSF also her naval forces are going to be far superior the Greek one over Aegean and a Formidable Force in size and quality over East Mediterranean and the Black Sea..this force in case that relations with Turkey and Greece comes worse could be able to show her teeth over Cyprus and to cut off Sea Lines in Aegean and make naval blockades over several islands..In political means this say that they could able in about a decade to say to their neighbours (in that case Greece) comply to our demands or......

 

[ComSec]

True beleg, Greece is already in advanced stage of negotiations with Netherlads to acquire a number of Pzh2000 (likely 24 units). But again, even with intensified modernisation initiatives in both sides of the Aegean i don't necessarily see relations getting worse. After all, its a fact that there the arms race is mostly a Greek attempt to catch up with Turkish procurements in the face of a steadily growing Turkish economy. The Hellenic MoD understands very well that they cannot directly compete in the long term with Turkey in procurements.

As for Turkey's naval status, i am not aware of any immediate major combatant plans besides the recently announced tender for 4 submarines. Furthremore, information about Turkey preparing for a sizeable AD acquisition program (possibly S-400 or Patriot PAC3) will give them a distinct advantage not only in the Aegean but in the wider area - as rightly pointed by fantasma.

 

[fantasma]

Dear comsec you made a good point here.. Turkish GDP is around 320 bn $ Greek is around 240 bn $. When Turkey spents 5% for defence means 15 bn $ or so and Greece 2.75% means around 6bn $. Turkish economy may have problems but it will reach half trillion $ GDP around 2015. 5% defence budget is 25bn $..meantime greek economy will make less growth about 300-350bn $.. evident is that these figures will affect in the long term the balance of power not to mention demograhic data. An aging greek population around 2020 9 million and on the other side a young population around 85 million people..what kind of balance we are talking about here and arms race or etc.. my opinion is Greece must find a logical solution to Cyprus Aegean disputes and end this situation..if relations become worse in the future and though there is going to be a totally imballance of power by 2015 and later then war is closer. Options for Greece to strengthen economy society (demography) and raise defence budget from one side and the same time to demonstrate that peace co-operation is best option means. A politician once said that making financial ties turns countries from enemies to allies. Watch out German and French. Dear beleg if you have info about naval build up programmes of Turkey and numbers please sent.

 

[ComSec]

Thanks for this information Fantasma - exactly the point i was trying to make. Regardless of the existing disputes which i honestly hope and expect they will be resolved in the mid-long term (i am sure that neither Turkey nor Greece would like to be involved in a war taking into consideration that both are very heavily armed and they both have too much to loose by doing so) there is another important issue. I have been monitoring Hellenic and Turkish defence procurements over the last decade and it is apparent that Turkey is modernising its forces not because of Greek armaments but because they understand the value of modernising your army as a part of their overall geopolitical considerations. On the other side the Greek Gov and MoD haven't yet realised how significant is to make the transition from a cold war era type of force into a modern one. Consequently they are always reactive to Turkish procurements and if they could they would cut their defence budget to half what it is today (if not more).

 

[swerve]

Dear comsec you made a good point here.. Turkish GDP is around 320 bn $ Greek is around 240 bn $. When Turkey spents 5% for defence means 15 bn $ or so and Greece 2.75% means around 6bn $. Turkish economy may have problems but it will reach half trillion $ GDP around 2015. 5% defence budget is 25bn $..meantime greek economy will make less growth about 300-350bn $.. evident is that these figures will affect in the long term the balance of power not to mention demograhic data. An aging greek population around 2020 9 million and on the other side a young population around 85 million people..what kind of balance we are talking about here and arms race or etc.. my opinion is Greece must find a logical solution to Cyprus Aegean disputes and end this situation..if relations become worse in the future and though there is going to be a totally imballance of power by 2015 and later then war is closer. Options for Greece to strengthen economy society (demography) and raise defence budget from one side and the same time to demonstrate that peace co-operation is best option means. A politician once said that making financial ties turns countries from enemies to allies. Watch out German and French. Dear beleg if you have info about naval build up programmes of Turkey and numbers please sent.

[Pedantic mode on] Weeelll, according to the IMF nominal Turkish GDP last year was $362 bn & Greek $223, so the gap is a little more. [Pedantic mode off]

But that's a small difference. More important, I think is that at purchasing power parity, Turkish GDP is much larger, twice as large as Greek. That doesn't affect Turkeys ability to pay for imported weapons, where nominal GDP is a more important figure, but it does affect Turkeys ability to support troops, pay for maintenance (as long as it's done in Turkey, by Turks), etc. Also, if, as you expect (& I believe you're probably right) Turkey grows faster than Greece, it's likely that the difference between exchange rate & PPP for Turkey will reduce, so the nominal GDP will grow faster than the real GDP. So the balance could swing towards Turkey faster.

 

[beleg]

Dear fantasma,
After Greece starts and acquires its new Frigate programme the balance will disturbed be on Greeces side so be relaxed on that part .

Currently Greece has a huge airforce for the area/population/economic power of a country of its size. However the Navy has suffered from that big airforce procurements and the Elli class ships and its FACs are not on par with OHPs and numerous and quite modern FACs of TuNavy imo. FREMM can change the balance once again in the seas but not decisively.

i'll add up the near future plans of TuNavy programmes here, later today or tomorrow as i have time.

Dear comsec,
currently there is no conflict over the horizon. I am optimistic about finding a solution to problems we have with Greece. Turkey will be the energy hub of Europe by 2010s and thus security and stability in Mediterenean,Aegean and Black Sea will be primary interest of all Western powers.

 

[beleg]

[Pedantic mode on] Weeelll, according to the IMF nominal Turkish GDP last year was $362 bn & Greek $223, so the gap is a little more. [Pedantic mode off]

But that's a small difference. More important, I think is that at purchasing power parity, Turkish GDP is much larger, twice as large as Greek. That doesn't affect Turkeys ability to pay for imported weapons, where nominal GDP is a more important figure, but it does affect Turkeys ability to support troops, pay for maintenance (as long as it's done in Turkey, by Turks), etc. Also, if, as you expect (& I believe you're probably right) Turkey grows faster than Greece, it's likely that the difference between exchange rate & PPP for Turkey will reduce, so the nominal GDP will grow faster than the real GDP. So the balance could swing towards Turkey faster.

Good points,
I'll give some examples.

Turkey is building T-155 SpHs in Turkey in the factories of Armed Forces and MKEK (also a gov/mil. factory). This brings a huge drop in actual cost of the units (concript engineers are working in the project for free). The prices are only a little higher than material and imported parts cost.

TuNavy is designing an OPV/ASW corvette which then will be showed to local shipyards and the Navy will request the best offer from shipyards to build the ships. However the desgin phase and the build of the first unit is done by Navy itself which reduces the R&D costs tremendeously.

Sometimes i think Soviet Russia was more capitalist than us

 

[ComSec]

Dear fantasma,
After Greece starts and acquires its new Frigate programme the balance will disturbed be on Greeces side so be relaxed on that part .

Currently Greece has a huge airforce for the area/population/economic power of a country of its size. However the Navy has suffered from that big airforce procurements and the Elli class ships and its FACs are not on par with OHPs and numerous and quite modern FACs of TuNavy imo. FREMM can change the balance once again in the seas but not decisively.

i'll add up the near future plans of TuNavy programmes here, later today or tomorrow as i have time.

Dear comsec,
currently there is no conflict over the horizon. I am optimistic about finding a solution to problems we have with Greece. Turkey will be the energy hub of Europe by 2010s and thus security and stability in Mediterenean,Aegean and Black Sea will be primary interest of all Western powers.

I agree with you Beleg - healthy spending is projected on the EMPAE for the modernisation of the Hellenic navy. Please find below some future programs i 've managed to obtain: 3+3 Frigates (2bn$), 3 FAC (450m$), 1 Landing Ship (150m$), 1+1 logistic support ships (500m$), Torpedoes (110m$), AD systems (60m$), Comms and EW (230m$). In total Naval procurements are projected to be around 27% of the overall EMPAE.

 

[ComSec]

By the way - Greece just announced in Eurosatory the acquisition of additional SPERWER UAV's.

 

[fantasma]

Dear swerwe don't doubt figures you gave, just didn't have accurate data and also agree with you for the rapid change and the gap will get bigger and bigger by the years..i think that Greek economy shows marks of exhaustion because of arms race from 1974 that costed to Greece 197 loses of aircrafts about 140 pilots and because of bad decisions and programming.The biggest example is Airforce..Turkey gave an order for 160 f16 in 1984 40 in 1992 and another 40 in 1997 and gave to her industry part of the manufacturing of the f16s.. Greece said the needs are 120 aircraft by 1980, in 1983 i think the final desicion was for 80 aircraft 40f16 +40 mirage 2000, in 1992 40 more f16s ordered and 1999 60f16+15 Mirage2000-5 and finally 2006 another 30f16s. A sum of 225 aircraft compared to the 240 of Turkey.. Look the difference between the the TAI and EAB..after a restless hunt a trully arms race two decades later Greece can say that there is a balance in the air. But a result was to leave the needs of the Navy behind and the programme of the new Frigates dear beleg is in the sphere of discussion yet while the same time the Milgem boat and other Warships are under construction..dont know figures but its rumored to be 6..End of this programme 2017..It seems to me that in a few years except for the Navy's needs, aiforce will come soon and demand new generation fighters. Turkey said is going to spent the next decade around 10bn $ for about 100-120 aircraft and Greece must make her move..Also wanted to criticize last procurement of 30 f16 blk 50/52..reason is that reduses funds for the next generation fighter and secondly it wasn't necessary after the 1999 order..Last figure Greece is funded from the EU about 20.5 bn Euros for the next 7 years and going to spent for military purposes about 22bn Euros next years

 

[fantasma]

Dear Beleg not sure if memory helps me Turkey has 4 MEKO 200trackI 4 MEKO 200 trackII 8 Oliver Perry 6 Knox 6 French Corvettes, under construction 8 Milgem Corvettes and preparing demands for the new Frigates around 6-8 and 2 Spruance Destroyers..4 subs 209/1400 Gur Class and 4 209/1400 Preveze Class..Greece from the other side has 4 Meko 200 (track II of Turkish Navy level) 10 Elli class (from which 6 are upgrated and the others are going to be sold maybe to Egypt and Pakistan) and the 6 new Frigates that are under discussion yet..4 subs 214 ,4 209/1100 4 209/1200 (from which 3 upgrated to AIP) Didn;t mention FACS

 

[ComSec]

Dear Fantasma
It is widely understood that the Greek frigate program is on the top of the procurement priorities (thus very high probability of materialisation). At the moment i am aware of serious negotiations between the two local shipyards for the program. Furthermore, the program is likely to materialise sooner rather than later. This because late implementation might result in one or both those shipyards closing down. Can you confirm that?