Arms Control & Disarmament Thread for WMDs (Chemical & Biological Weapons included)

[John Fedup]

I find this article about certain US allies getting WMD rather bizarre. For Japan, probably yes given their environment. For Germany, probably impossible politically. As this is a recent article, the idea of Canada having nukes given the state of Canada-US relations at the moment would be a non-starter for the IOTUS and his gang. From a Canadian perspective, this idea pre Nov24 would be politically zero probability. Many now see the US as just as big a threat as Russia and China so perhaps the probability is no longer zero.

America’s Allies Should Go Nuclear: Selective Proliferation Will Strengthen the Global Order, Not End It

 

[Ananda]

Selective Nuclear Proliferation sorry to say it is a Pandora box can worm BS. It is just openly say the standard for Proliferation now open to everyone interpretation. Why only Western powers or Allies that can have it ? Who or what power that say that one can have it, the other one can not. Only US allies can have it ? That:s big BS for the rest of world.

Let's example Middle East, it is already tough US handling at this moment to hold Saudi and Egypt back from acquiring Nuclear capabilities because Israel have ones, and Iran closing the gap on every opportunity. The moment some Western nations in Europe or North America fell they should have it, cause they disappointed with US, then Middle East will say, well if those Western nations think it is alright to have ones, we will not be following some 'hypocrite' standard to have our own.

How about Asia, the moment ROK and Japan see the selective Proliferation can be word out, then they will use North Korea arguments. Then ASEAN especially Indonesia feel the can of worm already open, let's have it. Do you think Australia will stay silence ?

Current Proliferation regime is not perfect, but it is still better then alternative. Selective Proliferation is bad idea, cause it is simply can lead to everyone have their own arguments to developed their own Nuclear armament options. This is not 60's-70's anymore. Building nuclear capabilities is not an unachievable tech anymore for more nations. Like it or not the Non-Proliferation strangle from the Big 5 still the best option for World Order. Opening that limitation, is opening chaos and not order.

 

[John Fedup]

Proliferation got its initial start with India and Pakistan. It should have ended there. The failure to contain NKorea's development of WMD is why proliferation is likely to continue and as stated in post #22, the technology can be achieved by many middle-tier nations now. Not a good situation but with the US domestic situation and their possible return to isolationism, there are nations which will see WMD as the only way to counter threats from China/Russia/UK.

 

[Ananda]

The point is, there are no guarantee that this selective proliferation will only limited to Western Allies. Russia and China can also open the can worm to their choices of selective nations to counter western move for Selective Proliferation. Russia and China are not the only ones that have beef against West.

Proliferation can of worm started not with India and Pakistan. It is started with Israel, and later on those two south asia adversaries see they can get away with that also. NK already become most isolated and embargoes nation in the world. They just simply don't care, but no other nations that want to follow NK path of isolationism just for nuclear proliferation.

Will this Western Allies selective proliferation also got isolation and embargoes just like NK and Iran ? If they don't then the whole proliferation order just goes to toilet. Like I say, the current non proliferation regime is not perfect (far from it), but still much better for World Order then the alternative.

 

[John Fedup]

The point is, there are no guarantee that this selective proliferation will only limited to Western Allies. Russia and China can also open the can worm to their choices of selective nations to counter western move for Selective Proliferation. Russia and China are not the only ones that have beef against West.

Maybe, but China/Russia may view "selective nations" as problematic.

Proliferation can of worm started not with India and Pakistan. It is started with Israel,

Israel likely did start earlier (with possible French assistance initially) and their program accelerated after the Six-Day War and Yom Kippur wars. Whether they had a working bomb before India, WTF knows and most Western nations would have supported this (in private) after Yom Kippur.

NK already become most isolated and embargoes nation in the world. They just simply don't care, but no other nations that want to follow NK path of isolationism just for nuclear proliferation.

Can't see very many nations isolating Japan or SKorea over WMD.

 

[Ananda]

Maybe, but China/Russia may view "selective nations" as problematic.

Same thing with US, they will also find if let some of their allies to get nuclear proliferation as problematic.

Israel likely did start earlier (with possible French assistance initially) and their program accelerated after the Six-Day War and Yom Kippur wars. Whether they had a working bomb before India, WTF knows and most Western nations would have supported this (in private) after Yom Kippur.

By Yom Kippur they already have it, as it is known Dayan suggest to Meir using their nuclear weapons when they are facing set backs from combine Egypt and Syria attacks in early days of war. However on matter of proliferation this also one of reasons that shown others nuclear wannabe (India and Pakistan), there's way to get away. So the proliferation shackle loosening begin with Israel and not with Pakistan-India.

Can't see very many nations isolating Japan or SKorea over WMD.

All back to US and others Big 5, if they let ROK-Japan and Canada, Germany other NATO to get away from Nuclear Proliferation shackle and trade consequences, then again it is back to Russia and China to open proliferation to nations they choose to counter growing Western Allies Nuclear arms.

It is back to initial arguments that this is not 20th century, and what West say don't mean others will follow. We see that on the effort to isolate Russia that face deaf ears from most Global South and China. Selective proliferation only to Western allies will not work better for Global order as the article argument.

In the end all is back to US to keep the shackle enforce or not. Regardless what some US allies feel on current Trump and potential US defense policies in future.