Afghanistan War

[Big_Zucchini]

Agree that the big problem will be the humanitarian crisis regardless of any other problems facing Afghanistan. Getting aid in and distributed to those in need is paramount.

The next problem is the economy, so is getting the banks, shops, and markets open again to get the economy up and running again. That will help ensure that the people will have access to basic necessities. They also have clamp down on their own fighters doing standovers of merchants and others. Those kind of actions defeat the purpose.

Whilst the current political situation in Afghanistan is far from ideal, it may offer the chance for some stability and a semblance of peace in Afghanistan. That cannot be overlooked even though the Taliban in control is distasteful to many.

US organised international sanctions will be a problem for Afghanistan. No doubt the US will more than double down on them now in fits of anger and revenge because they hate losing and are poor losers. History has shown this because they have demonised Cuba since 1959 and Vietnam for 40 odd years, until recently. There has to be a clear break in the cycle otherwise the US Is just continuing the cycle of hatred and creation of enemies. It no longer can afford two wars at the same time and the PRC will definitely stir up and support insurrectionists against the US and its partners if the US continues along the same cycle.

Agreed. Taliban's barbarism aside, they do have one thing the previous Afghan government didn't have - a unified Afghanistan.
For better or worse, any policy toward Afghanistan will now be toward a single, more stable entity.

 

[STURM]

The Taliban do not yet have a "unified" country. Like the previous government and ones prior to that, they plan or hope to. In turn dependent on a whole list of factors.

A major difference now is that for various reasons neighboring countries are not inclined to provide material aid to anti Taliban forces and will use dialogue, as well as aid/development as leverage against the Talibs. The Taliban will point out that it needs overall stability in order for it to devote attention and resources towards combating IS.

Meanwhile a UAE plane carrying humanitruan aid will soon arrive. Together with Saudi both countrirs were the first to officially recognise the Taliban government in 1996.

 

[STURM]

My understanding is that these embedded advisors were technically "retired" Pakistani Army soldiers dressed as Taliban. They are a black operation.

That was prior to 11th September 2001 when the Taliban was more reliant on Pakistan, large numbers of Pakistani Pashtuns [many student Talibs from Madarassahs] also crossed the border. As they did during the 1980"s ISI/SSG operatives were also on the ground but this time around they were largely absent for the reason that they were not needed and the world was paying closer attention, there was also no large groups of volunteers crossing over from Pakistan,

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

This image makes you really understand the enormous amount of early Christmas presents for the Talibs.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1431974453202804737

 

[Arji]

This image makes you really understand the enormous amount of early Christmas presents for the Talibs.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1431974453202804737

I'd say the most valuable gain for the Taliban are the radios, NVG, trucks, and ground vehicles, as well as the optics that came with the guns as oppose to the aircraft. With the vehicles, they'll have a quick motorized force that can relocate to hotspots whenever an insurrection pops up, and with the NVGs, radios, and scope, their infantry will have considerable advantage fighting the new insurgents, unless those insurgents gets external help.

Best part is, they're relatively cheap to run, and easier to source the batteries and parts for, at least compare to the big aircrafts.

I believe they also captured UAVs, some ANA ScanEagle I think.

 

[Stampede]

This image makes you really understand the enormous amount of early Christmas presents for the Talibs.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1431974453202804737

If correct, these are staggering numbers and types of platforms to be "Written off"

I can somewhat understand in the rush some of the inventory being left behind, but is there an explanation for the C-130s?

Regards S

 

[t68]

This image makes you really understand the enormous amount of early Christmas presents for the Talibs.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1431974453202804737

Hopefully someone would have taken the firing pins or breech blocks out of the weapons or set the lot on fire in the armoury

 

[John Fedup]

Probably the biggest problem is the actual weapons, many of which could easily be sold to terrorists for cash. Trucks they will use but some of the other military vehicles aren’t of much use unless serious opposition arises.

 

[STURM]

I would think that the Taliban would make an effort to keep what it has gained rather than enable 'terrorists' to obtain them. A lot of the equipment is also stuff which will not be appropriate for use by "terrorists'.

 

[Terran]

Most of the Aircraft seem to have been broken. We know that they are able to fly one UH60 but beyond that it’s an unknown. A few did leave country. It’s likely that any future Taliban Airforce would be highly dependent on some third party refurbishment of the fleet. The MRAPS are another question point. Most of the type have limitations by Afghanistan’s mountain terrain. They are also maintenance intensive.

 

[STURM]

Yes and itt would be very ironic if at some future point, to aid the Taliban in its fight against IS, the U.S. discreetly provides technical assistance to the Taliban to keep some of the ex ANA gear in running condition. Strange things have been known to happen for the sake of realpolitik and shared interests.

 

[Terran]

Yes and itt would be very ironic if at some future point, to aid the Taliban in its fight against IS, the U. S. discreetly provides technical assistance to the Taliban to keep some of the ex ANA gear in running condition. Strange things have been known to happen for the sake of realpolitik and shared interests.

I hope the administration isn’t that idiotic.
Incidentally Taliban announce new government for Afghanistan Taliban announce new government for Afghanistan
The New Head of state is a former Pakistani detainee.
The new interior minister is Sarajuddin Haqqani. FBI most wanted, AQ connected, name sake of the Haqqani network. His faction was also in charge of security of Kabul during the evacuation allowed through the suicide bomber.

 

[STURM]

I hope the administration isn’t that idiotic.

What the U S. preaches and what it actually does can differ greatly. The U. S. for its own interests will have to maintain a relationship with the Taliban.

When the PLO was desugnstrd a 'terrorist' organisation the U S. had contacts with it and tried to keep it a secret from the Isrralis. Even after Iran was declared a member of the "acid of evil' [itself a meaningless term] the U.S. not only had contacts with it but both sides cooperated when and where they had to.

Conditions were chaotic. There were a lot of people and the Talibs had their hands full controlling large crowds at the areas that were assigned. It's hardly surprising that IS operatives were able to blend in and get past undetected.

 

[STURM]

The new interior minister is Sarajuddin Haqqani. FBI most wanted, AQ connected,

Fair enough but it doesn't mean they aren't necessarily the right people for the job. Almost every senior Talib had ties with AQ, just like how every Iraqi military or police official had ties to the Baath party.

What the U S. preaches and what it actually does will differ. For its interests it has to maintain a dialogue with the Taliban. When the PLO was drsignated d a 'terrorist' organisation the U S. had contacts with it and tried to hide it from the Israelis. When Iran was declared an 'axis of evil' [a meaningless cliche] the U S. still had contacts with it and cooperated over areas of common interests, despite blaming Iran for practilly everything wrong in the region whilst, overlooking what Saudi did [at one point the main sponsor of the Taliban and expoter of Wahabism].

 

[Terran]

Before making any bargains might want to get the last 100-200 Citizens of the US out of country. 4 have apparently left via land well air lift has stalled.
it was “Axis of Evil” by the way. Acid of Evil sounds like a Troma film.
This is opinion but siding with the Taliban and AQ to fight IS is like siding with the SA to fight the SS. They have the same goals same wants and endgame. Just one demands it today the other will impose changes to make it like they want over time.

Given the demand to get out of “forever wars” better to finish the evacuation. Sanction the hell out of the Taliban and only supply humanitarian aid.

 

[STURM]

His faction was also in charge of security of Kabul during the evacuation allowed through the suicide bomber.

Conditions were very chaotic. There were masses of people and the Tallibs had their hands full. Hardly surprising that a IS cell was able to blend in undetected.

 

[STURM]

This is opinion but siding with the Taliban and AQ to fight IS is like siding with the SA to fight the SS.

The SA and SS [despite competition and schisms] both subscribed to the same national socialist ideology. under one party and one leader. IS and AQ are actuallly slightly diffirent in terms of ideology and how they planned to achieve their ultimate aims.

There is also no choice but to side with the Taliban against iS [as happened in the past]. Unlike IS the Taliban has no interest in spreading its ideology worldwide.

Yes it is the 'axis of evil' indeed - typo but thank you.

The fact that U S citizens are still in the country and that Afghnistan sliding into anarchy will not be in American interests are exactly why contact will maintained with the Taliban and why bargains will also be made when needed.

 

[Feanor]

Most of the Aircraft seem to have been broken. We know that they are able to fly one UH60 but beyond that it’s an unknown. A few did leave country. It’s likely that any future Taliban Airforce would be highly dependent on some third party refurbishment of the fleet. The MRAPS are another question point. Most of the type have limitations by Afghanistan’s mountain terrain. They are also maintenance intensive.

They're trying to build relations with Russia and China so I suspect they will be able to operate their Mi-8/17 fleet if they choose to.

 

[STURM]

They're trying to build relations with Russia and China so I suspect they will be able to operate their Mi-8/17 fleet if they choose to.

The Pakistanis will also be able to help in this regard.

 

[STURM]

Sanction the hell out of the Taliban and only supply humanitarian aid.

Will make the U S. look good but over the long term might not make the Taliban leadership lose any sleep if countries such as China, India, Iran [already supplying oil and gas] and Russia are able to provide certain assistance. All these countries desire stability even if it means the Taliban staying in power, which is why the Panjshiris, unlike in the past are now alone.