2016 Turkish coup d'état

[John Fedup]

From what I've been seeing in the news, it appears that there are mass arrests, and abuse of those in custody. This isn't going to bode well for NATO and the war against ISIS, if true.

Art

I agree. Erdogan had his enemies list put together long before this amateur hour coup happened. He will entrench his power now and is not the West's friend. It is a disgrace that we are supplying F-35s along with some manufacturing technology.:flaming

 

[STURM]

It is a disgrace that we are supplying F-35s along with some manufacturing technology.:flaming

If we go on that basis; ''we'' should also stop being chums with Egypt, Saudi, Bahrain and a whole list of other countries including Israel. For that matter, why is Thailand still a non NATO U.S. ally when the present military led government came to power in a coup. With regards to Erdogan, my main concern is how things will affect Turkey and ordinary Turks; the ''West'' is secondary. I'm no fan of Erdogan but his priority should be Turkey and not the ''West''. Also, what's good for the ''West'' may not necessarily be good for Turkey.

 

[John Fedup]

If we go on that basis; ''we'' should also stop being chums with Egypt, Saudi, Bahrain and a whole list of other countries including Israel. For that matter, why is Thailand still a non NATO U.S. ally when the present military led government came to power in a coup. With regards to Erdogan, my main concern is how things will affect Turkey; the ''West'' is secondary. I'm no fan of Erdogan but his priority should be Turkey and not the ''West''; also, what's good for the ''West'' may not necessarily be good for Turkey.

I think there would be some serious outcry if F-35s were being offered to Egypt, SA, etc. Israel is a reliable ally, Turkey is starting to look the exact opposite. Thailand is not an Islamic threat so they are given a pass (rightly or wrongly) as are other marginally to non-democratic regimes. In China's case, non-democratic government seems to be ok given the economic relationship between China and the West. National interests are always first.

 

[STURM]

Israel a reliable ally? Some of its policies have damaged the U.S.'s relationship with other countries. Egypt which is led by a military government is the 2nd largest recipient of U.S. aid after Israel. Of course it's all because of national interests. What makes Turkey different? As for Thailand not being an Islamic threat; is Turkey an Islamic threat? In the larger scheme of things; who is more important to long term U.S. interests : Turkey or Thailand?

 

[John Fedup]

Israel a reliable ally? Some of its policies have damaged the U.S.'s relationship with other countries. Egypt which is led by a military government is the 2nd largest recipient of U.S. aid after Israel. Of course it's all because of national interests. What makes Turkey different? As for Thailand not being an Islamic threat; is Turkey an Islamic threat? In the larger scheme of things; who is more important to long term U.S. interests : Turkey or Thailand?

Let's face it, national interests are what it's about. Turkey and Egypt, for the time being, are different from a national interest point of view. One is a military dictatorship with a sort of pro-West outlook and is not in the Islamic anti-West-kill-the non-believers-camp whereas the other is sort of a democratic regime (likely heading towards dictatorship) with disturbing signs of heading into the Islamic extremist camp. For this reason, yes, I think they are a potential threat whereas Thailand isn't. You are correct about some of the issues with Israel but at the end of the day, they are still the best ally in the region despite some of the things they do in their perceived national interests.

 

[swerve]

I find this 'Israel is an ally' American idea interesting. The Jewish Virtual Library (not exactly anti-Israel) lists US aid to Israel up to 2014 as $120,472 million. Adjusted for inflation, it'd be a great deal more. For example, the $2646.3 mn given in 1974 was 21% of Israel's GDP, & worth about $9.5 billion at 2011 prices. There's also been a huge amount of technical assistance, which has greatly boosted Israeli technological capability & indirectly its economy.

The question is, what has Israel done on its side? Sold military technology (some of it developed with US money & assistance) to China, poisoned US relations with much of the Middle East (why do so many Arabs see the USA as an enemy? Ask them & they almost all say "Israel"), & a sustained attack on a clearly marked US sigint ship killing 34 crew & injuring 171 immediately spring to mind. Israel has provided intelligence, but a lot's been against countries which might have been friends of the USA if they'd not been enemies of Israel.

Israel's a truculent & difficult friend who's always getting into scrapes & having to be bailed out, a client, not an ally.

 

[Toblerone]

The jewish lobby in the USA is extremely powerful. I honestly believe that many people in positions of power make decisions that will personally benefit them with regards to this lobby, building their careers up. And these decisions are pro-Israel of course.

There are also many jews in critical positions.

So I don't find it strange that one party gets way more benefits from this relationship that the other. Because many policies serve the person's political career and not practical US interests.

I will never forget the standing ovation that Netanyahu got when he spoke in Congress. Those people just refused to sit down, they clapped until their hands went red, as if they were being evaluated through the cameras in a 1984esque atmosphere. Sorry for sounding dramatic or like a conspiracist but I was really shaken.

EDIT: I am not even touching the arrogance of that speech either

 

[Feanor]

I find this 'Israel is an ally' American idea interesting. The Jewish Virtual Library (not exactly anti-Israel) lists US aid to Israel up to 2014 as $120,472 million. Adjusted for inflation, it'd be a great deal more. For example, the $2646.3 mn given in 1974 was 21% of Israel's GDP, & worth about $9.5 billion at 2011 prices. There's also been a huge amount of technical assistance, which has greatly boosted Israeli technological capability & indirectly its economy.

The question is, what has Israel done on its side? Sold military technology (some of it developed with US money & assistance) to China, poisoned US relations with much of the Middle East (why do so many Arabs see the USA as an enemy? Ask them & they almost all say "Israel"), & a sustained attack on a clearly marked US sigint ship killing 34 crew & injuring 171 immediately spring to mind. Israel has provided intelligence, but a lot's been against countries which might have been friends of the USA if they'd not been enemies of Israel.

Israel's a truculent & difficult friend who's always getting into scrapes & having to be bailed out, a client, not an ally.

You forget to mention their relationships with Russia and China. Hell Israel supplies Russia their only medium-range UAVs despite their blatant and illegal use over Ukraine (at least two were downed and on the wrong side of the front line). Israel is an opportunist, though arguably by necessity.

 

[ngatimozart]

The jewish lobby in the USA is extremely powerful. I honestly believe that many people in positions of power make decisions that will personally benefit them with regards to this lobby, building their careers up. And these decisions are pro-Israel of course.

There are also many jews in critical positions.

So I don't find it strange that one party gets way more benefits from this relationship that the other. Because many policies serve the person's political career and not practical US interests.

I will never forget the standing ovation that Netanyahu got when he spoke in Congress. Those people just refused to sit down, they clapped until their hands went red, as if they were being evaluated through the cameras in a 1984esque atmosphere. Sorry for sounding dramatic or like a conspiracist but I was really shaken.

EDIT: I am not even touching the arrogance of that speech either

I would be very careful about making broad brush allegations regarding racial / religious groups and their distribution through the workforce of a general population where they are a minority and that is why I am framing my answer the way I am.

The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) is the main and very powerful pro Israeli lobby group operating in the US. The Huffington Post ran an article a couple of years go about it that wasn't very complimentary. I would agree with Swerve and Sturm that Israel has proved to be a somewhat of a problem child for Washington and sometimes I do wonder who really controls some US policy, Washington or Jerusalem given the influence that AIPAC have in Washington.

The National Interest recently ran an article:Why Are American Jews Abandoning Israel? The crux of the article is that American Jews are assimilating into American culture with their loyalty being more to the US than to Israel. They are becoming liberal Jews, especially the younger generation, and the orthodox and ultra orthodox sects will reduce in numbers. The liberal Jews are now rejecting and protesting against the direction of the conversation being pushed by the Jewish establishment groups such as AIPAC. If this groundswell continues and gains momentum over time, then there could be a sea change in the US policy towards Israel at some stage in the future.

Finally, an ex Israeli Army General has said that US Aid Harms and Corrupts Israel. He says that continual aid has stifled Israeli innovation in tactics, strategy and technology because the IDF have become reliant upon US weaponry and technology without building up its own capacity to be self sufficient.

 

[STURM]

Israel's a truculent & difficult friend who's always getting into scrapes & having to be bailed out, a client, not an ally.

Not to mention the issue of Jonathan Pollard. An American citizen tried for espionage and whom Israel has been lobbying to get released.

You are correct about some of the issues with Israel but at the end of the day, they are still the best ally in the region despite some of the things they do in their perceived national interests.

Whether Israel is indeed the best ally in the region is open to great debate ...

There are times where Israel has done things that is not in in the interests of the U.S. [a prime example would be the 1982 invasion of Lebanon] and there are times when the U.S. [because of it's policy of unconditional support for Israel] has done things that that are not in line with U.S. interests. If Obama had listened to Israel and had attacked Iran; what would the consequences have been? Would attacking Iran have served Israeli or U.S. interests? If the U.S. didn't have a policy of unconditional support for Israel would we be closer to a 2 state solution for Palestine? Every time the U.S. vetoes any criticism of Israel; does it actually benefit the U.S. or does it provide Israel with further assurance that it can do whatever it wants because it enjoys unconditional U.S. support?

For many years the U.S. came close to having useful dialogue with various Palestinian groups but it couldn't as the Israelis would protest. But wait a minute, as a counterweight to the corrupt and useless Fatah; the Israelis had dialogue with Hamas! When it suits Israel, it has back door dealings with Hezbollah. The U.S.'s policy of unconditional support for Israel really came after the 6 Day War. At that time it was understandable as the U.S. was trying to contain Soviet influence in the region and a number of Arab states had become Soviet friendly. At present we really have to question whether this unconditional support for Israel really contributes to long term peace and stability in the region.

For this reason, yes, I think they are a potential threat whereas Thailand isn't.

Just because Turkey becomes more Islamic doesn't mean it's a threat to the West. If we go on that basis why is the West still best chums with Saudi? Women in Saudi aren't allowed to drive and aren't allowed to work. The Saudi Wahabbi ideology has been adopted by IS, Al Qeda and the Taliban. Yet the West still courts Saudi and has billions of dollars of trade and defence relations with it. A large number of the September 11 hijackers were Saudi citizens. If they had been Tunisians, Libyans or Syrians; what would the U.S. response have been?

I'm no Erdogan fan but we often overlook the fact that what's good for the West doesn't necessarily mean it's also good Turkey and other countries. If Erdogan were to do certain things, the West might applaud him but those certain things might not be good for Turkey.

 

[John Fedup]

why is the West still best chums with Saudi?? Women in Saudi aren't allowed to drive and the Saudi Wahabbi ideology has been adopted by IS, Al Qeda and the Taliban. Yet the West still courts Saudi and has billions of dollars of trade and defence relations with it.

Agreed, SA is not our friend nor is Pakistan and the two of them are responsible for much of the current grief yet perceived national interests put them in the "friends" camp. Hopefully Erdogan doesn't buy into their BS but I am not optimistic.

 

[STURM]

Pakistan was in a very tough position; on one hand it had to please Uncle Sam but on the other hand; certain policies or things Uncle Sam wanted Pakistan to do would have been damaging to Pakistan. The Pakistanis also never forgot how after the Soviets left Afghanistan, the U.S. lost interest and left; thus Pakistan is mindful of the fact that even after the Americans leave - again - that Pakistan will still have the same neighbour and the same issues to deal with [granted a lot of these issues are the fault of Pakistan, including it's obsession with the threat posed by India; rather than focusing on defeating extremist groups].

With regards to Israel; I feel that America really has to take a hard look at its relationship with Israel. Sure, the U.S. will still insist that it guarantees Israel's security [never mind that no country in the region has the capability to destroy Israel] and Israel will continue to be the largest recipient of U.S. aid but certain changes have to be made. At the moment it's very one sided and this one sided relationship has damaged U.S. interests and it's standing in the Arab world.

It is 10 years since UN peacekeepers were killed in southern Lebanon – and it could happen again now | Voices | The Independent

 

[ngatimozart]

An article about the impacts that the effects of the failed coup are having and the impacts that it will have on the Turkish military. It suggests that the military will take many years to recover from the fall out of the coup failure and that this will have serious impacts upon NATO.

 

[Feanor]

Something is happening at Incirlik. The base is surrounded by 7 000 Turkish troops, with heavy weapons and vehicles. Rumors circulate that there is a second coup d'etat planned and this is a pre-emptive move.

https://aftershock.news/?q=node/422368
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[gf0012-aust]

if its not a pre-emptive, then odds are that its a subtle message to US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Joseph Dunford about whose country NATO forces are sitting in and what will happen if they are harbouring

 

[Feanor]

if its not a pre-emptive, then odds are that its a subtle message to US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Joseph Dunford about whose country NATO forces are sitting in and what will happen if they are harbouring

There were claims on Russian sources, that I didn't consider terribly credible initially, that the US knew the coup was coming and didn't warn Erdogan. What you're saying about the harbouring certainly casts those claims in a new light.

There's also claims that Erdogan has been shutting down FSA traffic through Syria. No word on their relationship to other rebel groups.

And then there's Erdogan's recent comments to Joseph Votel...

 

[Waylander]

Turkey should remember that while the US right now displays a lot of reluctance in commenting the ongoing operations in Turkey in a confrontational way, that the hammer will come down fast and hard should anything or anybody threaten the B-61 nuclear weapons stored at Inçirlic.

 

[swerve]

If reports be believed, Turkish officials talking on condition of anonymity have said that many identified golpistas were already listed as suspect & were targeted for sidelining or dismissal, but they weren't expected to act. It seems that the authorities believed that a coup attempt wouldn't stand a chance, & were very shaken up by the attempt & how far it went. They thought that potential plotters also believed it was hopeless so wouldn't try.

I have no idea if this is true.

Opposition parties pretty much unanimously & immediately came out against the coup, however much they loathe Erdogan. It was am opportunity for him to be statesmanlike & build bridges with the democratic opposition. Sadly, he's been his usual self.

 

[STURM]

There was a meeting last week between Erdogan and leaders from the opposition CHP and MHP. The Kurdish HDP was off course excluded from the meeting. Erdogan has to walk a very thin line : he has to ensure a coup doesn't happen again, whilst also ensuring that his purging of the military doesn't backfire; he has to deal with the Syrian issue and there is an ongoing insurgency fought against the Kurds. On top of that he has to deal with the West, including his NATO partners, who aren't very happy with certain things he's done. Luckily for him, the majority of the population came out against the coup. Erdogan is also slightly annoyed that although many countries openly condemned the coup; that they weren't very openly sympathetic over the loss of life and with the various measures he's taken to purge the military and media of all who might have had support for the rebels. The question is if Erdogan goes further by conducting more purges of the military, will the military just sit back?

TURKEY’S GENERALS STRIKE BACK « Eric Margolis

Turkey, once the great hope of the Middle East, is left weak and unstable | Voices | The Independent

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-the-state-of-turkeys-democracy-a7165126.html

 

[ngatimozart]

Turkey protests at Germany's barring of Erdogan address
Erdogans govt seem to have the impression that they can enforce their will on other nations. First of all trying to force the US to extradite Muslim cleric Fethullah Gulen and now spitting the dummy because they couldn't broadcast a video by Erdogan in Germany at a protest.