I am aware that FutureTank is banned but I think it is necessary to address some of the issues presented by his post and the posts by riksavage and ReAl PrOeLiTeZ as they contain some related issues.
What is the threat to Singapore?
Good question and I'll have a go at answering one aspect.
Currently, there is a possibility of a
troubled peace with our immediate neighbours. This includes the possibility of some state and non-state actors not honouring signed agreements (and they have their stated willingness or intent to do so) so as to introduce sudden disruption to the economy of Singapore.
In fairness, Malaysia has NEVER cut off water supply to Singapore (the two water agreements expires in 2011 and in 2061, respectively). However, during times of tension, or domestic political upheaval in Malaysia, often there would be calls by local Malaysian politicians to cut off the water supply in violation of international law. In fact, Singapore gets blamed for very imaginative things by Malaysian politicians including
floods in Malaysia (which I would believe is caused by weather patterns
!?).
Indonesia also
suddenly cut-off the supply of sand to Singapore in Feb 2007. This was recognized as having an adverse economic impact on Singapore and we have since found other sources of sand supply. Of significance however, was the need for us to draw down our stockpile of sand (which I must admit I did not know we had, prior to the dispute). Further,
in May 2008, the Regional Indonesian Assembly of Batam threatened to block ConocoPhilips' ability to supply natural gas to Singapore (under a 20 year long term sales contract), as the some gas supplied to Singapore passes through Batam via the Grissik-Batam-Singapore Pipeline (as Batam at that time was suffering from alternate power cuts and who can blame them for being upset). BTW ConocoPhilips earns more revenue by selling natural gas to Singapore, as we buy at a higher price. Batam on the other hand buys at lower prices and are also not committed to a long term contract.
While the disputes with the Indonesian navy (over the sand and granite issues) and their local authorities (over natural gas supplies for power generation) are not immediate causes for war, they are potentially disruptive to Singapore's economy.
OTOH, you could also argue that given the more interdependent nature of the economies of the 3 above mentioned countries, there is less incentive to go to war. Over the last 40 years, intra-ASEAN trade has grown, enriching our peoples, which has helped set the stage for the possibility of greater geo-strategic stability. The current problem is more related to the uneven distribution of wealth.
Why does it seem hard to defend Singapore? Its a very large fortress with a very big moat...
Obviously not an informed response on prior postings in this thread. Please see posts
#81 (Ans to 5 Qns on SG defence) and #88 (SG was never a fortress). I really don't care to defend those posts but the above remarks indicate a failure to read the thread before commenting.
riksavage said:
One of the critical chinks in Singapore's defensive chain-mail is NOT a military one, but one of sustainability. Singapore has ZERO ability to grow or produce enough food to feed it's population (simply no arable land available), it relies totally on external exports. Rice, dairy, meat, cereals all have to be imported by ship or transferred across the causeway from Malaysia.
As far as I know no city is totally self reliant on food and water supplies, so what you said is not surprising. However, it is well known that we do have food reserves stock piles for everyone in Singapore to cater for short term disruptions. Further, we have also attempted to diversify our various food supply source countries, as a risk management strategy.
If there is a city model for us to examine on being self sufficient in food within city boundaries, please let me know.
In fact, Singapore is also vulnerable to a sudden disruption of natural gas supply from Indonesia, as we do have long term contracts in place to buy natural gas from Indonesia via two pipelines via the West Natuna Transportation System and the previously mentioned Grissik-Batam-Singapore Pipeline.
ReAl PrOeLiTeZ said:
im pretty sure everything yes i mean everything is imported reliant, they cannot self sustain their own country. just to give people some insight
Your insight presented here was stated by riksavage and also in post #81.
riksavage said:
If, say for arguments sake, Malaysia closed the causeway and threatened to mine the approaches to Singapore then, strong military or not, the country would face tough times.
With the economic recession ahead, expatriates are being forced to leave Singapore as their companies downsize. So some expatriates are leaving as we speak and that is to be expected.
Singapore's ability to respond with force on an act of aggression pre-disposes a regional challenge geared towards either an asymmetric or non-state action. Further, I am of the view that it is very, very unlikely that Malaysia would ever close the causeway and mine the approaches to Singapore, as an economic blockage of this sort would be seen as an unambiguous act of war by Singapore. More importantly, such acts are not in the interest of Malaysia (as we are mutually interdependent major trading partners). Further, other regional and extra-regional powers would immediately intervene.
riksavage said:
Singapore's only choice under the circumstances would be to move North and seize land for agricultural production...
IMHO, I would not say that war is the ONLY choice, as we are really not interested in setting up a farming colony, particularly, if we can buy from alternate primary producing sources.
@riksavage, what do you think? Have I got it wrong?
riksavage said:
...and / or expand it's MCM/ASW capabilities to the point where it can guarantee clear sea-lanes.
We are working on acquiring better ASW capabilities but we cannot be self sufficient in MCM (as we have only 4 Bedok Class mine clearing ships). If SLOCs in this region is disrupted via mines, there would be an international mine sweeping effort...