Syrian Internal Conflict

surpreme

Member
Huh? I know Syria's been on a shopping spree for Russian GBAD lately, but it wouldn't be the Russian military installing them. They would be delivered by the manufacturer. There may be a number of military advisers in Syria, but overall I don't have much confidence in this article. I'd like some serious evidence that Syria has received any S-300s. Iirc they upgraded some of their S-125s to the Pechora-2M level, they got ~50 Pantsyrs, and an unknown number of Buk-M2Es, quite possible some radar systems, EW, and C4I gear for their new toys, but S-300 sales seem quite unlikely.

EDIT: I recall they wanted the system, but at Israeli request, they were denied. If you get more solid info then that, please let me know. Pictures would be nice, a Rosoboroneksport source, would be even better.
I do remember the Israeli making a fess about S-300's. I haven't seen or heard Syria recieving some S-300's and believe me they need them bad. Israeli Air Force just went though Syria airspace like it was nothing. Syria is not doing so good right now there are report that army units are fighting each other. Syria Armed Forces need to be tuned up or modernize. If fighting did break out between Israeli and Syria the Israeli will wiped them out in days. This revolt has been going for months its hurting the Syrian Armed Forces. If this is not resolve in six months Syria is in trouble.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Syria has been making an effort to modernize their IADS. They've been on a shopping spree, that includes new MiG-29M fighters, and a bucket-full of GBAD. And they don't show any signs of slowing down their acquisitions either. So I wouldn't be surprised to see them acquiring more Buk-M2Es, more Patsyrs, Tor-M2Es, and more upgraded Fulcrums. The real question is, is it even possible for Syria to get to the point where they can effectively protect their airspace from Israel.
 

Sampanviking

Banned Member
Huh? I know Syria's been on a shopping spree for Russian GBAD lately, but it wouldn't be the Russian military installing them. They would be delivered by the manufacturer. There may be a number of military advisers in Syria, but overall I don't have much confidence in this article. I'd like some serious evidence that Syria has received any S-300s. Iirc they upgraded some of their S-125s to the Pechora-2M level, they got ~50 Pantsyrs, and an unknown number of Buk-M2Es, quite possible some radar systems, EW, and C4I gear for their new toys, but S-300 sales seem quite unlikely.

EDIT: I recall they wanted the system, but at Israeli request, they were denied. If you get more solid info then that, please let me know. Pictures would be nice, a Rosoboroneksport source, would be even better.
There is a lot of chatter and articles on minor web sites. I don't know if you would view this one as more credible?

Report: Russia Sent Syria Advanced S-300 Missiles - Defense/Security - News - Israel National News

Personally I find the absence of a Russian denial the most interesting as they have not been reticent to quash rumours of deals to other countries during the last few years.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
If fighting did break out between Israeli and Syria the Israeli will wiped them out in days. This revolt has been going for months its hurting the Syrian Armed Forces. If this is not resolve in six months Syria is in trouble.
As long as things don't get too out of hand in Syria to the extent that it effects Israel's security, the Israelis are quite happy for things to remain as they are, as they wont have to negotiate about the Golan and Hezbollah's main benefactor, apart from Iran, will be weakened and distracted. At present, the Syrians are worried about the Turks, not the Israelis. Syrian strategy over the years has been to avoid an all out war with Israel, protect itself with its alliance with Iran [which dates back from the Iran/Iraq war when Assad and Saddam were bitter rivals] and put pressure on Israel, by supporting Hezbollah.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
There is a lot of chatter and articles on minor web sites. I don't know if you would view this one as more credible?

Report: Russia Sent Syria Advanced S-300 Missiles - Defense/Security - News - Israel National News

Personally I find the absence of a Russian denial the most interesting as they have not been reticent to quash rumours of deals to other countries during the last few years.
This article cites Al Quds, same as the previous one. Why would it be more reliable?

Again, I'd wait for Rosoboroneskport to confirm it (remember they confirmed the contract with Iran), or for photos to surface. An S-300 missile site can be spotted from google earth. And there was a blog somewhere that detailed locations of thousands of SAM sites around the world. So S-300PMU1 sites would likely be located.

If the missiles had indeed been delivered, Israel, and the West, would know about it from satellite imagery, and in-country intel sources. So the greatest value of these assets would be as a deterrent. Meaning the best way to use them would be to advertise their existence, while concealing the locations for their deployment. Instead we have low-level internet newspapers reporting on the deal, while Russia is denying it. Given that the time frame for deploying the systems, and training the crews, is months rather then weeks, they'd have to have prepared for this well in advance. And here's a better question for you, why would warships deliver them? Never-mind that there is no transport in the "CVBG" that Russia has in the region. Why not (if they wanted to keep this covert) deliver them in unmarked civilian containers? Russia delivers plenty of weapons to Syria, it wouldn't be hard to conceal the S-300 delivery, as a (widely advertised) Bastion-P delivery. Instead, the article claims it was delivered by Russian warships. It sounds like somebody decided to combine two rumors "Russian warships protecting Syria" and "Syria has S-300" for extra believability.

I'd wait and see for real evidence. That having been said, such deliveries are not at all impossible. Algeria got S-300PMU1s, and Libya was about to when their civil war broke out. My main point is that we have little (if any) to suggest that such deliveries have/are taking place.
 

lucinator

New Member
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  • #66
This article cites Al Quds, same as the previous one. Why would it be more reliable?

Again, I'd wait for Rosoboroneskport to confirm it (remember they confirmed the contract with Iran), or for photos to surface. An S-300 missile site can be spotted from google earth. And there was a blog somewhere that detailed locations of thousands of SAM sites around the world. So S-300PMU1 sites would likely be located.

If the missiles had indeed been delivered, Israel, and the West, would know about it from satellite imagery, and in-country intel sources. So the greatest value of these assets would be as a deterrent. Meaning the best way to use them would be to advertise their existence, while concealing the locations for their deployment. Instead we have low-level internet newspapers reporting on the deal, while Russia is denying it. Given that the time frame for deploying the systems, and training the crews, is months rather then weeks, they'd have to have prepared for this well in advance. And here's a better question for you, why would warships deliver them? Never-mind that there is no transport in the "CVBG" that Russia has in the region. Why not (if they wanted to keep this covert) deliver them in unmarked civilian containers? Russia delivers plenty of weapons to Syria, it wouldn't be hard to conceal the S-300 delivery, as a (widely advertised) Bastion-P delivery. Instead, the article claims it was delivered by Russian warships. It sounds like somebody decided to combine two rumors "Russian warships protecting Syria" and "Syria has S-300" for extra believability.

I'd wait and see for real evidence. That having been said, such deliveries are not at all impossible. Algeria got S-300PMU1s, and Libya was about to when their civil war broke out. My main point is that we have little (if any) to suggest that such deliveries have/are taking place.
CNS - Cyprus - The Russian S-300PMU-1 TMD System

also Jane's Strategic Weapons Systems Issue 24
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
According to Jane�s Strategic Weapons Systems Issue 24, the S-300P has been exported to Belarus, Bulgaria, China, Croatia, Czech Republic, Iran, Slovakia, Syria, and Ukraine. It also states that there are unconfirmed reports of the S-300P being exported to Bosnia, Hungary, Jordan, and Kuwait.
Well it's wrong because it lists Iran, and we basically know they did not receive the system. I would consider "deliveries" to Syria equally suspect.
 

Alex David

New Member
Ok. So, let's just clear some things up. I'm a Syrian, but that doesn't mean that I'm going to side up with anyone over here. As far as anything goes, I'm neutral. Below are links to delegations' reports that have visited Syria in the times of the crisis.

This report is from Father Patrick Henry Reardon, who was part of a delegation to Syria in September 2011.

[Mod edit: Link deleted.]

And below a report by an Indian presswoman who was part of an Indian delegation to Syria and she wrote the reality of what is happening in Syria away from Western media spotlights.

[Mod edit: Link deleted.]


This comes from people who have actually visited the country with some visiting certain areas without informing the government.

*I'm sorry for posting this message with the links, but they are totally safe and verified.

Mod edit: Ban issued for violations of forum rules where prior Mod Warning in another thread was deleted. Further, while DT is an international defence forum, it is not the appropriate venue to lobby for or against other countries, groups etc. If such behavior continues, further punative action can be taken.
-Preceptor
 
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prince99x

Banned Member
HI EVERYBODY.
first i hope that the fourm accept syrian as members.
second the war in syria is a city gangs,hide and seek,alqaada<the base> .type of war.between the main army and the so called free army<thy might be free from prison,they might be syrian ,but for sure the are gangs not army at all>.and so far after 11 MONTHES the syrian armed forces had showed agreat ablity to fight in iregular war by:
1-SO LITTLE DEATHS<2000 UNTIL NOW>
2-COMPLETEING SEVERAL SPECIAL MISSON<LIKE "CUPTRE" {HISSEN HARMOSH}/THE FOUNDER OF THE FREE SYRIAN ARMY/>
3-"CUPTRE" ALOT OF WEAPONS IN DIFFRENT KINDS EVEN ISRAEL-MADE UZI AND BOMBS.IMEAN ALOT ALOT OF WEAPONS SHIPS <THOUSANDS>
4-DO NOT LET THE FREE SYRIAN ARMY <AS THEY CALL THEM SELF<CONTROL ANY AREA<LIKE HIMS.DARAA.HAMA.BANIAS.TL KALKH IN HIMS>
5-WE EVEN STOP THE TRANSMIT OF GERMAN ADVANCED SHIP
6-WE DID NOT SHOW YOU ANY THING OF OUR EQUIPMENT JUST FEW T72 AV ERA AND SOME BMP3 .
WIAT FOR MY SECOND POST
 

lucinator

New Member
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  • #72
well it seems that the Arab League inspectors have fled the country. There is currently a UN resolution being drafted, though Russia seems likely to veto it. Violence has really escalated over the last few days and if the resolution passes it will give the go-ahead for a military intervention if Assad does not step down.
 

Pendekar

New Member
well it seems that the Arab League inspectors have fled the country. There is currently a UN resolution being drafted, though Russia seems likely to veto it. Violence has really escalated over the last few days and if the resolution passes it will give the go-ahead for a military intervention if Assad does not step down.
If Assad step down, the suppressed Muslim Brotherhood will most likely rise to prominence just like in Egypt.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
If Assad step down, the suppressed Muslim Brotherhood will most likely rise to prominence just like in Egypt.
Yep but Assad isn't going to step down willingly is he? This is going to be a bloodbath, a long and bloody civil war. You know I can see some of the logic of Chinese and Russian reasons for using their veto. It is one thing to call for cessation of hostilities but a totally different one calling for a regime change. A call for a cessation of hostillities is not seen as interferenc in the internal affairs of a state. However, calling for a regime change is and that is diplomatically dangerous. Don't get me wrong I totally abhor what the Syrian government is doing to its own people, but I just have concerns about enforcing a remit that states regime change. I think it would be very close to breaching internationa law and would set a precedent that could be misuse in the future. Then even if the remit was passed, how are they going to enforce it? Syria is not like Libya with an untried disorganiosed military.
 

lucinator

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Look I know many people dislike they idea of armed intervention or Chaos that comes from governmental collapse but given the escalation of the post veto violence can we(countries other than russia and china) really sit by and do nothing if the international community as a whole doesn't do anything. Isnt the whole purpose of the UN to prevent indiscriminate shelling of civilians.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Look I know many people dislike they idea of armed intervention or Chaos that comes from governmental collapse but given the escalation of the post veto violence can we(countries other than russia and china) really sit by and do nothing if the international community as a whole doesn't do anything. Isnt the whole purpose of the UN to prevent indiscriminate shelling of civilians.
We don't have a lot of choice. We cannot go in without a UN mandate and at moment aren't going to get that. Also if UN went in in force I think it would be a very big bloodbath. At this point in time we are damned if we do and damned if we don't.
 

lucinator

New Member
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  • #77
We don't have a lot of choice. We cannot go in without a UN mandate and at moment aren't going to get that. Also if UN went in in force I think it would be a very big bloodbath. At this point in time we are damned if we do and damned if we don't.
You dont need a UN mandate to take military actions, infact most military actions is done without UN mandates, Yugoslavia is a good example where russia vetoed a UN resolution yet several world players acted anyway to stop a genocide.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Look I know many people dislike they idea of armed intervention or Chaos that comes from governmental collapse but given the escalation of the post veto violence can we(countries other than russia and china) really sit by and do nothing if the international community as a whole doesn't do anything. Isnt the whole purpose of the UN to prevent indiscriminate shelling of civilians.
Actually that isn't the whole purpose of the UN. Nor does the UN represent the international community as a whole. The international community doesn't really exist as a whole.

You dont need a UN mandate to take military actions, infact most military actions is done without UN mandates, Yugoslavia is a good example where russia vetoed a UN resolution yet several world players acted anyway to stop a genocide.
NATO scraped together forces by half-squadrons of aircraft and individual ships, for the Libya operation. That was with a UN mandate. Unless one or two of the big players are willing to actually carry their weight, and make this happen, it'll be very hard to make anything happen without UN approval.
 

Herodotus

New Member
You dont need a UN mandate to take military actions, infact most military actions is done without UN mandates, Yugoslavia is a good example where russia vetoed a UN resolution yet several world players acted anyway to stop a genocide.
This isn't quite accurate. Customary international law has changed the way states view war. Yes, technically nothing bad will happen to any country who does decide to attack Syria because there is still anarchy within the international system...but most states are very very reluctant to commit to the use of force without UN authorization.

Additionally you are wrong about Russia "vetoing" a UN resolution on Yugoslavia (I assume you mean the Serbia/Kosovo war). There was no veto because there was no resolution proposed. There was the potential threat of a nay vote so the US/NATO circumvented the UN (some would say this was illegal).
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
If Assad step down, the suppressed Muslim Brotherhood will most likely rise to prominence just like in Egypt.
Which is something the West would not like to happen. With regards To Syria, lets bear in mind that though what happened in Hama in 1982, was a huge tragedy and was a war crime, it was the Muslim Brotherhood that started an undeclared war against the Assad government. Prior to Rifat Assad sending in his tanks and artillery, the Muslim Brotherhood had already started killing Baath supporters and their families. In Egypt however, the Muslim Brotherhood has been used as a convenient scapegoat by Mubarak, to allay the fears of the West, as an excuse to limit the amount of democracy his citizens could receive.
 
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