Syrian Internal Conflict

[Ben Solo]

They go in to houses take the men out and "arrest" them or shoot protesters on the streets thats it.
About my grammar,im not english this is the best i know so relax.
Is the topic about grammar?

 

[firefox007]

"Its just a bluf on the russian side,what can they do?"

The Mediterranean cruise had been planned for months before the Syrian mess started. It's mostly unrelated.

The resolution appears toothless, and directed at preempting a more decisive resolution.

But right now the Russian carrier Admiral Kuznetsov, with attendant ships, is sheltering in British waters, riding out a North Sea storm en route to Syria; to show their Flag & support of their one-time client Syria.

Shades of Russian problems en route to Japan in 1905?

Nevertheless, the Putin regime is on an aggressive course w/regard to the west & NATO. Flight incursions with the older Bear bombers are well up, again more testing of NATO tolerances. Same with Russian submarine activity. It is not in NATO's interest to pretend these thing are not happening, or bury one's head in the sand. If the Russian carrier group proceeds into the Med., it should be shadowed or harassed constantly by US 6th Fleet; but more importantly, by Turkey & other NATO partners; Greece, and by France, with its own very serious Med. interests. If Putin is not made to understand NATO takes its duties in its own Home areas with utmost serious-ness, Russians are just historically emboldened to undertake further active military measures.

 

[firefox007]

Russian Carrier Group on the move.

Its just a bluf on the russian side,what can they do?
The US has also many ships there so np,i think Assad asked them to show some muscle but wont help.
If there comes a war it will be a big one,lets hope not.

Destroyer keeps watch on Russian carrier (Great Britain)
British Forces News ^ | 14 December 2011


Destroyer keeps watch on Russian carrier.



Royal Navy destroyer has rushed to intercept a flotilla of Russian ships off Scotland in a return to Cold War tensions.

The battlegroup, headed by aircraft carrier the Admiral Kuznetsov, is understood to have sought shelter from a storm in the Firth of Moray.

The Admiral Kuznetsov is en route to Syria, in a show of Russian support for the country’s under-fire regime. Along with destroyer escort she has diverted toward the Scottish coast, apparently to take shelter from North Sea storms.

At 65,000 tons the Admiral Kuznetsov is roughly the size of Britain’s long awaited new carriers. Built at the height of the Cold War, she is armed with Sukhoy SU 33 fast jets, KA-27 anti submarine warfare helicopters and Granit - NATO designation “Shipwreck” anti ship missiles.

sorry no link, but I haven't reached 10 posts yet, so....Nevertheless these Russian ships must be closely watched; this is NATO Home areas!

 

[Feanor]

But right now the Russian carrier Admiral Kuznetsov, with attendant ships, is sheltering in British waters, riding out a North Sea storm en route to Syria; to show their Flag & support of their one-time client Syria.

Shades of Russian problems en route to Japan in 1905?

Nevertheless, the Putin regime is on an aggressive course w/regard to the west & NATO. Flight incursions with the older Bear bombers are well up, again more testing of NATO tolerances. Same with Russian submarine activity. It is not in NATO's interest to pretend these thing are not happening, or bury one's head in the sand. If the Russian carrier group proceeds into the Med., it should be shadowed or harassed constantly by US 6th Fleet; but more importantly, by Turkey & other NATO partners; Greece, and by France, with its own very serious Med. interests. If Putin is not made to understand NATO takes its duties in its own Home areas with utmost serious-ness, Russians are just historically emboldened to undertake further active military measures.

Silly, to put it mildly. This is nothing like the 1905 situation with Japan. Flight of Russian bombers are basic training for the crews of the planes. You don't seriously expect a country to maintain a bomber fleet without training? The same applies to submarines, and even to the Kuznetsov cruise. The Kuznetsov has been making long range voyages almost every year for a little while now. This one is no different. Escorting them, as they will most certainly be, will not deter future trips of the sort, nor will it send any meaningful political message to Russian leadership.

 

[ngatimozart]

To summarize, a month ago the Smetliviy Patrol Ship visited Tartus but it's already gone, now Kuznetsov and Chabanenko are en route there. Those are the three ships that the media is talking about.
.

Have the Kuznetsov, and the Admiral Chabanenko moved on from sheltering off 30nm off the Scottish coast or are they still there? If Tartus is indeed the intended destination what do you think Russia has to gain by those ships being there, especially as it appears that situation within Syria seems to be deteriorating each day? Just to throw something else into the mix, is this visit to Tartsus possibly a message to Israel and the US about their ramping up the talk of hostilities with Iran?

 

[gazzzwp]

On the subject of the dreaded S-300 system whether or not they are in Syrian (or indeed Iranian) hands;

Has this system actually been tested in a combat situation? The internet is choked at the moment with the alledged virtues of Russian missile systems and their abilities to take down stealth aircraft, evade AMD and sink US carriers.

There is a massive distance between theory and practise particular in matters of war.

 

[Feanor]

Have the Kuznetsov, and the Admiral Chabanenko moved on from sheltering off 30nm off the Scottish coast or are they still there? If Tartus is indeed the intended destination what do you think Russia has to gain by those ships being there, especially as it appears that situation within Syria seems to be deteriorating each day? Just to throw something else into the mix, is this visit to Tartsus possibly a message to Israel and the US about their ramping up the talk of hostilities with Iran?

Well Russia has been making regular visits to Tartus for the last few years. In this case I suspect that the task-force may be used to deter the rebels from trying to do anything to the Russian facilities, and if all else fails, possibly evacuate the base. Russia is certainly willing to go further to protect Syria, then Libya, as Syria is a fairly loyal Russian client-state. That having been said, the VMF ships going there currently are a rather mediocre show of force, at best. For example the Kuznetsov is only carrying 8 Su-33s on board.

 

[gazzzwp]

Well Russia has been making regular visits to Tartus for the last few years. In this case I suspect that the task-force may be used to deter the rebels from trying to do anything to the Russian facilities, and if all else fails, possibly evacuate the base. Russia is certainly willing to go further to protect Syria, then Libya, as Syria is a fairly loyal Russian client-state. That having been said, the VMF ships going there currently are a rather mediocre show of force, at best. For example the Kuznetsov is only carrying 8 Su-33s on board.

Reminds me of when the Monterey entered the Black Sea after the Georgia episode. Quite exposed in that area from possible air attack yet to do so the Russians risked starting a major conflict. These thinkers are largely symbolic.

 

[gf0012-aust]

They go in to houses take the men out and "arrest" them or shoot protesters on the streets thats it.
About my grammar,im not english this is the best i know so relax.
Is the topic about grammar?

clarity of thought helps everyone participate.

if your first lang is not english then that explains things, but it then becoms important to give detail and context so others can also appreciate what you're seeking to expkand upon

welcome to the forums, introducing yourself on the members section is worthwhile, that way it also provides others with an idea of where you're from etc, so you've done the meet and greet, but no detail on where from etc... this is always useful

 

[Sampanviking]

actually I think the issue is more about the west not wanting to amp up the turks.

they regard themselves as the elder statesman of that region by historical right and have not been shy about mobilising their own forces on the syrian border to send a message, they've done this at least 3 times in the last 5 years.

there's some idealogical jockeying going on between the two historical giants, Egypt and Turkey and I think everyone is nervous about upsetting that apple cart.

the arab league has long been encouraged to exercise a more robust role between members, but they've consistently taken the "non interventionist" approach as its been culturally comfortable as well as strategically convenient, they're now at the point where they can't continue to sit back and be seen as endorsing the behaviour because they then give license to protestors in their own countries arguing that they're ineffectual.

so, yes, in sme ways its about pre-empting "the west", but I think the bigger game is about the local politics

the turks however are the only local game in town that actually frightens the syrians because they have actual evidence of turkish impatience in the past. the kurds have provided the turks with hot pursuit excuses regularly in the past, so the syrians know full well that the turks are not afraid to cross over

Well I am glad it was you that brought up the matter of Turkey (and just before Christmas )

I think the answer to the Turkey question is a real dog that has not barked in the night.
I have been following a lot of analysis of the external regional power plays, most of which boil down to the Saudi/Iran Sunni/Shia contest and how Syria falls into line with pressures from Lebanon to Afghanistan which seem out to ignite regional sectarian violence between the two.

The dog that did not bark is in this instance, the Kurds, who are conspicuous in the absence from being discussed in most papers recently produced.

While I would no pretend to be a ME expert, I think it is not rocket science to predict that any deterioration between Sunni and Shia relations, improves the position of the Kurds as a viable and stabilising factor in he region and moves the Kurdish cause forward by a significant amount.

This would not be good news for Ankara, to put it mildly.

For Turkey to support pushing for further agitation and instability, especially along Sectarian lines, would be tantamount to voting for er............. Christmas?

 

[Feanor]

Interesting videos of the Bastion-P and other ASMs in action, also apparently the Buk-M2E that Syria received.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVwlpaUfRYw&feature=player_embedded"]ВМС СÐР провели учение Ñ Ð±Ð¾ÐµÐ²Ð¾Ð¹ Ñтрельбой - YouTube[/nomedia]

You can see the Bastions towards the end of this video. The Buks are about 2/3rds of the way through the second video.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nuDISjnJ1BQ&feature=player_embedded"]ВВС, ПВО СÐР провели чение Ñ Ð±Ð¾ÐµÐ²Ð¾Ð¹ Ñтрельбой - YouTube[/nomedia]

 

[gazzzwp]

The Russian naval flotilla has apparently arrived;

Russian navy in Syria: Thorn in US side — RT

Interesting that virtually every press report on this website contains anti western sentiment and increasingly so; RT is a state run media organisation. I agree that this a political and not military issue, but it does amaze me why there is so much intense antagonism and rhetoric flying around at the moment.

If the west wanted to strike Syria it could easily have done so while the Russian fleet was anchored off Scotland. I strongly suspect that the west will leave this one to play out and not get involved militarily.

 

[My2Cents]

Interesting that virtually every press report on this website contains anti western sentiment and increasingly so; RT is a state run media organisation. I agree that this a political and not military issue, but it does amaze me why there is so much intense antagonism and rhetoric flying around at the moment.

Putin seems have gone back to the old ‘zero-sum-game’ politics of the Cold War, i.e. if it is bad for the USA/NATO it is good for Russia/USSR. Russia has become increasingly uncooperative, even contrary, on most issues in the last year. The question is whether this was the way he saw things all along, but hid it when he was president, or if it is just rhetorical attempts to create a us-vs.-them politic because of his rising unpopularity at home when he is running to get elected president again.

Syria is Russia’s last real ally in the Arab world. Iran is not Arab, and the Russians don’t trust them to take their interests into account anyway. But Russia’s continued support for Syria has undermined their relations with the other Arab countries, and this is becoming an all-or-nothing game for them. Their hope is probably that by standing by the Assad’s through thick-and-thin that they can once again establish themselves as more dependable allies than the west in the eyes of 3rd world oligarchs.

As for the article itself, the primary source appears to be Paul Craig Roberts, an economist that served in the Treasury during the Reagan administration. He is a 911 conspiracy supporter, and, naturally, has been an extreme critic of US foreign policy for the last 2 decades.

 

[Feanor]

I'm not sure Putin is the one making the decisions. Nor is Syria Russia's only bet in the region (Jordan, for example). However the point is that Syria is one of the few real client states Russia has left. So they are willing to go much further to save them. That having been said, I'm not sure why you see Russian behavior as having changed over this last year. They let the UN resolution on Libya go through, essentially throwing Gaddafi under the bus. They also haven't been particularly supportive of Iran. Sure they sold some weapons here and there to people the West doesn't like, but that's juts the market niche they operate in.

Their stance on Syria is more or less in line with their general stance. I strongly suspect that there was a backroom deal of some sort whereby Russia allowed the Libyan resolution to go through, in exchange for leaving Syria alone.

 

[lucinator]

On the subject of the dreaded S-300 system whether or not they are in Syrian (or indeed Iranian) hands;

Has this system actually been tested in a combat situation? The internet is choked at the moment with the alledged virtues of Russian missile systems and their abilities to take down stealth aircraft, evade AMD and sink US carriers.

There is a massive distance between theory and practise particular in matters of war.

Yes Syria has the S-300, though in limited numbers. As for your internet rumors...

1.no so far it has not been used in combat
2.It cant really deal with stealth aircraft, that's more s-500 territory. Not really that good at evading AMD (compared to newer systems).
3.Under no circumstances could it sink a US carrier, for one thing it was not designed to do so (it's a SAM after all) nor is its warhead powerful enough to do any sort of real damage.

 

[Feanor]

Syria has the S-300? Since when?

 

[gazzzwp]

Syria has the S-300? Since when?

I recall reading a while ago where Israeli planes flew into Syrian air space deliberately to test the response of their Russian made missile defences. The outcome was that they were nothing to be feared. Was this S300?

 

[Feanor]

I recall reading a while ago where Israeli planes flew into Syrian air space deliberately to test the response of their Russian made missile defences. The outcome was that they were nothing to be feared. Was this S300?

No. This was the Pantsyr-S1 (SA-22). A point-ADS intended to support S-300 class systems. Iirc 50 of them were delivered to Syria. Given their Buk-M2E acquisitions, I suspect the two will be used in tandem.

 

[Sampanviking]

Syria has the S-300? Since when?

There has been a lot of talk on the subject recently of which the linked article is typical.

Russian Navy backs Syria, delivers weapons and S-300 air defense system | World Tribune

 

[Feanor]

Al Quds asserted that the Russian
military has been installing advanced radar systems around all key Syrian
military and industrial sites to prevent air strikes.

Huh? I know Syria's been on a shopping spree for Russian GBAD lately, but it wouldn't be the Russian military installing them. They would be delivered by the manufacturer. There may be a number of military advisers in Syria, but overall I don't have much confidence in this article. I'd like some serious evidence that Syria has received any S-300s. Iirc they upgraded some of their S-125s to the Pechora-2M level, they got ~50 Pantsyrs, and an unknown number of Buk-M2Es, quite possible some radar systems, EW, and C4I gear for their new toys, but S-300 sales seem quite unlikely.

EDIT: I recall they wanted the system, but at Israeli request, they were denied. If you get more solid info then that, please let me know. Pictures would be nice, a Rosoboroneksport source, would be even better.