South Korean navy ship sunk by North?

swerve

Super Moderator
...
China would not want to get involved militarily in an S.Korean/N.Korean punch up, they would have nothing to gain. But, they could finish up with a massive N.Korean refugee surge of million's of N.Koreans fleeing from the war, and on the other hand at the moment they have a 'communist' N.Korean neighbour, they may not be so happy with a 'democratic' S.Korean neighbour.......
Agreed about Chine not wanting to get involved. The only prospect of Chinese involvement I can see (& I'm not saying it would happen, only that it's possible) would be to occupy border areas after a N. Korean collapse, officially to restore order & enable delivery of aid to refugees, but in reality to keep both those refugees & US & S. Korean troops away from the border, & as a bargaining chip in a post-war settlement, in which they'd want US withdrawal.

IMO China would be quite happy with a S. Korea-style united Korea, as long as it had no US troops on its soil & was no longer allied with the USA. S. Korea is one of China's biggest trading partners, & a border open to trade would be of immense economic benefit to what is now a rather depressed region of China.

But - I am sure China is very worried about the possible impact of a war (refugees, as you say), & would be deeply unhappy at the prospect of US troops in a country on their borders, or having a significant land border with a US ally.
 

LancasterBomber

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
Agreed about Chine not wanting to get involved. The only prospect of Chinese involvement I can see (& I'm not saying it would happen, only that it's possible) would be to occupy border areas after a N. Korean collapse, officially to restore order & enable delivery of aid to refugees, but in reality to keep both those refugees & US & S. Korean troops away from the border, & as a bargaining chip in a post-war settlement, in which they'd want US withdrawal.

IMO China would be quite happy with a S. Korea-style united Korea, as long as it had no US troops on its soil & was no longer allied with the USA. S. Korea is one of China's biggest trading partners, & a border open to trade would be of immense economic benefit to what is now a rather depressed region of China.

But - I am sure China is very worried about the possible impact of a war (refugees, as you say), & would be deeply unhappy at the prospect of US troops in a country on their borders, or having a significant land border with a US ally.
Excellent post. I concur. I think for the Chinese there is a comforting predictability in their bilateral relationship with North Korea. It is a useful 'buffer zone' for them against potential (perceived) US influence at their border.

To be fair to China I dont think they see everything about the world through the prism of 'potential US military/intelligence interference'. The last thing they want is a humanitarian clusterf&^k on their doorstep and having to clean up the mess. They appear to want, justifiably so, to get on with their infrastructure programs to support domestic demand in their economy.

Having 10 million starving North Koreans rocking up on your doorstep asking to come in would be the quintessential Chinese definition of a 'bad day in Bosnia'.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
I think for the Chinese there is a comforting predictability in their bilateral relationship with North Korea. It is a useful 'buffer zone' for them against potential (perceived) US influence at their border.
Agreed. They probably find Kim Jong Il & his gang irritating & inconvenient, but preferable to some of the alternatives.
 

Beatmaster

New Member
Just an idea, because some of the posters mentioned a seamine or a torpedo but could it be also sabotage?
And if its was a Nkorean effort to sink the corvette then i believe that Skorea will take actions.
Regardless who fault this is, imo i think that tentions will rise and that could have bad impact on both nations specially because Nkorea did not play the past years by the book, So if this is a Nkorea action then this would be antoher blow to the relations between both camps.
 

defenceckrwl

New Member
the most recent update

As of now, it is almost certain that North Korea has masterminded this torpedo attack.

(1) No possibility whatsoever of a lost mine explosion: around the place where the ship got attacked, there were no lost or stray mines. All the mines set up in the 1970s were "castrated", meaning the electric lines were cut off, which are the only way of exploding the mines. (Without electricity, they won't explode.)

(2) The sunken ship is fully recovered, has been under rigorous inspection by an international team of experts (including Swedish and Australian) and clearly shows signs of "non-contact underwater explosion", i.e., bubble-jet explosion.

(3) Two places near the explosion point recorded "aritificial earthquake", measured 1.5 on the Richter scale, with P-waves showing characteristics of an "artificial earthquake", i.e., an artificial explosion.

Also, the investigative team discovered "aluminum fragments", which possibly came directly from the torpedo. They are still analyzing them. So there is a 100% chance of North Korean involvement, but the task would be just like looking for a needle in a haystack.

What if there is no definive evidence that clearly shows Norkor did it? Still it is almost certain NorKor did it; at least most Korean think so. Possible retaliatory measures from the South are as follows;

(1) Going to the U.N.S.C. would be difficult if there is no smoking gun discovered. Which is highly likely, given the extremely fast currents in the sea waters, and muddy waters.

(2) However, South Korea will consider banning NorKor ships passing the JeZoo straits (the southernmost narrow straits between the Korean peninsula and the JeZoo Island).

(3) Koreans in the Gaesong Industrial complex might be unilaterally evacuated. No food and fertilizer assistance will be allowed for a long time.

(4) Resuming anti-KimCheongIl propaganda against North Korean soldiers. Sending propaganda leaflets over the North sky through balloons.

(5) Massive joint-navy-military drill in the same region.
 

ccL1

New Member
All of those are fairly tame responses to North Korean aggression.

Of course, an escalation leading to war is not desirable, but if the North gets away with merely a slap on the wrist, it will be an encouragement to continue hit-and-run attack policies indefinitely. If the most right-wing anti-NK Lee Myung-bak government doesn't conjure up decisive actions to "punish" the North, then who will?

For sure, there is a bar beyond which war will be an inevitability, but the North will continually press actions to approach that bar, but never cross it.
 

defenceckrwl

New Member
Reality check

All of those are fairly tame responses to North Korean aggression.

Of course, an escalation leading to war is not desirable, but if the North gets away with merely a slap on the wrist, it will be an encouragement to continue hit-and-run attack policies indefinitely. If the most right-wing anti-NK Lee Myung-bak government doesn't conjure up decisive actions to "punish" the North, then who will?

For sure, there is a bar beyond which war will be an inevitability, but the North will continually press actions to approach that bar, but never cross it.
==> For the past sixty years or so, the North has conducted hit-and-run attacks as many as 470 times. Four attacks tried to directly assassinate the previous presidents. One succeeded in only killing the First Lady in the 1970s. Another attack in Rangoon, Myanmar pulverized as many as 17 ministers and secretaries - all highest office holders. The President could narrowly escape the 'planted time-bomb' attack. Myanmar severed its diplomatic relations with the North.

Despite all these terrorist attacks, South Korea has never retaliated. The North has made a military barack out of their whole land. And its modern version of the Spartans - crazy ones at that. Thus, prosperous South Korea has never tried to provoke North Korea.

Military responses or more hostile retorts should be avoided on this occasion as well. For, they are exactly what the North wants now. One of the reasons why the North carried out the attack is their internal instability - to depressurize the otherwise implosive tension within by attacking and turning North Koreans' attention to outside. Recently, the currency reform miserably failed; Kim, Chong-Il himself suffered a massive brain stroke with his health manifestly deteriorating; there is no solid hereditary successor; a strong candidate, Kim, Cheong-Eun, is too young at 27 or 29, and has no support from the old guard; its economy is literally in shambles.

It would rather be quite surprising if the North had not carried out the submarine attack. Given their historical pattern, the South should have foreseen the West Sea attack.

Be that as it may, any military or hard-line reprisal would only re-strengthen their unstable leadership and its knot of the father-to-son power succession. A better approach is to help the North Koreans to wake up to realities and their surrounding worlds. Radios, TVs, magazines, internet, etc. are all strictly banned; so far quite surprisingly sending balloons with hundreds of thousands of leaflets over to the North Korean sky has been proven to be the most effective method of achieving the goal of enlightening the North. Perhaps, as for the South Korean government, it seems best to leave the job in the hands of North Korean defectors and like-minded civic organizations. The latter have been doing a superb job so far. The North even proposed to the South that both have a military talk at Pan-Mun-Jeom along the border. Only to make very strong protests about the leaflet sending balloons. Which clearly shows how effective and threatening the leaflet propaganda has been.

If the U.S. is really concerned about North Korean WMD proliferation, and direct military precision strike is unthinkable, then this kind of "soft" approach can achieve the goal. The North is a very primitive type of a nation-pseudo-state fanatic group. Thus, any attempt to cause fundamental change should also be "primitive". As luck would have it, the attempt doesn't cost much at all. Even at this point in time, voluntary donation from South Korean citizens has made it possible to send millions of leaflets-inside-balloons so far. If billions of those can be flown over to the North, the North will collapse. If any American intelligence officer should read this, please check this U.R.L. and ask any capable translator to get the meaning. Thanks to the regulation of this site, I can't load the U.R.L. I will later load the U.R.L. to help you get the general idea of the movement.

The U.S. doesn't need all those high-tech missiles or bombers. It's balloons, stupid! (no offence intended.)

Isn't it remarkable for the North to buckle under not the supreme power of the U.S. army or anything of sorts but those feathery balloons? Pyong-Yang (the capital of the North) is deeply afraid and concerned about the specter of their people finally realizing that they have all been cheated in a big way. The leaflets are doing that job. The most effective counter-attack seems to be one of the "soft"-type responses - that can generate a series of chemical reaction in the minds of their own people.

As a South Korean, I would bet that within ten years North Korea will collapse, start to follow suit after the Chinese model, and have its stance much more softened towards the South.
 
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==> For the past sixty years or so, the North has conducted hit-and-run attacks as many as 470 times. Four attacks tried to directly assassinate the previous presidents. One succeeded in only killing the First Lady in the 1970s. Another attack in Rangoon, Myanmar pulverized as many as 17 ministers and secretaries - all highest office holders. The President could narrowly escape the 'planted time-bomb' attack. Myanmar severed its diplomatic relations with the North.

Despite all these terrorist attacks, South Korea has never retaliated. The North has made a military barack out of their whole land. And its modern version of the Spartans - crazy ones at that. Thus, prosperous South Korea has never tried to provoke North Korea.

Military responses or more hostile retorts should be avoided on this occasion as well. For, they are exactly what the North wants now. One of the reasons why the North carried out the attack is their internal instability - to depressurize the otherwise implosive tension within by attacking and turning North Koreans' attention to outside. Recently, the currency reform miserably failed; Kim, Chong-Il himself suffered a massive brain stroke with his health manifestly deteriorating; there is no solid hereditary successor; a strong candidate, Kim, Cheong-Eun, is too young at 27 or 29, and has no support from the old guard; its economy is literally in shambles.

It would rather be quite surprising if the North had not carried out the submarine attack. Given their historical pattern, the South should have foreseen the West Sea attack.

Be that as it may, any military or hard-line reprisal would only re-strengthen their unstable leadership and its knot of the father-to-son power succession. A better approach is to help the North Koreans to wake up to realities and their surrounding worlds. Radios, TVs, magazines, internet, etc. are all strictly banned; so far quite surprisingly sending balloons with hundreds of thousands of leaflets over to the North Korean sky has been proven to be the most effective method of achieving the goal of enlightening the North. Perhaps, as for the South Korean government, it seems best to leave the job in the hands of North Korean defectors and like-minded civic organizations. The latter have been doing a superb job so far. The North even proposed to the South that both have a military talk at Pan-Mun-Jeom along the border. Only to make very strong protests about the leaflet sending balloons. Which clearly shows how effective and threatening the leaflet propaganda has been.

If the U.S. is really concerned about North Korean WMD proliferation, and direct military precision strike is unthinkable, then this kind of "soft" approach can achieve the goal. The North is a very primitive type of a nation-pseudo-state fanatic group. Thus, any attempt to cause fundamental change should also be "primitive". As luck would have it, the attempt doesn't cost much at all. Even at this point in time, voluntary donation from South Korean citizens has made it possible to send millions of leaflets-inside-balloons so far. If billions of those can be flown over to the North, the North will collapse. If any American intelligence officer should read this, please check this U.R.L. and ask any capable translator to get the meaning. Thanks to the regulation of this site, I can't load the U.R.L. I will later load the U.R.L. to help you get the general idea of the movement.

The U.S. doesn't need all those high-tech missiles or bombers. It's balloons, stupid! (no offence intended.)

Isn't it remarkable for the North to buckle under not the supreme power of the U.S. army or anything of sorts but those feathery balloons? Pyong-Yang (the capital of the North) is deeply afraid and concerned about the specter of their people finally realizing that they have all been cheated in a big way. The leaflets are doing that job. The most effective counter-attack seems to be one of the "soft"-type responses - that can generate a series of chemical reaction in the minds of their own people.

As a South Korean, I would bet that within ten years North Korea will collapse, start to follow suit after the Chinese model, and have its stance much more softened towards the South.
Another thing to note: South Korea can't respond without worrying about its capitol. Seoul is within range of not one, but two North Korean artillery corp, each with 10-12 brigades. This is ALOT of guns pointing at Seoul.

My take: South Korea realized that they're getting pushed around. Now, in the future, they're going to make some military modifications ranging from strategy to equipment.
 

stoker

Member
==> For the past sixty years or so, the North has conducted hit-and-run attacks as many as 470 times. Four attacks tried to directly assassinate the previous presidents. One succeeded in only killing the First Lady in the 1970s. Another attack in Rangoon, Myanmar pulverized as many as 17 ministers and secretaries - all highest office holders. The President could narrowly escape the 'planted time-bomb' attack. Myanmar severed its diplomatic relations with the North.

Despite all these terrorist attacks, South Korea has never retaliated. The North has made a military barack out of their whole land. And its modern version of the Spartans - crazy ones at that. Thus, prosperous South Korea has never tried to provoke North Korea.

Military responses or more hostile retorts should be avoided on this occasion as well. For, they are exactly what the North wants now. One of the reasons why the North carried out the attack is their internal instability - to depressurize the otherwise implosive tension within by attacking and turning North Koreans' attention to outside. Recently, the currency reform miserably failed; Kim, Chong-Il himself suffered a massive brain stroke with his health manifestly deteriorating; there is no solid hereditary successor; a strong candidate, Kim, Cheong-Eun, is too young at 27 or 29, and has no support from the old guard; its economy is literally in shambles.

It would rather be quite surprising if the North had not carried out the submarine attack. Given their historical pattern, the South should have foreseen the West Sea attack.

Be that as it may, any military or hard-line reprisal would only re-strengthen their unstable leadership and its knot of the father-to-son power succession. A better approach is to help the North Koreans to wake up to realities and their surrounding worlds. Radios, TVs, magazines, internet, etc. are all strictly banned; so far quite surprisingly sending balloons with hundreds of thousands of leaflets over to the North Korean sky has been proven to be the most effective method of achieving the goal of enlightening the North. Perhaps, as for the South Korean government, it seems best to leave the job in the hands of North Korean defectors and like-minded civic organizations. The latter have been doing a superb job so far. The North even proposed to the South that both have a military talk at Pan-Mun-Jeom along the border. Only to make very strong protests about the leaflet sending balloons. Which clearly shows how effective and threatening the leaflet propaganda has been.

If the U.S. is really concerned about North Korean WMD proliferation, and direct military precision strike is unthinkable, then this kind of "soft" approach can achieve the goal. The North is a very primitive type of a nation-pseudo-state fanatic group. Thus, any attempt to cause fundamental change should also be "primitive". As luck would have it, the attempt doesn't cost much at all. Even at this point in time, voluntary donation from South Korean citizens has made it possible to send millions of leaflets-inside-balloons so far. If billions of those can be flown over to the North, the North will collapse. If any American intelligence officer should read this, please check this U.R.L. and ask any capable translator to get the meaning. Thanks to the regulation of this site, I can't load the U.R.L. I will later load the U.R.L. to help you get the general idea of the movement.

The U.S. doesn't need all those high-tech missiles or bombers. It's balloons, stupid! (no offence intended.)

Isn't it remarkable for the North to buckle under not the supreme power of the U.S. army or anything of sorts but those feathery balloons? Pyong-Yang (the capital of the North) is deeply afraid and concerned about the specter of their people finally realizing that they have all been cheated in a big way. The leaflets are doing that job. The most effective counter-attack seems to be one of the "soft"-type responses - that can generate a series of chemical reaction in the minds of their own people.

As a South Korean, I would bet that within ten years North Korea will collapse, start to follow suit after the Chinese model, and have its stance much more softened towards the South.
Great post, if your concept works it would be the cheapest and best way to destroy the North Korean ogre.

But, the shadow in the background on all this of course is China.

I believe that there has been some intensive investments by Chinese business interest's in to North Korean infrastructure/factories/ etc.

If this investment on a large scale is going to be carried out by the Chinese, it is going to make the whole scenario a lot more complicated.

The Chinese have, and are continueing to, make massive investments in African countries, they have also move 100,000's of Chinese workers/technicians in to these African countries to runn their Chinese owned factories/mines/businesses.

This naturally has given them massive clout in the African arean.

The Chines are very astute and pragmatic people with 1000's of years of experience behind them, they plan ahead for a hundred year's while we are content to plan for ten years.

So what ever happens in North Korea is going to involve what ever the Chinese mandarins have planed for in regards to Korea's future.

I would appreciate your views on this.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Jung Sung-ki said:
Minister vows retaliation

Defense Minister Kim Tae-young said Sunday that retaliation over the sinking of the Cheonan must be carried out. Kim's remarks came on the heels of Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Kim Sung-chan's reprisal pledge made during last week's funeral for the 46 dead sailors from the mysterious sinking of the frigate on March 26.

The Navy chief said, ``We'll never forgive whoever inflicted this great pain on us. We will track them down to the end and we will, by all means, make them pay.''

``I agree with Adm. Kim,'' the defense chief told a KBS television program aired nationwide. ``After finding the cause of the incident, we should pay back those responsible for killing our sailors. That's my opinion.''

...
I'm watching the latest developments with interest, as the Cheonan incident itself is linked to the Nov 2009 skirmish. Let's see how the response will be calibrated by the Republic of Korea (ROK).

IMO:

Deterence = military capability x ability/will to use force​

If there is no will to use force, there is no deterence - which is why the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) continues to commit acts of war against ROK. Unfortunately, there are rather nasty consequences to continued escalation in this case for both ROK and DPRK.

Who will blink first, in the stare down that must follow ROK's response? IMO, there's no question that there will be a ROK response - which I hope will include a ROK policy/posture statement for future acts of war by the DPRK, in particular, continued food aid and remittances.
 
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ccL1

New Member
==> For the past sixty years or so, the North has conducted hit-and-run attacks as many as 470 times. Four attacks tried to directly assassinate the previous presidents. One succeeded in only killing the First Lady in the 1970s. Another attack in Rangoon, Myanmar pulverized as many as 17 ministers and secretaries - all highest office holders. The President could narrowly escape the 'planted time-bomb' attack. Myanmar severed its diplomatic relations with the North.

Despite all these terrorist attacks, South Korea has never retaliated. The North has made a military barack out of their whole land. And its modern version of the Spartans - crazy ones at that. Thus, prosperous South Korea has never tried to provoke North Korea.

Military responses or more hostile retorts should be avoided on this occasion as well. For, they are exactly what the North wants now. One of the reasons why the North carried out the attack is their internal instability - to depressurize the otherwise implosive tension within by attacking and turning North Koreans' attention to outside. Recently, the currency reform miserably failed; Kim, Chong-Il himself suffered a massive brain stroke with his health manifestly deteriorating; there is no solid hereditary successor; a strong candidate, Kim, Cheong-Eun, is too young at 27 or 29, and has no support from the old guard; its economy is literally in shambles.

It would rather be quite surprising if the North had not carried out the submarine attack. Given their historical pattern, the South should have foreseen the West Sea attack.

Be that as it may, any military or hard-line reprisal would only re-strengthen their unstable leadership and its knot of the father-to-son power succession. A better approach is to help the North Koreans to wake up to realities and their surrounding worlds. Radios, TVs, magazines, internet, etc. are all strictly banned; so far quite surprisingly sending balloons with hundreds of thousands of leaflets over to the North Korean sky has been proven to be the most effective method of achieving the goal of enlightening the North. Perhaps, as for the South Korean government, it seems best to leave the job in the hands of North Korean defectors and like-minded civic organizations. The latter have been doing a superb job so far. The North even proposed to the South that both have a military talk at Pan-Mun-Jeom along the border. Only to make very strong protests about the leaflet sending balloons. Which clearly shows how effective and threatening the leaflet propaganda has been.

If the U.S. is really concerned about North Korean WMD proliferation, and direct military precision strike is unthinkable, then this kind of "soft" approach can achieve the goal. The North is a very primitive type of a nation-pseudo-state fanatic group. Thus, any attempt to cause fundamental change should also be "primitive". As luck would have it, the attempt doesn't cost much at all. Even at this point in time, voluntary donation from South Korean citizens has made it possible to send millions of leaflets-inside-balloons so far. If billions of those can be flown over to the North, the North will collapse. If any American intelligence officer should read this, please check this U.R.L. and ask any capable translator to get the meaning. Thanks to the regulation of this site, I can't load the U.R.L. I will later load the U.R.L. to help you get the general idea of the movement.

The U.S. doesn't need all those high-tech missiles or bombers. It's balloons, stupid! (no offence intended.)

Isn't it remarkable for the North to buckle under not the supreme power of the U.S. army or anything of sorts but those feathery balloons? Pyong-Yang (the capital of the North) is deeply afraid and concerned about the specter of their people finally realizing that they have all been cheated in a big way. The leaflets are doing that job. The most effective counter-attack seems to be one of the "soft"-type responses - that can generate a series of chemical reaction in the minds of their own people.

As a South Korean, I would bet that within ten years North Korea will collapse, start to follow suit after the Chinese model, and have its stance much more softened towards the South.
That's a great and well thought out post, but I don't think balloons are the ultimate solution. They definitely do help, but I don't think they will lead to a popular revolution of any sort. North Korea is a paranoid state -- neighbours are afraid of other neighbours ratting them out. In that kind of environment, it is tough to organize any level of revolt against authority. The first instinct of a North Korean disillusioned with his/her government is to flee and defect, not to openly revolt and spread dissent.

As I am Korean as well, though born in Canada, my big assumption is that we can rule out such a collapse through a popular "awakening".

My biggest hope is for Kim Jong-un, if he succeeds his father, realizing that the Juche ideology is a total failure and changes the political and economic landscape with support from the military -- I know it's a very tough sell, but without the military you can't do anything. I think this would be the smoothest route to peace in the Peninsula and the most stablest path to reunification.

My secondary hope would be a troubled succession, with Kim Jong-un not being given legitimate status as leader due to rival claims; e.g., Jang Sung-taek (Kim Jong-il's brother-in-law) or other military brass. An internal war, which could even have the slightest possibility of manifesting into open civil war, could weaken the government and then all possibilities are open (e.g. one side turning to South Korea for backing).

A distant tertiary hope would be a pinpoint military strike (cruise missiles) against the entire North Korean leadership and military brass. Shock and awe on a scale larger than what was done in Iraq in 2003, but this plan is dependent on so many unknown variables that failure is high and is fraught with too much risk. It relies too much on intelligence that the US/South Korea probably won't have and if they do have it, it will be unreliable or outdated.

Ultimately, in response to this Cheonan crisis, I think North Korea sits pretty. Maybe further sanctions will be put on the North, but sanctions will do little in a country that's pretty much one of the most poverty-stricken countries in the world already. The North can continue to provoke the South within certains bounds without facing any consequences.

The X-factor, as stated before this post, is China. China can seriously make or break North Korea, but even China risks being an enemy of the North if it doesn't proceed in a cautious manner.
 

Zaphael

New Member
Oddly, I think the Chinese have a better relationship with the South than the North. Its has been known that the DPRK and PRC have had several scuffles along their borders. Also, economic and trade linkages has helped improved ties between the PRC and RoK.

However, it also seems that neither the Chinese, the Americans nor South Koreans would like to see a reunification at the point. For the Chinese, the North is their obvious land buffer between it and the U.S., the South Koreans don't want to foot the bill for reunification, and the Americans pretty much just want a peaceful status quo. So even if there was a popular uprising or a civil war, the South would not make the attempt to reunify Korea given the obvious strategic considerations and costs.

Instead, they might indirectly support a regime change that might gradually turn the country around. Probably a regime that would be friendly to China as well.

Until then, I am not sure if the South Koreans are willing to "retaliate" militarily and possibly restart the Korean war. With tens of thousands of artillery pieces, the North could still raze Seoul though they might not be able to withstand an extended military campaign.

I guess we should keep our eyes peeled for more developments. =)
 
South Korea has no choice, with TWO artillery corps pointing at their capitol, their sitting ducks.

Many people have concluded that if the two countries fought a war, SK and the US would win, but after many losses, and NK would lose. Could this be why NK has refrained from going all out?

Also, do you think Russia would benefit from anything with North Korea? That would be interesting and make things complex.

Although, I don't see how anyone can like NK. They aren't good economic partners.
 

Zaphael

New Member
South Korea has no choice, with TWO artillery corps pointing at their capitol, their sitting ducks.

Many people have concluded that if the two countries fought a war, SK and the US would win, but after many losses, and NK would lose. Could this be why NK has refrained from going all out?

Also, do you think Russia would benefit from anything with North Korea? That would be interesting and make things complex.

Although, I don't see how anyone can like NK. They aren't good economic partners.
The DPRK may be a despotic regime, but like any other regime, it too likes to stay in power. It is not just about the DPRK as an abstract state entity but the leaders of the regime as well. If Kim Jong-il goes all out on ROK, he will lose his regime. People who are in power want to stay in power.

On the other hand, the country also needs money. Prior to the collapse of the Soviet Union, DPRK was propped up by both the Soviets and the Chinese. After the USSR collapsed, Chinese support dwindled as well as Deng began to open up China and focused on its own economic development. It can be speculative but not unfair to say that the DPRK's behavior recently are economically motivated.

Kim Jong-il has played the nuclear blackmail card more than once, and that did win him some economic aid. However, after the financial crises last year, I suspect that most of the countries in the six party talks would not be too enthusiastic about succumbing the blackmail amidst their own recovery. The sinking of the Cheonan coupled with its mobilization of its special forces divisions to the front, the DPRK may be simply trying to raise the stakes of its nuclear blackmail.

I think an important question to ask is whether the DPRK is desperate. Some months ago they ran this huge 100 to 1 devaluation of their Won due to massive inflation. In a state such as the DPRK, it is most likely that they printed too much money and have exported too little. In short, it is likely that the DPRK is going broke and desperately needs aid. Unfortunately, the global economic downturn may mean that its nuclear blackmail cum military threat may not be effective. With a potential power transition coming up, Kim Jong-il needs the economic aid to solidify the power base for his son Jong-un. If the economic aid is not forthcoming, it is plausible that he may attempt it via limited military action against the South.

That would be a calculated gamble. Creating a limited skirmish with the South could raise tensions enough to loosen the purse strings at the six party talks, while diverting dissension within the DPRK's ranks outwards towards the South.

Unfortunately, too little is known about the going ons inside the hermit kingdom to know make any form of non-speculative analysis of their calculations.
 

fretburner

Banned Member
RDX found in Wreckage

This is looking more and more like a torpedo attack. They're now trying to find pieces foreign in what remains of the hull and to finally conclude if it's a mine or a torpedo.

Sokor will almost surely retaliate... but in what form and scale?
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
RDX found in Wreckage

This is looking more and more like a torpedo attack. They're now trying to find pieces foreign in what remains of the hull and to finally conclude if it's a mine or a torpedo.

Sokor will almost surely retaliate... but in what form and scale?
The S. Korean Government already knows the cause of the sinking. They are buying time to formulate a response. IMO, the S. Korean Government and the country's citizens have to bite the bullet and retaliate - in the mean time they should conduct large scale nation wide civil defence drills to demonstrate resolve (it should be loud and it should have full media coverage). If not, nothing stops the N. Koreans from replicating another attack. Failure to retaliate increases the danger of future N. Korean attacks. Sinking one ship at a time cannot be acceptable for the S. Korean navy and I would not want to be in their navy, if their politicians and citizens cannot find the steel to act decisively.

In fact, I would question the wisdom of continuing to station American troops in S. Korea if the citizens of S. Korea are too soft to accept the possibility of war and all the consequences that will arise from a retaliatory action. Superior appeasement will not work and has never worked - that's why the N. Koreans continue to shoot at S. Korea troops and attack S. Korean ships, to demonstrate their resolve. As I said before:

Deterence = military capability x ability/will to use force​

If there is no will to use force, there is no deterence.
 
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Ozzy Blizzard

New Member
The S. Korean Government already knows the cause of the sinking. They are buying time to formulate a response. IMO, the S. Korean Government and the country's citizens have to bite the bullet and retaliate - in the mean time they should conduct large scale nation wide civil defence drills to demonstrate resolve (it should be loud and it should have full media coverage). If not, nothing stops the N. Koreans from replicating another attack. Failure to retaliate increases the danger of future N. Korean attacks. Sinking one ship at a time cannot be acceptable for the S. Korean navy and I would not want to be in their navy, if their politicians and citizens cannot find the steel to act decisively.

In fact, I would question the wisdom of continuing to station American troops in S. Korea if the citizens of S. Korea are too soft to accept the possibility of war and all the consequences that will arise from a retaliatory action. Superior appeasement will not work and has never worked - that's why the N. Koreans continue to shoot at S. Korea troops and attack S. Korean ships, to demonstrate their resolve. As I said before:

Deterence = military capability x ability/will to use force​

If there is no will to use force, there is no deterence.
While I agree in principle you have to entertain the thought that a South Korean response and escalation is exactly what Pyongyang wants. Obviously South Korean military response will have significant political domestically and its unlikely Soul would allow such an escalation to reach a dangerous level, considering the counters the North has currently.

If that is the case then the normal logic behind deterrence may not apply and thus inaction would be a realistic option. Obviously both sides need to know that there is a line of provocation that will elicit a massive response, but at the relatively low level we are talking about a conventional military response may be unwise.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
While I agree in principle you have to entertain the thought that a South Korean response and escalation is exactly what Pyongyang wants. Obviously South Korean military response will have significant political domestically and its unlikely Soul would allow such an escalation to reach a dangerous level, considering the counters the North has currently.

If that is the case then the normal logic behind deterrence may not apply and thus inaction would be a realistic option. Obviously both sides need to know that there is a line of provocation that will elicit a massive response, but at the relatively low level we are talking about a conventional military response may be unwise.
To translate your statement/post = The lives of S. Korean sailors are expendable because of fear. Ironically, failure to retaliate increases the danger and likelihood of future N. Korean attacks.

Would you agree to the above simplification?
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
The US lost over 150 servicemen due to deliberate shoot-downs from 1945 to 1989. They never contemplated going to war over these events.

we're in the chess game here.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
The US lost over 150 servicemen due to deliberate shoot-downs from 1945 to 1989. They never contemplated going to war over these events.

we're in the chess game here.
It's always been a chess game of global proportions - especially during the cold war. For me this incident a test for the citizens of S. Korea - it's their country and they have to decide their level of resolve. IMO, the resolve of the man in the street in Korea will affect the future chess calculus. S. Koreans need to decide what they can accept in N. Korean attacks and where is the line in the sand.

And I ask that question again to you: Are the lives of S. Korean sailors are expendable? Just to get the thinking process started. :)

Note that I did not specify the nature of retaliation. I only suggested an escalation option, which is large scale civil defence exercises.
 
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