Mali Crisis

[My2Cents]

It appears that the majority of what MN Eider had to offer were logistical vehicles rather than combat vehicles.

Makes sense to do so. In the current situation it is likely that the French are having get enough supplies to their troops to support the fast moving offense, while the terrorists are falling back on prepositioned supply dumps.

The AQIM strategy may well be to just survive and keep the conflict going until everyone else gives up. This strategy would appear to be working in Afghanistan, and may be one of their lessons learned. It would explain why they are so ready to retreat ahead of the French advances, the question is will they infiltrate behind the French and attempt to retake control of liberated areas, or just wait for them to leave when the ECOWAS forces arrive?

And remember, each time the AQIM retakes an area it will be trumpeted in the world press as a victory, but when they are pushed out again it will be ignored.

 

[swerve]

I think there's a fundamental difference between the Taliban in Afghanistan & the assorted insurgents in Mali.

Firstly, ethnic disputes. In Afghanistan in 2001, the US et al used the Northern Alliance to do the ground fighting. This was possible because of hostility between the Pashtuns - the largest ethnic group, & the one which the Taliban is overwhelmingly drawn from - and smaller non-Pashtun groups which had managed to retain control of part of the country. In Mali, the insurgents are drawn from a small minority of the population, the Tuareg. The vast majority, the southerners, seem to be overwhelmingly anti-insurgent.

BTW, the main Tuareg nationalist insurgent group (originally allied with, later pushed aside by the Islamic militants) is now trying to dissociate itself from its erstwhile allies. This offers the possibility of recruiting Tuaregs to fight AQIM, if only Bamako will allow them a degree of autonomy.

Secondly, external support. The Taliban have always had secure bases in Pakistan, because of the large Pashtun population there, & because of the machinations of elements of the Pakistani military & political class. AQIM et al don't have any friendly borders to retreat across. There are Tuaregs on the other side of the northern & north-eastern borders, but no friendly governments. The Algerians are hostile & heavily armed. The Nigeriens & Mauritanians are weak militarily, but also hostile.

It's hard to say how much support AQIM has among the Tuaregs. A lot of its fighters are reported to be foreigners, who took advantage of the looted Libyan stockpiles to arm & equip themselves. Can they sustain an insurgency in the desert?

So . . . there are certainly difficulties. Vast areas, mostly unpoliced. Very weak & unstable states. Ethnic quarrels. Poverty. Too many weapons sloshing around. But perhaps it's not as intractable as Afghanistan.

 

[RobWilliams]

UK has deployed 330 troops, but not in a combat role.

BBC News - Mali crisis: 330 UK military personnel sent to West Africa

The UK is to deploy about 330 military personnel to Mali and West Africa to support French forces, No 10 has said.

This includes as many as 40 military advisers who will train soldiers in Mali, and 200 British soldiers to be sent to neighbouring African countries, also to help train the Malian army.

French-led forces are continuing their offensive against Islamist militants who seized northern Mali last year.

International donors have pledged $455.53m (£289m) to tackle militants.

The 330 military personnel comprises of 200 to West African nations, 40 military advisers to Mali, 70 on an RAF Sentinel surveillance aircraft and 20 on a C17 transport plane. None will have a combat role.

A conference taking place in Brussels is expected to decide which countries will contribute troops for an EU military training mission for Mali and discuss details of the mission.

In terms of what the UK may do in the future . . .

Continue to allow the use of one of two C17 transport planes, which are already flying French equipment to and from Mali, for three months. The RAF has also provided a Sentinel surveillance aircraft

Allow the US - which has been involved in airlifting French soldiers and equipment to Mali - to operate air refuelling flights out of Britain

Offer a roll-on, roll-off Merchant Navy ferry to help transport equipment to the French force in Mali. It would dock at a port in a West African state to enable the kit to be moved across land to Mali

Provide £5m to assist in the training of West African forces through two UN funds - £3m directed to Afisma (African-led International Support Mission to Mali) and £2m to support political processes in Mali

Not surprised to see the RoRo on offer, would be quite handy. People have been voicing concerns over mission creep, initially it was 2 C-17s for something like 2 weeks and no UK troops at all deployed, and look where it's slowly going.

 

[kato]

70 on an RAF Sentinel surveillance aircraft

That's one labour-intensive aircraft... what do they do, turn the propellers by hand?

Yeah, yeah, i know. So, where're they gonna station 'em? Dakar, with the ATLs running the surveillance and coordination role now?

 

[RobWilliams]

Last I heard there was a plan for them to initially be deployed to Senegal, but i've got no idea where they plan on basing her after. I mean, they must be moving her deployment because the BBC says "initially" Senegal.