Mali Crisis

[Waylander]

The availability of lots of modern and heavy weapons after the fall of Gadhaffi is defenitely a problem in the Sahara area.

But remember that the Tuaregs were his mercenaries not the opposition's ones...

 

[GEF]

Mali

[

The operation in Mali needs precision and determination to weed off the terrorists from the Sahel region of Africa. I wish more willing nations would be able to contribute logistical materials to finish this task and restore normalcy in this poverty ridden country of West Africa.

Gef



QUOTE=RobWilliams;258019]Not having access to a TV, recent reports about France engaging in Mali was very surprising.

Following the recent escalation with the intervention of the French armed forces in Mali, there has been the death of a French Gazelle pilot which was part of 4th RHFS. Supposedly there are currently 3 French tankers, 6 M2000D & 2 Mirage F1CR deployed in the region conducting airstrikes with Rafales held in reserve and the deployment of 'hundreds' of French soldiers to the region.

The UK has also offered the services of 2 C-17s following a French request, with suggestions from the Minister for Africa suggesting the UK train Mali soldiers. The first reported by SkyNews to be leaving this afternoon.[/QUOTE]

 

[RobWilliams]

RAF deploys a Sentinal R1 aircraft to the region

BBC News - Mali: RAF surveillance aircraft Sentinel deployed

A surveillance aircraft from RAF Waddington has been sent to Mali to support France's military action there, the Ministry of Defence said.

Defence Secretary Philip Hammond said the Sentinel R1 aircraft "has proved its worth in Libya and on an ongoing basis for counter-insurgency operations in Afghanistan".

Two British C17 transport aircraft have already been sent to the region.

Mr Cameron has previously said Britain will not deploy ground troops in Mali.

Anglo-French cooperation seems to be expanding too, according to the following quote

He also said in the House that we would be looking at further French requests for additional logistical and surveillance support for this operation, over and above the two C-17s.

 

[STURM]

The operation in Mali needs precision and determination to weed off the terrorists from the Sahel region of Africa. I wish more willing nations would be able to contribute logistical materials to finish this task and restore normalcy in this poverty ridden country of West Africa.

Problem is, not many African countries have the funds to commit troops to Mali on a protracted basis, unless off course 'richer' countries were willing to foot the bill. France off course was the only country willing to take action and if it wasn't for the French, the 'rebel's would probably have taken Bamako.

The question now is what happens next? Will the Mali government and its foreign 'partners' attempt to find a solution to the problem or just hope that the 'rebels 'and 'terrorists' are truly defeated and will not re-appear at some time in the future when the French and ECOWAS have long left and is the solution going to be by mlitary means alone? And what role will Algeria play?

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices...of-earlier-western-interventions-8457828.html

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices...enas-gas-plant-was-utterly-predictable-845647

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices...l-war-dont-bet-on-a-happy-ending-8454664.html

 

[Menre]

No need for braindead political posts that have no substance to them.

 

[swerve]

Gao taken, the mayor flown back in from Bamako. The airport gives another logistical base. Largest town the rebels had taken.

Timbuktu next.

BTW, the two-thirds of the area of Mali the rebels threw the government out of only has about 10% of the population. I'd guess that at least half the population which had been living under the rebels is now in (at least nominally) government controlled territory now. The area retaken for the government by the French is relatively small, but the most densely populated part of the former rebel territory. It is also the region where sympathy for the rebels is likely to be lowest.

I expect the rest of the Niger river & its towns & farmland to be pretty much rebel-free soon, but most of the rebels to survive, & fall back to the sparsely-populated, mainly Touareg, north.

 

[kato]

The Gao area is also important insofar as the Mali Songhai and Fulani minorities are living in that area, which otherwise mostly live in Niger. They have their own militias that have been fighting against Tuareg militias in the past, often used in a proxy war by the government to contain Tuareg (and, a bit more critically, the whole thing is also fraught with ethnic cleansing ideas and all that).
France and that regiment of Chadian soldiers will need to retain a strong grip on this area lest the Ganda Koy and other militias under the FNLM umbrella regain a foothold there. Otherwise this could get bloody ugly, fast.

 

[Waylander]

And why didnt the braindead US administration prevent the arms from falling in the terrorist hands

Ah, I love it when people sporting the picture of one of the biggest mass murders in history start askig questions with the sole intention of making a certain country look bad...

But for the sake of a civilized discussion I answer nevertheless. How should the US have done that? They had, apart from probably some special forces, no boots on the ground.

In the conflict rebels and loyalists plundered the weapons caches in their respective territories in order to arm every able (and not so able...) man under their command to the teeth. On Gaddafhis side this included several mercenaries besides his loyal troops.

All these weapons are now floating around in Lybia, making it one of the biggest black markets for all sorts of weapons. Apart from that the remaining loyalists and mercenaries took as much with them as they could after the fall of Gaddafhi.

 

[Feanor]

Ah, I love it when people sporting the picture of one of the biggest mass murders in history start askig questions with the sole intention of making a certain country look bad...

But for the sake of a civilized discussion I answer nevertheless. How should the US have done that? They had, apart from probably some special forces, no boots on the ground.

In the conflict rebels and loyalists plundered the weapons caches in their respective territories in order to arm every able (and not so able...) man under their command to the teeth. On Gaddafhis side this included several mercenaries besides his loyal troops.

All these weapons are now floating around in Lybia, making it one of the biggest black markets for all sorts of weapons. Apart from that the remaining loyalists and mercenaries took as much with them as they could after the fall of Gaddafhi.

Well the better, and in my opinion fairer question, is why the West felt the need to intervene in Libya at all. As far as dictators go Gaddafi is far from the worst. If anything he was a known and predictable quantity. Sure he spent his last several years flip-flopping between Russia and France, but other then that there was little if anything wrong with him. Now Libya is an unstable mess, buckets of weapons are floating around the black market and destabilizing the region, and the rebel council is busy squabbling with itself. So unless this was an opportunity shot that went horribly (and predictably) wrong, what (other then political/economic interests) justifies western military action?

 

[Atasas]

..........

 

[STURM]

Now Libya is an unstable mess, buckets of weapons are floating around the black market and destabilizing the region, and the rebel council is busy squabbling with itself. So unless this was an opportunity shot that went horribly (and predictably) wrong, what (other then political/economic interests) justifies western military action?

Not to mention Iraq. The fall of Saddam led to a civil war, the death of thousands of Iraqis, an Iraqi refugee problem in neighbouring countries and the devastation of much of Iraq's infractructure. If Bush and Co had known that 10 years after their invasion, that a Shiite government would rule Iraq and that Iraq/Iran ties would significantly improve, they probably wouldn't have invaded!! The Iranians are extremely grateful to the Bush adminstration for invading Iraq, as fellow Shiites are in now in power and Iranian influence in Iraq is at an all time high.

Many are of the opinion that the worst is over in Mali, now that the French have gone in and the evil fundamentalist terrorist rebels have fled. Something tells me that the ''problem'' is not quite over yet.

 

[swerve]

The problems of chronic political instability, poverty, & neglect of the Touareg north by governments beholden to the non-Touareg regions where >90% of the population live won't go away in a hurry. What this intervention may do is reduce the chaos, at least for a while. If Malians are really, really lucky it may provoke some richer countries to offer some concrete help to straighten themselves out a bit. Maybe. But I won't hold my breath.

I hope the libraries at Timbuktu have survived. There have been very nasty rumours about AQIM treating them the way the Saudis treat anything which may illuminate the history of Islam. I hope not. Those ancient documents deserve a better fate than flames.

 

[Feanor]

Not to mention Iraq. The fall of Saddam led to a civil war, the death of thousands of Iraqis, an Iraqi refugee problem in neighbouring countries and the devastation of much of Iraq's infractructure. If Bush and Co had known that 10 years after their invasion, that a Shiite government would rule Iraq and that Iraq/Iran ties would significantly improve, they probably wouldn't have invaded!! The Iranians are extremely grateful to the Bush adminstration for invading Iraq, as fellow Shiites are in now in power and Iranian influence in Iraq is at an all time high.

Not quite the same. The US maintained troops on the ground in Iraq for a long time, and eventually stabilized and pacified the country. You can agree or disagree with what was done but it's not at all the same as what happened to Libya, where a number of Western nations went on a bombing spree, and then packed up and left. Granted there were serious internal problems prior to Western intervention, but given the situation I don't think it was justified.

Whatever the course the situation in Mali takes, now that France has gone in, I hope they stick around long enough to make sure the place doesn't go to hell.

 

[swerve]

Gao on Saturday, Timbuktu on Monday. They're not hanging around!

Very little fighting, mind you. For the most part, the insurgents have realised that discretion is the better part of valour & legged it.

 

[StobieWan]

No they're not - and apparently a combat drop of parachute troops to the North of the city as well. Hats off to the French, they're cracking on with a will..

 

[Waylander]

It also seems like the french fast and rotary air assets managed to kill lots of technicals so far. The insurgents learned it the hard way not to wait for the last moment to fall back because that's the time when french airpower is waiting for them.

 

[Atasas]

........

 

[RobWilliams]

No they're not - and apparently a combat drop of parachute troops to the North of the city as well. Hats off to the French, they're cracking on with a will..

The French seem to be going into this at full tilt, large troop drop & simultaneous operation against Timbuktu's airport. I'd imagine that - in comparison to armoured convoys - the 'rebels' would have more difficulty with dealing with an airbourne operation.

Here's a couple of interesting links in regard to the drop & the arrival of MN Eider a RoRo vessel & container carrier.

French paratroopers of 2e REP Foreign Legion Parachute Regiment were parachuted on Timbuktu 2801132*-*Army Recognition

Le MN Eider embarque une grosse cargaison de fret militaire à destination du Mali | Mer et Marine

It appears that the majority of what MN Eider had to offer were logistical vehicles rather than combat vehicles.

EDIT: For an interesting bit of reading, i've linked the Wiki article for the French Op Serval, there's an "order of battle" bit in there too.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Serval#Forces_committed

 

[STURM]

Like all rebels, the lightly armed Mali rebels [despite their rhetoric] will try their best to avoid being encircled and destroyed, and will attempt to make a comeback at a later date when circumstances are more favourable to them. The aim of the French is to finish the job, declare mission accomplished, withdraw most of their troops and assets and let troops from ECOWAS maintain a presence.

The question I'm extremely curious about, is whether the Mali government, with French and ECOWAS backing will attempt to find a long term political solution to this problem and seek accommodation with the Tuaregs? On the surface everything looks bright and rosy [but then it usually does at the start doesn't it] - the good chaps have gone in and the bad chaps have legged it - but what happens next in the long term? The French President said that what happened in Algeria justified military action in Mali but if another hostage situation or attack happens again in Algeria and is linked to Mali, what will he say next, especially given that the rebels have already been driven north...

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices...-defence-but-it-isnt-that-simple-8458859.html

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...hes-nothing-like-osama-bin-laden-8466057.html

http://www.agenceglobal.com/index.php?show=article&Tid=2933

http://ericmargolis.com/2012/10/beware-those-wicked-malians/

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2013/01/2013127154355125483.html

 

[Marc 1]

Russia has offered France help with transporting troops to Mali. This is after An-124s belonging to Volga-Dnepr, and reportedly JSC Squadron 224 have already been spotted transporting French troops and vehicles into the country. I understand that a lot of this is posturing, but given extensive participation of both the abovementioned in SALIS and NATO operations in Afghan, is it really completely impossible that actual VVS aircraft could end up involved in this? It certainly would be unprecedented levels of cooperation.

This is interesting - whilst most western countries are not contemplating combat arms (would rather save money/ populations are war weary) - even nations that are not seeing eye to eye on other issues (russia vs nato in Syria for example) - they want to send a message to muslim rebels that the non muslim west will back each other against this type of aggression. Besides, combat forces don't seem to be necessary - the French and Malian forces seem to be wrapping things up nicely.