F-X deal is back on. Brazil back in action
- Thread starter drg
- Start date
Indeed, it certainly seems like an example Saab can point to and say "This is what you could be involved in if you pick the Gripen", like i've said before - indiginous cooperability during the process is a BIG thing for Brazil.
For a country on a budget (especially one reluctant to spend the budget at all, frankly) who wants an aircraft with very few - if any - political strings attached with decent local industry benefits with decent performance and modest multirole capability, you can't go wrong with the Gripen.
The Rafale too, but doesn't sit as well in the 'restricted budget' area as much as the Gripen does. Then as much as Boeing says to the contrary, the politics that comes with the SH will always be there.
It could - ultimately - become an issue of one-upmanship, in that becoming the South American military powerhouse it appears it wants to be, it may decide with the Rafale so as to be equipped with an aircraft which could be - arguably - the best in South America. France can certainly offer the level of ToT + industry benefits Saab could, and seeming as Brazil is already working with France on several big defence projects.
Well IMO it's definitely the outsider.
That's not to say that I don't think it's an extremely capable fighter with proven technology for a decent price, it's just that the Gripen/Rafale would bring more of an operational independence.
Of course, I can't really see who Brazil is defending itself from in the region which may cause the US to impose sanctions or whatever on Brazil so that fear could be a red herring. But it's still a potential legitimate concern.
Doesn't seem to be so much of a problem for Brazil...
In recent years they've bought or upgraded through the US:
Heavily upgraded PC-3 Orions.
Heavily upgraded F-5M Tiger II.
Heavily upgraded A-4 Skyhawks.
C-130H / KC-130H refuellers.
C-137 refuellers.
C-1 Trader refuellers.
Recon variants of the Learjet 35's.
Cessna 208 Caravans.
Harpoon anti-ship missiles.
UH-60L/M Blackhawks helicopters.
MH-16 Seahawks helicopters.
Upgraded M113 APC's.
Upgraded M108 105mm and M-109 155mm howitzers.
M777A2 155mm lightweight howitzers ordered, though yet to be delivered.
Seems to me, Brazil doesn't have too many issues with ordering US sourced kit...
Yup, they've bought plenty of kit for themselves off of the US but the thing with this deal is that (at least in Lula Da Silvas words, although fairly sure Rousseff has the same thinking) was that Brazil should aim to become a big player in terms of defence exports and maintain a thriving defence industry based on native products.
Whilst the issue isn't the F/A - 18 itself (IIRC Panetta has already been very clear that full ToT will be given to Brazil), say if the Brazilians develop other aircraft from the F-18 and may use components from the aircraft (or at least the design of the parts, not neccesarily US built components) on any other derivative then it may come bite them in the ass if they try to export it. It's happened before IIRC with Venezuela with the Tucano, AFAIK the issue wasn't "Grr we don't like Venezuela", it was that there was US components in the Tucano so the sale was blocked.
Like I said, could literally be a needless worry, but it is a worry that Brazil has (or at least had)
note: Of course, this argument could fall flat on it's face if Brazil has exported any of the listed products or things including parts from those products.
For 36x aircraft I don't see domestic manufacturing of any of the 3 contenders as likely, so how they would be in a position to export them anyway, is a bit difficult to comprehend. Components, technology and manufacturing processes definitely, but the entire aircraft, plus engines and systems? No way.
Knock-down kits and local assembly "maybe" but even that will come at a premium.
Of course if the rumoured 100+ order ever eventuates that may change, but given Brazil's struggles to fund even the initial 36 aircraft acquisition, everyone will have to forgive me, if I don't hold my breath waiting for them to buy 100+ modern fighters...
IIRC it's generally be thrown around as 36 airframes now with the "potential for many more" in the future, the number 120 is thrown around alot as it was the figure released by Boeing in '08 + the FAB has already said this competition is meant to replace their Mirage 2000 , F-5M and A1-M with a standardised fighter fleet and given the numbers of the latter 2, 36 airframes doesn't seem to cut it.
That's where I was on about the exportability, as I highly doubt that - if such a buy did occur - that Brazil would be happy with buying them all as-is direct from the manufacturer + the idea is later on to be able to design, market + export their own fighter jets.
They're definitely in a better position to produce the Gripen than any of the others, given the amount of Brazilian industry development already involved in the aircraft. Whilst I suspect it probably won't be "truely" indiginous, I expect they'll want whatever they have the capacity to build in the country (which could be a fair bit) to be built there with the more complex components being shipped from Saab directly. Like I said, industry benefits mean alot to Brazil.
As to it being postponed, shouldn't be surprising, it's been postponed since what, '08? '09?
For a country trying to build 5 SSKs (1 in France, the rest in Brazil i think) and 1 SSN, with heavy assistance from France I suspect - especially in the current economic situation - the defence budget has a lot to deal with at the minute.
The numbers thing might not cut it, but the economic reality says differently. The fact is that 100+ 4th Gen fighters is a USD $10B + plus acquisition, with a much larger support and training bill over the life of the aircraft, even if the premium of domestic manufacturing, licencing etc isn't added to the bill, as Brazil clearly states it wants.
Can anyone see Brazil fronting up $10B+ for a new fighter fleet without a major change in economic circumstances? I don't. It seems to me most likely that they will end up with a multi-tier force of 36-48 tier one fighters and be forced to round out the numbers with a lower tier, AMX type (not the same aircraft, but design ideas - cheap, non high-end multi-roler) and Super Tucanos for COIN, surveillance and light strike operations.
In such an instance, many of their aspirations are not going to meet economic reality...
You need to look at when equipment was bought, how central it was to Brazilian defence, & how politics & economics have changed since.
Also, what's this with "upgraded through the US"?
P-3 - airframes re-lifed & upgraded in Spain by Airbus Military. EADS FITS mission system installed.
F-5M - upgraded in Brazil by Embraer & Elbit, with Italian radars replacing the US originals. Enabled to carry non-US AAMs, replacing AIM-9, & non-US PGMs.
M109A3 - bought from Belgium, upgraded there.
Some things just can't be got elsewhere -
A-4 from Kuwait - well, what else was there on the market that could fly off their new (to Brazil) French carrier? IIRC, refurbished in Brazil by Embraer.
C-1 - who else makes carrier-capable aircraft suitable for AEW & AAR?
And recent?
KC-137 - delivered 1986. To be replaced by the non-US KC-390.
C-130H - also not recent, also to be replaced by KC-390
Learjet 35 - bought in the 1980s
M108, M113 - in service since 1970s.
Brazil isn't actively avoiding buying from the USA, but has definitely been moving away from its past heavy dependence on the USA as its main arms supplier. This is clearly linked to the stated policies of increasing independence & improving indigenous capabilities. Any prospective purchase has to be judged in that light. Fighters are a special case, higher profile than almost anything else. While financial imperatives may end up killing FX-2, it'd be seen as a defeat by many politicians.
BTW, $10bn plus isn't out of the question for Brazil. Its nominal GDP is bigger than India's, for example (& significantly bigger than Russia's), & export earnings 80% of India's - but with a trade surplus, while India has a deficit. India is financing much larger purchases. PPP GDP is about the same as France or the UK. It's not a small or insignificant country.
I was under the impression that Brazils economy is actually fairly stable and substantial, IIRC they displaced the UK as the world's 6th largest economy in December last year so in terms of their economic position they seem IMO to be quite strong (see swerves post for better + more specific info) and definitely in the position to be able to put up this kind of cash if they wanted to. But considering the current projects they've got going on (SSKs + SSNs) which are fairly expensive themselves, they may delay it for several more years in order for the costs to look better in the budget.
Of course, the idea of several tiers of aircraft is entirely possible and plausable, but seeming as they do have the capacity to pay for the aircraft if they wanted too i'm gunna wait until the Brazilians say something official about reductions in numbers.
Interesting development with FX-2, Russian delegation to offer Brazil two options
Russia to pitch T-50 for Brazilian fighter deal
Thought that was pretty cool, but the selection has been postponed recently - again - until 2015. It'd be an interesting contender.
- Purchase of the Su-35, which has previously been rejected from the competition
- Joint development of the PAK-FA
Russia to pitch T-50 for Brazilian fighter deal
Thought that was pretty cool, but the selection has been postponed recently - again - until 2015. It'd be an interesting contender.
Ooops! I was not quite correct. KC-390 will replace C-130, including KC-130. KC-137 will be replaced by Boeing 767s bought second hand & modified in Israel by IAI with Israeli AAR kit. Not quite a purchase of US military equipment.
The other contender for the KC-137 replacement contract was Airbus Military.
Haavarla
Active Member
The Speculation is on:
El Ministro de Defensa de Brasil admite la posibilidad de que el país entre en el proyecto del caza ruso de quinta generación T-50
Can Russia snatch this?
Personly i have my doubt about the F-X tender. But There are other Product on the display.
Seems Russia is doing something right in South America these days..
El Ministro de Defensa de Brasil admite la posibilidad de que el país entre en el proyecto del caza ruso de quinta generación T-50
Can Russia snatch this?
Personly i have my doubt about the F-X tender. But There are other Product on the display.
Seems Russia is doing something right in South America these days..
Depends, IIRC there's been news about attack helo & SAM deals relatively recently so that's good for Russia. Su-35 has been rejected in the past, so unless the details of the offer have changed then don't get your hopes up
It's an interesting idea though, Russian/Indian collaboration shows Russia is happy enough for license production of developments of the aircraft which would be a big plus and AFAIK there's some interesting chatter about a navalised variant in the future which if we all remember is a big deal with this tender. The Navy will base their decision on their upgrade path on what the FAB does.
But I still doubt it. They're unwilling to spend their money on aircraft already developed, tried and tested. Can't imagine it'd be any easier to get them to cough up for PAK-FA.
It's an interesting idea though, Russian/Indian collaboration shows Russia is happy enough for license production of developments of the aircraft which would be a big plus and AFAIK there's some interesting chatter about a navalised variant in the future which if we all remember is a big deal with this tender. The Navy will base their decision on their upgrade path on what the FAB does.
But I still doubt it. They're unwilling to spend their money on aircraft already developed, tried and tested. Can't imagine it'd be any easier to get them to cough up for PAK-FA.
the road runner
Active Member
Looks like SAAB has won the contract to supply Brazil with 36 Gripen fighters..
Brazil picks Sweden’s Gripen fighter jet | Aviation & Air Force News at DefenceTalk
That came out of the blue !
Brazil picks Sweden’s Gripen fighter jet | Aviation & Air Force News at DefenceTalk
That came out of the blue !
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
The price works out to 125m per jet and includes initial spares logistics, training for mechanics and pilots, and flight simulators. The contract also calls for offsets and technology transfers. This latter component must have impressed the Brazilians as the unit cost is by no means inexpensive.
the road runner
Active Member
Jane's is reporting that the purchase by Brazil of Gripen could breath new interest into the Sea Gripen concept.I am just curious ,i would assume 24 Sea Gripen's for Brazil would have a high unit cost to pay for the development costs of the plane.
I just dont think its would be cost effective to develop the Sea Gripen if only 24 Units were purchased for the Brazilian Navy
Brazilian F-X2 deal gives fresh impetus to Saab's Sea Gripen concept - IHS Jane's 360
If the Indian Navy was to jump on board and purchase a number of Sea Gripen's ,it may bring the cost of the Sea Gripen down but a penalty would be paid for the Indian Navy to have another platform and all the associated cost this new platform would bring to the Indian navy.(logistic ,training costs)
I assume the USA spying allegations on Brazil could have cost Boeing the deal.
I just dont think its would be cost effective to develop the Sea Gripen if only 24 Units were purchased for the Brazilian Navy
Brazilian F-X2 deal gives fresh impetus to Saab's Sea Gripen concept - IHS Jane's 360
If the Indian Navy was to jump on board and purchase a number of Sea Gripen's ,it may bring the cost of the Sea Gripen down but a penalty would be paid for the Indian Navy to have another platform and all the associated cost this new platform would bring to the Indian navy.(logistic ,training costs)
I assume the USA spying allegations on Brazil could have cost Boeing the deal.
Brazilian President wasn't happy about it, cancelled a state visit to the US because of it and IIRC a DefMin of hers said words to the effect of "can't do business with a country you can't trust".
Count India out, they saw the Sea Gripen and said no.
Count India out, they saw the Sea Gripen and said no.