my view is that all of their actions are a concatenation process of injecting pause, and thus dislocation of the executive will. they well know that in absolute terms they have no hope of fighting a real blue water navy on USN terms.
They have no capacity to reach out and project a competent fighting ability, they need to stay in range of land based air and GB support.
Their tier one sub force elements for example would be absolutey decimated within a brief period of time.
I don't think the PLAN are that stupid. They still don't have a meaningful capability irrespective of increased build rates, and irrespective of the increase in base technical competency. Having the widgets does not translate to competency at theatre sized prosecution of network fused warfare etc....
At a fleet management level they're absolutely green - and you can't fasttrack those fleet management competencies (eg in under 5 years)
They're slowballing the US and hoping to slip under the radar
I agree, without force projection, how are you going to take your sind to war?
Buinding Nuclear Subs is great, are they going to launch a nuke? Otherwise their subs may trail our CBGs but if they "aren't detected," ad decide to launch (whatever) at a carrier, I think the US would make a point to china that losing their navy, wasn't worth it.
As I said, our family buisness (has grown beyond that) has done business with China for almost 50 yrs. There's a world of difference, in just the last decade, but China's population, at this time (IMO), isn't sustainable. We've done everything possible to try to figure out how they are "making money." Our conclusion, along with most others companies (i.e. Mostly Big Box Stores) is that they aren't.
While major new cities/old cities/hotels/airports are beautiful (for China to show to tourists), there are two Chna's: a very Wealthy China (Manufacturers who get huge gov't subsidies in one way or another, Gov't) and an increasingly disaffected portion of the public.
The sons of the owners of manufacturers we have worked with for a long while, have dream cars for each day of the week. It drops off from there.
This is not to say that there arent a lt of people who work their butts off to try living the "American Dream," and it's happened for some people who ave been long time friends. But each one of them is in competition with a few Billion others to attract "your" attention.
And in terms of manufacturing and engineering, this is where the largest time delay is. If we want a certain type of shovel (litterally), their engineers can't figure out how to make one of the same quality (given a sample and all specs). Usually they'll come here, try to understand what something is used for, and say "okay, no problem." Counter sample after counter sample is sent back and forth and it ends up with our company in China has to take care of things or we have to go there at least 4 times/yr.
I say this because, China is spending money it doesn't have. They have very intelligent people, but when it comes to grasping some concepts that seem like a no brainer, it can become very hard for them to pick up. They can copy somethin very well (the way it looks), it's quality, though it has tremendously increased, doesn't pass "QC" for what's needed here (i.e. what should take a week, can take a year).
They definitely have great minds (and tons of them) and a hard work ethic, but there's such a cultural difference that what they often think is right, is so wrong it's hard to explain.
I just don't see the Chinese being able to support the huge investment they're putting into their military (or the appearance of that). Aircraft carriers make no sense for them, especially making them as quick as possible with not much thought put into the future. The best thing many western countries have done, is not settle for something that's "Close," but putting emphasis on getting it right.
-I'll stop here.
