China's War Chest

ever4244

New Member
I agree, without force projection, how are you going to take your sind to war?
Buinding Nuclear Subs is great, are they going to launch a nuke? Otherwise their subs may trail our CBGs but if they "aren't detected," ad decide to launch (whatever) at a carrier, I think the US would make a point to china that losing their navy, wasn't worth it.

As I said, our family buisness (has grown beyond that) has done business with China for almost 50 yrs. There's a world of difference, in just the last decade, but China's population, at this time (IMO), isn't sustainable. We've done everything possible to try to figure out how they are "making money." Our conclusion, along with most others companies (i.e. Mostly Big Box Stores) is that they aren't.

While major new cities/old cities/hotels/airports are beautiful (for China to show to tourists), there are two Chna's: a very Wealthy China (Manufacturers who get huge gov't subsidies in one way or another, Gov't) and an increasingly disaffected portion of the public.
The sons of the owners of manufacturers we have worked with for a long while, have dream cars for each day of the week. It drops off from there.
This is not to say that there arent a lt of people who work their butts off to try living the "American Dream," and it's happened for some people who ave been long time friends. But each one of them is in competition with a few Billion others to attract "your" attention.

And in terms of manufacturing and engineering, this is where the largest time delay is. If we want a certain type of shovel (litterally), their engineers can't figure out how to make one of the same quality (given a sample and all specs). Usually they'll come here, try to understand what something is used for, and say "okay, no problem." Counter sample after counter sample is sent back and forth and it ends up with our company in China has to take care of things or we have to go there at least 4 times/yr.

I say this because, China is spending money it doesn't have. They have very intelligent people, but when it comes to grasping some concepts that seem like a no brainer, it can become very hard for them to pick up. They can copy somethin very well (the way it looks), it's quality, though it has tremendously increased, doesn't pass "QC" for what's needed here (i.e. what should take a week, can take a year).

They definitely have great minds (and tons of them) and a hard work ethic, but there's such a cultural difference that what they often think is right, is so wrong it's hard to explain.

I just don't see the Chinese being able to support the huge investment they're putting into their military (or the appearance of that). Aircraft carriers make no sense for them, especially making them as quick as possible with not much thought put into the future. The best thing many western countries have done, is not settle for something that's "Close," but putting emphasis on getting it right.
-I'll stop here.
IMHO
Whether China has or hasnot money on it s military development is not simply decided by your solo bias ,but by the hard fact lay below.

GDP (purchasing power parity):
$10.17 trillion (2006 est.)
GDP (official exchange rate):
$2.518 trillion (2006 est.)
GDP - real growth rate:
10.7% (official data) (2006 est.)
GDP - per capita (PPP):
$7,700 (2006 est.)

Distribution of family income - Gini index:
44 (2002)
Military expenditures - percent of GDP:
3.8% (2006)

and this data given by CIA worlds factor book which dramaticly exaggerated the Military expenditure by at least two times still suggests that our military spending is much lower than USs which is more than 4%, and other major power .

It s kind for you to consider the havenots in china , and I have to concede that the social justice here is not so contenting. However it still a bias to deny China s right to have a modest Army to defend itself.

If you have been in China , you should know that we have a bitter memory of sticking to internal affair .China have been the most prosperous place in the world for nealy a thousand year when we bury our head in our internal affair and pay comparatively less attention to the military development. Then the result is well-known , becoming a half-colony and losing over 1.5 Million square meter of land territory with numerous war-reparations in 19th century , 30million people brutally slaughtered by japanese in WW2.

So who has the right to say , China should have pay more attention to domastic isssue instead of puting money into defence budget . No one, because none has suffered such lose and learn a harder lesson -----that one must pay for his safety himself.

And if China are over invest in defence with 3.8%(offically 2.8%) of GDP ,then what of US ,india,russia and other major power. Can you say the US is a perfect heaven that no improvements are necessary ? What about the health care system cut down by Mr Bush for his pathetic Iraq war? what about the New Orleans s "should have" flood wall ? what about the annuity of veteran soldier.
Of course America is a great deal ahead than China, but being poor doesn t being necessaryly being naked .We still have the right to buy a door to lock in however much penny we have to protect what rightfully belong to us.

And about your strange recognization of Chinese. I could only say:your bias cloud your vision. the generation currently at prime are often the poorest victims of the culture-revolution which pause virtually any form of edution for a decade. So it s not surprise to find they are not so competetive as the new generation. However, they proved their unmatched contribution by soaring China s economic growth at 10% percent over 20 years which are very rare in the world.

And even in the hardest time of China during the 1960s , the innovation and great thought are not rare in China, which enable us to firstly artificially synthesize protein ,which is a markstone in scientific history of Humanbeing-------though the researchers refuse to accept nobel prize for zealous communist ideology.
Not to mention we develop our A-bomb H-bomb N-bomb ICBM
nuclear submarine, Space program, fighter ,MBT ````````````by our own hands in the condition of weapon-sanction.
Any one among these numerous achievement can be a solid prove of our mind and will.

So put away your bias that chinese are somewhat clumsy or slow ,only good at copy , Once we are one of the most scientific advanced nation in the world and nothing could prevent us take our rightful seat back, though the wound of education needs more time to cover than it of the economy ,but 30 year later, you may rue that Nobel haven t set more prize each year.

All in all,a nation s develop needs balance, China has many concern---------economy , social justice, education , health care, public wellfare, national security . Puting the minim military expenditure into other field can t help much but will hurt alot because military building also needs consistence, and we can afford such percentage of GDP on defence if other countries can.
 

Incognito129

Banned Member
Besides, what use would China have of so many carriers ? Their primary goal is to make sure their coastline is unassailable and that they can swamp Taiwan if need be. Since land-based aircrafts can cover Taiwan easily, it would rather be LPDs and LPHs that China would need, not 10 CVs.
Of course, one might say : what about countering Japan ... who might soon enough start building carriers or adapting its LPHs with ski jumps... but it would just be wasted resources since China wouldn't gain anything other than prestige.
Last but not least, to equip 10 CVs they'd need 500+ navalized Flankers for more than 50 bn USD, plus the pilots, the training and the weapons load. Way too much even for China's skyrocketing GDP. The USN has 600 Super Hornets just to give a comparison...

cheers
Their primary objective is world wide dominance. I dont think you know this but China is 4x the size of the US and it will eventually dominant the world permanently. Its a scary thought but its reality.
 

Snayke

New Member
The article has not said China would invest money into aircraft carriers. It simply says they CAN. They CAN do lots of things. Doesn't mean they will or have the desire to.

metro - Planning for a surplus budget is done to slow down economic growth. Raising tax rates also slows down economic growth. I believe the US economy might've been growing to a level beyond sustainable, explaining the two economic actions the government of the time took.

Also, I believe its a very misleading to judge military spending by national GDP. The reason being, a country cannot spend the entire GDP. They can only spend what they have in the BUDGET. The USA spends 20%-25% of its yearly budget on the military. Paints a sharper picture doesn't it?

Another thing I have noticed about the Chinese economy. Remember that we are using US dollars when we estimate the size of China's economy. It's widely known that the Chinese currency is undervalued. Have you ever wondered what the size of China's economy REALLY is? I believe currently its around 6:1 (Chinese:US) exchange rate. Now I've yet to read any estimates of what its really worth, but imagine if it just shifted to 5:1. The value of the Chinese economy goes up how much? A damn lot.

As for Taiwan, China hasn't made a move on it even in their more radical era of politics. Modern Chinese politics is no where near radical as it was during the Mao era. To be quite honest its very western-like if you think about it.

As for living standards, when you're just an emerging economy, living standards are not going to be so great for everyone. Especially when there are so many unskilled workers unemployed that it makes paying for labour in such industries very cheap. You can blame capitalism for their appalling wages, because that's what it is. Supply and demand in its simplest form.

Incognito129 - Really? Could you show me this Chinese military doctrine of world domination? I've not seen any trend of Chinese behaviour in all of the past to suggest a desire of world wide domination. Not even when they were an imperial nation. I actually believe China to have a rather defence orientated military.

There's my two cents. :x
 

metro

New Member
The article has not said China would invest money into aircraft carriers. It simply says they CAN. They CAN do lots of things. Doesn't mean they will or have the desire to.

metro - Planning for a surplus budget is done to slow down economic growth. Raising tax rates also slows down economic growth. I believe the US economy might've been growing to a level beyond sustainable, explaining the two economic actions the government of the time took.

Also, I believe its a very misleading to judge military spending by national GDP. The reason being, a country cannot spend the entire GDP. They can only spend what they have in the BUDGET. The USA spends 20%-25% of its yearly budget on the military. Paints a sharper picture doesn't it?

Another thing I have noticed about the Chinese economy. Remember that we are using US dollars when we estimate the size of China's economy. It's widely known that the Chinese currency is undervalued. Have you ever wondered what the size of China's economy REALLY is? I believe currently its around 6:1 (Chinese:US) exchange rate. Now I've yet to read any estimates of what its really worth, but imagine if it just shifted to 5:1. The value of the Chinese economy goes up how much? A damn lot.

As for Taiwan, China hasn't made a move on it even in their more radical era of politics. Modern Chinese politics is no where near radical as it was during the Mao era. To be quite honest its very western-like if you think about it.

As for living standards, when you're just an emerging economy, living standards are not going to be so great for everyone. Especially when there are so many unskilled workers unemployed that it makes paying for labour in such industries very cheap. You can blame capitalism for their appalling wages, because that's what it is. Supply and demand in its simplest form.

Incognito129 - Really? Could you show me this Chinese military doctrine of world domination? I've not seen any trend of Chinese behaviour in all of the past to suggest a desire of world wide domination. Not even when they were an imperial nation. I actually believe China to have a rather defence orientated military.

There's my two cents. :x
Just wanted to point out that I said I'm not the one to tell the Chinese what to spend their money on. Just that, IMO, it would not be aircraft carriers for several reasons mentioned.

As "deception" is a large part of Sun Tzu's writing's, "deception" is a large part of the Chinese economy. The Yuan really has almost no value, except domestically on the mainland in China. They print money because the printer works and people need to get "paid" for their work. Forget checking banking ratings, just see how hard it is to actually change Yuan into $$ or Euros. Maybe as a favor. The shell game that's played is too complicated to explain, just can't even try tonight. But this is what I do in my real life and my family has done for 50 years. If you name one big corp. and ask them how/if China makes money, the answer is/will be either no comment or they don't.

As for the Cheap Labor, today it isn't Cheap or good enough. Ask Europe where they're exporting most machinery? The only advantage is that the Chinese Gov't can open new factories on whim. Somehow, that neither costs China, nor do they lose money by replacing labor with machinery that is needed to fulfill the product needs of today.

As more people come into the NICE cities with the expectation of work, and there isn't the work/pay that was expected in order to put people up in the new high rises, there are more and more pissed people.

IMO, and many others, they have many domestic problems in China today and down the line. They're still the cheapest because of their Gov't "subsidies..." A VAT that exists but doesn't but does... Well Chian tried to raise prices do to "collection of taxes" but they found out other places become cheaper. So it's back to playing games with the books.

Anyway, it's no attack on China, but I think many see significant problems there.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
...
Another thing I have noticed about the Chinese economy. Remember that we are using US dollars when we estimate the size of China's economy. It's widely known that the Chinese currency is undervalued. Have you ever wondered what the size of China's economy REALLY is? I believe currently its around 6:1 (Chinese:US) exchange rate. Now I've yet to read any estimates of what its really worth, but imagine if it just shifted to 5:1. The value of the Chinese economy goes up how much? A damn lot. ...
The CIA factbook estimates quoted by ever4244 are exactly that. They are "purchasing power parity", or PPP, estimates. At current exchange rates, the GDP of China in 2006 is estimated by the World Bank at about $2669 bn. US GDP $13202 bn. At PPP, the World bank estimates the GDP of China at $10044 bn, but that estimate is acknowledged as of poor reliability. It's derived by updating a 1986 academic (with some official Chinese co-operation) estimate. It will be replaced by a new official estimate (part of a multi-national project) soon. The growth rate used to project the 1986 forward to 2006 has been widely criticised, & some of the leading academics in the field prefer reckon the true Chinese figure is probably about 20% lower, maybe $8000 bn.
 

wp2000

Member
Just wanted to point out that I said I'm not the one to tell the Chinese what to spend their money on. Just that, IMO, it would not be aircraft carriers for several reasons mentioned.

As "deception" is a large part of Sun Tzu's writing's, "deception" is a large part of the Chinese economy. The Yuan really has almost no value, except domestically on the mainland in China. They print money because the printer works and people need to get "paid" for their work. Forget checking banking ratings, just see how hard it is to actually change Yuan into $$ or Euros. Maybe as a favor. The shell game that's played is too complicated to explain, just can't even try tonight. But this is what I do in my real life and my family has done for 50 years. If you name one big corp. and ask them how/if China makes money, the answer is/will be either no comment or they don't.
Agree, it's hard to exchange Chinese Yuan to Euro. But it's quite easy to exchange Yuan to USD, HKD and Yen. Maybe that's a problem of Euro don't you think?

By the way, Yuan's main value is for domestic economy and Chinese government does not allow it to flow outside. If you have been doing biz with China for 50 years, you should know it very well.
 

nero

New Member
Theres a report i saw in a magazine not all that long ago, concerning the development of chinese anti-satilite technology.

The ilitary of most countries these days is almost totaly relient upon satilite communcation.

What threat could this now pose?

cheers,
josh
.
in the long run it could pose a huge threat

but as of now the technoligy is only in the development phase in CHINA.

china is now concentrating only on taiwan.

but if taiwan is annexed, then it could be a headache for everyone else.


.
 

P.A.F

New Member
if you ask me, i think that china's aircraft carrier program is well under way. I seriously think that the ~70% complete varyag they purchased is well on it's way to becoming a operational carrier. The PLAN have also expressed great interest in the Su-33. The varyag has been changed quite alot since it was brought. check it out here.
:)
 

nero

New Member
if you ask me, i think that china's aircraft carrier program is well under way. I seriously think that the ~70% complete varyag they purchased is well on it's way to becoming a operational carrier. The PLAN have also expressed great interest in the Su-33. The varyag has been changed quite alot since it was brought. check it out here.
:)
. china never reveals it's cards so easily.

u never know with china.

even if they have plans for more than 2 aircraft carrierrs u will never know about it untill the last second.

by the way can u post some links on the Sukhoi-33 front ??

inputs will be helpful


.
 

P.A.F

New Member
. china never reveals it's cards so easily.

u never know with china.

even if they have plans for more than 2 aircraft carrierrs u will never know about it untill the last second.

by the way can u post some links on the Sukhoi-33 front ??

inputs will be helpful


.
Thats what people where saying with the J-10 program. It was ment to be so called top secret when just about everybody knew many things about it which are true now that it has been declassified. anyway, the naval chief was last year quoted as saying that china would have an aircraft carrier by 2015 if everything goes to plan. i don't think that they would by an off the shelf package. the only sensible option would to convert a ~70% aircraft carrier into an opperational one. I can't see them making one from scratch. therefore i came up with that conclusion.

Go to google images and search for the su-33. there are plenty off images there.;)
 

alexsa

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Thats what people where saying with the J-10 program. It was ment to be so called top secret when just about everybody knew many things about it which are true now that it has been declassified. anyway, the naval chief was last year quoted as saying that china would have an aircraft carrier by 2015 if everything goes to plan. i don't think that they would by an off the shelf package. the only sensible option would to convert a ~70% aircraft carrier into an opperational one. I can't see them making one from scratch. therefore i came up with that conclusion.

Go to google images and search for the su-33. there are plenty off images there.;)
If you belive the press and blogs China will have a convnetionally powered carrier of 48000 tonnes by 2010 (project 085)

http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/node/4196

I remain very skeptical about the chance of this time frame being met given we are in the latter half of 2010 and both press reports and blogs seem to indicate only research work is underway at the moment and building has not commenced. It also states that that a 93000 tonne nuclear powered carrier will be compled by 2020 (project 089).

It appears that china ahve a desire to build carriers but the scheduel appears a tad optimistic and I wonder if some of ther technologies are sufficnetly developed to complete an effective project089 carrier by 2020.
 

crobato

New Member
In China, if they really want to do it, it would be done decisively and very fast. Projects are often done with sheer single minded focus and rapidity once they are fully committed.

In comparison, the rate of the work being done on the Varyag seems uncharacteristic and snail like in comparison. Almost as if they're still dragging their feet. I am not sure if the government, the CMC, the PLAN, and the PLA are fully committed to this project. Even in the popular opinions in Chinese internet forums, people are dramatically divided in the nays and hays of the project, and I think such debates reflecting the differences of opinion with the CCP and the PLA itself on this project. A lot of Chinese do think its a sheer waste of money, and the money may be better spent on some other project.
 

PrOeLiTeZ

New Member
Carrier for the PLAN would more be a technology demonstration to the world more then military purpose. China has really leaped moreso in its space areana than its naval areana in some respect.

China in most history finishes project either ontime or earlier or in rare cases little bit behind. It is questionable as to why the PLAN is lagging the carriers project.

My theory, still a debate within the PLA if a carrier is neccessary, and also alarm bells would rise to nations about China's reputation as a defensive nation. Cause carriers are moreso a foward defence (offensive platform) military assest to that nation.

Reports of steam turbine fitted on the Varyg, gas turbines should be more effective but China hasn't mastered Gas turbine technology nor has it in neuclear reactors.
 

10ringr

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
I wonder how long it would take them to build 10 Carriers


by Martin Walker
UPI Editor Emeritus
Washington (UPI) May 23, 2007

With more than $1,200 billion in U.S. dollars, T-bills and securities in its piggy bank, China has been losing money as the value of the dollar has fallen against the euro.

This helps explain that startling announcement last week that China is planning to launch a state investment fund that would seek better returns on its money. It plans to start by investing in stocks and private capital funds like the Blackstone group, which this week announced the infusion of $3 billion of China's massive hoard of cash.

Put this into perspective. At current market values, China's $300 billion fund could buy the whole of Wal-Mart, and still have enough left over to buy the Big Three American car makers: Ford, GM and Chrysler. Or it could buy British oil giant BP and still have enough left over to buy Germany's Siemens. If China wanted to put all its $1.2 trillion into stocks, it could buy Exxon-Mobil, Shell and BP and still have enough left to buy Wal-Mart.

Or China could put some of the money into its defense budget, buy aircraft carriers and challenge the traditional U.S. dominance of the seas. The standard U.S. Nimitz-style carriers cost around $6 billion each, and America's next generation CVN-21 carriers will cost about double that sum. Then there will be the cost of the warplanes, training the crews, and the other surface vessels in the standard task force that support and protect the carrier.

So a fleet of 10 state-of-the-art CVN-21 carriers with their warplane, crew and task force support could be had for about the $300 billion that China is planning to invest -- not counting the savings that Chinese manufacturing techniques and labor costs would bring. So China could in theory afford to challenge the traditional U.S. naval dominance in the Pacific Ocean.

Were it to choose to do so, it seems they would have a helping hand from the U.S. Navy. Adm. Tim Keating, who now runs the Pacific Command and used to serve on the carrier Nimitz, has just completed a five-day friendly visit to China. And at a lunch with Vice Adm. Wu Shengli, commander of China's navy, Keating stressed the difficulty and complexity of developing, building and operating an aircraft carrier. But at his news conference the following day, Keating said the United States would be willing to help if that is what China decides to do.

"It is not an area where we would want any tension to arise unnecessarily," he said. "And we would, if they choose to develop (an aircraft carrier program) help them to the degree that they seek and the degree that we're capable, in developing their programs."

The immediate response from many armchair strategists was to wonder if Admiral Keating had taken leave of his senses. Why would the U.S. Navy want to help a potential challenger for the control of the seas?

And yet the immediate Chinese response was very cautious. Maj. Gen. Yang Chunchang of China's Academy of Military Sciences told the Chinese-run Hong Kong daily, Wen Wei Po, that he "was concerned about (the implications of) Keating's remarks." Chinese strategists are wary of U.S. plans to infiltrate China's military machine and gather intelligence through joint exercises and exchange visits.

U.S. Navy officials have been thinking about China's plans for an aircraft carrier for more than a decade, since China first began talks with Russia about buying one of their small and obsolete carriers, so that they could start the long climb up the learning curve of naval aviation.

There is a school of American thought that would actually welcome a massive Chinese investment in aircraft carriers, on the grounds that it would take them as long as 20 years to be able to build the ships and aircraft, train the crews, and learn the tactics of operating carriers, and they would be very hard put to catch up with the U.S. Navy's 80 years of experience. (The U.S. Navy paid a stiff price for a similar over-confidence regarding another Asian fleet back on Dec. 7, 1941.)

Others maintain that luring China into building such a navy would be a clever fiscal trap that would overwhelm and distort the Chinese defense budget for decades to come, and simply offer some very fat targets for the U.S. advantage in stealthy hunter-killer submarines. There is also a view that in the age of stealthy submarines and super-fast torpedoes like the Russian Skval and precision-guided weapons, big aircraft carriers are already obsolete.

Maybe. But do not forget that China has already put men into space, and earlier this year a Chinese anti-satellite weapon knocked out an obsolete satellite orbiting high above the earth. The Chinese may be technologically behind the United States, but they are evidently catching up fast.

And the argument that building a carrier fleet would bust the Chinese budget looks very thin against the potential tsunami of dollars that Beijing is planning to pour into the world's financial markets. If the Beijing government decides that a carrier fleet is in the national interest, and that China's strategic goals require the ability to control its own waters and the key shipping lanes and oil tanker routes, they can certainly afford it. And there would be no more visible symbol of China's new role as a great power than a carrier fleet that embodies a challenge to America's command of the seas.

We have, of course, been here before, at the beginning of the 20th century when Kaiser Wilhelm's Germany decided to build a High Seas Fleet that could challenge Britain's dominance of the seas. The subsequent arms race as each side vied to produce more and more Dreadnought-type heavy battleships played an important role in the escalation of tensions that helped bring about the First World War.

This time, we have a third candidate for the new naval arms race. Indian Defense Minister A.K. Antony told his country's parliament last week that India plans to have three carriers on the seas by 2017. They already operate the Virar, bought from Britain (where it was known as HMS Hermes), and are currently refurbishing the former Soviet carrier Admiral Gorshkov. India is also now building at Cochin its own new 41,000-ton carrier, designed to carry Russian-designed Mig-29s.

But remembering the cost of all this, it should be emphasized that China's current account surplus grew by $136 billion in the first three months of this year. At that rate, they could afford to build a 10-carrier fleet with just half of this year's surplus. And last week, Credit Suisse estimated that China's total war chest, or rather its total reserves, could hit $2 trillion, or $2,000 billion, by the end of next year.

As China decides whether it wants to take the risk of challenging the United States for the command of the seas, or even just for the command of the waters around Taiwan, money will be no object.

Source: United Press International
Yes, this can't be done over night. It's one thing to have the money to take piano lessons, but it's entirely another matter being good enough to play in the Philaharmonic Orchestra nevermind it would take at least a decade if they had the logistics, facilities and technical skill to pull it off and they don't at the moment. We have about 15 years before they could have carriers in quantity and that's if they hurry so don't worry, be happy! Hutch
 

PrOeLiTeZ

New Member
For the PLAN to get 10 carriers (highly uneccessary for the PLAN) would require about 30 years. PLAN shouldnt focus too much on their carrier program and focus more so on engines. As China frigates and destroyers are lagging in domestic engines. Most are either imports that still dont cut it or domestic engines that are less powerful. PLAN should focus on developing gas turbines, diesel engines and nuclear reactors before getting onto the carrier program.

Better money can go into research and development on SSN, SSBN, SSGN for naval assests and increase their major surface combatants mostly destroyers and frigates.

Developing an indigenous carrier yeah in current state wouldnt take to much time, but having the fixed wing aircraft to be on it will be hard, as they dont have that much expertise on carrier aircraft. Though the Su-33 from Ukraine could boost China's indigenous carrier flanker.
 

crobato

New Member
China does manufacture under license German MTU 396 engines, which are used by the U-212 and U-214s. The same company, Shaanxi Diesel Manufactory, also license manufactures French SEMT Pielstick diesel engines, the same as those used on the Lafayette class frigates, not to mention various MAN diesel engines. You can guess these engines are dual use, but their military applications involved the Song and Yuan class subs, the 054 and 054A Jiangkai class frigates, and possibly the Type 22 Houbei. Note that there are fairly large numbers of procurement of both the MTU and SEMT engines (each engine produced has to be reported to the Germans and the French) indicating a large production program of Yuans and Jiangkai IIs are underway. Unless the Chinese users of these engines are bigger and heavier than their European counterparts, I don't see how these engines would be underpowered.

As for the gas turbines, so far they are imported, but the Ukrainians have been more than willing to sell UGT 2500 engines to them and the Chinese also makes turbine blades for that engine too. Though there appears to be stationary power generation and ship powerplants in development or in offering based on the WS-10 core starting to appear as of late 2005, too late though to be incorporated to any of the 052C designs. The key is to see what the next gas turbine Chinese destroyer would be (052X). As you noticed, the type designations on Chinese ships are based on propulsion, 52 being gas turbine, 51 being steam turbine, 53 and 54 are diesel.

As for SSN and SSBN research that already appears to be done, the PLAN making the 093 public, which probably has at least 3 subs already, though it has yet to lift the wraps of the 094. Still we are spotting at least one new Chinese boomer in Google Earth as well as an 093 class sub under construction (thanks to SOC of AFM and ACIG forums for spotting this). Its not hard to see that 093 are currently in production, though I am guessing rather slowly.

The next 052D is rumored to be slated for production this year as soon as Jiangnan Shipyard has finished its relocation to a new facility this year. My own personal expectations of it would be somewhere along the lines of the 052C but with the squared VLS launchers like those seen in the 054A.

As for the Varyag, its said that various contracts have been handed out to Chinese and Russian companies, so it seems for now, they are genuinely serious about getting it running in the water.
 

tphuang

Super Moderator
For the PLAN to get 10 carriers (highly uneccessary for the PLAN) would require about 30 years. PLAN shouldnt focus too much on their carrier program and focus more so on engines. As China frigates and destroyers are lagging in domestic engines. Most are either imports that still dont cut it or domestic engines that are less powerful. PLAN should focus on developing gas turbines, diesel engines and nuclear reactors before getting onto the carrier program.

Better money can go into research and development on SSN, SSBN, SSGN for naval assests and increase their major surface combatants mostly destroyers and frigates.

Developing an indigenous carrier yeah in current state wouldnt take to much time, but having the fixed wing aircraft to be on it will be hard, as they dont have that much expertise on carrier aircraft. Though the Su-33 from Ukraine could boost China's indigenous carrier flanker.
well, actually China has been developing a series of gas turbines, they've already had plenty of experience with diesel engines. The problem is that they've only recently got them ready. And they've developed numerous types of nuclear reactors for nuclear subs.

Think about it this way, QC-185 is 5 tonne and generates 18 MW of power. UTG-25000 may generate 27.5 MW of power, but weighs 16 tonne. Chinese gas turbines aren't so bad, are they?
 

10ringr

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
For the PLAN to get 10 carriers (highly uneccessary for the PLAN) would require about 30 years. PLAN shouldnt focus too much on their carrier program and focus more so on engines. As China frigates and destroyers are lagging in domestic engines. Most are either imports that still dont cut it or domestic engines that are less powerful. PLAN should focus on developing gas turbines, diesel engines and nuclear reactors before getting onto the carrier program.

Better money can go into research and development on SSN, SSBN, SSGN for naval assests and increase their major surface combatants mostly destroyers and frigates.

Developing an indigenous carrier yeah in current state wouldnt take to much time, but having the fixed wing aircraft to be on it will be hard, as they dont have that much expertise on carrier aircraft. Though the Su-33 from Ukraine could boost China's indigenous carrier flanker.
I'm still trying to figure out where the figure of 30 years to accomplish it came from. China has an economy 12 Trillion dollars vrs. U.S. which is about 15+ Trillion and China has twice the growth rate. I'm not saying they would be as good as us but 15 years you can almost guarantee that if they decided to do this they could. I think people don't realize how much money China has and when you have Keating talking about helping them, I just find myself so disgusted with what we've done. From selling guidance systems for nuclear warheads to MIRV/Warhead construction. Now this pattern of appeasement is costing us dearly. Hutch
 

f-22fan12

New Member
China does manufacture under license German MTU 396 engines, which are used by the U-212 and U-214s. The same company, Shaanxi Diesel Manufactory, also license manufactures French SEMT Pielstick diesel engines, the same as those used on the Lafayette class frigates, not to mention various MAN diesel engines. You can guess these engines are dual use, but their military applications involved the Song and Yuan class subs, the 054 and 054A Jiangkai class frigates, and possibly the Type 22 Houbei. Note that there are fairly large numbers of procurement of both the MTU and SEMT engines (each engine produced has to be reported to the Germans and the French) indicating a large production program of Yuans and Jiangkai IIs are underway. Unless the Chinese users of these engines are bigger and heavier than their European counterparts, I don't see how these engines would be underpowered.

As for the gas turbines, so far they are imported, but the Ukrainians have been more than willing to sell UGT 2500 engines to them and the Chinese also makes turbine blades for that engine too. Though there appears to be stationary power generation and ship powerplants in development or in offering based on the WS-10 core starting to appear as of late 2005, too late though to be incorporated to any of the 052C designs. The key is to see what the next gas turbine Chinese destroyer would be (052X). As you noticed, the type designations on Chinese ships are based on propulsion, 52 being gas turbine, 51 being steam turbine, 53 and 54 are diesel.

As for SSN and SSBN research that already appears to be done, the PLAN making the 093 public, which probably has at least 3 subs already, though it has yet to lift the wraps of the 094. Still we are spotting at least one new Chinese boomer in Google Earth as well as an 093 class sub under construction (thanks to SOC of AFM and ACIG forums for spotting this). Its not hard to see that 093 are currently in production, though I am guessing rather slowly.

The next 052D is rumored to be slated for production this year as soon as Jiangnan Shipyard has finished its relocation to a new facility this year. My own personal expectations of it would be somewhere along the lines of the 052C but with the squared VLS launchers like those seen in the 054A.

As for the Varyag, its said that various contracts have been handed out to Chinese and Russian companies, so it seems for now, they are genuinely serious about getting it running in the water.
Thanks for the info. I have one question. How does China license produce a German diesel engine when the entire E.U. has an arms embargo on China?

Thanks. :)
 
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