What did I call you?Let's see...
You can call me whatever you want but me calling you "mate" is completely unacceptable.
Did I get it right?
What did I call you?Let's see...
You can call me whatever you want but me calling you "mate" is completely unacceptable.
Did I get it right?
Andrey Klepach said:We are falling behind. We are losing both the technological and economic competition in the world. And we are losing it not only to China and the United States, in some ways we are losing it to Ukraine too
Andrey Klepach said:We will not win the competition in this war of attrition. We have the illusion that everything there (in Ukraine) will collapse. It has not collapsed and will not collapse. Our costs are mounting
Andrey Klepach said:Both sides are intensifying their strikes, including on each other’s economy. Our losses from the Ukrainian armed forces’ strikes on our port, oil and gas, chemical, and logistical infrastructure are growing, and they’re already becoming a noticeable macroeconomic barrier to Russian economic growth.
Andrey Klepach said:Economically we will not collapse, but our lag will continue to grow, with all the resulting consequences, precisely when nobody is particularly expecting it
Andrey Klepach said:The quality of governance is almost constantly deteriorating. Decisions are being made all the time that have an extremely low level of justification but long-term strategic consequences.
I think he's correct about many things. In general this war is bad for Russia. This isn't news. I'm of the opinion, and I've written it before, that this war would have been bad for Russia no matter what, it was a no-win scenario to start it. Even a victory lap to cheering from local populations would still have ultimately been bad. And it's not that, it's a long, dirty, expensive, war of attrition. The prizes aren't even regions of post-Soviet industrial-urban decay with a population that has lukewarm feelings about Russia (the way they would have been had Russia seized these areas back in '14). The prizes are increasingly just piles of rubble with a trickle of tired and traumatized civilians that often as not require a lot of assistance before they can become productive members of the Russian economy. Lithium deposits and coking coal are all good and well, but they won't be economically usable until the front line moves much farther, and even then it's years of investment into development. More agricultural land helps, but isn't that valuable. So what is Russia getting to offset the costs of the war? Very little, realistically, and far less since '22.There seem to be some voices in russia concerned about the economic impact of the war.
The chief economist of russia's VEB was recently quoted as saying:
![]()
Top Russian economist ousted after warning of growing costs of Ukraine war
Andrey Klepach, top economist at Russia's state development bank VEB, had warned Russia was lagging behind rivals.www.aljazeera.com
He was promptly fired for it. Not sure if he's an outlier or if this reflects wider unease within Russian institutions, but it's interesting how much this war increasingly comes down to which side can inflict more economic pain on the other.




A little context for this widely reported stuff:There seem to be some voices in russia concerned about the economic impact of the war.


Funnily enough, I originally read it in the FT and only shared Al Jazeera to avoid a "Western media = propaganda" response. I thought Al Jazeera might be more respected by a certain kind of crowd. I guess that didn't hold true.The article cited appears to have been written from bits and pieces of other reporting built to promote a specific narrative. It isn’t clear if the authors of the original reports read the entire publication themselves, the Al Jazeera journos clearly haven’t, which is a shame.
Not sure if he's an outlier or if this reflects wider unease within Russian institutions
Very much agreed. Terrible timing.The irony in the expectation of “inevitable” political turmoil in Russia, while one hits Ukraine is solid. But who would have thought, right?!
The reality is that Ukraine lives in the context of constant political struggle, even if not obvious to a less familiar outside observer. Anything and everything is used to gain political advantage. Only “in your face” statements and actions are noted. It is coming to a boil, however, and the kettle will whistle, sooner or later. Fedorov’s ambitions were clear post-letting go, as opposed to many suggesting it had nothing to do with personal desires. As I briefly discussed earlier, he is a populist, talks a lot while saying nothing, takes credit for things that likely were not his accomplishments, etc. In my opinion, no other type of individual can succeed in replacing Zelensky today (if it were legally possible or widely desirable).
Fedorov’s push, at the same time, reveals his lack of ability to see the forrest among the trees, or see the situation more broadly, which shows his unsuitability for the position he was removed from. Like I also said previously, a few thousand people that came to the streets waving cardboard signs in his support mean nothing. Like literally, they are completely irrelevant. There is no broader support while competing with Zelensky in the current environment. More importantly, as today’s Rada vote (appointing the FM and MoD) clearly showed, he has no wide political backing from the elites (extremely important). Notably, Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence voted unanimously to appoint Zelensky’s proposed candidate as the new MoD, while in Rada, 312 MPs voted in favour, 2 against, with 11 abstentions/not voted (325 MPs were present out of about 390 in total). Also notable, the FM candidate, where there is less controversy, was voted in with 266 in favour. I believe this shows what’s what as clear as can be. This probably does too:
View attachment 55446
Fedorov’s revolt is completely immature. He got it completely wrong (and lost the battle) when he put forth his ultimatum to be reinstated as the MoD (in my opinion, his actions reveal plainly that it was the right decision by Zelensky on many different levels). Even if he had the power he thinks (thought?) he does, there was no way for Zelensky to bring him back in that capacity (yet, he still tried to accommodate, which showed weakness). To think otherwise is a delusion. It would mean that he can manhandle the president of the country, giving him an enormous power. To compare this circus with thriving democracy is also crazy talk - in no democratic society would a fired minister dictate ultimatums to the president (where the society agrees to his legitimacy) and act as he did. More reminiscent of an African “democracy”, where this is a normality (and even works from time to time).
Another point. Fedorov advertises his “relationship” with Musk as something epic. While there is likely no “relationship”, Musk’s views are also quite clear and well-known, including in Ukraine itself. It’s not an asset in the political context where absolute majority is presumably in favour of continuing the war until some form of victory; it’s a liability.
Anyway, another guy full of ego and lack of strategic thinking. Not sure what all the hype is about. What’s funny is that he ran digital strategy and online outreach for Zelensky during his campaign in 2019. He was doing the same for his own self here, but he could not see the broader implications of his actions. Like I said, just another clown. What he did do though is put it out in the open in the biggest way yet and tested the water. He is not the only one calling for elections, there are many others. Another prominent example from just a few days ago:
View attachment 55447
Here is another funny thing though, from the same ^ man. Looks like we found another/new Churchill:
View attachment 55449
Well, maybe not:
View attachment 55448
At least they agree on the elections bit.
Another interesting tidbit. The head of the presidential administration is the former head of HUR. MoD is now headed by the former head of SBU department responsible for “special operations, counterterrorism activities, and the protection of participants in criminal proceedings and law enforcement officials”. Neat, right?
Something else I wanted to say… Ah, well… Probably irrelevant, like the rest of it.
To address the last, shortly: I doubt it’s an outlier (quite sure it is not, rather).@KipPotapych Thanks for the context!
I am not buying "not public." though. Q&A's in the same PDF, same Выпуск 145, one editor credit at the back. Page 3 lists it as one session with every participant, not report-plus-appendix. Same document. Published by the club itself.
The quotes and the overall sentiment do check out when reading the report AFAICT. He does throw in a "we'll survive" and an "optimistic note" right at the end, which Privalov himself calls thin. In any case, it doesn't change the throughline. From all I can tell, nobody reading this comes away thinking Klepach himself isn't worried. Hence I remain curious about my original point:


To me it's so obviously public that I suspect we mean different things by the word.As for public… I fully agree with Alexander there, it was a semi-private setting. It is a private club and attendance is quite restricted. To simplify my own rather extensive writing, laughing, here is an AI generated response to attendance requirements:

We probably do.To me it's so obviously public that I suspect we mean different things by the word.
I think that's basically the crux: you're saying "the club is (semi-)private," I'm saying "Klepach's statements there were public." Those aren't the same claim, and we might both just be right.Let’s put it this way. Have you ever heard of the “Club” before? i gather the answer is no. Have I? Yes. Is the fact that suddenly there are media reports three months after the event suggestive? Probably yes. Therefore, semi-private is as good a description as any, or better.
You should read the Russian press no bias and lots and lots of respect there, or maybe the North Korean press?"More than three hundred gas stations have been damaged or destroyed in literally the last six months." Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal.
But there are fuel restrictions only in Russia.![]()
More than 300 gas stations in Ukraine have been damaged or destroyed by shelling, according to Shmyhal
Over the past six months, more than 300 gas stations in Ukraine have been damaged or completely destroyed as a result of Russian shelling. According to Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal, this has caused significant damage to the Ukrainian economy.ua.news
I read that in Al-Jazeera, I don't think it's about "respect" but about bias. The Indian Times doesn't have to shout that Russia blew up the Nord Stream and doesn't have to keep repeating it. It's not its circus, not its monkeys.