Middle East Defence & Security

Big_Zucchini said:

Tehran finally getting some water. Not sure if it'll be enough but we'll see.

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Looks as if the heaviest rain is on the wrong side of the mountains.

American-led ISF base in Israel by the Gaza border. Seems like they're buying locally (those are Plasan Sandcats and Ibex).
Also, yes in Israel you can definitely walk up to military equipment and say hi to the lads.

Israel, Greece, Cyprus reportedly working to set up a local alliance, starting with a joint brigade sized force of 2,500 personnel, as well as ships and aircraft.
I assume the intent is the protection of energy infrastructure in the east-med.

The force will reportedly include:

• 2,500 troops - Israel 1,000, Greece 1,000, Cyprus 500.
• 2 air squadrons - Israel 1, Greece 1.
• 2 surface vessels - Israel 1, Greece 1.
• 2 submarines - Israel 1, Greece 1.

Israel and Egypt sign a $35 billion deal to supply Egypt with natural gas from the Leviathan gas field. About half of that will be profit to the state.

So now that we're steadily moving toward the next phase that will see gradual deployment of foreign troops, ironically at their own request. We're heading toward a situation where said foreign troops may have to do these demolitions as well but beyond the yellow line.

The political ramifications are amusing to me, but also the practical ones. A lot of armies neglected such conventional capabilities like combat engineering, and did not develop more advanced ones like tunnel surveying (in a safe manner). I think this will be a good practice for many, and probably one more reason for the collection of why Israel might oppose the presence of countries it deems excessively hostile like Turkey.

I think it's safe to say now that claims of Israeli isolation have been massively overblown.

Let's see what was widely claimed but turned out false:

1. American support for Israel will fall - Nothing tangible in that regard.
2. Europe will impose sanctions - The exact opposite happened.
3. Israel will collapse economically - Israel's local indices outperformed American ones (incl S&P).
4. Famine - UN retracted the claim.
5. Genocide - UN retracted the claim.

In a pilot course graduation ceremony, Netanyahu announced a plan to spend $110 billion over a decade to vastly improve Israel's security independence, including from close allies like the US.

I do not know if any part of it exists in the 2026 budget. It is a very ambitious program, and personally I hope it will include a silicon fab or two.

I think we can possibly connect it to the F-35 sale effort to Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Oddly, Israeli officials said Israel will maintain a qualitative military edge despite that. Based on just official info, even in 5-10 years an F-35A should reduce the capability gap below what one might consider the appropriate level. But if through this new program, if it materializes, Israel builds some combat aircraft manufacturing capability, then that qualitative military edge could be restored.

An indigenous manned fighter might be a leap. But further divergence from the base F-35A could be a major boost in itself.