The future?

USAF77

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  • #21
While General Sir John Hackett wrote a fine book, I am almost certain that the "Frisby" scenes did not occur in his book but rather in Larry Bonds/Tom Clancys Red Storm Rising, I can not be sure as it has been a good number of years since I last read either novel.
You may very well be right. Its been a long time. I thought Lockheed was approached in '77, again you may very well be right. Certainly the interest LO aircraft technology has been around since WW-ll .

I would argue that even a span as short as a decade can be hard to predict
To a degree I agree. But with The Cold War over I think long term predictions have gotten a lot easier. So much depends on the Geo/Political situation, which this thread isnt about, and the resulting size of defense budgets.

But in '91 it wasnt hard to predict where precision guided weaponry would be 30 years later. Even now they would make up the entirety of opening nights strikes. You certainly knew the rest of NATO was going to get up to standard with them.

Without question cruise missile technology will be common place 30 years from now. As will the defense systems against them and other stand off weapons.

A big question mark for me is where will the Chinese air launched capability be? In both airframes and weapons? Any opinions?
 

SpartanSG

New Member
A big question mark for me is where will the Chinese air launched capability be? In both airframes and weapons? Any opinions?
This will be highly speculative given the secrecy of the PLA. However, I think it is worth pointing out a few things:

1. Does the PLA have black projects (i.e., their equivalent of Skunkworks)?

I think it will be naive to think they don't. But the difficulty is having an idea what are their cutting edge technology? Basing it on their 90s technology isn't particularly useful since they are moving up the value chain really fast.

2. What is the currently level of technology is their domestic industry?

Much has been said about their reliance on Russian fighter aircraft engines, which is used as an indicator of the inability of their domestic industry. What if the domestic industry is being used to produce engines for their black projects? They have made huge strides in commercial aircraft technology. To think that this does not translate into progress for military projects is naive.

3. What are the risks they face?

Will domestic instability (from whatever cause) disrupt their development of the military aerospace capabilities. This is the unpredictable one. Just last year, the leadership transition model in Beijing was hailed as successful. Now, the sentiments are the other way around. Personally, I think the possibility of social unrest is very high. This is a country that has not experienced an economic recession for 30+ years (since market reforms in 1979). An economic recession will undoubtedly happen sooner or later, question is what will be its effects and how severe will it be? Will it lead to another Tiananmen? Or the CCP losing power? That's really hard to say.
 

USAF77

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China's investment in a TU-22M production line leaves little doubt they are committed to long range Maritime strike. Even with a couple/three dozen Backfires , with KH-22, they will change the Pacific strategic picture quite a bit. I daresay more then a new CV will.

The Chinese realize how worried we were about the Backfires in the trans Atlantic convoy routes. Their short time solution will be a credible, home made, , refuel'able, Backfire force. Long term you have to think they will commit to a LO bomber with a 4,000 nm range armed with hypersonic LO missiles. They have poured an awful lot of resources into destroying USN CVs. I dont think they will put their eggs in one basket. Or even two.

They want a long range maritime strike threat now ; they will want an even more credible one 30 years from now. Its a proven concept for taking out CVs.
 

colay

New Member
China's investment in a TU-22M production line leaves little doubt they are committed to long range Maritime strike. Even with a couple/three dozen Backfires , with KH-22, they will change the Pacific strategic picture quite a bit. I daresay more then a new CV will.
I wasn't aware China had finalized a deal for Backfires, let alone investing in a production line. Got a link?
 

colay

New Member
That is basically the same article referencing the same source, China News service

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none of these articles link back to the original story on china news and I can't find it when I search the china news site. To the best of my knowledge, there have been no Russian reports about this either.
I have my doubts as well. The China News Service references a "confirmation" by the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission but I can't find any mention of such a deal.
 

USAF77

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Maybe the Russians dont want it reported. Perhaps they are using it as a Diplomatic stick, setting up a production line is a lot more complicated then just selling bombers.

Thing is the Chinese intent is there. There has been a lot of chatter about it in defense blogs, but of course I cant use blogs as a source. There has also been talk about Chinas intent to build a next Gen strike bomber, "do please remember the topic of the thread", and I have little doubt China will have the capability in 30 years. And probably a lot sooner.

They have a huge area of ocean they want to call the shots in. Trade routes most of all. It makes no sense not to have a long range maritime bomber force.
 

Zbigniew

New Member
30 years from now where do you think Global air powers will be?

Systems?
Balance of power?
New systems being developed?
AA systems it will be facing?

In short, who will be the players "industry's" and what will they be playing with? Also what will they have in the developing pipeline?

Thank you.
There was an interesting article in The Economist about the F-35: economist.com/node/18958487

I hope we won't have just fighter jets for Airshows in 30 years...

From the debate in the US about responsibility of drone operators I think UAVs will face opposition. But cost are just so much higher for fighter jets that I think the role they'll have is very limited soon. Better to have a load of shitty drones, still cheaper.

Sorry, here is the full link: The defence industry: The last manned fighter | The Economist
 
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TrangleC

New Member
I think developments like this: Cassidian

...will hasten the end of the big, expensive, manned fighter jet.

Drones and improvements in guiding systems for cruise missiles will make it easier to "cut the middle man" and deliver bombs to targets without strapping them to a manned jet first.

Being German, I was pissed about the Eurofighter Typhoon debacle and that we actually spend that much money on an already outdated aircraft without an AESA radar and with only minor stealth characteristics, but recently I realized that this might actually turn out to be a unexpected blessing in disguise.
It might cause the German Airforce to skip what is usually called the "5th generation" of fighter aircraft (X) and switch to unmanned systems sooner, much like many developing countries skipped the age of telephone land lines and introduced mobile telephone networks without bothering to invest into a land line network first.
If we would buy something like the F-35 in addition to the Typhoon now, like Great Britain does, it would be all the harder to convince politicians and the people of spending money on new drones/UAVs soon after.


(X) (I never got why people say the Typhoon is not a 5th generation fighter, no matter how critical I am of it. It was developed and build at the same time as the F-22, F-35 and the latest Russian machines, it has all the newest pilot-machine-interface gimmicks like voice control, helmet controlled weapon lock-on or three dimensional acoustic warning systems aso., most importantly it has super cruise engines, also a vector control system for the engine muzzle exists albeit it hasn't been ordered by the customers and when it comes to usage of new composite materials it is even more advanced than the F-22 and F-35.
The only substantial piece of modern technology it really lacks is an AESA radar, which is what makes me angry, so this is no "the Typhoon is better than X"-rant. But is that and the mere fact that it doesn't look as "science fiction-y" as the other designs enough to say it isn't a 5th generation aircraft? Does that make it somehow part of the previous generation that was developed 30 years prior?
Even a retarded kid is still part of its generation, isn't it?

I think using the word generation to distinguish machines that look stealthy enough from those that don't is simply a poor choice of words, especially when modern radar technology is quickly leveling the playing field between stealth and no stealth.
Considering the small stealth characteristic the Typhoon has comes from A: it being designed to have the smallest possible frontal silhouette and B: its composite material parts simply letting radar radiation pass through it, it might even be harder to detect by passive radar than those full blown stealth jets that rely on deflecting and absorbing radar radiation are.)
 
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