Chinese Naval buildup

I keep hearing about the Chinese naval buildup and the concerns that is has for the Japanese and Americans.

My question - what would the objectives be for the Chinese Navy and where can it flex its muscles.

Would Taiwan be the number 1 area for some sort of aggression and would the Americans become involved considering the financial issues they have?

Final question - What would the Japanese concerns be?

camlans said:

I keep hearing about the Chinese naval buildup and the concerns that is has for the Japanese and Americans.

My question - what would the objectives be for the Chinese Navy and where can it flex its muscles.

Would Taiwan be the number 1 area for some sort of aggression and would the Americans become involved considering the financial issues they have?

Final question - What would the Japanese concerns be?

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The Chinese are very capable of being a nuisance in the Western Pacific if they wish to be. Since they export so much its unlikely they would be aggressive as the Americans have developed strong ties with all of the free nations in the Western Pacific from Australia and New Zealand to Japan. It seems at the moment the Spratly Islands could be the place for a show of force, but I believe there will be a settlement eventually.

Keep in mind the US has separate defense cooperation treaties with Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, and Australia. Plus defense commitments with a number of former US Trust island nations as well. There is a reason why the Americans home port a carrier battle group in Japan.

camlans said:

I keep hearing about the Chinese naval buildup and the concerns that is has for the Japanese and Americans.

My question - what would the objectives be for the Chinese Navy and where can it flex its muscles.

Would Taiwan be the number 1 area for some sort of aggression and would the Americans become involved considering the financial issues they have?

Final question - What would the Japanese concerns be?

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Taiwan would be one area that the Chinese need to build up for. An invasion against Taiwan will require naval superiority in the area in order to move and supply the huge amount of troops, weapons, and supply; and China doesn't have that capability . . . Yet.

I feel that if China invaded Taiwan, America would become involved. The PRC refuses to have diplomatic relations with any nation that recognizes the ROC (Taiwan), and requires all nations with which it has diplomatic relations to make a statement recognizing its claims to Taiwan. This is why you see the political tap-dancing form the United states when dealing with China. Despite attempts to not provoke the Chinese by referring to Taiwan as an independent nation, and our withdrawl from the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty, America has agreements with Taiwan that would almost require us to intervene anyway. The Taiwan Relations Act states that the United States will "consider any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means, including by boycotts or embargoes, a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific area and is of grave concern to the United States"

Japans concerns would be less than Taiwan regarding invasion, although a hostile naval presence in the home waters will greatly affect the Japanese economy should shipping be disrupted, and by extension, so will the United states economy. In the event of a hostile act upon Japan, the United States would certainly enter the conflict, if it wasn't already.

Sea Toby said:

Keep in mind the US has separate defense cooperation treaties with Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, and Australia. Plus defense commitments with a number of former US Trust island nations as well. There is a reason why the Americans home port a carrier battle group in Japan.

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There are also treaties and agreements between countries inside the region as well.

For example, FPDA, Australia & Singapore, Australia & Japan etc.

PCShogun said:

Taiwan would be one area that the Chinese need to build up for. An invasion against Taiwan will require naval superiority in the area in order to move and supply the huge amount of troops, weapons, and supply; and China doesn't have that capability . . . Yet.

I feel that if China invaded Taiwan, America would become involved. The PRC refuses to have diplomatic relations with any nation that recognizes the ROC (Taiwan), and requires all nations with which it has diplomatic relations to make a statement recognizing its claims to Taiwan. This is why you see the political tap-dancing form the United states when dealing with China. Despite attempts to not provoke the Chinese by referring to Taiwan as an independent nation, and our withdrawl from the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty, America has agreements with Taiwan that would almost require us to intervene anyway. The Taiwan Relations Act states that the United States will "consider any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means, including by boycotts or embargoes, a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific area and is of grave concern to the United States"

Japans concerns would be less than Taiwan regarding invasion, although a hostile naval presence in the home waters will greatly affect the Japanese economy should shipping be disrupted, and by extension, so will the United states economy. In the event of a hostile act upon Japan, the United States would certainly enter the conflict, if it wasn't already.

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An invasion of Taiwan is highly unlikely given how much the two states have been moving towards some form of co-existence. And to say that China will not have diplomatic relations with nations that recognize Taiwan ROC is absurd.

Singapore recognizes Taiwan as an independent nation [Mod Edit: Text in bold technically not true. Singapore has a One-China policy and this has been reaffirmed many times. Our PM, Lee Hsien Loong has been quoted as follows: "Singapore consistently maintains a "One China" policy and opposes independence for Taiwan. We took this fundamental position even before we established diplomatic relations with the PRC."] and both the PRC and ROC have an embassy there. We send troops to train in Taiwan and China makes little fuss. China also works with other ASEAN countries that recognize Taiwan ROC.

Australia & Singapore

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I highly doubt the Chinese would be interested in Australia. Why go for koalas and kangaroos when they have pandas? Like these fellows

what would the objectives be for the Chinese Navy and where can it flex its muscles

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South China Sea but also some anti-piracy work off Somalia. I know they're not happy that their ships are getting boarded so last I've heard, they've been convoying them and sometimes with naval escort. Though they don't need aircraft carriers for that. But mainly South China Seas and the Pacific would be the focus since, if they are true to their word, the goal is defensive rather than offensive.

Would Taiwan be the number 1 area for some sort of aggression and would the Americans become involved considering the financial issues they have?

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Unless the US wants to desert an ally, it will have to intervene. Otherwise, how could other regional allies take the US at its word when the precedent is set that "Oh, sorry, can't afford this war. can't send those troops we promised X years ago. Good luck on your own!"

What would the Japanese concerns be?

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Simple, what are China's ambitions? The PRC is hardly a transparent nation and its motives are fairly unknown. Some would say that it is planning to re-assert itself as THE Asian power. Considering its history, I wouldn't be surprised if that does play a role. The 100 Years of Shame must still ring in some ears.

Then there's the fact that China and Japan have hardly had the best of relations in the past 100 years, it's not surprising the Japanese are a little concerned. And then China's rapid military growth and rather strange form of government (e.g. capitalist in practice, communist in rhetoric) makes it difficult to know what's an act, what's real and what's them trying to pull our legs. After all, thousands of years as the Middle Kingdom was interrupted by Western imperialism. This created a mentality that the Chinese brought culture to others and were therefore the most civilized race in Asia. Then the British come and start dumping opium and start a war when the Chinese refuse to allow anymore drugs into the country. So from a Chinese perspective, Europeans were invaders much as the Mongols were. Now China's free, strong and able to return to its former glory, so why not?

Considering the 2008 Olympics and the effort that went into the event, I think its safe to say that China is not looking for armed conflict with other world powers. Recall who owns a large chunk of US debt? Only to show that it will assert itself and will not be pushed around anymore. Perhaps a little rosy on my part but I don't think the US is doing much to minimize tensions either.

Outside of all the normal explanations on very China is having a naval build up. Another reason is that it does have the second largest economy in the world and will have the largest economy in the world in probably 20 years. Does it make sense for China to not have some naval muscle?

China's survival is based on continual trade with the rest of the world. That leads to prosperity for its people. Above all else, Chinese leadership needs to keep the economy going to satisfy an increasingly vocal and strong middle class. It will want to throw its weight around a little bit, which will cause discomfort to its neighbours. However, it also wants to keep the existing world order going, because it probably benefits from it more than any other country.

I see it sort of like the beginning of the Royal Navy's expansion during the 17th and 18th centuries. China has overseas economic trade routes that are often jeopardized by pirates (Somali and East Malacca Straits come to mind). As I said earlier, they're already convoying some ships and escorting others. Maritime assets need security and who knows what might happen with the South China Seas? I doubt it'll flare up into a naval conflict but its always safest to have a large, powerful navy on hand just in case.

Another question that should be asked:

Is the US prepared to go all the way IF China moves in on Taiwan?
From what i understand is that Taiwan has a smaller army in general but a bit more tech and western weapons which would keep China locked for some time as i do not believe that China has the ability to rush Taiwan.
However in the next years the scale is changing into China's favor.
I mean China is seriously putting up a effort to update their army and given their proximity to Taiwan how would the US be able to support Taiwan and defend Taiwan from a full invasion without crossing the line of a escalation to nucliare weapons?
And at what cost? Is the US prepared to fullfill that comitment?
And even if nukes are not used Taiwan is China's backyard so stopping China will be nearly impossible and i believe that IF China seriously wants Taiwan that it could get the job done knowing that the US might be superior to the Chinese but it does have the abilility to take it to the next level and thuse forcing the US in to some kind of cease fire.
I am not saying that China is stronger the the US and i am not saying that China could win this war but what i do say in all the wars the US and the west (EU/NATO) have ever fought they never did fight a giant like China is today and given the fact that China is getting better weapons and better training and is working overtime to research and develop new weapons this might become a even bigger problem in the near future, and imo with all the might the US can bring in i still believe that China could cause for incredible big problems specially if nukes become a option, as this is not a way for China to win this war ( it will get destroyed 100 times over) But it can effectively destroy a very large part of the US and target major partners as a retalliation if it faces a ultimate defeat....and to get back at my first question is the US and its allies prepared to go all the way?

CheeZe: And then China's rapid military growth and rather strange form of government (e.g. capitalist in practice, communist in rhetoric) makes it difficult to know what's an act, what's real and what's them trying to pull our legs.

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Actually that is incorrect. The only capitalist component of the PRC system is the economy. Deng Xaio Pengs reforms were only economic, never political. The Politburo and Party are not going to give up political power and nothing in the last 30 years has shown that this has changed. You only have to look at the issues Google had and controls the Party still exerts on the population, the internet and news to see that.

I think it some what hypocritical of the US complaining about the Chinese sailing 1 carrier especially as they have 11 carriers. I note that it put to sea again last week. Considering how much the PLAN are going to have to learn about carrier operations before they become proficient, the US and others have plenty of time to prepare. It must have been obvious for a long time that the PLAN would expand and develop a blue water capability because considering the Chinese position within Asia and the world, that would be a logical progression.

The Chinese like any nation want to project their power, and a blue water navy is one way of doing this. The PLAN has had warships doing piracy patrols in the Red Sea area and China will not be happy about its ships being pirated as mentioned earlier in this thread. They will take active measures. The PLAN working anti piracy missions puts them in contact with other navies they will learn from these contacts. IIRC they had a shoot-ex earlier this year with the RAN. A PLAN destroyer also had a port visit to Auckland, NZ earlier this year so they are slowly gaining blue water experience. Also the RNZN has had a few port visits to the PRC over the years. The Chinese aren't slow in learning.

China is a trading nation and it also is dependent upon imported energy so it does have a necessity to ensure security of its SLOC. Expansion of the PLAN to blue water capability is a necessity of securing its SLOC. The other issue is the South China Sea and it has been somewhat strident in asserting its claims to this area. I have read reports of its border protection ships harassing foreign vessels, such as Philippine or Vietnamese vessels, within this area. I note it isn't PLAN vessels, but paramilitary vessels. There is much at stake in this area with it being very resource rich. Also Taiwan and IMHO Taiwan will return to the fold one day, hopefully of its own volition. Beijing will never let go of Taiwan and one way or another it will obtain control of it. It is a political necessity and anything less would never be acceptable. Beijing rattles the sabre every now and again as a reminder to Taipei and Washington of its determination. If it comes to a war over Taiwan I do not think it will be Beijing who blinks first. I believe that PRC will be able to sustain losses far more than the US, and to put it bluntly, will be more ruthless in that it will be willing to accept a far higher casualty rate than the US in order to achieve its goal, which ultimately is reunification.

A valid point was raised, however, in that any war between China and the United States would be a disaster for perhaps the entire world. China and the United States are the largest producers and exporters. The U.S. is the largest consumer of Chinese goods outside of China.

Win or lose, the economic effects would be more damaging to either country than the actual conflict, assuming nuclear weapons are not used.

USA is the third largest exporter, after Germany. China no. 1. If counted as one unit, EU is no. 1, with China 2nd & USA still 3rd.

Apart from Taiwan been previously under Chinese control, why would they be pushing to claim it back?

It appears most of Taiwan's exports are actually going to China so would make more sense going down this route rather than a military one.

Any thoughts on this?

Beatmaster said:

Another question that should be asked:

Is the US prepared to go all the way IF China moves in on Taiwan?

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The answer to that question is the same if the US is willing to step into a conflict in Korea because THAT has seen skirmishes in the past few years. Recall the Cheonan and the island that got shelled.

With all regards to Taiwan, the current government has been working to strengthen ties with the mainland rather than estrange themselves. This is not the land of Chiang Kai-shek anymore. There's been speculation in the region whether they'll come to an agreement similar to what China has with Hong Kong.

Apart from Taiwan been previously under Chinese control, why would they be pushing to claim it back?

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You should brush up your Chinese history for that. Long story short, it goes back to the Nationalists led by the Kuomintang and the aforementioned CKS, who had founded the Republic of China in 1911 (though back then, the big hero to everyone was Sun Yatsen), not getting along with the Communists under Mao. The conflict between the two political parties erupted into conflict before the Japanese invasion in 1937 and the various Chinese factions (Nationalist, Communists and some warlords) put aside their differences and fought the Japanese. What right had they to butt into a purely Chinese conflict?

So, war ends with Nationalist China having received a lot of materiel from the Allies. CKS goes back to his anti-Commie plan and civil war starts again in 1946. It ends in 1949 with the Nationalists and CKS forced to retreat to Taiwan. Under CKS, the Nationalists viewed the Communists as rebels and that they were the legitimate government. The rest, as they say, is history.

The only capitalist component of the PRC system is the economy. Deng Xaio Pengs reforms were only economic, never political.

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@ngatimozart - Ah, my mistake then. My area of historical focus stops at the Cultural Revolution. Thanks for the clarification.

I agree with your assessment of the political arena. Historically, they are the Middle Kingdom and this is in the mindset of a lot of Chinese people. Asia, with the exception of those pesky jungle places, has been, in one way or another, under their dominion and influence. Korea paid tribute, Japan (until the late 1800s) took much of Chinese culture as their own from language to food. So it does not surprise me that China will be looking to restore some of that lost imperial grandeur, and if it snubs the West, so much the better as a token of repayment for the 100 Years of Shame.

CheeZe said:

The answer to that question is the same if the US is willing to step into a conflict in Korea because THAT has seen skirmishes in the past few years. Recall the Cheonan and the island that got shelled.

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Nope. Different question. There are US troops in S. Korea, but not in Taiwan.

If N. Korea invades S. Korea, the USA is automatically involved, because its troops are (deliberately) in the way, & will have to fight to defend themselves.

If China invades Taiwan, the USA has to make a decision on whether to intervene or not.

In the end, there are too many treaties in place for China to attack any other Asian nation without the US and/or other partners intervening.

Like others have already mentioned, China is interested in a blue water navy in order to protect their trade routes and acquire power projection capabilities.

Basically they need to develop a navy that can credibly challenge the USN to the point where the US takes China more seriously. IMHO the bigger threat for China will be India's military build up over the next 10-15 years.

Actually.. They could invade a lot of places and not run into any defence treaties. Mongolia, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar. Not sure about Bangladesh. I don't believe Vietnam and Russia have any defence agreement, despite strong historical ties.

If they invaded North Korea, I think everyone would be happy.

India vs. China? The two have a defence cooperation agreement. If things were really going that way, they wouldn't be so ready to have their troops work together. Though, border disputes do seem to mire their relations with India. But nothing new there.

Nope. Different question. There are US troops in S. Korea, but not in Taiwan.

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Huh, for some reason I thought there were US troops in Taiwan. Well, then you're correct.

CheeZe said:

Actually.. They could invade a lot of places and not run into any defence treaties. Mongolia, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar. Not sure about Bangladesh. I don't believe Vietnam and Russia have any defence agreement, despite strong historical ties.

If they invaded North Korea, I think everyone would be happy.

India vs. China? The two have a defence cooperation agreement. If things were really going that way, they wouldn't be so ready to have their troops work together. Though, border disputes do seem to mire their relations with India. But nothing new there.

Huh, for some reason I thought there were US troops in Taiwan. Well, then you're correct.

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Why would China bother invading countries which are its allies(Bangladesh and Myamar) ??

Not saying they would. Simply listed countries that China could invade without anyone else sending troops into.

China couldn't invade Bangladesh without crossing another country, & it certainly couldn't invade Bangladesh without India intervening. India might also be inclined to do something if China invaded Myanmar.

Vietnam & Thailand would both see invasions of Laos or Cambodia (the latter would have to be seaborne, or through another country) as direct threats, & Russian would go crazy if China invaded Mongolia.

swerve said:

China couldn't invade Bangladesh without crossing another country, & it certainly couldn't invade Bangladesh without India intervening. India might also be inclined to do something if China invaded Myanmar.

Vietnam & Thailand would both see invasions of Laos or Cambodia (the latter would have to be seaborne, or through another country) as direct threats, & Russian would go crazy if China invaded Mongolia.

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Thailand and the United States also have security agreements that would likely draw the United States into any conflicts with that nation. Despite the dissolution of the South East Asian treaty organization, the Manila pact remains in force. Thailand continues to be a key security ally in Asia, along with Australia, Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea.

Interesting to note is that Thailand has over 1 million personnel in their military, and something else . . . Thailand has an operational aircraft carrier. I admit though, the carrier currently has no operation air wing other than helicopters and spends most of its time at dock now.