The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
Live-AIS.com (@live_ais_com) on X
UPDATE: The Oil products carrier MINERVA ZEN had departed St #Petersburg on the 22nd Sep, and is likely to dock at Port of #Savannah. If that's the case the diesel agreement was definitely cracked some time back. - Current draft - 11m - Translates to ~38,000 MT - Or 275K - 280K bbl of disel - Po…
x.com
I stand corrected if this is accurate. But that means Putin and Trump made the deal a couple of weeks back. I still doubt the US gets much though as there is a shortage in Russia as well.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Could very well be the case. These two mutts deserve each other.
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
Yesterday, people were celebrating Zelensky’s “courageous” proclamations about “weak” Trump and whatnot. Today:
rsemmes
Active Member
Vivendi would disagree, Trump is not Russian; Trump is great.
If the parts for the destroyed equipment for the refineries are sent to Russia , and these are parts that have been sanctioned then Russia will be able to resume production more easily .and not just diesel
Russia though has banned export of diesel because of shortages and these would of course affected its military logistics as well as normal consumer usage ,I have viewed reports of sanctioned tankers going from South Korea to Russia perhaps Donny could talk to South Korea
Russia though has banned export of diesel because of shortages and these would of course affected its military logistics as well as normal consumer usage ,I have viewed reports of sanctioned tankers going from South Korea to Russia perhaps Donny could talk to South Korea
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
This is incorrect:Live-AIS.com (@live_ais_com) on X
UPDATE: The Oil products carrier MINERVA ZEN had departed St #Petersburg on the 22nd Sep, and is likely to dock at Port of #Savannah. If that's the case the diesel agreement was definitely cracked some time back. - Current draft - 11m - Translates to ~38,000 MT - Or 275K - 280K bbl of disel - Po…
I stand corrected if this is accurate. But that means Putin and Trump made the deal a couple of weeks back. I still doubt the US gets much though as there is a shortage in Russia as well.
This is also incorrect and I had talked about it a couple of times, probably in details, but here is not me saying this:
This is probably correct:
The funny part is when the same people talking about Russia having no diesel to export also say how dares he (the orange man) boost Russian war budget to continue waging the war. I will comment more on the subject later.
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
Comedy Central:
Reality:
www.harneys.com
But we will gladly buy the same diesel from Turkey (or elsewhere). And again with the biggest sanctions nonsense (I posted on exactly that fairly recently). These people cannot help themselves. And I don’t even want to talk about the EU scooping up all Russian LNG exports they possibly can.
A lemming leader also can’t help himself - I completely lack the depth on most of the subjects outside a few I post about, but I must keep posting.
Stanimir deserves respect for admitting mistakes (and many other things), though not entirely admitting (he said this was not going to happen, but he also said Russia exported zero diesel in September and shortage and all, whereas they have never stopped delivering diesel to the “friendlies”, 100-150 kbpd). Yet, he insists on bad strategic moves to be taken by Ukraine from here on, in my opinion:
But I also agree with Dan on the second point. Paradoxically, this disastrous deal presents Ukraine with an opportunity.
Kyiv should intensify its strikes against Russian oil refineries and energy infrastructure, while making clear that any cessation of such attacks must be mutual, never unilateral.
If Trump wants Russian oil and diesel to flow, he will have to reach an understanding with Ukraine, not merely with Putin.
Ukraine must not allow Washington and Moscow to negotiate over its head while denying it the leverage it has earned on the battlefield.
That is the language of power. And perhaps the only language this administration truly understands.
These “energy ceasefire” type proposals are nonsense. Ukraine not hitting RU refineries is not equivalent to Russia ceasing their attacks on UA electrical grid and other “energy-related” infrastructure. Even if for a simple reason that these attacks are not existential for Russia; they are for Ukraine. I mean the damage is not comparable. I said recently that one must be an idiot to think that Russia would accept such a proposal. This is still true. Ukraine does not have this leverage and exactly because of the language of power that Dr Dobrev talks about.
The best they can do here is talk about a “sea ceasefire” of some form. Even that is extremely questionable and unlikely to happen, in my opinion. Maybe they can wiggle out some air defence out of it as well, but I would not count on that either because Trump will probably get back at it with Iran before or after the midterms (which Republicans are most likely to lose and lose “bigly”). Some nominal amount of Patriot missiles will not suffice though because Russia will probably increase the pressure and intensify their attacks in the near future to reinforce/reiterate their success (this deal with Trump). I am not sure what else is there to bargain with.
The thing is that Ukraine had shifted the balance and focus off the frontline and expanded the battlefield. While they are unlikely to win at the frontline, they most certainly cannot win the battle they themselves have now defined. I guess a mandatory note: yes, Russia has been striking various Ukrainian infrastructure for years (a clue why they cannot win this type of war), but Russian targeting has definitely shifted and expanded since the aforementioned Ukrainian actions. For example:
The overnight Russian attack was the most significant blow to Ukrainian businesses since the start of the full-scale invasion, with logistics centers, warehouses, and production facilities hit.
A tweet from WarTranslated from August 5, details in the link (there are two posts). Bigger things have happened since, but this one kind of drives it home. Things are just not the same. Again, I am not sure what the thought process is here, but reality behind the curtains is different from the advertisement (read propaganda) and payload delivery matters much more than a few Wildberries warehouses and the like. Especially when we are talking about one attack vs weeks and months of (very expensive) efforts. Note that we are going to wait just a tad longer for that complete collapse of the banking system from those strikes on Wildberries, as well as the collapse from the fuel shortages, both of which Stanimir had been talking about.
The problem is that hate is all good and dandy (not really), but it blinds the person from seeing how things actually work (even if the person knows it) and what is actually happening. Many very smart people keep talking ridiculous stuff because they keep making up the math that they want to see. Neither math, nor reality work this way.
I predict (but do not insist on being absolutely right, time will tell) that along with massive attacks on UA infrastructure of all kinds, we will see a shift in the frontline dynamics as well in the coming months. Alienating Americans (Trump in particular) is not the best strategy here. On the other hand, diesel prices, all other things remaining equal, will fall a bit naturally as the crop season is coming to an end, so he will take credit for it, emphasizing this epic deal and will thank Putin once more. So who knows…
Anyway, I got carried away a bit and didn’t even touch on what I wanted to say on the subject of this deal and its potential effects. Maybe tomorrow.
By the way, talking about crop season, I have never seen this much standing (ie uncut) or swathed and not by now combined crop this time of year around here. (Edit: the increase in diesel prices of 75-90% year-on-year for many farmers meant the difference of land/equipment loan(s) payments that were/are about due, on top of seeding at then record prices. It is clear where the money would go first. The new loans aren’t free either. And neither are shenanigans, such as two-week excursions and special military operations).
Reality:
Russia sanctions update: UK exempts Russian-origin diesel and jet fuel from Russian crude new import ban | Regulatory Blog | Harneys
On 19 May 2026, the Department for Business and Trade published General Trade Licence GBSAN0004. The Licence exempts diesel and jet fuel refined from Russian-origin crude oil in third countries from the new import ban introduced under Chapter 4IB of the Russia Regulations 2019.
www.harneys.com
But we will gladly buy the same diesel from Turkey (or elsewhere). And again with the biggest sanctions nonsense (I posted on exactly that fairly recently). These people cannot help themselves. And I don’t even want to talk about the EU scooping up all Russian LNG exports they possibly can.
A lemming leader also can’t help himself - I completely lack the depth on most of the subjects outside a few I post about, but I must keep posting.
Stanimir deserves respect for admitting mistakes (and many other things), though not entirely admitting (he said this was not going to happen, but he also said Russia exported zero diesel in September and shortage and all, whereas they have never stopped delivering diesel to the “friendlies”, 100-150 kbpd). Yet, he insists on bad strategic moves to be taken by Ukraine from here on, in my opinion:
But I also agree with Dan on the second point. Paradoxically, this disastrous deal presents Ukraine with an opportunity.
Kyiv should intensify its strikes against Russian oil refineries and energy infrastructure, while making clear that any cessation of such attacks must be mutual, never unilateral.
If Trump wants Russian oil and diesel to flow, he will have to reach an understanding with Ukraine, not merely with Putin.
Ukraine must not allow Washington and Moscow to negotiate over its head while denying it the leverage it has earned on the battlefield.
That is the language of power. And perhaps the only language this administration truly understands.
These “energy ceasefire” type proposals are nonsense. Ukraine not hitting RU refineries is not equivalent to Russia ceasing their attacks on UA electrical grid and other “energy-related” infrastructure. Even if for a simple reason that these attacks are not existential for Russia; they are for Ukraine. I mean the damage is not comparable. I said recently that one must be an idiot to think that Russia would accept such a proposal. This is still true. Ukraine does not have this leverage and exactly because of the language of power that Dr Dobrev talks about.
The best they can do here is talk about a “sea ceasefire” of some form. Even that is extremely questionable and unlikely to happen, in my opinion. Maybe they can wiggle out some air defence out of it as well, but I would not count on that either because Trump will probably get back at it with Iran before or after the midterms (which Republicans are most likely to lose and lose “bigly”). Some nominal amount of Patriot missiles will not suffice though because Russia will probably increase the pressure and intensify their attacks in the near future to reinforce/reiterate their success (this deal with Trump). I am not sure what else is there to bargain with.
The thing is that Ukraine had shifted the balance and focus off the frontline and expanded the battlefield. While they are unlikely to win at the frontline, they most certainly cannot win the battle they themselves have now defined. I guess a mandatory note: yes, Russia has been striking various Ukrainian infrastructure for years (a clue why they cannot win this type of war), but Russian targeting has definitely shifted and expanded since the aforementioned Ukrainian actions. For example:
The overnight Russian attack was the most significant blow to Ukrainian businesses since the start of the full-scale invasion, with logistics centers, warehouses, and production facilities hit.
A tweet from WarTranslated from August 5, details in the link (there are two posts). Bigger things have happened since, but this one kind of drives it home. Things are just not the same. Again, I am not sure what the thought process is here, but reality behind the curtains is different from the advertisement (read propaganda) and payload delivery matters much more than a few Wildberries warehouses and the like. Especially when we are talking about one attack vs weeks and months of (very expensive) efforts. Note that we are going to wait just a tad longer for that complete collapse of the banking system from those strikes on Wildberries, as well as the collapse from the fuel shortages, both of which Stanimir had been talking about.
The problem is that hate is all good and dandy (not really), but it blinds the person from seeing how things actually work (even if the person knows it) and what is actually happening. Many very smart people keep talking ridiculous stuff because they keep making up the math that they want to see. Neither math, nor reality work this way.
I predict (but do not insist on being absolutely right, time will tell) that along with massive attacks on UA infrastructure of all kinds, we will see a shift in the frontline dynamics as well in the coming months. Alienating Americans (Trump in particular) is not the best strategy here. On the other hand, diesel prices, all other things remaining equal, will fall a bit naturally as the crop season is coming to an end, so he will take credit for it, emphasizing this epic deal and will thank Putin once more. So who knows…
Anyway, I got carried away a bit and didn’t even touch on what I wanted to say on the subject of this deal and its potential effects. Maybe tomorrow.
By the way, talking about crop season, I have never seen this much standing (ie uncut) or swathed and not by now combined crop this time of year around here. (Edit: the increase in diesel prices of 75-90% year-on-year for many farmers meant the difference of land/equipment loan(s) payments that were/are about due, on top of seeding at then record prices. It is clear where the money would go first. The new loans aren’t free either. And neither are shenanigans, such as two-week excursions and special military operations).
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rsemmes
Active Member
I was wrong...
Trump is not going to impose sanctions, Trump is going to organize a SMO, kidnap Zelenski and put him on trial... As soon as he gets a friendly replacement president ready.
www.theguardian.com
Trump is not going to impose sanctions, Trump is going to organize a SMO, kidnap Zelenski and put him on trial... As soon as he gets a friendly replacement president ready.
Trump says Ukraine needs a new leader after diesel deal with Russia
US president suggests Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has not done enough to end war
www.theguardian.com
Comedy Central:
View attachment 55760
Reality:
Russia sanctions update: UK exempts Russian-origin diesel and jet fuel from Russian crude new import ban | Regulatory Blog | Harneys
On 19 May 2026, the Department for Business and Trade published General Trade Licence GBSAN0004. The Licence exempts diesel and jet fuel refined from Russian-origin crude oil in third countries from the new import ban introduced under Chapter 4IB of the Russia Regulations 2019.
View attachment 55761
But we will gladly buy the same diesel from Turkey (or elsewhere). And again with the biggest sanctions nonsense (I posted on exactly that fairly recently). These people cannot help themselves. And I don’t even want to talk about the EU scooping up all Russian LNG exports they possibly can.
View attachment 55763
A lemming leader also can’t help himself - I completely lack the depth on most of the subjects outside a few I post about, but I must keep posting.
View attachment 55764
Stanimir deserves respect for admitting mistakes (and many other things), though not entirely admitting (he said this was not going to happen, but he also said Russia exported zero diesel in September and shortage and all, whereas they have never stopped delivering diesel to the “friendlies”, 100-150 kbpd). Yet, he insists on bad strategic moves to be taken by Ukraine from here on, in my opinion:
But I also agree with Dan on the second point. Paradoxically, this disastrous deal presents Ukraine with an opportunity.
Kyiv should intensify its strikes against Russian oil refineries and energy infrastructure, while making clear that any cessation of such attacks must be mutual, never unilateral.
If Trump wants Russian oil and diesel to flow, he will have to reach an understanding with Ukraine, not merely with Putin.
Ukraine must not allow Washington and Moscow to negotiate over its head while denying it the leverage it has earned on the battlefield.
That is the language of power. And perhaps the only language this administration truly understands.
These “energy ceasefire” type proposals are nonsense. Ukraine not hitting RU refineries is not equivalent to Russia ceasing their attacks on UA electrical grid and other “energy-related” infrastructure. Even if for a simple reason that these attacks are not existential for Russia; they are for Ukraine. I mean the damage is not comparable. I said recently that one must be an idiot to think that Russia would accept such a proposal. This is still true. Ukraine does not have this leverage and exactly because of the language of power that Dr Dobrev talks about.
The best they can do here is talk about a “sea ceasefire” of some form. Even that is extremely questionable and unlikely to happen, in my opinion. Maybe they can wiggle out some air defence out of it as well, but I would not count on that either because Trump will probably get back at it with Iran before or after the midterms (which Republicans are most likely to lose and lose “bigly”). Some nominal amount of Patriot missiles will not suffice though because Russia will probably increase the pressure and intensify their attacks in the near future to reinforce/reiterate their success (this deal with Trump). I am not sure what else is there to bargain with.
The thing is that Ukraine had shifted the balance and focus off the frontline and expanded the battlefield. While they are unlikely to win at the frontline, they most certainly cannot win the battle they themselves have now defined. I guess a mandatory note: yes, Russia has been striking various Ukrainian infrastructure for years (a clue why they cannot win this type of war), but Russian targeting has definitely shifted and expanded since the aforementioned Ukrainian actions. For example:
The overnight Russian attack was the most significant blow to Ukrainian businesses since the start of the full-scale invasion, with logistics centers, warehouses, and production facilities hit.
A tweet from WarTranslated from August 5, details in the link (there are two posts). Bigger things have happened since, but this one kind of drives it home. Things are just not the same. Again, I am not sure what the thought process is here, but reality behind the curtains is different from the advertisement (read propaganda) and payload delivery matters much more than a few Wildberries warehouses and the like. Especially when we are talking about one attack vs weeks and months of (very expensive) efforts. Note that we are going to wait just a tad longer for that complete collapse of the banking system from those strikes on Wildberries, as well as the collapse from the fuel shortages, both of which Stanimir had been talking about.
The problem is that hate is all good and dandy (not really), but it blinds the person from seeing how things actually work (even if the person knows it) and what is actually happening. Many very smart people keep talking ridiculous stuff because they keep making up the math that they want to see. Neither math, nor reality work this way.
I predict (but do not insist on being absolutely right, time will tell) that along with massive attacks on UA infrastructure of all kinds, we will see a shift in the frontline dynamics as well in the coming months. Alienating Americans (Trump in particular) is not the best strategy here. On the other hand, diesel prices, all other things remaining equal, will fall a bit naturally as the crop season is coming to an end, so he will take credit for it, emphasizing this epic deal and will thank Putin once more. So who knows…
Anyway, I got carried away a bit and didn’t even touch on what I wanted to say on the subject of this deal and its potential effects. Maybe tomorrow.
By the way, talking about crop season, I have never seen this much standing (ie uncut) or swathed and not by now combined crop this time of year around here. (Edit: the increase in diesel prices of 75-90% year-on-year for many farmers meant the difference of land/equipment loan(s) payments that were/are about due, on top of seeding at then record prices. It is clear where the money would go first. The new loans aren’t free either. And neither are shenanigans, such as two-week excursions and special military operations).
Apparently Trump is saying that Russia and Ukraine have agreed to some form of energy ceasefire. No details provided as of yet. I await your next blog on the subject.
wild_Willie2
Member
To be be honest, I really think the Orange one is spouting brainfarts once again. Especially as the Ukrainians did not know about this ceasefire before the idiot in chief announced it. There is no way Russia is going to agree with this.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #15,352
For sure this one is true. Unlike the other ones he's announced. Trump is very reliable, competent, and credible.
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
Haha. My best guess is that Trump and Putin agreed that Ukraine should stop attacks on Russian refineries (and, maybe, Russia won’t attack Ukrainian fuel related facilities in return). Laughing. Trump then went on with his attack on Ukraine, now threatening to stop weapon deliveries (source to avoid paywalls):
Musk is hinting for two days now there are more options available to manhandle Ukraine:
US has plenty of leverage over Ukraine. Russia has leverage over diesel prices (and hence Trump), provided refineries are repaired. This is where seaspear’s post comes in above. Now Russia has leverage blaming Ukraine and pressuring Trump to further drop/suspend the sanctions on refinery parts and equipment. In the meantime, the Euros are trying to figure out whose court the ball is in now and what the hell do they do.
Also, I am old enough to remember the last time Trump announced RU-UA energy ceasefire on Sept 14, 2026:
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
On the other hand, reading through his September post again, he said that Ukraine has agreed not to hit Russian energy targets, while Russia agreed to do so in return. So go figure. Sounds like a similar arrangement is in place now.
Grammar and commas are serious business. Lol.
Grammar and commas are serious business. Lol.
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
My blog on the subject was not wrong. Laughing.
President Trump's announcement Sunday about an "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine referred to a potential deal that includes each side stopping attacks on oil refineries — and he expects Volodymyr Zelensky to abide by it, a White House official said.
President Trump's announcement Sunday about an "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine referred to a potential deal that includes each side stopping attacks on oil refineries — and he expects Volodymyr Zelensky to abide by it, a White House official said.
- The official said if attacks on oil refineries cease, a deal to stop hitting power plants and energy grids could come next.
personaldesas
Active Member
Don't forget he knows words. He has the best words!
personaldesas
Active Member
It’s not really about the US buying diesel, it’s about lowering the price by increasing supply. The US is a net diesel exporter, they produce more than they use. Diesel is priced globally though, so when Russian supply drops in or out, US prices are affected, too.
rsemmes
Active Member
After 40 days responding...
Zelenskyy threatens to respond.
www.theguardian.com
The US is threatening to stop the procurement system that provides Ukraine with weapons in order to press Kyiv to halt its deep strikes on Russian energy infrastructure.
www.theguardian.com
I wonder who has leverage there.
PS
I am starting to think that KipPotapych could be right about the lemmings... Even with all their US systems and Ukrainian expertise, S. Arabia cannot defend its own airport, unless the Houthis are using the latest model of US missile.
Zelenskyy threatens to respond.
Zelenskyy vows to retaliate if Russian strikes on Ukraine’s power grid continue
Ukrainian leader says he was surprised by Trump’s ‘energy ceasefire’ announcement, which was posted as Russian drones hit Kyiv
www.theguardian.com
The US is threatening to stop the procurement system that provides Ukraine with weapons in order to press Kyiv to halt its deep strikes on Russian energy infrastructure.
Ukraine war briefing: Russia attacks multiple power plants after Trump energy ceasefire claim
Zelenskyy says Ukrainian skies filled with Russian drones after truce claim, which Moscow has yet to confirm, as six killed in strikes. What we know on day 1,692
www.theguardian.com
I wonder who has leverage there.
PS
I am starting to think that KipPotapych could be right about the lemmings... Even with all their US systems and Ukrainian expertise, S. Arabia cannot defend its own airport, unless the Houthis are using the latest model of US missile.
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But the proposed sale is far too small to affect the price significantly.