The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[KipPotapych]

Another example:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2010072529504023015

Some wonder about the targets near by and repeating the mantra that there must be something of military significance nearby because (the last post in the exchange):



Ghillie there, of course, doesn’t realize the target can be hundreds of km away from that site, they just hope and try to hypnotize themselves that what was hit was not the actual target.

Wessel swears that they can hear the drone trying to correct itself, so it must be the EW that is affecting its actual course. Vojtech Paclik from Czech Republic, at the same time, is suggesting that video may actually be a fake.



The whole thing reminds a badly organized support group with the attendants (some with mental issues and/or limited mental capacity) running it themselves without moderation to point out the nonsense.

 

[vikingatespam]

"Thank you for the moderation in the exercise of your power."
I cannot understand, then, your insistence on me answering questions, not everyone is answering every question. You may have noticed.

Of course no one is answering all questions, but you are answering virtually none.

Do you know that game about matching the two parts of a sentence? You provided three lines, your 3rd line:
"Unless of course the entire "NATO is a threat" is simply a lie from Putin. His actions indicate NATO is not a threat. Putin has no fear of NATO."
...
"NATO is a smokescreen...", " Putin doesn't want peace..."
Me: "Of course, if the only explanation of everything is exactly what your confirmation bias is telling you it is... You are right."
You are right, things are exactly (and only) as you say they are. My 3rd line (this shorter one is also) an answer to your, guess what?, 3rd line.

On the other hand, if we take NATO, for example, Russia has been talking about it for a very long time; an eternal smokescreen? The last thing I remember was a kind "Ukraine has the right to join NATO" statement by NATO. When did your "UKR and NATO have already agreed to keep UKR out of NATO." happened? I haven't been able to read it. Did they sing a treaty? Where?

You posted in 13532:

"Of course, if the only explanation of everything is exactly what your confirmation bias is telling you it is... You are right."

I responded in 13534:

"Another classic rsemmes response. Lacking in clarity, context and content."

What exactly is my "confirmation bias" ? Neither one of us knows what Putin is thinking. All we can do is judge by his actions. Actions such as:

1) claiming multiple different reasons for invading UKR (Nazis, biolabs, RU people, NATO, etc)
2) doing his best to push SWE and FIN into NATO
3) ignoring that UKR could not join NATO

His actions lead me to conclusions. What are you basing your logic on ?

I could very well be wrong. Maybe Putin really was afraid of (as of 2021) a dying NATO with ever reducing military expenditures and reason for existence. In which case, he sure made NATO more relevant, which strengthens NATO, not weakening it.

I am even more curious about the referendum you had in your country before invading Iraq. People decide what exactly? "This is about Putin. Putin is acting in his interest, not the interest of Russia." You mean... Business as usual? Human History? Reagan was importing drugs into US for the good of the people? Bush invaded Iraq (remember, the same dictator, good old Saddam, that invaded Iran. Reagan, again) to overcome homelessness in the US? Trump is going to invade Venezuela to provide health insurance to the US?

None of that is relevant to the UKR-RU conflict forum and only serves your desire of "whataboutism". Classic RU propaganda line.

You are right. As in "...the one who doesn't want to see." You have one opinion about Russia and NATO, western media disagrees with you; and History books too.

Let me know which western media and history books are reading Putin's mind.

Repeating "Czechoslovakia 1938" is repeating "Teschen 1938", but we all know that "International Law" is and always have been a joke, right?

??? "Czechoslovakia 1938" is a reference to disarming your opponent through treaty, only to break the treaty soon after as they (Czech.) had no means to resist at that point. Its not a reference to "international law".

 

[vikingatespam]

Ukraine decided to put a nail in the coffin of their economy:

I could be snark and say "what economy ?" UKR would be a basket case without western assistance.

Jokes aside, that is probably true. Saw someone also writing today that this is a missed opportunity for the big Euros to offer their entire military capabilities, all they have, in a show of solidarity and unity, to protect Ukraine in case of another Russian invasion knowing fully well that the Russians will reject the proposal.

Is there a single European nation that can field a fully staffed and equipped combat BDE with supplies for a month ?

The current war involves Russia first and foremost, as the aggressor and the biggest perceived threat. Russia has concerns that they had expressed and specified as the reasons for them waging the war.

Even if you assume that NATO expansion is the issue, isnt the 20 point plan already agreeing to no UKR in NATO ?

At no point so far have I seen an honest attempt to address those concerns. In the grand scheme of things, the entire situation reminds me of this thread: Russia has concerns -> but they are nonsense and should be disregarded or not taken seriously. So my take here is that this war will continue until a) these concerns are seriously addressed (regardless of what anyone believes in - if this is a fairy tale, it should be reasonably easy to address) or b) Russia is defeated, as many dream of, on the battlefield -> made to accept the terms. Nothing will change until one of the two happens (Russian victory is another option, but I am afraid a bigger war may (probably would) take place before that happens in order to prevent exactly that).

Putin wont agree to anything that blunts his maximal demands.

I doubt there will be meaningful change until either Putin dies, or UKR starts losing ground fast.

 

[vikingatespam]

If Trumps denies Venezuelan oil to China, China will have to buy more oil from Russia. Is Trump helping Russia and himself?

Trump says Venezuela will be 'turning over' up to 50 million barrels of oil to US

Earlier the president said US oil firms could be "up and running" in the country within 18 months.

www.bbc.co.uk

The problem is that there is no easy way to get more RU oil to China. There is no (RU-China) pipeline expansion in the near future (power of Siberia 2 expected to start deliveries post 2030) and you are limited to the shadow fleet of tankers.

 

[vikingatespam]

[RU Oreshnik use]

Appears to be the Russia answer to the UK and French “military hubs across Ukraine”.

No one should be surprised by this use of the O. Whats more surprising is that it didnt blow up on the launchpad like half of them do.

 

[vikingatespam]

"Whatever helps" Just like Trump, that it is illegal it is not relevant to you.

Are you paid by the Kremlin for every "whataboutism" you can introduce ? Take your Trump/Venez. concerns into another forum.

 

[vikingatespam]

I apologize for this lengthy delay on this topic. On December 15, 2025, UKR managed to sneak an underwater drone into the Novorossiysk naval base. It detonated close to a Kilo class submarine, tentatively identified as the Kolpino.

This analysis claims that sub is damaged and unavailable for further use. Since then, I have been looking for further evidence of damage or use.

The topic is also covered by Perun:

Referencing the UK MOD, this claims that the sub is out of general use:

Ukrainian underwater drone strike puts Russian submarine out of action

A Ukrainian underwater drone strike has left a Russian Kilo-class submarine heavily damaged and out of action at Novorossiysk.

cuashub.com

.

These sites claim that based upon satellite images, the sub is riding low and has likely taken on water:

'Impossible to Fix': Russia's Kilo-Class 'Black Hole' Submarines are An 'Endangered Species'

Kilo-Class submarines capable of firing the Novator Kalibr cruise missile, which has been used extensively in strikes against targets in Ukraine.

www.19fortyfive.com

and furthermore, virtually impossible to fully repair until it can reach the Baltic sea.

A google AI search for "has the Russian sub Kolpino moved since December" claims that it has not moved, and therefore is likely out of action. A grain of salt goes with AI, of course.

Im hoping that one of the typical naval channels on youtube can provide further satellite images in the near future.

 

[rsemmes]

Where exactly do you see any illegal action? Please elaborate. It becomes illegal when we lose. Before that its risk management.

Look this tanker here for example, got neutralized by a single drone, another one followed. That alone escalated the risk to the point that shipping companies avoid russia.

As for the terminal, its still closed by today. The image is from November.

As for now, all terminals at Novorossiysk are closed.

I checked, this is all tankers in the black sea at the moment. Looks good for me:

View attachment 54153

So oil transport through black sea is down by 100% as for today.

And thats why attacking those tankers was so important. Shipholders are easily scared away by such things.

“It becomes illegal when we lose.” Trump, welcome to the forum. (In what dictatorship/dystopia do you live?)

You could read what it was posted about the terminals, here, in November/December, but it seems that you only care about what you want. Keep your course steady in your fairy tale.

 

[rsemmes]

As is your want, you point out in pretty much all your posts that the west is performing illegal actions daily. It's like you believe you're on some sort of higher horse that you get to point out the hypocrisy of anyone supporting western views. I find you're much like the fence sitters who claim to be neutral and free of bias and yet every post shows otherwise. I've not hidden the fact that I support Ukraine nor do I try to obfuscate my intent.

So...
No, I did not say: "what Russia does is not illegal". I do agree; and English is not my first language.
So...
No, I did not say: “is performing”. I posted: “has been committing”; and English is not my first language.
But, I wonder if you include US in your “western” or if you want to position it “off the shoulder of Orion”. I also wonder if by “western views” you mean keeping our mouths shut about US sinking boats in the Caribbean; and then killing the survivors.
I could be that I am on top of a higher horse... It seems that I am able to see crimes committed by Ukraine and crimes committed by Russia; and by us (as I have posted). I can also see more than a few one-eyed high horses (their hypocrisy).
Do I claim to be neutral, do I claim to be free of bias? I do claim that I cannot delete from my memory what I have read, all the crimes committed by the western democracies.
“Pretty much” and “shows”. So, it “shows” but it is not there; and English is not my first language. "To hide", "to obfuscate"... Hey! English is not my first language.

One other option is that you see what you want to see.

Edit
I posted: Ukraine are a bunch of criminals, Russia are a bunch of criminals; we are a bunch of criminals. (Athens and Sparta were a bunch of criminals). High horse or not blind?

 

[rsemmes]

Of course no one is answering all questions, but you are answering virtually none.



You posted in 13532:

"Of course, if the only explanation of everything is exactly what your confirmation bias is telling you it is... You are right."

I responded in 13534:

"Another classic rsemmes response. Lacking in clarity, context and content."

What exactly is my "confirmation bias" ? Neither one of us knows what Putin is thinking. All we can do is judge by his actions. Actions such as:

1) claiming multiple different reasons for invading UKR (Nazis, biolabs, RU people, NATO, etc)
2) doing his best to push SWE and FIN into NATO
3) ignoring that UKR could not join NATO

His actions lead me to conclusions. What are you basing your logic on ?

I could very well be wrong. Maybe Putin really was afraid of (as of 2021) a dying NATO with ever reducing military expenditures and reason for existence. In which case, he sure made NATO more relevant, which strengthens NATO, not weakening it.



None of that is relevant to the UKR-RU conflict forum and only serves your desire of "whataboutism". Classic RU propaganda line.



Let me know which western media and history books are reading Putin's mind.



??? "Czechoslovakia 1938" is a reference to disarming your opponent through treaty, only to break the treaty soon after as they (Czech.) had no means to resist at that point. Its not a reference to "international law".

So, I don't answer questions (What % is “virtually none”? Is for a friend) but, I answer “lacking in clarity, context and content”, whataboutisms and propaganda; sorry, Russian propaganda.
As an anecdote or reference, Czechoslovakia 1938 is Poland taking Teschen in 1938 and how respectful we, western democracies, are of International Law.
You see Czechoslovakia but not Teschen?

 

[rsemmes]

The problem is that there is no easy way to get more RU oil to China. There is no (RU-China) pipeline expansion in the near future (power of Siberia 2 expected to start deliveries post 2030) and you are limited to the shadow fleet of tankers.

Don't you read the news? There's no need, Trump has offered China all the Venezuelan oil it wants.

 

[Vanquish]

So...
No, I did not say: "what Russia does is not illegal". I do agree; and English is not my first language.
So...
No, I did not say: “is performing”. I posted: “has been committing”; and English is not my first language.
But, I wonder if you include US in your “western” or if you want to position it “off the shoulder of Orion”. I also wonder if by “western views” you mean keeping our mouths shut about US sinking boats in the Caribbean; and then killing the survivors.
I could be that I am on top of a higher horse... It seems that I am able to see crimes committed by Ukraine and crimes committed by Russia; and by us (as I have posted). I can also see more than a few one-eyed high horses (their hypocrisy).
Do I claim to be neutral, do I claim to be free of bias? I do claim that I cannot delete from my memory what I have read, all the crimes committed by the western democracies.
“Pretty much” and “shows”. So, it “shows” but it is not there; and English is not my first language. "To hide", "to obfuscate"... Hey! English is not my first language.

One other option is that you see what you want to see.

Edit
I posted: Ukraine are a bunch of criminals, Russia are a bunch of criminals; we are a bunch of criminals. (Athens and Sparta were a bunch of criminals). High horse or not blind?

@resemmes I'm not a student of history although I've been around long enough to have witnessed some of it. I do agree with you that in regards to this thread there is hypocrisy, on both sides. I've noticed if you will that while you take great pains to show any western hypocrisy, the same transparency is in rather short supply in regards Russian actions. Perhaps that's not your intent. As many have pointed out wars tend to devolve into many grey areas, that's not news to anyone. I find it disappointing that we can't learn from our history. The part of your post that I highlighted,
"Do I claim to be neutral, do I claim to be free of bias? I do claim that I cannot delete from my memory what I have read, all the crimes committed by the western democracies". illustrates that you indeed have a bias against western democracies. You seem to have more than a passing interest in history. Perhaps you could impart some of that history perspective from both sides much like @Feanor does.

 

[Feanor]

I apologize for this lengthy delay on this topic. On December 15, 2025, UKR managed to sneak an underwater drone into the Novorossiysk naval base. It detonated close to a Kilo class submarine, tentatively identified as the Kolpino.

This analysis claims that sub is damaged and unavailable for further use. Since then, I have been looking for further evidence of damage or use.

The topic is also covered by Perun:

Referencing the UK MOD, this claims that the sub is out of general use:

Ukrainian underwater drone strike puts Russian submarine out of action

A Ukrainian underwater drone strike has left a Russian Kilo-class submarine heavily damaged and out of action at Novorossiysk.

cuashub.com

.

These sites claim that based upon satellite images, the sub is riding low and has likely taken on water:

'Impossible to Fix': Russia's Kilo-Class 'Black Hole' Submarines are An 'Endangered Species'

Kilo-Class submarines capable of firing the Novator Kalibr cruise missile, which has been used extensively in strikes against targets in Ukraine.

www.19fortyfive.com

and furthermore, virtually impossible to fully repair until it can reach the Baltic sea.

A google AI search for "has the Russian sub Kolpino moved since December" claims that it has not moved, and therefore is likely out of action. A grain of salt goes with AI, of course.

Im hoping that one of the typical naval channels on youtube can provide further satellite images in the near future.

It's on things like this that I really miss navy-korabel. He was a fantastic researcher and very thorough. I don't have any good confirmation. The boat moved shortly before the strike and the unmanned boat hit where it was parked previously. Had it not moved the damage would have been catastrophic. But as is it was a near miss. A sufficiently large explosion could still have damaged the boat substantially.

I will try to later post on the subject of “order” in the NATO thread where some of it was moved and I will tie it to Greenland.


Controversial versions/accounts of the damage caused by the Oreshnik strike yesterday have emerged. The NYT described it as follows:

The missile landed on a military site in western Ukraine and reportedly inflicted little damage, leaving a couple of unimpressive craters in the frozen earth. But its true target was farther afield, analysts and political officials said: Ukraine’s allies in Europe.

Via the archive: https://archive.ph/L0LWa

The mayor of Lviv, on the other hand, said that the damage that exists “is certainly horrible”. Ragozin has a video with English subtitles here:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2009724928057299138

I still tend to think that it was more related to the Paris agreement of “intent” as other means would probably cause more significant damage. it’s not like Lviv area had never been hit before.


Neat when people argue with some of the more recognized experts in the field though:

View attachment 54145


Edit: There is also rhis:

View attachment 54146

View attachment 54147

It appears initial reports were wrong and it actually hit the L'vov airport area, likely targeting the repair plant there. It works on Ukraine's MiG-29s, and we've seen some footage lately that suggests ex-Azeri MiG-29s are going to Ukraine.

 

[seaspear]

Its sobering to see this action by Russia in Ukraine is almost as long as its war with Nazi Germany, its easy to reflect from a distance, of a grinding stalemate unlike that war ,the rapid development of technology and its deployment has also likely resulted in changes to military doctrines by defence forces around the world to avoid becoming redundant, Previous large war stocks held by Russia have been largely exhausted requiring importation of such equipment certainly Ukraine has also itself received older equipment that has proved very useful ,I understand the emotional posts on this thread but dont believe its conductive!

 

[crest]

I read the 34 artillery Division is being reactivated. If true it Will be interesting to see how drone defence is handled aswell as how responsive the kill chain is at that level. Beyond that sounds like bad news for wherever it's deployed to for Ukraine, that is a absolutely unholy amount of concentrated firepower

 

[Beltrami2005]

“It becomes illegal when we lose.” Trump, welcome to the forum. (In what dictatorship/dystopia do you live?)

You could read what it was posted about the terminals, here, in November/December, but it seems that you only care about what you want. Keep your course steady in your fairy tale.

I live in reality. Evrything that makes one win a war, is allowed.

Rules based order is over, and we are back at how it has been since millenia.

Also your own link says im right. Oil income is down by 50%. Russer counters this by raising taxes and higher interest rates. Thats good, whatever hurts the average russian, hurts russia. I still dont understand why you believe it is in Europes interest that russias oil industry isnt hit.

 

[rsemmes]

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=49.70663973377891%2C37.69275591775347&z=12

A few days ago I noticed the eastern tentacle, today we have one going round Podoli; Moskovka is completely clear, on the other hand. I guess some Russian teams are somewhere in the area or passed through the area, recon for a possible consolidation or expansion towards the Russian lines to the NE.

 

[rsemmes]

@resemmes I'm not a student of history although I've been around long enough to have witnessed some of it. I do agree with you that in regards to this thread there is hypocrisy, on both sides. I've noticed if you will that while you take great pains to show any western hypocrisy, the same transparency is in rather short supply in regards Russian actions. Perhaps that's not your intent. As many have pointed out wars tend to devolve into many grey areas, that's not news to anyone. I find it disappointing that we can't learn from our history. The part of your post that I highlighted,
"Do I claim to be neutral, do I claim to be free of bias? I do claim that I cannot delete from my memory what I have read, all the crimes committed by the western democracies". illustrates that you indeed have a bias against western democracies. You seem to have more than a passing interest in history. Perhaps you could impart some of that history perspective from both sides much like @Feanor does.

That would be an overkill.

You have probably noticed that most people here point their fingers at Russia. My "bias" is a counter-bias, if you like.
For example, about NATO not being a threat, what the USSR did against Ukraine (including Crimea as a present) and the conquest of that lovely Ukraine:
In a documentary about the 50s, they were talking about CIA SMO (infiltration) carried out against the USSR using Ukrainian terrorists/volunteers/pawns (which word?). Russian politicians/military are supposed to disregard that, but Ukrainians must remember every act committed by the USSR against Ukraine?
Pointing the finger at one Russian action without providing a very similar action by the west is offering a biased perspective of events. Not to mention comments like: "Evrything that makes one win a war, is allowed." Hitler lost, Stalin won. Would you care to provide him with some conclusion?
There is also the possibility that I don't have as much wisdom/culture as he () does.

 

[Beltrami2005]

That would be an overkill.

You have probably noticed that most people here point their fingers at Russia. My "bias" is a counter-bias, if you like.
For example, about NATO not being a threat, what the USSR did against Ukraine (including Crimea as a present) and the conquest of that lovely Ukraine:
In a documentary about the 50s, they were talking about CIA SMO (infiltration) carried out against the USSR using Ukrainian terrorists/volunteers/pawns (which word?). Russian politicians/military are supposed to disregard that, but Ukrainians must remember every act committed by the USSR against Ukraine?
Pointing the finger at one Russian action without providing a very similar action by the west is offering a biased perspective of events. Not to mention comments like: "Evrything that makes one win a war, is allowed." Hitler lost, Stalin won. Would you care to provide him with some conclusion?
There is also the possibility that I don't have as much wisdom/culture as he () does.

Well yesterday another tanker got blown up. Looks like it is indeed allowed. Why shouldnt it and what do you say is the alternative? Focus strikes more on the pipelines? Would love to hear your opinion regarding that, fact is, that russias oil infrastructure is down by 50%. Set to be down to 55% by end of february. Targeting tankers is the easiest way to achieve that.

Remember, a weak russia is a good russia. Makes it easier for Europe to keep it at bay.

 

[swerve]

Don't you read the news? There's no need, Trump has offered China all the Venezuelan oil it wants.

But he doesn't (yet) control Venezuelan oil, & AFAIK China's refineries aren't set up to refine it. It's very heavy, & needs the right type of refinery.