The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[vikingatespam]

Except the two aren't the same. Ukraine doesn't want to fight.

UKR has a army, command system, and drafting mechanisms in place that are all functioning. They may not be running optimally, but they still all work. Together, they offer resistance to RU goals. That is literally the definition of wanting to fight. Even the US had AWOL and draft dodgers in WW2, and I think we can all agree that doesnt mean the US didnt "want" to fight at the time.

I suppose we could quibble on the use of "want" as no one "wants" to sit in a trench under artillery fire, while being hunted by FPV drones, but I think you see my point.

If UKR did not want to fight (again, collectively speaking), we would see something along the lines of the French or Russian army mutinies of 1917, or maybe widespread public discontent as expressed in the US during Vietnam.

Don't confuse the government for the country.

I cant poll every single Ukrainian citizen. All I can do is judge the apparent lack of evidence of a lack of will to fight, as per my point above.

He's very clearly referring to the fact that Ukraine is striking civilian shipping that belongs to neutral countries. Whether they're Chinese specifically or not is unimportant. Either you're allowed to strike countries not in the fight or you're not. Ukraine has opened a problematic and dangerous door with this behavior. Depending on how exactly one looks at it, it amounts to state-sanctioned piracy, or even terrorism. And of course Russia has already mirrored their response.

It is a dangerous response to strike shadow fleet vessels, escalatory in nature. Is it warranted ? Scchhhmmmmaybeee ? I suspect this isnt going to be used widely, and is more of an attempt to inflate insurance costs on the shadow fleet so much, that they can no longer commercially operate. Admittedly , Im on the fence on this one.

 

[Aleks.ov]

^ I think are way off, my man. The US does not give two shits about what Russia thinks about Venezuela. And you certainly overestimate the acceptable cost and the Geran UAV capabilities, to a laughable degree in the context you present it in.

I suppose the Houthis, with their primitive drones and the US flight from the Red Sea, have proven the opposite. But we're getting off topic.

 

[personaldesas]

I suppose the Houthis, with their primitive drones and the US flight from the Red Sea, have proven the opposite. But we're getting off topic.

So you’re saying Russia might at any time pull a significant number of Shaheds out of Ukraine, somehow project them roughly 13,000 km across the Pacific, and meaningfully intervene in Venezuela, on the basis that the Houthis managed to harass a shipping lane located right next to their own territory. Is that the claim?

 

[swerve]

Ukraine attacks Russian ‘shadow’ tanker off Libyan coast

Reportedly critical drone strike is first in Mediterranean since full-scale invasion began as maritime conflict grows

www.theguardian.com

'A source in the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said Friday’s attack was a “new, unprecedented special operation”.'
Great! Let's all do "unprecedented special operations".
“The enemy must understand that Ukraine will not stop, and will strike them anywhere in the world, wherever they may be,”
Then, Russia mustn't stop and hit them "anywhere in the world".
"this is an absolutely legitimate target for the SBU."
UK is providing weapons to Ukraine, UK is an "absolutely legitimate target" for Russia; as every ship and every rail line providing aid to Ukraine is. (I live in UK.)

Different categories.

 

[rsemmes]

Different categories.

Speaking to the online outlet Ukrainska Pravda, a Ukrainian official justified the strike. “This tanker was used to circumvent sanctions and earn money that was used for the war against Ukraine. Therefore, from the point of view of international law and the laws and customs of war, this is an absolutely legitimate target for the SBU. The enemy must understand that Ukraine will not stop and will beat him anywhere in the world, wherever he is.”

According to whom?

 

[Feanor]

UKR has a army, command system, and drafting mechanisms in place that are all functioning. They may not be running optimally, but they still all work. Together, they offer resistance to RU goals. That is literally the definition of wanting to fight.

It literally is not. Wanting to fight, or being willing to fight, refers to the desires of individual citizens. The desire of the Ukrainian government to keep fighting isn't in question.

Even the US had AWOL and draft dodgers in WW2, and I think we can all agree that doesnt mean the US didnt "want" to fight at the time.

Best current estimates put Ukraine at somewhere between 400-500k troops, with ~300k deserters. There are examples of formations that lose over half of personnel in training before they get to the front lines. I think we can all agree the comparison to US AWOL and draft dodgers is at the very least inaccurate and misleading.

I suppose we could quibble on the use of "want" as no one "wants" to sit in a trench under artillery fire, while being hunted by FPV drones, but I think you see my point.

If UKR did not want to fight (again, collectively speaking), we would see something along the lines of the French or Russian army mutinies of 1917, or maybe widespread public discontent as expressed in the US during Vietnam.

We do see widespread public discontent, including people literally getting into fights or even trying to kill TCC personnel in the streets.

I cant poll every single Ukrainian citizen.

That's not how polling works... you do a representative sample utilizing a recognized methodology.

All I can do is judge the apparent lack of evidence of a lack of will to fight, as per my point above.

There is no lack of evidence. There is a lack of willingness to look at it.

Ukrainian Support for War Effort Collapses

New data from Ukraine show the public favors ending the war with Russia through negotiations, as support for fighting until victory has plummeted.

news.gallup.com

It is a dangerous response to strike shadow fleet vessels, escalatory in nature. Is it warranted ? Scchhhmmmmaybeee ? I suspect this isnt going to be used widely, and is more of an attempt to inflate insurance costs on the shadow fleet so much, that they can no longer commercially operate. Admittedly , Im on the fence on this one.

I think it's a desperate and thoroughly illegal move that indicates Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure are getting to a critical point. You'll note that energy ceasefire ideas are being floated at the same time as this happens. I think it's a carrot and stick attempt to get Russia to stop destroying Ukrainian infrastructure.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Sumy area.

Russian forces have opened a new direction in Sumy region, attacking from the east into southern Sumy region, capturing the villages of Grabovskoe and Visokoe. Some reports also have them penetrating into Ryasnoe. This seems to be an opportunistic move, with Ukrainian sources claiming a lacksadaisical attitude among the troops there. On the old Sumy front, Russian forces recaptured Konstantinovka, Varachino, and a number of positions around Andreevka and Alekseevka, reversing many of Ukraine's recent gains here.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1396: Situation on Sumy front: During the last week Russian Army continued retaking positions towards Andriivka & reentered in the northern part of this locality. Meanwhile, in the last 48 hours, Russian forces launched a new offensive in the Krasnopillia district...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1388: Situation on Sumy front: During the last ten days Russian Army regained the initiative & made a series of advances. Russian forces recaptured Kostyantynivka & a series of positions north of Andriivka. In addition, Russian troops recaptured new positions south of...

t.me

Russian drone operations in the Sumy area.

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Russia hits a CV90 IFV in Miropol'ye.

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vk.com

Военный Осведомитель

Уничтожение FPV-дронами шведской БМП CV9040C ВСУ, припрятанной противником в ангаре у села Мирополье Сумской области возле границы с Курской областью. Работа спецназ "АХМАТ" МО РФ. Видео: @lost_armour Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Some bizarre footage, allegedly from Grabovskoe, with people in civilian clothes making gestures towards a Russian drone, and then firing on it with an AK. They might Ukrainian service members in plain clothes, or civilians with weapons.

Схемы и карты военных действий

вирусное видео про железный щит укровоенов на нашей границе в деревне Грабовское. Немного сократил, оставил главное-)))

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Украинские солдаты сначала показывали неприличные жесты российским операторам дронов возле села Грабовское Сумской области, а потом сдались в плен штурмовикам ВС РФ, зашедшим в село. Пришлось извиняться. Внешний вид и обмундирование у солдат противника были по неизвестным доселе стандартам...

t.me

Allegedly Ukrainian POWs taken in Grabovskoe.

Новости СВО и Мира ©

Сумская область. Взятые в плен боевики всу в нп. Грабовское, который наши воины освободили.

t.me

Russia hit the villages of Barilo and Balitsa, Sumy region, targeting allegedly Ukrainian staging areas.

Военный Осведомитель

Удары дронами-камикадзе «Герань-2» по пунктам временной дислокации бригад ТРО в населённых пунктах Барило и Балица Сумской области. Кадры: @The_Wrong_Side Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Kharkov area.

Russian forces have moved southward out of Volchansk, taking chunks of fields, and gaining ground taking all of Volch'ya. Russian forces have also pushed eastward into Volchanskie Hutory. Russian forces have also taken the village of Liman and started the fight for Prilipka.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1398: Situation north of Kharkov: During the last five days Russian army took full control over Vilcha after the capture of the southwestern part of the locality. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1393: Situation north of Kharkov: During the last three days Russian Army continued advancing at the southern & southeastern outskirts of Vovchansk town & made new advances at the southeastern part of Vilcha (About 70% of the locality is now under Russian control)...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1390: Situation north of Kharkov: During the last six days Russian Army managed to capture the first houses of the locality of Vovchanski Khutory. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1387: Situation north of Kharkov: During the last three days Russian Army took full control over the locality of Lyman. Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=50.26828462732333%2C36.89168096545334&z=12 ]

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1384: Situation north of Kharkov: During the last two days Russian Army took control over most of the locality of Lyman & the central part of Vilcha (following an advance from the railway). In addition, after the capture of Vovchansk Russian forces began the assault to...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1382: Situation north of Kharkov: During the last four days Russian Army continued advancing slowly at the locality of Lyman. Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=50.26089714173022%2C36.899257235159936&z=13 ]

t.me

Russian drone drops on some sort of infantry, allegedly a Ukrainian element trying to enter Belgorod region.

Colonelcassad

ВСУ попытались проникнуть в Белгородскую область. Диверсанты были ликвидированы в 6 км от границы По данным SHOT, украинская ДРГ в составе трёх человек пыталась провести разведку у РФ в районе села Старица Харьковской области — направлялись в сторону села Муром. Предварительно, перемещения...

t.me

Russian TOS strikes on Volchanskie Hutory. Allegedly Ukraine's 157th Mech Bde is active in the area.

Colonelcassad

Бои за Волчанские Хутора Тяжелые огнеметные системы Северян накрывают позиции 157 омбр ВСУ в Волчанских Хуторах, расчищая путь штурмовым подразделениям. @warriorofnorth

t.me

Russia hits a Ukrainian crossing, allegedly Pechenegi area. Reportedly a Tornado-S was used.

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Осведомитель

Кадры объективного контроля поражения переправы противника в районе н.п. Печенеги Харьковской области. Осведомитель

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Объективный контроль удара РСЗО «Торнадо-С» по плотине Печенежского водохранилища в Харьковской области. Кадры: @The_Wrong_Side Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Russian strike on Ukrainian vehicles, allegedly they include Grads used to hit Belgorod.

Colonelcassad

Точный удар РСЗО "Торнадо-С" по скоплению техники ВСУ Тяжелая реактивная артиллерия Северян накрыла скопление техники ВСУ. Среди них была РСЗО "Град", с помощью которой враг обстреливал Белгород. @warriorofnorth

t.me

Ukrainian forces confirm the loss of an Su-27, allegedly in the Kharkov area, from the 39th Aviation Bde. Some sources claim it was downed by a Russian Su-35S.

Осведомитель

На Харьковском направлении сегодня днем был сбит Су-27 из состава 39-й бригады тактической авиации ВСУ. Ресурсы противника сообщают, что в результате был ликвидирован подполковник Евгений Иванов, который занимал должность старшего штурмана бригады. Украинские каналы пишут, что Су-27 не смог...

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Украинский Су-27 потерян в ходе выполнения задания, пишут Воздушные силы Украины. В результате погиб старший штурман 39-й бригады тактической авиации подполковник Иванов Евгений Витальевич, судьба второго летчика неизвестна. Судя по намекам противника, борт был сбит в Харьковской области...

t.me

AMK Mapping

The Ukrainian Airforce announced that yesterday afternoon, a Ukrainian Su-27 pilot from the 39th Tactical Aviation Brigade was killed in the eastern direction. It seems that the aircraft shot down northwest of Malotaranivka, Donetsk Oblast, after a Russian Su-35 launched an R-37 air-to-air...

t.me

Kupyansk area.

Ukrainian forces have recaptured almost all of western Kupyansk in a series of counter-attacks. While a substantial grey zone with some Russian control still exists, it's likely those forces are effectively cut off. In Eastern Kupyansk Russian forces have gained most of the country-side north-east of town, about half of Kucherovka, and briefly took northern Petropavlovka, but were pushed out again. Russian forces also continue to inch forward around Ambarnoe and Dvurechenskoe.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1396: Situation on northeastern front: The situation of Russian army in the western part of Kupiansk continues to deteriorate. Ukrainian army advanced again in the central district, regaining control of the local museum and new high-rise buildings across Zakhysnykiv...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1395: Situation on northeastern front: Over the past two days, Ukrainian army recaptured the Spartak stadium and advanced eastward from the hospital, entering schools No. 1 and No. 4, the medical school, and the first adjacent high-rise buildings. In addition...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1393: Situation on northeastern front: During the last two days the Ukrainian army has continued to advance in the western part of Kupiansk city, regaining control of the Gymnasium and the Metiz plant until reaching the bridge adjacent to the bus station. At the same...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1391: Situation on northeastern front: During the last two days, Ukrainian army continued to regain positions in the western districts of the city of Kupiansk. In the northwest, part of Michurina Street was recaptured up to the Rescue-diving station, and Sportyvnyi...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1390: Situation on northeastern front: While fighting continues in the western part of Kupiansk on the eastern shore of the Oskil River, Russian army has secured the fish farms and continues to advance towards the northern outskirts of Kucherivka. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Meanwhile, in the north-west of the city, Ukrainian forces were unable to consolidate their positions in some wooded areas, including the gas compressor station west of Holubivka. This has created a large grey area where fighting between the two sides continues. On the other hand, in the east...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Currently, 40% of the city of Kupiansk is once again under Ukrainian control, a percentage that could increase following the start of Russian withdrawal from the western part of the city. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1387: Situation on northeastern front: After two weeks of positional battles, Russian army resumed its advances at Dvorichna axis: the buffer zone in Dvorichanske was expanded, while the outskirts of the village of Ambarne were reached from the north and east. At...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1384: Situation on northeastern front: The porosity of the front continues to deteriorate the situation of Russian army in the western districts of Kupiansk city. Ukrainian army advanced beyond Zakhysnykiv Kupianska Street and reached Michurina Street, adjacent to the...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1383: Situation on northeastern front: During the last two days Ukrainian Army continued advancing at the western districts of Kupiansk: In the northwest, fighting reached Zakhysnykiv Kupianska Street and the garage area. In the west, Zarichna, Moskovska, and part of...

t.me

Ukrainian T-64BV gets hit near Kupyansk.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

Враг бросает танки и пехоту в кровавый контрнаступ на Купянск ▪️Со стороны Купянска-Узлового и с других направлений ВСУ пытаются прорваться к Купянску, но их уничтожает армия России. ▪️На кадрах уничтожение одного из танков ВСУ силами 68 дивизии при попытке атаки из Купянска-Узлового. Подобных...

t.me

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Russian drone strikes on Ukrainian infantry in the center of Kupyansk.

Военный Осведомитель

Удары FPV-дронов и дронов-ждунов по пехоте ВСУ в центре Купянска у железнодорожного моста. Координаты: 49.709212, 37.609647 Противник продолжает предпринимать попытки по закреплению не только в северной и южной части города, но и в его центре. Достоверная же зона контроля в городе до сих пор...

t.me

Russian drone strike on a Ukrainian UGV, allegedly Kupyansk area.

Colonelcassad

Купянское направление Уничтожение роботехнического комплекса противника. @Kupyansk_Today

t.me

In Kupyansk-Uzlovoy it appears Ukraine set up a vehicle maintenance station in a large pipe of some sort. Russian drones found it and target the vehicles parked there. At least 4 are seen.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

Операция «Труба» у Купянска: ВСУ для контрнаступа спрятали НАТОвскую бронетехнику в тоннеле ▪️Наши разведчики обнаружили в Купянске-Узловом целую бронегруппу на НАТОвских бронемашинах, которые проходили ремонт и усиление конструкций для защиты от дронов. ▪️После обнаружения вражеские...

t.me

Russian strikes on Glushkovka, Kupyansk area.

Colonelcassad

Нанесение удара ФАБами-250 по ПВД ВСУ в н.п. Глушковка (недалеко от Купянска). @The_Wrong_Side

t.me

A Russian strike on a crossing near Kuyansk misses the new improvised crossing, hitting the old bridge that was destroyed back in '22.

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Осведомитель

Касаемо попытки авиаудара по украинской переправе в районе Купянска. Есть версия, что всё же удар был точным, однако из-за, мягко говоря, некорректных данных разведки/целеуказания, удар был нанесён по координатам уничтоженного еще в 22-м году ж/д моста. Осведомитель

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

И так сойдет. Российский FPV-ждун случайно заснял прилет трех ФАБ-500 с УМПК по уже давно разрушенному ж/д мосту (зачем-то) через Оскол, вместо актуальной переправы, которую дрон и контролировал. Видео: @The_Wrong_Side Такое ощущение, что кто-то просто вбил координаты уже не существующего...

t.me

There was a recent video put out with Zelenski posing in front of the Kupyansk city sign but the video is clearly old, the sign doesn't look the way it does. And while the area of the sign is under Ukrainian control, Russian drones are all over the area, making it basically impossible to film that kind of video there.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

В ВСУ сами невольно подтвердили фейковость «селфи» Зеленского у стелы Купянска ▪️Украинские военные решили съездить к «знаковому месту» — той самой стеле на въезде в Купянск, где ранее якобы отметился Зеленский. ▪️Но реальность оказалась иной: уже через несколько секунд после прибытия по машине...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

Русский дрон прилетел к стеле Купянска, где якобы снимался Зеленский, разоблачив шоу «Квартала 95» ▪️Оператор дрона КВН прилетел и снял стелу в 1 км от Купянска на улице Харьковской, на фоне которой в пятницу якобы делал селфи Зеленский. ❗️Как мы и предполагали, видео с Зеленским видимо или...

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

По стеле возле Купянска, где снимал видео Зеленский, теперь непрерывно прилетают российские FPV-дроны. Пара украинских женщин военных поснимали возле нее видео и едва не стали целью одного из беспилотников. Можно заметить, что подъезды к стеле контролируются пехотой противника, но она сама и ее...

t.me

Colonelcassad

Наш дрон прилетел к стеле Купянска, где якобы снимался кокаиновый фюрер Видео видимо или старое или с подложным фоном. На свежих кадрах с БПЛА на стеле нет несколько букв в слове "Купянск", которые есть на ролике. Также разодрана и лежит на земле антидроновая сетка над дорогой, о чем ранее...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

Зеленский показал видео «из Купянска»: где оно снято на самом деле? ▪️Зеленский в целях пропаганды показал видео у стелы Купянска, расположенной на некотором отдалении от города. ▪️Предварительно на видео бункерного наркофюрера все же сделан видеофон - так как район Купянска буквально кишит...

t.me

Oskol front.

In the Boguslav area Ukrainian forces have pushed Russian forces back from the village. In response Russian forces have launched a new push on Novoplatonovka, cutting the road south. Russian forces have secured the last piece of the western shore of the Zherebets river, likely due to a Ukrainian withdrawal.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1392: Situation on Borivska front: During the last two days Russian Army continued the capture of the trenches east of Novoplatonivka reaching the outskirts of this locality & cutting the road to Bohuslavka. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1390: Situation on Borivska front: In addition to the advance north and the failed advance south (Ukrainian army recaptured the lost area) of Bohuslavka during the last week, Russian army continued to advance west of Borivska Andriivka, taking control of a series of...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1383: Situation on Luhansk front: Since the beginning of December Russian Army captured a series of positions west of Novovodyane thus securing completely the western shore of Zherebets River for the first time since September 2022. Map: [...

t.me

 

[Feanor]

Krasniy Liman area.

Russian forces are pushing south-west in the woods, gaining ground in and around the villages of Dibrova and Ozernoe. West of Liman Russian forces push deeper towards the river. Russian forces have also gained ground towards Koroviy Yar.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1393: Situation north of Donetsk: During the last four days Russian Army made new advances at Sviati Hory National Park & the tourist resort of Velykyi Bakai Lake as well as the northern part of Ozerne. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1390: Situation north of Donetsk & Lyman fronts: During the last week Russian Army restarted the advances towards Korovii Yar & captured a series of positions south of this locality. In addition, Russian forces is trying to reach Oleksandrivka from the forest area...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1386: Situation north of Donetsk & Lyman fronts: During the last six days Russian Army began a new assault to the locality of Yarova (this time from the west) & managed to enter in the first houses from this direction. Map: [...

t.me

Reportedly Kramatorsk is left without power after recent Russian strikes.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

Краматорск погрузился во тьму ▪️Украинские ресурсы отмечают, что город обесточен полностью. ▪️Местная администрация заявила о прекращении работы электротранспорта, на маршруты вместо троллейбусов вышли автобусы. ⚠️Подписаться на RV: MAX | t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Dambiev

Вчерашние ночные прилеты по объектам противника в районе Краматорска.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Краматорск перешёл на темную сторону. Начинается подготовка к возвращению территории законным владельцам.

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Момент удара ФАБ с УМПК по объекту энергетики в Краматорске. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Russian Grad-1 operations, from the 83rd Arty Rgt, in the Krasniy Liman area.

Военный Осведомитель

Боевая работа расчета РСЗО 9К55 «Град-1» 83-го самоходного артиллерийского полка 25-й общевойсковой армии группировки войск «Запад» на Краснолиманском направлении. Часть 2. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Боевая работа расчета РСЗО 9К55 «Град-1» 83-го самоходного артиллерийского полка 25-й общевойсковой армии группировки войск «Запад» на Краснолиманском направлении. Часть 1. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

A view of Krasniy Liman covered in fiber-optic cables from drones.

Colonelcassad

Красный Лиман весь в оптоволокне. Провели высокоскоростной интернет в каждый дом.

t.me

Осведомитель

Тем временем в преддверии Нового года Лиман щедро украшается оптоволоконными нитями FPV-дронов. Осведомитель

t.me

Ukrainian drone-netting on the Izyum-Slavyansk road.

Военный Осведомитель

А это уже многокилометровые антидроновые коридоры противника на трассе Изюм-Славянск. На данный момент данная трасса является важнейшей для снабжения гарнизонов ВСУ в Славянске и Краматорске. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Seversk area.

Russian forces have taken all of Seversk and are pushing west out of it. They've taken the hills west of it and are trying to advance further. Russian forces also continue to gain ground in Zakotnoe, and around Dronovka. Svyato-pokrovskoe has fallen, and Russia has also taken the hills north of it as well as the entire west shore of the Bakhmutka river including the Ukrainian strong points on the high ground there.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1397: Situation on Siversk front: During the weekend Ukrainian army has completely withdrawn from the western bank of the Bakhmutovka River. This allowed Russian army to completely secure the localities of Zvanivka and Kuzmynivka by capturing the western hills and...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1396: Situation on Siversk front: After six days of securing operations Russian Army restarted the advances west of Siversk town taking control over new positions at the eastern part of Zakitne & the hills north of Sviato-Pokrovske, which was completely taken as...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1390: Situation on Siversk front: Ukrainian army continued to retreat from the western heights of Siversk, allowing Russian army to capture a significant number of positions, trenches and the chalk quarry. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1389: Situation north of Donetsk & Siversk fronts: During the last four days Russian army continued to advance in Sviati Hory National Park and took new trench systems until it reached the tourist resort of Velykyi Bakai Lake, took the northern and eastern parts of...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1387: Situation on Siversk front: Russian army took control of the last neighbourhoods west of Siversk while combing operations are already underway in the town. This brings an end to a prolonged battle for one of the most important strongholds of Ukrainian army in...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1386: Situation on Siversk front: Russian Army continued advancing in Siversk crossing the river Bakhmutovka until the street of Zoya Kosmodemyanskaya. About 90% of Siversk town is now under Russian control. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1385: Situation north of Donetsk & Siversk front: Russian Army began the assault to the locality of Zakitne & captured the first houses at the eastern part, as well as new positions at the southern shore of Donets river. In addition, Russian forces captured a series of...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1384: Situation north of Donetsk & Siversk fronts: During the last two days Russian Army continued advancing south & southwest of Platonivka cutting the T-05-13 road & reaching the outskirts of Zakitne. In addition, Russian forces secured new positions at the northern...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1382: Situation on Siversk front: Russian Army took control over the entire northeastern districts & the hospital of Siversk town moving the combats beyond the ruins of the Seversky dolomite plant. In addition, Russian forces made new advances in the northern hills and...

t.me

An aerial shot of the ruins of Seversk. Reportedly 300-400 civilians were still in the town.

AMK Mapping

Deepstate published satellite imagery showing the ruins of eastern Siversk. Around 300-400 civilians remained in the city for the nearly 4 years of fighting.

t.me

Russian forces in Seversk.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Colonelcassad

Русские флаги над Северском Ждем официального подтверждения. Славянск и Краматорск - приготовиться к возвращению в родную гавань. @sashakots

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Фронт под Северском стоял натурально годами и казалось, что так продолжаться может еще очень долго. Однако, устойчивый укрепрайон ВСУ развалился практически за месяц буквально на наших глазах - штурмовики с российскими флагами фиксируются уже и на северо-западных окраинах Северска, заявляя тем...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ Бойцы 6-й казачьей бригады подняли флаг в Северске, зачистка города завершается Информация о полном освобождении города пока не соответствует действительности, но город действительно почти зачищен, остаётся пара кварталов. ⚠️Подписаться на RV: MAX | t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Druzhkovka area.

I'm adding this to cover all the meaningful movement happening north-west of Chasov Yar towards Druzhkovka. Russian forces have taken chunks of countryside around Pazeno and Vasyukovka, including the hills. Pazeno is fully under Russian control. Ukrainian positions by the ponds south of Vasykovka are threatened with encirclement. Russian forces have also gained some ground north of Mayskoe. Westward Russian forces have taken half of Bondarnoe, and some fields south of it. Closer to the canal Russian forces have taken the rest of Orekhovo-Vasilevka, and have approached Min'kovka. They've also taken fields north-east and south-west of there.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1397: Situation on Soledar front: After two weeks of positional battles Russian Army managed to capture completely the locality of Orikhovo-Vasylivka (disputed since 2023) and the adjacent trench systems thus reaching the outskirts of Minkivka. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1396: Situation on Soledar front: During the last three days Russian Army began the assault to the locality of Bondarne & began securing the western shore of Bakhmutovka River with the capture of the trenches adjacent to Kuzmynivka village. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1393: Situation on Soledar front: During the last week Russian Army managed to secure the trench systems located between Pazeno & Vasyukivka & the hill north of Fedorivka & west of Pereizne. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1391: Situation on Konstantinovskaya & Chasov Yar fronts: Russian Army managed to capture the first trench systems south & east of Markove. Clashes with Ukrainian Army continue north of Maiske. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1390: Situation on Soledar front: During the last four days Russian Army continued advancing southwest of Vasyukivka in what seems to be an encircling movement around Ukrainian army's defences in the ponds area. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1389: Situation on Konstantinovskaya & Chasov Yar fronts: During the last six days Russian DRG's managed to create small breaks in Ukrainian army positions north Maiske which allowed to expand the operations to the outskirts of Markove & Fedorivka. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1386: Situation on Soledar front: During the last ten days Russian Army took full control over Pazeno & continued the capture of the trenches between this village & Vasyukivka (where some advances southwards were also made). Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1384: Situation on Soledar front: During the last week Russian Army managed to advance inside Orikhovo-Vasylivka after one month of positional battles, which allowed the capture of the central part & the adjacent trenches. Map: [...

t.me

Russian drones target 3 Ukrainian tanks in Druzhkovka.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian Grad strikes near Druzhkovka.

Dambiev

Русские "Грады" накрывают позиции боевиков киевского режима в районе Дружковки.

t.me

Russia hit Druzhkovka, targets include two gas stations and some fuel trucks.

Схемы и карты военных действий

В соседней Дружковка сегодня выбито две АЗС

t.me

AMK Mapping

Consequences of a Russian KAB glide-bomb strike on the city of Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast. I find it crazy that civilian truck drivers are still doing their jobs less than 10 km from the frontline. The whole of Ukrainian-controlled Donetsk Oblast should've been evacuated months ago.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Дружковка - на окраинах что то мощно прилетает

t.me

Konstantinovka.

Ukrainian forces have countered-attacked from the north into the dachas east of Konstantinovka, and have reached the outskirts of Predtechnoe. This is pattern, with Ukrainian sources frequently counter-attacking from this direction. It's likely this pattern will only break when Russian forces have secured the north-eastern approaches to town. South of the town, north of the reservoir, Russian forces continue to gain ground in the fields. Inside Konstantinovka, Russian forces continue to inch forward, grabbing a few more streets and buildings towards the center of town. From the north-east Russian forces have approached Verolyubovka along a wide front, capturing fields east of it and creating a large grey zone.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1397: Situation on Ilyinovskaya front: During the last week Russian Army secured new parts north of Kleban-Byk Reservoir, thus increasing the buffer zone around Ivanopillya. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1396: Situation on Konstantinovskaya front: During the last ten days Ukrainian Army managed to eliminate Russian DRG's at the southeastern outskirts of Kostiantynivka city & continued securing the previously retaken areas. As a result the “Metallurg” dachas was...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1389: Situation on Ilyinovskaya front: During the last week Russian army secured completely the locality of Ivanopillya & crossed the railway towards Berestok taking control over a series of trenches in this direction, in order to surpass Ukrainian Army positions north...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1386: Situation on Konstantinovskaya front: Russian Army continued advancing at the southern part of Kostiantynivka city taking control over new parts of Stara Santurynivka & Stare Selyshche districts & entered in the territory of Kostyantynivka Railway Station. On the...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1383: Situation on Konstantinovskaya front: Simultaneously with the advance west of Chasiv Yar, Russian Army managed to secure all positions along and south of the road to Kostiantynivka. In addition, Russian forces managed to take a series of positions in the wooded...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1383: Situation on Chasov Yar front: During the last five days Russian Army took control over a series of positions west & southwest of Maiske. As a result the battle for Virolyubivka began, with the infiltration of the first DRG's in the eastern & central part of the...

t.me

Russia hits a Ukrainian Grad west of Konstantinovka.

Colonelcassad

Разведчики Южной группировки выявили пункты временной дислокации противника в н.п. Ильиновка, после чего по ним был нанесён точный огневой удар из БМ-21 «Град» — позиции противника поражены. @SouthernRepublic

t.me

More Ukrainian footage out of Konstantinovka.

Colonelcassad

Константиновка - обстановка. Слышно стрелковые бои в городе. / Видео с вражеских ресурсов/ @rezervsvo

t.me

A Ukrainian soldier talks about stubborn civilians refusing to evacuate in Konstantinovka, a town currently contested.

Colonelcassad

ВСУшник ноет. что жители отказываются эвакуироваться из города, который штурмует российская армия. Причина вполне понятная - часть населения ждет освобождения и окончания украинской оккупации. Нацисты это знают, поэтому и в Константиновке наверняка будут найдены следы военных преступлений ВСУ и...

t.me

 

[Feanor]

Pokrovsk area.

North of Mirnograd Russian forces have inched forward near Sofievka and are slowly retaking pieces of the old salient. They've retaken Dorozhnoe and are contesting Ivanovka and Novoe Shakhovo. West of Pokrovsk Russian forces gained ground in Novopodgorodnoe, but lost the mine complex north of Udachnoe. Inside Mirnograd, the pocket has collapsed completely, Russian forces are sweeping the ruins with some resistance still occurring. It's not long now until the final flag raising in Mirnograd. North of Pokrovsk Russian forces have advanced in Grishino, but it's slow going. Ukraine has meanwhile has counter-attacked and recaptured one of the pig farms north of Pokrovsk.

One thing is how long it's taken to mop up the pocket. Despite being relatively small, and not that many troops being encircled, it's taken weeks to clear the Ukrainian forces encircled in Mirnograd. I think this is significant. It's likely Russia will attempt to encircle Ukrainian forces in the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk area and how long they can tie down Russian forces matters.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1396: Situation on Mirnograd & Pokrovsk fronts: Russian army took complete control of the central, Veselyi, and Brianka districts in the northern part of Myrnohrad. Approximately 95% of the city is now under Russian control. In addition, Russian forces took control of...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1395: Situation on Udachnenskaya & Mezhevskaya fronts: During the last days Ukrainian Army managed to retake the northern part of Krasnoarmeyskaya-Zapadnaya No. 1 & is trying to recapture the rest of the mine. On the other hand, as a result of the positional battles...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1395: Situation on Shakhovskoy front: After three weeks of combats Russian army took full control over the rest of Sofiivka locality. Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=48.446229697205894%2C37.35749235540106&z=12 ]

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1394: Situation on Mirnograd & Pokrovsk fronts: During the last 32 hours, Russian army has penetrated the last districts in the north of Myrnohrad, where it is fighting against the last pockets of resistance from Ukrainian army in the city. In addition, after two weeks...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1393: Situation on Mirnograd & Pokrovsk fronts: Russian army completely captured the suburb of Svitle and the district of Voenved from the north-west of Myrnohrad, while from the southern axis they have taken all positions south of Likarnianyi Street and have begun...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1392: Situation on Mirnograd & Pokrovsk fronts: During the last two days Ukrainian army managed to recapture one of the pig farms north of Pokrovsk city. On the other hand, Russian Army continued the assault of Brianka district at the northern part of Myrnohrad & began...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1392: Situation on Shakhovskoy front: During the last six days Russian Army recaptured some positions southeast of Chernyavskiy & adjacent to the clay quarry. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1390: Situation on Mirnograd & Pokrovsk fronts: During the last 48 hours, Russian army continued to reduce Ukrainian army's pocket in the northern part of Myrnohrad. Forces from the west and centre took control of the southern part of the Brianka district. Meanwhile...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1388: Situation on Mirnograd & Pokrovsk fronts: Russian army continued to advance in the northern part of Myrnohrad, where troops from the northern and central axes converged. As a result, the besieged Ukrainian army was once again divided, with several dozen soldiers...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1387: Situation on Mirnograd & Pokrovsk fronts: Russian Army took full control over the last plantations between the cities of Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1386: Situation on Mirnograd & Pokrovsk fronts: Russian army broke through Ukrainian army's last defences north of the central area of Myrnohrad, advancing deep along Soborna Street and practically taking over neighbourhood 40. From the north, Russian troops advanced...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1386: Situation on Shakhovskoy front: During the last three days Russian Army entered in the first houses of Sukhetske while battles with Ukrainian Army continued at the southwestern dachas of Zatyshok. In addition, Russian forces began advancing along the railway...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1385: Situation on Mirnograd & Pokrovsk fronts: Russian army continued to advance in the northern part of Myrnohrad: the Damanskyi district is practically secured, with sporadic fighting along Bielinskoho Street, while to the south, the trench leading to the terrikon...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1384: Situation on Mirnograd & Pokrovsk fronts: Simultaneously with the advances from the south Russian Army continued the advances west of Myrnohrad city. The suburb of Svitle was practically captured as well as the Stepnoye Cemetery & the Bus depot station. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1383: Situation on Mirnograd & Pokrovsk fronts: During the last 48 hours Russian Army took full control over the central part of Myrnohrad city. In addition, during the last two weeks Russian forces continued making small advances at the western part of Rodynske town...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1383: Situation on Shakhovskoy front: During the last three days Russian army took full control over the village of Dorozhnye & some trenches west of it & reentered in Ivanivka. Map: [...

t.me

Russian strikes on Novopodgorodnoe.

Colonelcassad

Удар по позициям ВСУ в Новоподгороднем. @belarusian_silovik

t.me

Russian drone strike on a Ukrainian UGV loaded with supplies, allegedly near Mirnograd.

Colonelcassad

НРТК ВСУ со снабжением уничтожен в окрестностях Димитрова Расчет FPV-дронов противотанкого дивизиона 238 гвардейской артиллерийской бригады уничтожил наземный робототехнический комплекс ВСУ, который пытался доставить снабжение окружённым подразделениям украинских оккупационных сил в...

t.me

Russian bomb and Tornado-S strikes on Mirnograd.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Военный Осведомитель

Удар 300-мм корректируемого боеприпаса РСЗО "Торнадо-С" по зданию в Мирнограде, куда перед этим зашла группа противника. Видео: @z_arhiv Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Осведомитель

Кадры объективного контроля очередного удара ФАБ-1500/3000 с УМПК по ПВД противника в высотке Мирнограда. Осведомитель

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Очередной ФАБ-3000 по расположению ВСУ в Мирнограде. Видео: @The_Wrong_Side Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Russian Rubicon drone operators down a Ukrainian E300 Skyranger near Pokrovsk. It's unclear if it was being used for some sort of front-line duty, or this is just where they were trying to cross the front line into Russian airspace.

Осведомитель

Еще один перехват украинского БпЛА-камикадзе дальнего радиуса действия на базе легкомоторного самолёта E-300 «SkyRanger» оператором зенитного FPV-дрона из состава центра «Рубикон», на этот раз дрон был сбит в районе Покровска. Осведомитель

t.me

A video dissecting a recent failed Russian attack towards Grishino with two combined elements. I'm generally not a fan of this channel's delivery, but the content is worth a watch. Note the reason cited for the failure is poor coordination. One element was ready long before the other. This is the exact same thing that led to the failure of Russia's push for Ugledar back in '23. It's interesting that this issue persists.

Russian drone strikes take apart a Ukrainian mech column attempting to counter-attack back into Pokrovsk. Some sources connect this to the 425th Skala Assault Rgt.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

⚔️Враг бросил колонну НАТОвской техники полка "Скала" на прорыв в Покровск ▪️Наступая с северо-запада колонна боевой техники, в том числе танков Abrams, смогла доехать до стелы у въезда со стороны Гришино, где раньше после высадки с вертолетов UH-60 Black Hawk был уничтожен спецназ ГУР Украины...

t.me

Осведомитель

Кадры наката механизированной колонны 425-го ОШП «Скала» на промышленную зону Покровска на севере города. В целом события повторяют сценарий той самой знаменитой операции ГУР Украины, в ходе которой десант с двух UH-60 был высажен на забой под операторов ГВ «Центр» в районе все этой же стелы у...

t.me

The first new "Australian" Abrams gets taken out near Pokrovsk. It was part of the column destroyed above.

Танки. История и современность. Btvt.info

Про это видео - https://t.me/btvt2019/24149 Сегодня подбили M1A1SA из австралийских поставок. Судя по кадрам машина потеряла ход в результате минного подрыва и была покинута экипажем организовано (см на кадре снятый пулемет на башенке командира). Обратите внимание на кадрах, что, несмотря на...

t.me

bmpd

Похоже, что отъездился первый австралийский M1A1SA Abrams последняя партия которых была передана Украине буквально на днях. Танк был поражен в районе Покровска. Его бывшая принадлежность видна по отдельным сохранившимся пятнам оригинального камуфляжа. Вероятно, что это танк из первой партии...

t.me

Russian TOS-2 fires in the Pokrovsk area.

Colonelcassad

Расчёты ТОС-2 «Тосочка» нанесли мощный термобарический удар по опорному пункту ВСУ на Красноармейском направлении

t.me

A destroyed Leo-1 near Pokrovsk.

Dambiev

Разбитый танк Leopard 1А5 ВСУ на Красноармейском направлении. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Разбитый танк Leopard 1А5 ВСУ на Красноармейском направлении. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

A small pile of destroyed Ukrainian vehicles, Pokrovsk area.

Colonelcassad

Дорога смерти на Красноармейском направлении заваленная разбитой техникой ВСУ. Почти все уничтожено дронами.

t.me

Dambiev

Сгоревшие бронеавтомобили Husky TSV (International MXT-MVA) ВСУ на Красноармейском направлении. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Russian forces shot down an E300 UAV in the Selidovo area, and hauled it away. Apparently it was rigged up to drop 120mm mortar shells and FAB-250/100 bombs.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Осведомитель

Посаженный в районе Селидово украинский БпЛА-камикадзе на базе легкомоторного самолёта E-300 «SkyRanger» с системой сброса для авиабомб ФАБ-100/ФАБ-250М-54 и 120-мм миномётных мин. Осведомитель

t.me

Russian Giatsint-B operations near Pokrovsk.

Военный Осведомитель

Боевая работа расчёта 152-мм буксируемой пушки 2А36 «Гиацинт-Б» группировки войск «Центр» на Красноармейском направлении. Часть 2. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Russian forces setting up a net corridor towards Pokrovsk.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

A look at Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmeysk under Russian control.

Colonelcassad

Фоторепортаж из освобождённого Красноармейска.

t.me

Осведомитель

Прогулка по освобожденному Красноармейску. На первом фото командир штурмовой роты 506-го гвардейского мотострелкового полка Дмитрий Мишин группировки войск "Центр".

t.me

Colonelcassad

Фотографии освобождённого Покровска из которого зелебобики сделали очередную фортецю.

t.me

Dnepropetrovsk axis.

Back and forth fighting continues around Novopavlovka. Ukrainian counter-attacks have regained quite a bit of ground, threatening Russian supply lines into the center of the village. Meanwhile Russia has launched a push along the north shore of the river. Russian forces have also regained some ground in Ivanovka.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1396: Situation on Novopavlovskaya front: During the last two weeks positional battles continued at Ivanivka. As a result Russian army managed to recapture some of the western part of the locality. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1393: Situation on Novopavlovskaya front: Over the last nine days, the Ukrainian army has continued to put pressure on the Russian army's weak supply line to Novopavlivka, whose garrison may fall into an operational encirclement. Consequently, Russian forces have begun...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1384: Situation on Novopavlovskaya front: During the last three days Ukrainian army recaptured the trench system south of Novopavlivka as the operations to cut the Russian supply lines to this locality continue. Map: [...

t.me

Eastern Zaporozhye.

Russian forces have broken through across the Gaychur in several spots. Near where the Yanchur meets the Gaychur they've taken the villages Peschanoe, Gearsimovka, and the southern half of Andreevka. They've also taken a bigger bridgehead by Novoe Zaporozhye, and lastly they're across the river in the north-western part of Gulyaypole. All of Varvarovka, in face the entire right shore of the Gaychur river, is in Russian hands. A Ukrainian counter-attack temporarily created a grey zone in Dobropol'ye, but ultimately Russia recaptured it and even took additional ground on the right shore of the Gaychur. Inside Gulyaypole itself Russian forces have taken everything north of the river, and half of everything south of the river. Ukraine holds the mid-rises in the city center. South of Gulyaypole Russian forces have advanced north and east of Dorozhnyanka. The intent is likely to link up with Russian forces in southern Zaporozhye, and eliminate the salient. Near where the Yanchur meet the Gaychur, Russian forces have taken Ostapovskoe.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1397: Situation on Huliaipole front: Russian Army repelled Ukrainian Army infiltration in Dobropillya & continued the capture of the main Ukrainian defense line at the western shore of Haichur River. Meanwhile, fighting has spread to new areas in the centre of...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1397: Situation on Pokrovskaya front: During the last four days Russian army secured completely the locality of Harasymivka & captured the southern part of Andriivka. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1396: Situation on Huliaipole front: During the last three days Ukrainian Army crossed Haichur River & managed to infiltrate again the central part of Dobropillya where clashes with Russian Army are taking place. Meanwhile, during the last four days Russian forces took...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1394: Situation on Huliaipole front: During the last four days Russian Army continued increasing the bridgehead west of Haichur River & Dobropillya taking control over new trenches along the main Ukrainian Army defense line. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1393: Situation on Pokrovskaya front: Russian Army secured the village of Pischane & is combing the southern part of Harasymivka & the locality of Zarichne. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1392: Situation on Huliaipole front: Russian Army continued advancing at the southern part of Huliaipole town & captured the streets of Pryvitna, Zaporizka, Pivdenna, Hoholia & Vesniana as well as the central cemetery. In addition, Russian forces began advancing east...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1391: Situation on Huliaipole front: During the last two days, Russian army captured completely the northern part of Huliaipole, crossed the Haichur River from new axis, and took control of the trenches on the north-western edge of the city. Meanwhile, Russian forces...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1391: Situation on Pokrovskaya front: During the last four days Russian Army managed to secure the locality of Ostapivske after the capture of a series of trenches west of T-04-01 road & the advances made at the southern part of Andriivka & at the western shore of...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1390: Situation on Huliaipole front: Russian army took complete control of the town of Varvarivka after Ukrainian army withdrew to the other side of the Haichur River. It is on this bank that Russian forces began crossing over the last five days from two axes: one...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1389: Situation on Huliaipole front: Russian Army took control over the streets of Dachna & Berehova at the northern part of Huliaipole. Meanwhile, from the east Russian troops reached Haharina street & approached to the Central Cemetery. In addition, during the last...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1388: Situation on Huliaipole front: Simultaneously with the capture of Naberezhna street Russian Army took control over the trenches around the Wastewater treatment plant which allowed troops to reach the streets of Dachna & Tardova at the northwestern edge of...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1387: Situation on Huliaipole front: During the last five days Russian Army took control over most of the street of Naberezhna & crossed Haichur river from this axis reaching the first factories buildings & the outskirts of the hospital. In addition, Russian forces...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1387: Situation on Pokrovskaya front: Since early December, Russian army has taken control of new positions on the east bank of the Haichur River north of Nechaivka, which will serve as a launching point for new attacks across the river. DRGs are already operating on...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1386: Situation on Huliaipole front: Russian Army recaptured completely the locality of Dobropillya & made new advances east of Varvarivka. In addition, during the last three days Russian forces made new advances at Naberezhna street in the northern part of Huliaipole...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1384: Situation on Huliaipole front: After a brief recapture by Ukrainian Army the locality of Dobropillya was practically recovered by Russian Army in the next hours. In addition, during the last three days Russian forces made new advances inside Huilaipole along the...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1382: Situation on Pokrovskaya & Huliaipole fronts: During the first days of December Ukrainian Army crossed Vovcha River & recaptured the locality of Tykhe & the southwestern warehouses. In addition, Ukrainian forces launched a counterattack & managed to recapture...

t.me

Ukrainian M1117 getting hit near Gulyaypole. It seems to have gotten stuck.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

A series of drone strikes on pickups and cars in the Gulyaypole area. Most appear to be Ukrainian military logistics, but a couple are hard to tell.

Colonelcassad

БИТВА ЗА ГУЛЯЙПОЛЕ Операторы БЛА 5 армии группировки войск "Восток" систематически выбивают технику ВСУ в районе Гуляйполя, нарушая логистику противника в данном районе. @voin_dv

t.me

Russian drones hunt Ukrainian infantry west of the Gaychur.

Dambiev

Операторы БЛА 37 гвардейской мотострелковой бригады 36 армии группировки войск "Восток" нанесли серию ударов по передовым позициям 110 механизированной бригады ВСУ на западном берегу реки Гайчур. Были уничтожены средства связи и живая сила противника. @voin_dv | @voin_dv в MAX

t.me

Russian forces near Gulyaypole used a stripped down Ural truck as an assault vehicle. Note, the attempt failed, despite the EW systems it's equipped with.

Осведомитель

Облегчённая версия грузового автомобиля «Урал», используемая российскими бойцами в ходе штурмовых действий на Запорожском направлении в районе Гуляйполя. К сожалению, попытка закончилась трагично. Осведомитель

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Штурмовой багги-пикап "Урал" (!) ВС РФ, уничтоженный FPV-дронами противника. Теперь вы видели еще больше. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Russian strikes in Gulyaypole.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Dambiev

Кадры уничтожения ПВД 225 ошп ВСУ огнём РСЗО «Торнадо-С» в районе н.п. Гуляйполе. ШТОРМ ⚡️TV теперь в MAX

t.me

Telegram: Contact @kapticxem

t.me

Telegram: Contact @boris_rozhin

t.me

Russian strikes on a Ukrainian dugout near Gulyaypole.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Telegram: Contact @boris_rozhin

t.me

Russian TOS-2 operations around Gulyaypole.

Telegram: Contact @boris_rozhin

t.me

Zaporozhye.

Russian forces have advanced eastward out of Stepnogorsk taking a number of positions around the solar farms there and linking up with Russian troops near Stepovoe. The fate of the mid-rise apartments in Stepnogorsk is still unclear.

Telegram: Contact @Suriyak_maps

t.me

Telegram: Contact @Suriyak_maps

t.me

Telegram: Contact @Suriyak_maps

t.me

 

[Feanor]

Dnepr front.

Russian forces from the 126th Coastal Bde using improvised unmanned boats for logistics in the delta of the Dnepr.

Telegram: Contact @boris_rozhin

t.me

Telegram: Contact @milinfolive

t.me

Black Sea/Crimea.

Ukraine hit a Russian Naval pier in Novorossiysk. The target was clearly a sub, but the sub had moved since the strike was planned, causing the drone to miss it. It's unclear if the sub took any damage as a result. Official Russian sources claim the sub is undamaged, but we won't really know until we see it go out to sea.

Telegram: Contact @milinfolive

t.me

Telegram: Contact @kapticxem

t.me

Russia hit a Turkish ship carrying sunflower seed oil, heading from Odessa to Egypt. Mirroring what Ukraine did in one of their strikes, a Russian Shahed hit the ship causing some damage.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Telegram: Contact @infomil_live

t.me

Telegram: Contact @milinfolive

t.me

Ukraine hit the Dashan tanker heading into Novorossiysk.

Telegram: Contact @milinfolive

t.me

Telegram: Contact @RVvoenkor

t.me

Ukraine hit the Taman' bay, damaging two Russian vessels and a pier.

Telegram: Contact @AMK_Mapping

t.me

Telegram: Contact @milinfolive

t.me

A Ukrainian drone attempts to hit an S-400 radar in Crimea, but apparently falls before it reaches the target. It is possible the drone had a payload that fired from that distance, causing the drone to fall. Also note the fencing around it.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Telegram: Contact @infomil_live

t.me

Telegram: Contact @milinfolive

t.me

Ukraine hit an An-26 and two radars in Crimea.

Telegram: Contact @milinfolive

t.me

A Russian MiG-31BM being towed, in the sights of a Ukrainian drone, Bel'bek airfield, Crimea. It's unclear what the fate of the jet is.

Telegram: Contact @milinfolive

t.me

Ukraine allegedly hit a Russian Coast Guard ship.

Telegram: Contact @AMK_Mapping

t.me

Strikes.

With recent strikes a pattern has emerged where Russia is apparently trying to break Ukraine's energy system into separate islands, to make it more difficult to re-allocate energy from one part of the country to another. In particular it appears they're trying to isolate eastern Ukraine. It remains to be seen if it succeeds.

Russian strikes on Kiev.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Telegram: Contact @RVvoenkor

t.me

Russia has been hitting the town of Fastov, focusing on rail infrastructure, for at least 3 days.

Telegram: Contact @boris_rozhin

t.me

Telegram: Contact @infomil_live

t.me

Telegram: Contact @milinfolive

t.me

Battle damage to the Fastov rail depot after multiple Russian strikes.

Telegram: Contact @infomil_live

t.me

Russia hit Priluki, Chernigov region. Targets include a substation.

Telegram: Contact @AMK_Mapping

t.me

Russian strikes on Sumy.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Telegram: Contact @boris_rozhin

t.me

Telegram: Contact @RVvoenkor

t.me

Russia hit Shostka, Sumy region. Targets include a gym where allegedly Ukraine was storing munitions.

Telegram: Contact @ChDambiev

t.me

Telegram: Contact @boris_rozhin

t.me

Battle damage in Akhtyrka after Russian strikes.

Colonelcassad

Последствия вчерашних ударов по Ахтырке в Сумской области.

t.me

Russia hits Lozovaya area again. The likely target is rail infrastructure, but confirmation is lacking.

Dambiev

Сегодняшний ночной удар русских "Гераней" по объекту противника в районе н.п. Лозовая Харьковской области.

t.me

Russia hit Pavlograd, Dnepropetrovsk region.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Днепропетровский Павлоград подвергся массированной атаке ударных "Гераней" ⚠️Подписаться на RV: MAX | t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Russia hit Pyatihatka, Dnepropetrovsk region, not to be confused with the village of the same name that much fighting took place over in Zaporozhye in '23.

Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Russian strikes on Kremenchug. Targets include the oil refinery.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️Массированная комбинированная атака на Кременчуг: прогремели десятки взрывов ▪️3 ракеты "Искандер" и до 50 дальнобойных дронов атакуют объекты врага в Кременчуге в Полтавской области. ⚠️Подписаться на RV: MAX | t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

AMK Mapping

Last night, another combined missile and drone attack was carried out on the city of Kremenchuk, Poltava Oblast. Among the targets hit were the main power plant and the oil refinery. NASA FIRMS picked up a large fire burning at the refinery, despite heavy cloud cover over the city. 3...

t.me

Russia hit the Kremenchug hydro-electric dam.

Colonelcassad

Кадры ракетного удара по Кременчугской ГЭС прошедшей ночью.

t.me

Russian strikes on Krivoy Rog. The targets are reportedly energy infrastructure.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Dambiev

Русские "Герани" наносят удар по объекту энергетики в Кривом Роге. 18 декабря 2025 года.

t.me

Colonelcassad

В настоящий момент "Герани" наносят удары по целям в Кривом Роге. Судя по свечению на видео, целью является один из объектов энергетики в городе. Так же благодаря фото от подписчика мы видим, что на месте прилётов возник сильнейший пожар. Следимс... @The_Wrong_Side

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Момент удара дрона-камикадзе «Герань-2» по подстанции в Кривом Роге. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

Атакованы энергообъекты врага в Кривом Роге ▪️Кривой Рог подвергся массированной атаке ударных дронов. В ряде районов города проблемы с электроснабжением, сообщают власти. ⚠️Подписаться на RV: MAX | t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Russia hit a substation in Cherkasy.

Военный Осведомитель

Пожар на подстанции в Черкассах в результате удара дронов-камикадзе «Герань-2». Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Russia hit Zaporozhye city, with gliding bombs and Lancets. The Lancet strike in particular found two Ukrainian armored vehicles parked among many civilian ones and took them out. An apartment building got hit but the damage is relatively light, leading to speculation that it may have been a SAM that hit it, others that it may have been an interecepted glide bomb. The Motor-Sich factory was also damaged. Links represent at least 3 separate waves of strikes.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

VK.com | VK

vk.com

AMK Mapping

A short time ago, 2 Russian KAB glide-bombs impacted an unknown target in Zaporizhzhia City Centre.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Удары по Запорожью. В городе несколько прилетов. Титаны ППО по традиции залупили зенитной ракетой по многоэтажке.

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Уничтожение ударами "Ланцетов" бронеавтомобилей ВСУ, припаркованных на стоянке среди гражданских машин и большегрузов в Хортицком районе на западной окраине Запорожья. Видео: @The_Wrong_Side Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Близкий ракурс на украинские бронемашины, ставшие жертвой российских "Ланцетов" в Запорожье. Видимо, ВС РФ имели доступ к камерам наблюдения парковки, на которую приехали украинские военные на своих бронеавтомобилях, после чего разведывательный дрон провел доразведку и полетели "Ланцеты"...

t.me

AMK Mapping

What's odd is that the damage here does not match that expected from a 250 or 500-kilogram bomb. Previously, I thought that it impacted right at the base or in front of the building (red square), but footage posted by the OVA shows that there is no crater. Only minor damage to the front of the...

t.me

AMK Mapping

Two geolocations show that one of the Russian glide-bombs impacted a high-rise residential building in the Pivdenni District of Zaporizhzhia City. Coordinates: 47.7748, 35.17731

t.me

AMK Mapping

More from Zaporizhzhia. This is in the Pivdenny District in the southern part of the city.

t.me

AMK Mapping

Scenes from Zaporizhzhia City. A large attack is underway.

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Удары авиабомб по Запорожью. Сообщается о прилете по объекту критической инфраструктуры и многоэтажке. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

AMK Mapping

Yesterday, Russian KAB glide-bombs struck the Motor Sich Plant in Zaporizhzhia City, targeting workshops 6, 46, & 50. This is evidenced by footage published by the Zaporizhzhia OVA showing minor damage to residential buildings just across the street. Coordinates: 47.820903, 35.192593

t.me

Battle damage from Russian strikes on a substation in Malaya Belozerka. It provides an iron ore facility in the area with power.

Военный Осведомитель

Подстанция Запорожского железорудного завода в селе Малая Белозерка Запорожской области, повреждённая вчера в результате ударов дронов-камикадзе. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Russia hit Nikolaev. Power outages are reported.

Colonelcassad

Вчера вечером наши"Герани" работали по целям врага в Николаеве, с мест сообщают что в городе нет электричества и соответственно воды В Николаеве после ночных прилетов возникли проблемы с мобильной связью и электротранспортом На улицы выпустили троллейбусы с автономным ходом, сообщают местные...

t.me

AMK Mapping

Scenes from Mykolaiv City, which was targeted by Russian Iskander-K cruise missiles and Geran-2 drones. A fire can be seen burning at an unknown facility - possibly the combined heat and power plant.

t.me

 

[Feanor]

Russia hit Odessa, targets reportedly include energy infrastructure such as the Centrolit substation, and port infrastructure. A ferry carrying agricultural produce was damaged and a Turkish cargo ship was hit. Reportedly the cargo ship was carrying generators for Ukraine. These links represent at least 4 separate waves of strikes.

Военный Осведомитель

Удары по энергообъектам Одессы продолжаются - над городом стоит зарево от пожаров после прилетов "Гераней". Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Colonelcassad

Видео ударов дальнобойными дронами вчера вечером по целям в Одесской области.

t.me

Осведомитель

Входящие в Одессе. Осведомитель

t.me

Осведомитель

По портовой инфраструктуре Одессы вновь нанесён удар несколькими баллистическими ракетами ОТРК «Искандер-М». Осведомитель

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

От удара по порту под Одессой сгорел паром ▪️В результате комбинированного удара по Одесской области, на пароме в Ильичевске сгорел склад с мандаринами. По местным оценкам в негодность пришло несколько тонн новогодних фруктов. ⚠️Подписаться на RV: MAX | t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Как заявляется, видео изнутри турецкого судна CENK T, атакованного "Геранями" в порту Черноморска Одесской области 12 декабря. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Осведомитель

Ночная Одесса в ходе попытки отражения ночного комбинированного налёта ВС РФ на объекты энергетики Украины в Одесской области. Осведомитель

t.me

Dambiev

Еще одно эффектное видео вчерашней атаки русских "Гераней" на объекты инфраструктуры противника в Одессе.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Еще фото из порта Одессы, уже поинформативнее

t.me

Colonelcassad

На судне в Одессе, куда прилетели ракеты стоят контейнеры фирмы "АКСА", которая является крупным производителем дизельных, бензиновых и газовых генераторов, электростанций. Судно должно было идти в Румынию, но как-то оказалось в Одессе. Получается, что предварительно удар был нанесён по теневой...

t.me

Colonelcassad

Ночные прилёты Гераней по Одессе.

t.me

Colonelcassad

По Одессе продолжает прилетать. Сообщают о взрыве за взрывом. @belarusian_silovik

t.me

Colonelcassad

Фото одной из как минимум десяти пораженных прошедшей ночью подстанций в Одессе.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Еще немного ночной Одессы

t.me

Colonelcassad

Еще Одесса.Вчерашние прилеты русских "Гераней" по объектам противника. @ChDambiev

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Момент прилета дрона-камикадзе «Герань-2» по турецкому судну в Черноморске. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Турки снимают вблизи свое горящее судно в порту Одессы. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Судно продолжает гореть. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Поражен оказался пассажирско-грузовой паром CENK T турецкой компании Cenk Ro-Ro, активно ходящий под флагом Панамы из Турции на Украину и обратно. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Нанесён удар по порту Одессы. Сообщается, что горит грузовое судно. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ В Одессе пылает грузовое судно после удара баллистических ракет После атак ВСУ на танкеры так называемого "теневого флота" России началась охота и на грузовые суда Украины и её союзников. ⚠️Подписаться на RV: MAX | t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

Удар по «теневой энергетике» Украины: ракетой в Одессе поражено турецкое судно с электрогенераторами компании «АКСА» В судно турецкой компании Cenk RoRo с грузом генераторов в контейнерах прилетела балллистическая ракета ⚠️Подписаться на RV: MAX | t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Дальше следует непереводимая игра слов с использованием местных идиоматических выражений. На борту CENK T турецкой компании Cenk Ro-Ro, после прилета дрона-камикадзе «Герань-2». Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Схемы и карты военных действий

ВКС России сегодня днем подловили контрабандиста в одном из портов Одесской области. Данный сухогруз еще вчера стоял на рейде Дуная с портом приписки груза Сулина (Румыния) и неожиданно на следующий день оказался на Украине под разгрузкой. Схемы и карты

t.me

AMK Mapping

Overnight, around 8 Russian Geran-2 drones attacked energy infrastructure in Odesa City. The target was likely the "Centrolit" 220 kV electrical substation (46.61796, 30.82342). A large fire subsequently broke out, resulting in power outages for parts of northern Odesa.

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Момент прилета кассетного "Искандера" по цели в Одессе. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Colonelcassad

В Одессе местные жители фиксируют прилёты по объектам.

t.me

Colonelcassad

По судну в порту Черноморска сегодня все таки прилетела «Герань-2», а не баллистика. Похоже на предупредительный.

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

VK.com | VK

vk.com

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russia has been striking bridges in Odessa region, including the Mayak bridge and the Zatoka bridge. A train was hit as part of these strikes. Iskanders and Shaheds are being used. Note the links below are multiple strikes. The intent seems to be to disrupt transport from Romania. Note that despite many strikes, the Mayak bridge remains active.

AMK Mapping

Russian Geran-2 drones have begun attacking the bridge in Mayak, Odesa Oblast. This bridge is on one of two routes connecting southern Odesa Oblast with the rest of Ukraine; however, it briefly goes through Moldovan territory. This comes as Russia has been heavily striking the bridge on the...

t.me

AMK Mapping

Impacted the Mayaky Bridge. Geran-2 drones attacked it earlier. Coordinates: 46.4126, 30.26165'

t.me

AMK Mapping

Footage of the Russian Iskander-M ballistic missile strike on the Mayaky Bridge in Odesa Oblast. The missile was equipped with a cluster warhead.

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

Армия России пытается отрезать от транспортного сообщения всю западную часть Одесской области, — эксперт ВСУ ▪️14 декабря российские войска атаковали мост в Затоке почти 40 "Геранями", из которых около двух десятков попали в цель. Сегодня ВС РФ начал атаковать мост в Маяках, заявляет эксперт...

t.me

Танки. История и современность. Btvt.info

Результат пробы «пера» - убита женщина за рулем и ранено 3 детей в автомобиле. Повреждений мосту ноль. Вообще с начала войны тысячи жертв пропаганды «такихсамолетовкакнаши» вопрошают – мосты, мосты, чего не уничтожат мосты? А не уничтожают не потому, что не хотят, а потому, что не могут.

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Удар "Герани-2" по мосту через Днестр в селе Маяки Одесской области. Координаты: 46.412526, 30.261661 Помимо моста в Затоке, атакованного недавно, данный мост является еще одним путем на юго-запад Одесской области в сторону Измаила, а также границы с Молдавией и Румынией. Заявляется, что...

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Результат удара одиночной «Герани-2» по мосту через Днестр в селе Маяки Одесской области. Как и ожидалось, полотно моста получило незначительные повреждения в виду недостаточной боевой части. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Осведомитель

Сегодняшний прилет БПЛА-камикадзе «Герань-2» по мосту у Маяков Одесской области. На прошлой неделе был атакован железнодорожный мост у Затоки - туда прилетело около 40 дронов-камикадзе. Украинские аналитики сообщают, что РФ планирует отрезать западную часть Одесской области от остальной...

t.me

Colonelcassad

Момент прилета "Герани" по мосту в Маяках Одесской области на трассе Одесса-Рени.

t.me

Осведомитель

Кадры с последствиями удара российского БПЛА-камикадзе «Герань-2»/«Гарпия-А1» по мосту у Маяков Одесской области. К сожалению, в момент удара в непосредственной близости от эпицентра взрыва оказалась машина с гражданскими, среди которых есть погибшие и раненые (включая детей). Но пост не об...

t.me

Схемы и карты военных действий

Удар по мосту в Маяках, до этого били по Затоке. Отрезают военные поставки из Румынии. Красивое видео, Геранька проскочила между пулеметных струек. схемы и карты

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

Армия России атакует логистику в тылах: "Герани" бьют по мосту через реку Днестр в Одесской области. ▪️В результате серии ударов нарушают логистику противника, после первого удара мост уже находится в аварийном состоянии. Ожидаются новые удары для разрушения объекта. ⚠️Подписаться на RV: MAX |...

t.me

Colonelcassad

Украинский железнодорожный состав после удара ВС РФ в поселке Затока, Одесская область. 46.0645900, 30.4455483 - тут. @divannyevoini

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Объективный контроль около 15 прилетов бомб и дронов-камикадзе по мосту через Затоку в Одесской области, который неоднократно пытались поразить с самого начала СВО. Судя по кадрам, целились конкретно в подъемные механизмы, чтобы исключить проход судов под мостом. Например, ранее аналогичным...

t.me

Схемы и карты военных действий

И еще фото из Затоки Праздничной вишенкой стало поражение жд состава, по слухам с зерном. Логично, зерноконтрабанда на баржах прикрылась нашими ракетчиками, они погнали продукцию паровозами. Еще не очень понятно, зачем им вдоль железнодорожного полотна ржавые противотанковые ежи.

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

По мосту через реку Днестр в Маяках Одесской области наносятся повторные удары. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Осведомитель

t.me

Осведомитель

Прилет БПЛА-камикадзе «Герань-2» по железнодорожному мосту в Одесской области. На данный момент известно, что автомобильный мост через Днестр, по которому прилетало и сегодня, не функционирует и вместо него украинские власти возвели понтонную переправу, о чем сообщили в СМИ. Ситуация с ж/д...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

Армия России продолжает разрушать стратегически важный мост через Днестр По мосту в Маяках Одесской области наносят новые удары дроны "Герань". ⚠️Подписаться на RV: MAX | t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Осведомитель

Также по мосту через Днестр в Маяке Одесской области сегодня был нанесён удар баллистической ракетой ОТРК «Искандер-М» с кассетной боевой частью. Честно говоря, какого-либо смысла в плане повреждения моста данный удар не несёт, а скорее нацелен на отпугивание ремонтных бригад в целях...

t.me

AMK Mapping

6 Grom-E1 rocket-powered glide-bombs and at least 18 Geran-2 drones targeted the Zatoka Bridge in Odesa Oblast. All of the glide-bombs and most of the drones impacted. Coordinates: 46.07611, 30.46972

t.me

Осведомитель

В Одесской области под атакой дронов-камикадзе «Герань-2» мост в районе поселка Маяки. Осведомитель

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Несмотря на наносившиеся три дня подряд удары дронами-камикадзе «Герань-2» и ОТРК «Искандер» с кассетной боевой частью, движение по мосту через Днестр в селе Маяки Одесской области снова открыто. Видео: @voenacher Военный Осведомитель

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

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vk.com

Allegedly footage Ukraine towing a pontoon bridge to the Mayak area to replace the main bridge.

Военный Осведомитель

Как заявляется, на фото буксировка паромной переправы через Днестр к селу Маяки, где из-за постоянных "Гераней" классический мост становится непригоден для использования. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Russia hit Belgorod-Dnestrovskiy, Odessa region.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Colonelcassad

Сообщают о серии прилётов в Белгород-Днестровском Одесской области.

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

Мощный удар нанесён по объекту врага под Одессой Поражена цель в Белгороде-Днестровском Одесской области. ⚠️Подписаться на RV: MAX | t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Russia hit Yuzhnoe, Odessa region. The target was the Alseeds agro-industrial facility.

Colonelcassad

Что-то сильно горит в Одесской области после работы Гераней. По заявлениям местных каналов видео снято в н.п. Южное. Атака всё еще продолжается, группа дронов снова бьёт в то же место.

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

Армия России атаковала объект врага в Одесской области ▪️Удары по маслоэкстракционному комплексу «Allseads Black Sea» в н.п. Южное были нанесены при помощи "Гераней. ▪️На территории предприятия начался масштабный пожар. ⚠️Подписаться на RV: MAX | t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Russian strikes in Artsiz, Odessa region.

Colonelcassad

Недавний прилёт дрона-камикадзе Герань-2 по объекту в Арцизе Одесской области.

t.me

Some of the strikes in Odessa were done with UMPB-5 gliding bombs.

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vk.com

Ukrainian Yak-52 engaging Russian drones over Odessa.

Военный Осведомитель

Украинский Як-52 сбивает "Герань-2" над побережьем Одессы. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Russian strikes on Rovno.

Военный Осведомитель

«Вы все еще кипятите? Тогда мы идем к вам!» На данный момент дроны-камикадзе «Герань-2» выносят энергетику и другие объекты в украинском Ровно. Много крылатых ракет уже в воздушном пространстве врага, летят на запад. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

A Russian Shahed strike apparently derailed a cargo train near Zhitomyr, which then led to the derailment of the locomotive of a passenger train. Note we have seen cases of OLS-equipped Shaheds targeting trains before.

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AMK Mapping

Ukrzaliznytsia reports that a freight train derailed near the city of Korosten, Zhytomyr Oblast. They stated that the cause is "unknown", however it is known that it was struck by multiple Russian Geran-2 drones overnight.

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️Кадры атакованного и сошедшего с рельсов грузового поезда, парализовавшего движение в Житомирской области. ▪️Ударные "Герани" атаковали ключевой узел логистики в Житомирской области. В результате поражения с рельс сошёл грузовой состав, а также локомотив пассажирского состава, практически...

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Сошедший с рельс поезд "Харьков-Ужгород" в Житомирской области в результате прилета "Герани" по локомотиву. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Осведомитель

Еще один ракурс на железнодорожный состав, пущенный под откос ударами БпЛА-камикадзе «Герань-2» в Житомирской области. Предположительно, для ударов применялась версии «Герань-2» под прямым управлением операторами ВС РФ. Осведомитель

t.me

Осведомитель

Пораженные ночью украинские железнодорожные составы в Житомирской области. По локомотивам ударили БПЛА-камикадзе «Герань-2». Осведомитель

t.me

There are unconfirmed reports that Russia used an Iskander missile with 1000km range in Ukraine. There have been reports that Russia is working on a "long" Iskander for quite some time.

Военный Осведомитель

Россия впервые запустила ракету "Искандер-М" на дальность около 800 км, утверждают каналы противника. Утверждается, что новая ракета способна преодолевать расстояние в 900-1000 км за счет увеличенного объема твердого топлива и сниженной массы боевой части, а также летит на скорости, близкой к...

t.me

Another look at a pretty significant miss of a Russian Kinzhal that hit Starokonstantinov airbase area. Questions remain about the accuracy of the munition.

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vk.com

Telegram: Contact @infomil_live

t.me

Ukraine hit a Russian oil platform in the Caspian Sea.

Telegram: Contact @AMK_Mapping

t.me

Ukraine hit a substation near Kursk, causing blackouts.

Telegram: Contact @RVvoenkor

t.me

Ukraine hit Rostov-na-Donu lighting a Russian river tanker on fire.

Telegram: Contact @infomil_live

t.me

Telegram: Contact @milinfolive

t.me

Telegram: Contact @milinfolive

t.me

Telegram: Contact @RVvoenkor

t.me

Telegram: Contact @milinfolive

t.me

A Ukrainian missile hit Gorlovka, target unclear, and we have a reported HIMARS strike on an industrial facility. It's unclear if the two are the same.

Telegram: Contact @AMK_Mapping

t.me

Telegram: Contact @boris_rozhin

t.me

A Ukrainian drone fell in Buddenovsk damaging some buildings. Reportedly a local petro-chemical plant was the target.

Telegram: Contact @RVvoenkor

t.me

Ukrainian HIMARS strikes hit the Belgorod powerplant.

Telegram: Contact @AMK_Mapping

t.me

Telegram: Contact @RVvoenkor

t.me

Telegram: Contact @milinfolive

t.me

Russian air defenses intercepting some GMLRS in the Belgorod area.

Telegram: Contact @milinfolive

t.me

Ukraine hit the Saratov oil refinery again. Note that despite many repeated strikes, these refineries generally remain active.

Telegram: Contact @milinfolive

t.me

Ukraine hit the Slavneft-YANOS refinery in Yaroslavl'.

Telegram: Contact @milinfolive

t.me

Ukraine hit two S-400 TELs in Belgorod region while they were on the move. The strike was ~50kms behind the front lines.

Telegram: Contact @milinfolive

t.me

A Ukrainian drone hit a residential building in Tver', with 7 civilians reported wounded.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Telegram: Contact @RVvoenkor

t.me

Russian battlegroup North drone defense teams engaging a Ukrainian An-196.

Telegram: Contact @milinfolive

t.me

Russian forces in Chechnya engaging a Ukrainian E300 Skyranger drone.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Telegram: Contact @infomil_live

t.me

Russian drone defense team with twin maxim guns.

Telegram: Contact @milinfolive

t.me

Russian helos engage Ukrainian drones.

Telegram: Contact @boris_rozhin

t.me

A Russian interceptor drone downs a Ukrainian An-196.

Telegram: Contact @infomil_live

t.me

 

[Feanor]

Interesting bits.

Ukraine attacked a tanker reportedly involved in the transport of Russian oil, out in the Mediterranean.

Telegram: Contact @AMK_Mapping

t.me

Telegram: Contact @infomil_live

t.me

Ukraine lost an Mi-24 recently, possibly to a Russian drone. The helo is from the 12 Tactical Aviation Bde.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Telegram: Contact @milinfolive

t.me

Telegram: Contact @RVvoenkor

t.me

Ukrainian infiltrators or likelier hired locals snuck into the Lipetsk-2 airbase in Russia and tried to burn down a decommissioned Su-27 and an active Su-30SM. Allegedly the attempts failed, but it's not clear. Note the Su-30SM was in a hangar, with weapons mounted.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Telegram: Contact @infomil_live

t.me

Telegram: Contact @infomil_live

t.me

Telegram: Contact @milinfolive

t.me

Telegram: Contact @boris_rozhin

t.me

A Russian truck with an armored cabin after getting hit. I think this is a perfect illustration of the value of this approach.

Telegram: Contact @milinfolive

t.me

A Russian BTR-82A in the sights of a Ukrainian drone. But the Russian vehicle has a Starlink terminal on top of it. In general it seems Russia is using more and more of them for various reasons.

Telegram: Contact @infomil_live

t.me

There is confirmation that some Russian gliding bombs have air-burst capacility.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Ukraine received 16 upgraded ZSU-23-4s with new radars and a new FCS.

Telegram: Contact @bmpd_cast

t.me

Ukraine has apparently started operating an AW109 helo, confiscated from a Ukrainian politician.

Telegram: Contact @milinfolive

t.me

A look at Ukraine's 56th Mech Bde T-64BVs during training.

Telegram: Contact @btvt2019

t.me

Ukraine's 1st Assault Rgt with their very own tank sheds. These are T-72EA.

Telegram: Contact @btvt2019

t.me

Ukraine's 5th Assault Rgt with a T-90K tank. They call it an AK but based on the Essa thermals, I think it's an original T-90K.

Telegram: Contact @btvt2019

t.me

Reportedly Ukraine is working on adding guidance systems to S-8 rockets, presumably to produce something like the APKWS.

Telegram: Contact @milinfolive

t.me

Ukraine's BMW-MLRS. A stark reminder that despite all the aid delivered to one side and increases in production from the other, there's still a shortage of equipment of every kind on both sides.

Telegram: Contact @milinfolive

t.me

We have another first, a Ukrainian drone carried a radar, attempting to blind a Russian drone.

Telegram: Contact @milinfolive

t.me

Australia reportedly completed delivery of 49 M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine.

Telegram: Contact @btvt2019

t.me

We have some new Russian UGVs, one called the Omich, the other the Nerekhta, both have shown up in the war zone. We also have an EW version of the Courier and an unknown platform, but wire-guided.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Telegram: Contact @ChDambiev

t.me

Telegram: Contact @boris_rozhin

t.me

Telegram: Contact @boris_rozhin

t.me

Telegram: Contact @infomil_live

t.me

Russia's 123rd MRBde in training. Note we don't see any armored vehicles, just UAZ Patriot pickups and Ulan light buggies. The infantry is carrying a mix AKs from various makes, though all appear to be 5.45mm variants.

Telegram: Contact @milinfolive

t.me

We have a Russian Molniya drone with a Starlink terminal and one with mine-laying capability.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Telegram: Contact @infomil_live

t.me

Telegram: Contact @milinfolive

t.me

Telegram: Contact @infomil_live

t.me

A video of Russian FAB-500 drones getting their UMPK kits.

Telegram: Contact @bmpd_cast

t.me

Some materials on Russia's 123rd MRBde, specifically it's drone elements. We have some footage from their drone lab, and the subsequent delivery of those drones to front-line units.

Telegram: Contact @milinfolive

t.me

Telegram: Contact @milinfolive

t.me

Antiques continue to show up in the war, we have Russian forces with the SG-43 MMG. It's here with an anti-air tripod.

Telegram: Contact @milinfolive

t.me

Another exchange of bodies, 26 dead Russian soldiers for 1003 Ukrainian ones.

Telegram: Contact @AMK_Mapping

t.me

Ukrainian POWs being driven through the center of Donetsk. Recent Russian advances have led to an uptick in POWs but there's still no mass surrender on any appreciable scale.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

There are reports Russian security forces, either private or government, are being deployed to tankers transporting Russian oil.

Telegram: Contact @milinfolive

t.me

Ukrainian forces training in Jomsburg, Poland.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Ukraine will reportedly eliminate their foreign legion formations and send their service members into assault units. It's unclear whether the service members can simply opt-out or if Ukraine intends to do this involuntarily. This will certainly limit recruitment, and it might be an indicator that Ukraine isn't seen much recruitment into these units anyway.

Telegram: Contact @RVvoenkor

t.me

Russia continues to build up Donetsk airport for Shahed storage and launches.

Telegram: Contact @AMK_Mapping

t.me

 

[rsemmes]

No joining NATO and no reparations.
Now Russia will demand land and Merry Christmas.

Zelensky reveals full 20-point peace plan draft backed by Ukraine, US

After weeks of talks, Ukraine and the U.S. have prepared a draft of the revised peace plan to end Russia’s full-scale war. The initial 28-point plan, which effectively pushed Ukraine toward capitulation, has been reworked into a 20-point framework, which President Volodymyr Zelensky presented...

kyivindependent.com

No foreign troops in Ukraine and EU more like in 2047.

 

[KipPotapych]

Some (so-far) December stats from the guy who watches too many videos (Andrew Perpetua), the tweet can be found here:

Here are losses we could identify so far in December, not including today (because I did this instead of finishing today):

This list only includes losses I have gone through and verified as accurate, there are like 800 more I have not verified yet.

Civilian Vehicles (pickups, lada, loafs, etc):
- Russia: 511 (6 Abandoned, 339 Damaged, 166 Destroyed)
- Ukrainian: 991 (5 abandoned, 751 Damaged, 235 Destroyed)

ATVs:
- Russian 416 (1 Abandoned, 53 Damaged, 362 Destroyed)
- Ukrainian: 132 ( 2 Abandoned, 25 Damaged, 105 Destroyed)

Trucks:
- Russian: 113 (12 Abandoned, 86 Damaged, 15 Destroyed)
- Ukrainian: 69 (10 Abandoned, 44 Damaged, 15 Destroyed)

IMV:
- Ukrainian: 141 (34 Abandoned, 84 Damaged, 22 Destroyed, 1 old loss Recovered)

MRAP:
- Russian: 2 (2 Damaged)
- Ukrainian: 67 (47 Damaged, 20 Destroyed)

APC:
- Russian: 29 (9 Abandoned, 7 Damaged, 13 Destroyed)
- Ukrainian: 92 (35 Abandoned, 37 Damaged, 19 Destroyed, 1 Captured)

IFV:
- Russian: 56 (24 Abandoned, 16 Damaged, 16 Destroyed)
- Ukrainian: 20 (8 Dmaged, 12 Destroyed)

Tank:
- Russian: 81 (25 Abandoned, 35 Damaged, 21 Destroyed)
- Ukrainian: 51 (12 Abandoned, 26 Damaged, 13 Destroyed)

Other Armored Vehicles:
- Russian: 28 (17 Abandoned, 3 Damaged, 8 Destroyed)
- Ukrainian: 23 ( 11 Abandoned, 8 Damaged, 4 Destroyed)

Artillery:
- Russian: 153 (2 Abandoned, 143 Damaged, 8 Destroyed)
- Ukrainian: 157 ( 1 Abandoned, 140 Damaged, 16 Destroyed)

Air Defense:
- Russian: 10 (6 Damaged, 4 Destroyed)
- Ukrainian 1 ( 1 Damaged)

Radar:
- Russian: 18 (14 Damaged, 4 Destroyed)
- Ukrainian 11 (2 Damaged, 7 Destroyed) (these raw numbers are misleading, these Ukrainian radars are mostly irrelevant)

EW:
- Russian: 29 (1 Damaged, 28 Destroyed)
- Ukrainian: 32 (2 Damaged, 30 Destroyed)

Surveillance/Comms:
- Russian: 373 (2 Damaged, 371 Destroyed)
- Ukrainian: 735 (3 Damaged, 732 Destroyed)

Engineering Vehicles:
- Russian: 11 (1 Abandoned, 7 Damaged, 3 Destroyed)
- Ukrainian: 21 (19 Damaged, 13 Destroyed)

Recovery Vehicles:
- Russian: 4 (1 Abandoned, 1 Damaged, 2 Destroyed)
- Ukrainian: 1 (1 Abandoned)

Boats:
- Russian: 13 (10 Damaged, 3 Destroyed)
- Ukrainian: 4 (3 Damaged, 1 Destroyed)

Ships:
- Russian: 2 (1 Damaged, 1 Destroyed)

Planes:
- Russian: 9 (3 Damaged, 6 Destroyed)
- Ukrainian: without visual confirmation

Drones (UGVs and USVs):
- Russian: 60 (19 Damaged, 41 Destroyed)
- Ukrainian: 415 (191 Damaged, 223 Destroyed, 1 Sunk)

Decoys:
- Russian: 1 (1 Damaged)
- Ukrainian: 12 (11 Damaged, 1 Destroyed)

Other Losses That Cannot be Identified:
- Russian: 29 (3 Abandoned, 13 Damaged, 13 Destroyed)
- Ukrainian: 33 (1 Abandoned, 19 Damaged, 13 Destroyed)


Sure seems like sustainable ratios for Ukraine and realistic 1:3 to 1:20 kill ratio (in UA favour, of course), depending on who you are listening to. Andrew himself is convinced that Russia is losing and compares it to the house of cards, be it on the battlefield, economic situation in Russia, you name it. Just a little more pressure…

To me, those numbers suggest that either a) Ukraine has no issues with neither recruitment nor equipment supplies or b) they are throwing all they have gotten to, apparently, keep the situation exactly as it appears to be now while working on their (currently completely unrealistic) peace plan.

Speaking of the peace plan:

Zelensky reveals full 20-point peace plan draft backed by Ukraine, US

After weeks of talks, Ukraine and the U.S. have prepared a draft of the revised peace plan to end Russia’s full-scale war. The initial 28-point plan, which effectively pushed Ukraine toward capitulation, has been reworked into a 20-point framework, which President Volodymyr Zelensky presented...

kyivindependent.com

Point 3 is straight up weird provided there is point 5. Point 5 also says that Russia cannot violate the ceasefire, but Ukraine can fire at Russian positions in the occupied territories and the US, NATO, and Europe will have to take action against Russia if the latter responds to the Ukrainian fire.

Russia has to formalize its non-aggression stance towards Ukraine and Europe while neither Ukraine nor Europe are obligated to do the same.

Points 8 and 9 are again redundant. The goal is to raise $800B to offset “the damage from the Russian war”. Interestingly though, based on the World Bank estimates, about half (of roughly $530B) the damage is due in the Russian occupied territories.



Source for the graphic presentaion:

UA War Infographics

Для відновлення однієї тільки Донецької області потрібно буде 78 млрд доларів протягом 10 років — якщо війна зупиниться зараз і Україна поверне окуповані території під свій контроль. З часом ця сума буде зростати, та й станом на зараз не доводиться говорити, що це повна вартість відновлення —...

t.me

Free-trade agreement with the US is a laughable concept until at least the next administration and not a given then either (unlikely, in my opinion).

Point 12 suggests that Russians should give up control of the nuclear plant, as well as some territory in Zaporozhie. That is a pipe dream. They are more likely to take a lot more before things wrap up.

Point 13 is not acceptable to Russia either. The “courses” aside, they have issues of language treatment in the Baltics, that are actually in the EU.

Point 14 is complete nonsense: the current frontline in the formally annexed regions is to be recognized as the de facto frontline. Is it not now? At the same time, Russia must withdraw from the Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv regions. The logical solution for Russia is to formally recognize the four regions in question as part of Russia, I guess? This point, by the way, goes well with my comments on the “security guarantees” above (point 5). Zelesnky himself is quoted in the article under this point that the war will continue and he is right (credit should be given where it is due).

Point 16 says that Russia actually does not have to withdraw from the occupied Mykolaiv region after all, but demilitarize it. And again some imposed obligations on Russia without the equal obligations imposed on Ukraine.

Way more to comment on this “plan”, but I believe this is more than sufficient to illustrate how unrealistic (and, frankly, completely nuts) this is. In my opinion, this is the worst proposal from Ukraine yet. Notably, zero talk about NATO membership at all as well. Overall, I am rather amazed how even poorly composed this thing is for presumably serious talks. I am sure Trump has subpar reading and comprehension skills, but many others do not, one would think.

I guess, this thread is yet to continue its active existence for a while yet, unfortunately.


Merry Christmas, to whom it may concern.

 

[Redshift]

Evidence.

Omg ..... You constantly excuse Russia by saying other opinions (or even stated intentions ) don't matter, if they see Ukraine or NATO as a threat then Ukraine or NATO is a threat and you don't require them to provide evidence and we must all just accept their "feelings" because Russian feelings and opinions are all that matters.

Feel free to reply with your usual whataboutism or obfuscation of the point but I stopped reading your responses to my comments long ago as I don't really make them for you but for others to read.

 

[Redshift]

As cynical as it may sound, what looks like a swap of Venezuela for Ukraine is underway.

That I agree with, possibly Greenland thrown in as an afterthought.

 

[Redshift]

...to Russia. Did I need to say that?
If I consider my neighbour's dog a threat, it is a threat to me. I doesn't matter what he thinks or what my/his second cousin thinks.

I will take counsel on my judgement of my fears.
Not on yours.

Edit.
NATO shouldn't and cannot take any action against an invasion because Russia considers those fears irrational.

So if you decide to shoot your neighbours poodle because you personally think that it is a threat that's just fine and dandy eh?

What if your neighbour decides that your goldfish is a threat should your neighbour break into your house and kill your goldfish?

 

[Feanor]

The situation in Kupyansk continues to deteriorate for Russia. Ukraine is now gaining ground in eastern Kupyansk and it's looking like they will be able to push Russia out completely.

Sure seems like sustainable ratios for Ukraine and realistic 1:3 to 1:20 kill ratio (in UA favour, of course), depending on who you are listening to. Andrew himself is convinced that Russia is losing and compares it to the house of cards, be it on the battlefield, economic situation in Russia, you name it. Just a little more pressure…

To me, those numbers suggest that either a) Ukraine has no issues with neither recruitment nor equipment supplies or b) they are throwing all they have gotten to, apparently, keep the situation exactly as it appears to be now while working on their (currently completely unrealistic) peace plan.

I think some of this has to do with Ukraine's counter-offensive in Kupyansk. It's been costly. There have also been some counter-attacks in the Konstantinovka area where Ukraine has lost vehicles, and of course the costly attempt to push back into Pokrovsk spearheaded by the newly delivered Australian M1s.

EDIT: Ukraine's defenses in Gulyaypole seem to have collapsed. Russia is still mopping up but the town should be theirs within a day or two. This comes as Russia's push across the Gaychur expands in two bridgeheads, that are nonetheless so close together they will soon form one large one.

 

[vikingatespam]

What if we substitute “forced” with “encouraged with false expectations”? Whether the false expectations are known to be false by the encouraging parties or just a delusion I am not sure, but it does make a big difference.

Your overall point, however, is totally valid.

Im not sure after almost 4 years anyone has any false expectations any more. Even early on, it should of been fundamentally obvious that aid to UKR would by drop by drop.

To be fair, Russia hasn’t even come close to the level of mobilization that would be required to end the war quickly.

True, but RU is likely logistically maxed out, and with AFV stocks largely tapped out, the ensuing internal political dissatisfaction from general mobilization or using conscripts would likely be dangerous.

Also, as per the RUSI report on the RU air defense I cited recently, Russia has not used their newest GBAD missiles at all in this war (probbaly for a reason) and used their “second best” only on a few occasions. I right away thought of Armata tanks and the like, but those are RUSI’s claims.

They have used some of their very fews S-500 batteries in Crimea from old reports, but they dont have enough S-500 to make a difference. See any T-14 in use at the front ? How about Su-57 ? Both are absent - but for good reason - there arent enough of them to make a difference, and the risk of getting them blown up outweighs the benefits of their use. RU is all in at this point.

What about Kazakhstan? You definitely can say that Tokaev is in power solely due to the Russian direct open action during the coup attempt in the early 2022 (an action they never had to take in Belarus). Yet self-governed and not a puppet.

My take on Kazak politics isnt nearly as good as what I know about Belarus (which isnt a great deal in any case), but the point still stands with regards to Belarus vs Poland, Puppet vs Ally.

On this subject. I think I may have talked about it before, but Biletsky (of the Azov), I think it was, who said the other day that soon the number of deserters/AWOL will be higher than the number of personnel in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, or at least those fighting. There is also this great (but idiotic, in my opinion) narrative spread by the Ukrainians that the absolute majority of those deserters and AWOL are simply soldiers trying to switch from one unit to another. Well… (via Google translate from Ukrainian on both accounts)

Again- clearly there is an issue. However, the apparatus as a whole functions for now.

What Poroshenko said there, in short, without literal word for word translation, is that the Flamingo missiles do exist, by they do not work. They can fly and all but never hit targets. They do work in tandem with Neptune, as distractors. Neptune missiles manage to hit targets when they fly next to Flamingos (which is absurd because they fly at different speeds and trajectories -> hence my translation above as “in tandem”). He concludes that they are only useful when a Neptune needs to hit a target, otherwise not so much. But, he lastly says, psychological effect - he makes a gesture - is quite great.

The only clear attributed use of the Flamingo (Crimea) points to issues that need to be resolved. Like the Neptune, I will assume it will get better over time.

 

[vikingatespam]

It literally is not. Wanting to fight, or being willing to fight, refers to the desires of individual citizens. The desire of the Ukrainian government to keep fighting isn't in question.

Do you see widespread political agitation to stop fighting ? Do you see defense contractors deliberately leaving orders unfilled ? Is there sabotage of vehicles and munitions ?

We are probably quibbling over definitions, but without the above, there is clear evidence of the desire to not be Russian.

Now, no one can doubt this is changing over time:

Ukrainian Support for War Effort Collapses

New data from Ukraine show the public favors ending the war with Russia through negotiations, as support for fighting until victory has plummeted.

news.gallup.com

With an increase in "Ukraine should seek to negotiate an ending to the war as soon as possible" this points to war weariness- but this is not the same as surrender. I take (collective) desire to not fight = surrender.

Best current estimates put Ukraine at somewhere between 400-500k troops, with ~300k deserters. There are examples of formations that lose over half of personnel in training before they get to the front lines. I think we can all agree the comparison to US AWOL and draft dodgers is at the very least inaccurate and misleading.

Quantitatively, sure, but the presence of draft dodgers alone doesnt imply anything other than the human nature to not get killed. We are agreeing in principle and disagreeing to the extent of "wanting to fight".

Once we see several of the following, you can be sure the wheels have fallen off the UKR war effort:

- polling indicating the desire to end the war no matter what
- mass protests
- domestic war production suffering from strikes or other logistic disruptions
- widespread, continued RU advances with lower casualty rates