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- #9,641
Apparently. They may have gotten some from Eastern Europe or Greece, or somewhere in the third world.
The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
- Thread starter Feanor
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Larry_L
Active Member
Macron stirred things up by, after being questioned, suggesting that there was a possibility that sending troops to Ukraine could not be ruled out. He is quoted as saying Quote: “there's no consensus today to officially send, assume and endorse troops on the ground. But … nothing should be excluded”. To further stir things up Scholz talked about not wanting to copy Quote: “what the British and French are doing in terms of target management and support for target management”. This is a very inflammatory statement, implying that France, and Britain are very close to, if not in, the kill chain. Meanwhile several NATO members deny that they would send troops. After this there are reports that several countries would not rule that out. Some made statements that the troops would be there for training or operating air defense.
www.thenationalnews.com
nltimes.nl
Alarm bells after Macron says boots on the ground in Ukraine 'not to be ruled out'
Countries including Poland and Sweden are quick to clarify they have no intention of sending in soldiers
www.thenationalnews.com
Dutch military chief: All options open in Ukraine even if NATO won’t yet send troops
It is “not yet opportune” for the Netherlands to talk about sending soldiers to Ukraine, said General Onno Eichelsheim, the Chief of Defence of the Netherlands. “I think you should keep all options open to see how you can best support Ukraine.” The armed forces commander remarked on French...
nltimes.nl
The German Airforce commanders discussion of how best to deliver and operate Taurus missiles is rather enlightening.
As always, Google Translate from a Russian translation - not sure whether the German text is now publicly available:
Расшифровка разговора высокопоставленных офицеров Бундесвера от 19.02.2024 (sekutor)
…
Graefe : I will start with the most sensitive issues, with the existing criticism regarding supplies. Discussions take place almost everywhere. There are several most important aspects here. Firstly, these are delivery times. If the Chancellor now decides that we should supply missiles, they will be transferred from the Bundeswehr. Okay, but they won't be ready for use until eight months. Secondly, we cannot shorten the time. Because if we do this, then an erroneous use may occur, a rocket may fall on a kindergarten, and again there will be civilian casualties. These aspects must be taken into account. It should be noted during the negotiations that we cannot do anything without the manufacturer. They can equip, rearm, and deliver the first missiles. We can catch up with production a little, but we shouldn’t wait for 20 pieces to accumulate, we can transfer five at a time. The delivery time of these missiles directly depends on the industry. Who will pay for this? Another question is what weapon systems will these missiles be mounted on? How should interaction between the company and Ukraine be maintained? Or do we have some kind of integration?
…
Graefe : If the Federal Chancellor decides to go for it, then there must be an understanding that it will take six months just to produce the fastenings. Thirdly, theoretically we may be affected by the issue of training. I have already said that we are collaborating with a rocket manufacturer. They train in the maintenance of these systems, and we train in tactical use. It takes three to four months. This part of the training can take place in Germany. When the first missiles are delivered, we need to make quick decisions regarding mountings and training. We may have to turn to the British on these issues and take advantage of their know-how. We can transmit to them databases, satellite images, planning stations. Apart from the supplies of the missiles themselves, which we have, everything else can be supplied by industry or the IABG.
As always, Google Translate from a Russian translation - not sure whether the German text is now publicly available:
Расшифровка разговора высокопоставленных офицеров Бундесвера от 19.02.2024 (sekutor)
…
Graefe : I will start with the most sensitive issues, with the existing criticism regarding supplies. Discussions take place almost everywhere. There are several most important aspects here. Firstly, these are delivery times. If the Chancellor now decides that we should supply missiles, they will be transferred from the Bundeswehr. Okay, but they won't be ready for use until eight months. Secondly, we cannot shorten the time. Because if we do this, then an erroneous use may occur, a rocket may fall on a kindergarten, and again there will be civilian casualties. These aspects must be taken into account. It should be noted during the negotiations that we cannot do anything without the manufacturer. They can equip, rearm, and deliver the first missiles. We can catch up with production a little, but we shouldn’t wait for 20 pieces to accumulate, we can transfer five at a time. The delivery time of these missiles directly depends on the industry. Who will pay for this? Another question is what weapon systems will these missiles be mounted on? How should interaction between the company and Ukraine be maintained? Or do we have some kind of integration?
…
Graefe : If the Federal Chancellor decides to go for it, then there must be an understanding that it will take six months just to produce the fastenings. Thirdly, theoretically we may be affected by the issue of training. I have already said that we are collaborating with a rocket manufacturer. They train in the maintenance of these systems, and we train in tactical use. It takes three to four months. This part of the training can take place in Germany. When the first missiles are delivered, we need to make quick decisions regarding mountings and training. We may have to turn to the British on these issues and take advantage of their know-how. We can transmit to them databases, satellite images, planning stations. Apart from the supplies of the missiles themselves, which we have, everything else can be supplied by industry or the IABG.
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
8 months to look at a target and say "hmm no that's a kindergarten, das no good", and another 6 months just to adapt the Taurus to the same interface as the Storm Shadow/Scalp. As if NATO standardization doesn't exist.
I'm really not sure if this is meant to discourage people from asking for Taurus deliveries, or encourage them to make the decision ASAP.
Anyway, this does not sound like a serious answer at all - rather just driven by some agenda. Someone driven by stress to perform doesn't need 8 months.
Larry_L
Active Member
I thought I had arrived at a good estimate on the number of A-50 aircraft, and the understanding that they were out of production. Fighter bomber recently posted what seems to be an addition to the fleet. Possibly this is one of the upgrades that just got completed? The gesstimate for me now stands at least 8 operational A-50U.
t.me
A translation via Google of the above. - "You understood correctly. The first part of my post yesterday has begun to be fulfilled. The ranks of the valiant Aerospace Forces of Russia were replenished with the new aircraft RLDNiU A-50U. Good morning Country!"
Ukraine is reporting that Rostec is considering starting to produce more of these aircraft. Presumably they would start by refurbishing some of the air frames that are currently non operational.
en.defence-ua.com
Fighterbomber
Вы правильно поняли. Первая часть моего вчерашнего поста начала выполнятся. Ряды доблестных Воздушно-Космических сил России пополнил новый самолет РЛДНиУ А-50У. Доброе утро, страна!
t.me
A translation via Google of the above. - "You understood correctly. The first part of my post yesterday has begun to be fulfilled. The ranks of the valiant Aerospace Forces of Russia were replenished with the new aircraft RLDNiU A-50U. Good morning Country!"
Ukraine is reporting that Rostec is considering starting to produce more of these aircraft. Presumably they would start by refurbishing some of the air frames that are currently non operational.
Rostec Wants to Resume Production of A‑50U AEW&C Systems But New Aircraft Won't Be Ready Any Soon, History Shows | Defense Express
Based on the data on A-50 production in the USSR and the later modernization of these aircraft to A-50U, we can assess the production rates of both
en.defence-ua.com
It's also my opinion. It doesn't take 8 months to produce adapted bolts to hold the Taurus under the wings. Maybe he means that the missiles will have to be modified with a special navigation system that will prevent it to strike Russia?
That would be stupid because if the agreement stipulates that it can't be fired on Russia, Ukrainians won't fire them at Russia. Germany can stop the deliveries if they do. Ukrainians know that and observe the rules because they don't want to lose the support from the West.
_____________________
Joseph Stalin said:
Now, I understand why Russians use the word "quality" (qualitshestva) when they mean quantity. Stalin changed the meaning of the word.Feanor said:
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #9,647
Someone who wants to finds a way. Someone who doesn't finds an excuse.
I suspect that after all this excitement we're just talking about rear end support personnel. Even then he got a pretty negative reaction from NATO allies.
EDIT: And here are Ukrainian sources passing off a video of burning grass as a downed Russian jet.
Colonelcassad
Видео, представленное нами, хохол уже пару часов разгоняет как сбитая сушка под Мариуполем. Наша редакция сразу же нашла исходное видео, датируемое 28 февраля, на котором проезжающий гражданин снимает подоженную траву (видео). Взяв паузу намеренно, мы в очередной раз доказываем две простые...
t.me
Last edited:
Larry_L
Active Member
Allegedly this post is a complete transcript of a conversation between German air force personnel. It is a long read, and if scripted, appears to be well done. The back story is that this was intercepted by the Russians who published it on social media. Consider that the original language was German, captured by Russians, and now appearing in English. It seems to be poor OPSEC to have this conversation in such a insecure manner. If true it gives insight into the issues involved in providing a precision missile that uses different protocols to what has been used previously. There is quite a bit of discussion on options to shorten the time needed to get from permission to deployment. There is some indication that Germany has confirmed this intercept.
www.pravda.com.ua
German Defence Ministry confirms that its Air Force officers’ conversation was intercepted
Germany’s Defence Ministry has reported that an internal conversation between German Air Force officers has been intercepted.
www.pravda.com.ua
Well, if the rear-end support personnel uploads the targeting information into the Shadow Storm/SCALP missiles, and the German officers are discussing how to best manage these rear end duties for Taurus, it just means that qualified non-Ukrainian officers are involved in the target selection and confirmation process.
That’s not much of a secret, I imagine, so a bit too much fuss about this intercept.
Ultimately, I do not think it matters much if the Brits or the Germans try to hit the Crimean bridge - they are both deeply committed to this war in any case.
The question is whether there is much difference in terms of Russian reaction if the bridge is hit with a Shadow Storm or a Taurus.
Frankly, I do not think there will be any. The Russians are very cautious in not triggering a wider conflict, and will not immediately hit a mainland German target in retaliation, definitely not now.
The Netherlands has now increased significantly and will now contribute 250 million EUR to purchasing ammo for Ukraine: Netherlands increases contribution for ammunition purchase for Ukraine to EUR 250M (ukrinform.net)
Belgium releases 200 million EURO to the same initiative: Belgium releases €200 million for ammunition to Ukraine (brusselstimes.com)
This, together with significant contributions from other EU countries means that we will soon see a significant increase in the ammo shipped to Ukraine. 15 EU countries ready to buy shells for Ukraine outside Europe | European Pravda (eurointegration.com.ua)
Hopefully this will be enough to help Ukraine survive until European ammo production start to really pick up pace!
vikingatespam
Well-Known Member
A video discussion of satellite imagery possibly indicating the entire active A-50 fleet is 4 or 5 aircraft.
No, that's not what he said. He basically said that with standard procedures it would take months to get things done. But with the resourcefulness of the Ukrainians and the experience the British could provide from the Stormshadow integration things could be done quicker.
Then it was mentioned that there could be 2 training lanes. Fast track or accuracy above 3 meters (enough for ammo depots) and a complete training for accuracy below those 3 meters to hit stuff like the pillars of the kerch bridge.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #9,653
Brief update. Ukraine has sent reinforcements into the fight and as a result the front line has mostly stabilized, with Russian advances reduced to the same inching forward as pre-Avdeevka. But the problem of Russian airpower remains unabated, and Russian forces are still gaining ground just slower. It remains to be seen if the reinforcements will get chewed up and the front line will start cracking again or if it will go back to last year's stalemate. I will try to put out an update post some time in the next couple of dates covering the relatively few changes that have taken place.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #9,655
Are they claiming the opposite? I haven't come across anything that indicates a reduction in strikes by volume. Have you? So far it seems that despite downings the last claims indicate a continued high volume of Russian strikes. As noted above, losses in Su-34s don't necessarily prevent strikes... many other platforms can carry UMPKs. But even if claimed Su-34 losses are correct, they aren't enough to prevent continued strikes. Either way, we have no evidence to support claimed downings.
KipPotapych
Active Member
This is consistent with other claims I saw as well. For example (via Google translate from Russian):
It is reported that a new A-50U has been transferred to the Aerospace Forces.
At the beginning of 2022, Russia had 22 Beriev A-50 aircraft.
- 8 airworthy A-50U - 47 RF-92957 - 10.2011, 33 RF-50602 - 04.2013, 37 RF-93966 - 04.2014, 41 RF-94268 - 05.2017, 45 RF-93952 - 12.2018, 42 RF -50610 - 05.2019, 43 RF-50608 - 12.2021, 51 RF-50606 - 09. 2023
- 2 shot down, 1 damaged. At least 1 of them is under repair in Taganrog.
- 1-2 flying laboratories.
- And eleven A-50s that were in storage at Severny. There are already 7 of them by 2024 - Танки. История и современность. Btvt.info. The removal of “carcasses” from the north suggests attempts to increase the rate of production.
Танки. История и современность. Btvt.info
Сообщается что в ВКС передан новый А-50У. В начале 2022 года, Россия располагала 22 самолетами Бериева А-50. - 8 годных к полетам A-50У - 47 RF-92957 - 10. 2011, 33 RF-50602 - 04. 2013, 37 RF-93966 - 04.2014, 41 RF-94268 - 05.2017, 45 RF-93952 - 12.2018, 42 RF-50610 - 05.2019, 43 RF-50608 -...
t.me
The video is based on the evidence I talked about in my previous post and I cited one of the people who provides ideas that are much more convincing and suggests it isn’t evidence at all. I agree that none of it is evidence of any aircraft being downed. It’s ridiculous. I also did a bit of looking of my own at the three crash sites shown and I am fairly convinced it is rubbish (I don’t have time to post any extensive posts at the moment, but may do so later).
Also, since then there was another RU jet downed with more “burning evidence” provided, this time live. It turned to be another dud. I was going to cite Deep State talking about it, but cannot find the post at the moment.
Here are a couple of links that explain what is happening and why there is plenty of “burning evidence” of RU aircraft being shot down in multiples:
Confronting the country’s burning crisis collectively
The tradition of using fire to clear land for agriculture has been used since humankind first gave up hunting and gathering to adopt a more settled existence around 12,000 years ago. It is not only the cheapest and fastest way to dispose of waste and to clear the land, it is also a traditional...
The season of burning grass has started again in Ukraine: what is the danger and what fines await
With the onset of warm weather, natural fires become a real disaster for the environment. In the spring, last year's grass dries quickly and easily ignites from a match, cigarette or any slightest spark. And it is at this time that residents of private residential buildings and cottages actively...
ecopolitic.com.ua
It happens in Canada too, but to a much lesser extent:
Do we have any evidence of a “roving Patriot battery”? In addition to those lost Ukrainian AD assets I cited in my previous post, I saw at least a couple more they allegedly lost since then. My own interpretation of these events is that they are grasping at straws to boost the morale, as well as to show that they are still capable/relevant with the limited resources they have at their disposal.
A recent article provides the following numbers for the available aircraft to both sides of the conflict:
At the beginning of 2022, Ukraine had 71 Su-27 and MiG-29 fighters, 14 Su-24M bombers, and 31 Su-25 attack aircraft, according to the annual Military Balance report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
The 2024 report says Ukraine has 78 combat capable aircraft. In the third year of the war, Russia has 1,169 such aircraft.
Since the start of the invasion, Slovakia and Poland have also transfered about 33 MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine — many with updated avionics and weapons to bring them up to NATO standards.
Diva jets: Why ‘sensitive’ F-16s will be hard work for Ukraine
The multi-role Western fighters will help Ukraine even the odds but it won’t be easy to use the “high maintenance” jets in wartime.
www.politico.eu
The Ukrainian numbers make sense. Oryx reports 80 being lost in the war. The report cited in the article leaves them with 10 more, but it probably doesn’t account for some that were lost and never reported (or lack of evidence to be recorded). Pretty sure we also previously discussed that some Migs and SUs were “sneaked in” from elsewhere and could very well be lost as well.
No idea about the Russian numbers. But overall I agree that the RU would have a lack of pilots problem way before they run out of aircraft.
these article go into details of a backing off connected to recent Russian aircraft losses
Russia's air force appears to be backing off after Ukraine said it shot down 15 planes in 2 weeks: ISW
Ukraine managed to take down 15 of Russia's combat jets in two weeks, according to Ukrainian officials.
www.businessinsider.in
Russia's air force appears to be backing off after Ukraine said it shot down 15 planes in 2 weeks, ISW says
Ukraine managed to take down 15 of Russia's combat jets in two weeks, Ukrainian officials said.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #9,658
Thanks for sharing. I was operating on social-media statements from what appeared to be Ukrainian service members in the field reporting continued heavy strikes. Here we have Ukrainian command claiming otherwise. Note what I saw was from a few days back and it appears this report refers to a reduction in operation that literally took place primarily over the weekend that just passed, so it might be a new development. Let's see if any corroboration emerges. As it stands we have Ukrainian officialdom claiming to have downed tons of Russian jets and Ukrainian officialdom claiming this has led to a decrease in strikes. Bomb strikes are fairly large and hard to hide, so if this is true we should be seeing some indication, and if it isn't true we should also be seeing some indication.these article go into details of a backing off connected to recent Russian aircraft losses
Russia's air force appears to be backing off after Ukraine said it shot down 15 planes in 2 weeks: ISW
Ukraine managed to take down 15 of Russia's combat jets in two weeks, according to Ukrainian officials.Russia's air force appears to be backing off after Ukraine said it shot down 15 planes in 2 weeks, ISW says
Ukraine managed to take down 15 of Russia's combat jets in two weeks, Ukrainian officials said.ca.news.yahoo.com
On a related note, during the fighting for Avdeevka Russian strikes peaked at over 100 drops per day in some cases. However the monthly average is closer to 50 and based on previous trends, Russia can't maintain 100 strikes per day. I think if we see the volume of strikes roll back from 100+ down to the 40-60 range, we can simply conclude that this is a return to more or less a return to normal levels of operation. If we see a reducing trend line on average daily strikes moving forward, that will be an indicator in something forcing a reduction in strikes.
KipPotapych
Active Member
Ukraine started using AASM Hammer bombs.
There was another drop in Avdiivka previously as well, at first reported by the RU as a JDAM strike, but later claimed to be an AASM as well. The French promised to deliver 50 of these per month according to the Telegram post above.
There was another drop in Avdiivka previously as well, at first reported by the RU as a JDAM strike, but later claimed to be an AASM as well. The French promised to deliver 50 of these per month according to the Telegram post above.
KipPotapych
Active Member
Russian reports indicate that another Black Sea vessel was lost:
t.me
The same ship, Sergei Kotov (project 22160), was attacked (and according to some UA reports hit) previously, back in the summer:
news.yahoo.com
Рыбарь
Ночью украинские формирования с помощью ракет, БПЛА и БЭКов пытались атаковать объекты в Крыму. Одной из целью был Крымский мост. С мостом все в порядке, атака была отбита. Однако все не так хорошо с целями БЭКов. Как верно написал товарищ Рыбарь, Украина после провалов на фронте несет большие...
t.me
The same ship, Sergei Kotov (project 22160), was attacked (and according to some UA reports hit) previously, back in the summer:
Ukraine attacks Russian patrol ship in Black Sea – Russia’s MoD claims
Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked Russia’s Sergei Kotov patrol ship with two unmanned boats, alleges the Russian Defense Ministry in a July 25 Telegram post.