The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Feanor]

A look at the 636.3 sub that was damaged in dock recently. I don't think it will be getting rebuilt. Though arguably it's the less significant loss, since Russia can and does mass produce the type (6 were built for the Black Sea Fleet, 6 for the Pacific, now more are on the way).

Colonelcassad

Противник опубликовал фото повреждений подводной лодки "Ростов-на-Дону" после удара в доке СМЗ в Севастополе. Лодке нанесен очень серьезный урон, восстановление ее маловероятно и даже если за это возьмутся, это будет весьма дорогостоящим предприятием. PS. Предупреждения ВКР видимо никого не...

t.me

 

[koxinga]

Background story on where those Pakistan Ordnance Factory shells are coming from.

U.S. Helped Pakistan Get IMF Bailout With Secret Arms Deal for Ukraine, Leaked Documents Reveal

The U.S.-brokered IMF loan let Pakistan’s military postpone elections, deepen a brutal crackdown, and jail former Prime Minister Imran Khan.

theintercept.com

 

[Ananda]

I keep wondering how big the limit of Russian Inland Waterways to move around Russian Warship bypass Turkiye Bosporus. As example this 11661 Frigate/Light Frigate that's now (picture is Dagestan) is the biggest naval ship class in Caspian Sea.

Means it is move to Caspian sea, through Inland Waterways. Thus as this is larger and has close to 6m Draught, theoretically SSK like Kilo or Lada can be move from North Sea through the cannals into Black Sea.

The information that available in public talk about draught of 3-4m, but 11661 has deeper draught than that. Is Russia because of this war already deepen their cannals for larger vessels traffics? Is the locks already enlarge?

 

[Feanor]

View attachment 50818

I keep wondering how big the limit of Russian Inland Waterways to move around Russian Warship bypass Turkiye Bosporus. As example this 11661 Frigate/Light Frigate that's now (picture is Dagestan) is the biggest naval ship class in Caspian Sea.

Means it is move to Caspian sea, through Inland Waterways. Thus as this is larger and has close to 6m Draught, theoretically SSK like Kilo or Lada can be move from North Sea through the cannals into Black Sea.

The information that available in public talk about draught of 3-4m, but 11661 has deeper draught than that. Is Russia because of this war already deepen their cannals for larger vessels traffics? Is the locks already enlarge?

Well... it's not a light frigate. It's a small missile ship that's mis-classified. Displacement of 1500 tonns, air defense comes mainly in the form of outdated SHORAD, minimal anti-submarine capabilities (the 11661K don't have RBUs or torpedo tubes), don't carry a helo. These things are weaker then a 20380/5 corvette. I don't know for a fact what their seaworthiness is like, but I suspect it isn't great. The Vietnamese variant, with torpedo tubes, Shtil'-1 SAM, and other improvements, can be considered a light corvette. But by no stretch of the imagination does this belong in the same class as a 22350 or (for example) a FREMM. Russian 11661Ks belong in the same category as the Buyan-M. A calm water missile barge with some added systems. They're not useless, especially when you consider the time period they were built, but they're very different from a frigate, no matter how light.

 

[Ananda]

It's a small missile ship that's mis-classified

Agree on that. I put Frigate and Light Frigate mostly following the classification that Russian Navy put. Still my thinking more on dimension on this compare to an SSK. The dimension is big enough compare to SSK (whether Kilo or Lada). Not the tonnage, but more to draught, length, and width.

This is what I'm more wondering, to viability of inland waterways to accommodate transfer of surface submarine on the cannals and locks. This is more to some assessments that Russian Black Sea fleet losses of Rostov-on-Don matter, due to Russia can't transfer replacement for that Kilo, through Bosporus.

Add:
Russian in early last decade also offering this to Indonesia as Parchim replacement. So yes, it is basically Corvette at most. Still the dimension that interesting for assessment on the capabilities of inland waterways traffic.

 

[swerve]

I read "bullying" as the other word Feanor used: pinpricks. He will prove me wrong.
The Taranto raid was an effective "pinprick", it didn't change the war; nor the raid in Alexandria.

They didn't change the overall outcome of the war, but they changed events in the short term.

 

[vikingatespam]

A look at the 636.3 sub that was damaged in dock recently. I don't think it will be getting rebuilt. Though arguably it's the less significant loss, since Russia can and does mass produce the type (6 were built for the Black Sea Fleet, 6 for the Pacific, now more are on the way).

Colonelcassad

Противник опубликовал фото повреждений подводной лодки "Ростов-на-Дону" после удара в доке СМЗ в Севастополе. Лодке нанесен очень серьезный урон, восстановление ее маловероятно и даже если за это возьмутся, это будет весьма дорогостоящим предприятием. PS. Предупреждения ВКР видимо никого не...

t.me

CovertShores and other have analyzed this, but the TLDR is - notice how some of the hull places are buckled outwards, indicating an internal explosion. The sub is probably junk. Have fun getting that out of drydock.

 

[Larry_L]

Russian in early last decade also offering this to Indonesia as Parchim replacement. So yes, it is basically Corvette at most. Still the dimension that interesting for assessment on the capabilities of inland waterways traffic.

I was curious about the canals also, and copied this route from Severodvinsk to Moscow.

"Getting that Kilo to BSF tho would be some task. Black sea is closed so the Moscow canal have to be used but dunno how much capacity is there to deliver an entire submarine there.

It is pain to conduct. But during soviet times, the whole thing was build with such capability in mind. Doubt that there is some difference with Kilo. I do know that there is submarine/museum Б-396 "Новосибирский комсомолец" that was towed from

-> White Sea - >White Sea-Baltic Canal -> Lake Onega -> Volga-Baltic Canal -> Rybinsk Reservoir -> Moscow Canal -> Khimki Reservoir. And now sit in the center of Moscow and I suppose it is easier to the south because river are wider. And moving fleet from the Caspian Sea to the Black Sea using Volga-Don channel are regular exercise."

 

[Larry_L]

Donald Hill is standing in for Tom Cooper today. There are many links with some commentary. He covers both sides somewhat, but focuses mostly on the Russian losses. The links are mainly from twitter with a few others. I don't even have time to check out all these links today. I will have to go back another time to get a good overview so I can "read between the lines". This is in 3 parts.

Don's Weekly, 18 September 2023, Part 1

Hello everybody!

xxtomcooperxx.substack.com

Don's Weekly, 18 September 2023, Part 2

Kherson

xxtomcooperxx.substack.com

Don's Weekly, 18 September 2023, Part 3

 

[Ananda]

Getting that Kilo to BSF tho would be some task. Black sea is closed so the Moscow canal have to be used but dunno how much capacity is there to deliver an entire submarine there.

Yes that route is also where most the locks in waterways system located.

Russian Government Releases Report on Inland Waterways

The Russian Government has submitted its report on the development of inland water transport and maritime activities over the recent 6 years. According to the report published on the PortNews website, the capacity of transshipment facilities at seaports has increased by 24.4% to 1,053.3 million tonn

www.dredgingtoday.com

This is the latest report that I can find that talk on Russian effort to dredging the waterways to increase the capacities.

Video from Kazakhstan Petrochemical that shown their efforts to transport large Petrochemical equipment in Inland waterways (south part) from black sea to caspian.

It is shown even in the trickiest part of waterways system, basically Russian already increase the depth to enable larger and heavier equipment to move. Those barges even with shallow drought, but with that heavy bulk weight to transport, I do see will go down considerably near bottom of waterways.

So the question seems how far the work that Russian has done recently on enlarging the locks and deepening the waterways. Just seems from this reports, moving SSK like Kilo along the waterways is doable. They are capable on moving larger corvetes in waterways, which should make them capable moving SSK like Kilo or Lada from white sea to black sea.

If that's true, then the assessment from some western pundits on Russia can't move more submarine to black sea because Turkey close Bosporus, is moot. This is also shown why Russia will fight for control of Azov and Crimea.

 

[KipPotapych]

Note that Ukrainian official position is still the Russian S-300 missile lost in Poland. That, in turn, and by the way, should cast doubt on any claimed Russian S-300 strike anywhere in the country. Has any of the proper and verifiable sources suggested that?

Well, New York Times is strongly suggesting that the latest “Russian” strike on Konstatinovka market was a Ukrainian missile:

Evidence Suggests Ukrainian Missile Caused Market Tragedy (Published 2023)

Witness accounts and an analysis of video and weapon fragments suggest a Ukrainian missile failed to hit its intended target and landed in a bustling street, with devastating consequences.

www.nytimes.com

The Sept. 6 missile strike on Kostiantynivka in eastern Ukraine was one of the deadliest in the country in months, killing at least 15 civilians and injuring more than 30 others. The weapon’s payload of metal fragments struck a market, piercing windows and walls and wounding some victims beyond recognition.

Less than two hours later, President Volodymyr Zelensky blamed Russian “terrorists” for the attack, and many media outlets followed suit.[…]

But evidence collected and analyzed by The New York Times, including missile fragments, satellite imagery, witness accounts and social media posts, strongly suggests the catastrophic strike was the result of an errant Ukrainian air defense missile fired by a Buk launch system.

I doubt we will ever find out who fired what and where, but I think the details would likely be quite a surprise to some. I can predict probably with a fairly high degree of certainty what the Ukrainian reaction will be to the article cited above.

 

[Vanquish]

Well, New York Times is strongly suggesting that the latest “Russian” strike on Konstatinovka market was a Ukrainian missile:

Evidence Suggests Ukrainian Missile Caused Market Tragedy (Published 2023)

Witness accounts and an analysis of video and weapon fragments suggest a Ukrainian missile failed to hit its intended target and landed in a bustling street, with devastating consequences.

www.nytimes.com

The Sept. 6 missile strike on Kostiantynivka in eastern Ukraine was one of the deadliest in the country in months, killing at least 15 civilians and injuring more than 30 others. The weapon’s payload of metal fragments struck a market, piercing windows and walls and wounding some victims beyond recognition.

Less than two hours later, President Volodymyr Zelensky blamed Russian “terrorists” for the attack, and many media outlets followed suit.[…]

But evidence collected and analyzed by The New York Times, including missile fragments, satellite imagery, witness accounts and social media posts, strongly suggests the catastrophic strike was the result of an errant Ukrainian air defense missile fired by a Buk launch system.

I doubt we will ever find out who fired what and where, but I think the details would likely be quite a surprise to some. I can predict probably with a fairly high degree of certainty what the Ukrainian reaction will be to the article cited above.

I know what my rection would be if I was Ukrainian. If only Russia hadn't started a war by invading a sovereign nation therein causing the deaths both directly and indirectly of thousands of Ukrainians.

 

[Feanor]

I know what my rection would be if I was Ukrainian. If only Russia hadn't started a war by invading a sovereign nation therein causing the deaths both directly and indirectly of thousands of Ukrainians.

Sure. Collateral damage caused by Russia is Russia's fault. Collateral damage caused by Ukraine, no matter how careless or indiscriminate, is also Russia's fault. That's a convenient position. If only Ukraine hadn't been taken over by right wing extremists following an illegitimate coup d'etat in '14, Russia wouldn't have been forced to intervene. See? I can do it too. From where I sit, this doesn't fly. "If not but for" doesn't work. If Lenin hadn't given Ukraine independence, and instead kept it as part of the RSFSR, Ukraine wouldn't exist as a country. So Ukraine should be very grateful to the Soviet Union. If south-Ruthenian dukedoms hadn't fallen under the sway of Poland... If Gaius Marius hadn't managed to exterminate the Teutons... If Neanderthal Grok hadn't clubbed Neanderthal Glug... personally I blame the amoebas. If they hadn't lost the evolutionary fight to multicellular organisms, none of these problems would exist.

 

[Vanquish]

Sure. Collateral damage caused by Russia is Russia's fault. Collateral damage caused by Ukraine, no matter how careless or indiscriminate, is also Russia's fault. That's a convenient position. If only Ukraine hadn't been taken over by right wing extremists following an illegitimate coup d'etat in '14, Russia wouldn't have been forced to intervene. See? I can do it too. From where I sit, this doesn't fly. "If not but for" doesn't work. If Lenin hadn't given Ukraine independence, and instead kept it as part of the RSFSR, Ukraine wouldn't exist as a country. So Ukraine should be very grateful to the Soviet Union. If south-Ruthenian dukedoms hadn't fallen under the sway of Poland... If Gaius Marius hadn't managed to exterminate the Teutons... If Neanderthal Grok hadn't clubbed Neanderthal Glug... personally I blame the amoebas. If they hadn't lost the evolutionary fight to multicellular organisms, none of these problems would exist.

My point is very simple admittedly, but the way I look at it is that a Ukrainian air defense missile wouldn't have inadvertently fallen and killed innocent civilians if not for trying to protect said civilians from Russian aggression in the first place.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

My point is very simple admittedly, but the way I look at it is that a Ukrainian air defense missile wouldn't have inadvertently fallen and killed innocent civilians if not for trying to protect said civilians from Russian aggression in the first place.

Russia is indeed the invading country, but it is still wrong to tell the world that a tragic case of collateral damage caused by an own mistake was a deliberately terrorist attack on innocent civilians by Russia.

Its the same as the Afghan/Iraki/Lybian/Panama/Serbian/Syrian blame the Americans for civilian casualties while its caused by one of their own missiles.

 

[d-ron84]

Sure. Collateral damage caused by Russia is Russia's fault. Collateral damage caused by Ukraine, no matter how careless or indiscriminate, is also Russia's fault. That's a convenient position. If only Ukraine hadn't been taken over by right wing extremists following an illegitimate coup d'etat in '14, Russia wouldn't have been forced to intervene. See? I can do it too. From where I sit, this doesn't fly. "If not but for" doesn't work. If Lenin hadn't given Ukraine independence, and instead kept it as part of the RSFSR, Ukraine wouldn't exist as a country. So Ukraine should be very grateful to the Soviet Union. If south-Ruthenian dukedoms hadn't fallen under the sway of Poland... If Gaius Marius hadn't managed to exterminate the Teutons... If Neanderthal Grok hadn't clubbed Neanderthal Glug... personally I blame the amoebas. If they hadn't lost the evolutionary fight to multicellular organisms, none of these problems would exist.

And yet Russia is the one who invaded another sovereign nation, both in 2014 and 2022, so your arguments are pretty poor.

 

[Vanquish]

Russia is indeed the invading country, but it is still wrong to tell the world that a tragic case of collateral damage caused by an own mistake was a deliberately terrorist attack on innocent civilians by Russia.

Its the same as the Afghan/Iraki/Lybian/Panama/Serbian/Syrian blame the Americans for civilian casualties while its caused by one of their own missiles.

Perhaps, but in the aftermath of the tragic event, the Ukrainians might not have been able to identify immediately whose missile it was. I'm not of the opinion that Ukraine owes Russia an apology.

 

[Egede]

And yet Russia is the one who invaded another sovereign nation, both in 2014 and 2022, so your arguments are pretty poor.

Russia is not alone in invading and bombing other countries but for some reason u forget all of that. Where are the sanctions for what NATO done to Libya? Or you’re so happy how Libya turned out to be? So tell me, if the US can bomb and invade, why not Russia? Türkiye can invade Syria or Iraq when ever they feel horny, Saudi Arabia can bomb the hell out of Yemen because they protecting their interest but Russia can’t. US can just turn up in Syria and start bombing the Government of the country and all this is fine with u guys then u expect Russia to listen to you. Honestly you need to put on a neutral hat to see how laughable this is becoming

You are permanently banned for trolling.

Ngatimozart

 

[Redshift]

Russia is not alone in invading and bombing other countries but for some reason u forget all of that. Where are the sanctions for what NATO done to Libya? Or you’re so happy how Libya turned out to be? So tell me, if the US can bomb and invade, why not Russia? Türkiye can invade Syria or Iraq when ever they feel horny, Saudi Arabia can bomb the hell out of Yemen because they protecting their interest but Russia can’t. US can just turn up in Syria and start bombing the Government of the country and all this is fine with u guys then u expect Russia to listen to you. Honestly you need to put on a neutral hat to see how laughable this is becoming

Are you from London?

 

[Ananda]

West Invading another nation:
It is a just cause for democracy and human rights protection.

Non West Invading another Nation:
It is barbaric action that destroy innocent civilians.

Russia is not alone in invading and bombing other countries but for some reason u forget all of that.

If you argue with those who have that western 'truth' bias thinking as I put above. Then it is going to be useless arguments. It is an arguments that will not end, as everyone has their own bias anyway.

It is depend on each side going to spin it and defend each sides own 'truth'. Those who doesn't want to get involved, then stay away and sit in the fences. Let those who fights pounching each other until one sides or both sides exhausted.

That's call war of attrition, which this war already become since May last year. In sense it is like school yard fight. Those who has interest will get involved, while the rest of school watch from fences/sides until whatever ends results.