Russia - General Discussion.

[Vivendi]

Quick update on the impact the Russian-Ukranian war has had so far:

Germany, Belgium, Romania, Italy, Poland, Norway, Spain, and Sweden have all announced defense budget increases.
Seven European nations have increased defense budgets in one month.
Spanish government to increase defence budget – EURACTIV.com


More than 450 companies have either left Russia, scaled back, or stopped investing:

Over 400 Companies Have Withdrawn from Russia—But Some Remain | Yale School of Management

French giant Total will stop buying Russian oil: French energy giant Total to stop buying Russian oil - CBS News


As mentioned previously both Sweden and Finland polls show that for the first time in history there is now a majority supporting NATO membership in both countries. Finland has had 3 polls since the invasion in February, and all indicate around 60% in favor, increasing to around 70% if Sweden decides to join. I have so far seen only one poll from Sweden -- not sure if I missed the others, or if for some reason Sweden has not conducted any more polls.

Slightly OT, but Vietnam Airlines will stop flight to Russia on 25 March, to "review procedures and regulations related to aircraft insurance and flight operations to Russia." Not sure what this actually means. Vietnam Airlines suspends flights to Moscow as Ukraine fighting intensifies - VnExpress International

Thailand is having problems sending fruit and vegetables to Russia, since the freight companies relied on leased planes from companies affected by sanctions: Thailand’s export of fruit and vegetables to Russia grounded by sanctions | Inquirer News

 

[Ananda]

European Union unlikely to impose an oil embargo on Russia, sources say

The European Union is unlikely to impose an immediate oil embargo on Russia over its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, according to two CNBC sources with knowledge of the discussions.

www.cnbc.com

Euro Zone decision to full embargo Russian Hydrocarbon, again will always depend on their abilities finding alrernatives. Biden can say what he wants, but US can jack up their own production to compensate their own Russian import (which percentage wise is relatively small anyway). However not same thing with many in Euro Zone.

US try to coerce OPEC to increase their production, but got cold shoulder from Saudi's and UAE. In the end market talk, because market invisible hand is impartial.

 

[John Fedup]

Interesting observation about freight restrictions. Most news about airlines suspending operations to Russia and one usually only thinks about passengers. Air freight for perishable goods is very important and this reduced capacity is another significant negative for Putin.

 

[Capt. Ironpants]

European Union unlikely to impose an oil embargo on Russia, sources say

The European Union is unlikely to impose an immediate oil embargo on Russia over its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, according to two CNBC sources with knowledge of the discussions.

www.cnbc.com

Euro Zone decision to full embargo Russian Hydrocarbon, again will always depend on their abilities finding alrernatives. Biden can say what he wants, but US can jack up their own production to compensate their own Russian import (which percentage wise is relatively small anyway). However not same thing with many in Euro Zone.

US try to coerce OPEC to increase their production, but got cold shoulder from Saudi's and UAE. In the end market talk, because market invisible hand is impartial.

What is your take on the recent US threats to impose economic sanctions on China if they support Russia? The US has just announced visa restrictions on some Chinese officials as a response human rights abuses against the Uyghurs.

U.S. sanctions officials in China over persecution of Uyghurs and other minorities

Beijing threatened to impose tit-for-tat sanctions on U.S. officials after Antony Blinken called on China to end the "ongoing genocide" against the Uyghur people.

www.cbsnews.com

Apparently, Thailand and Indonesia a bit spooked:

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Yes, the link looks goofy, but it seems to work.

If the Biden administration actually goes through with this ... I'm no expert on economics, but I see very bad times ahead. Surely they would not go this far? If not, this is hardly a good time for making empty threats against China, either. I am rather appalled. Not that I have any love for the Chinese communists -- I certainly don't.

 

[STURM]

The US has just announced visa restrictions on some Chinese officials as a response human rights abuses against the Uyghurs.

The first thing which comes to mind is that it's politically symbolic but that's it. The Chinese won't be bothered and they'll continue doing what they are doing. The second things is what does the U.S. plan to do apart from the visa restrictions?

If the Biden administration actually goes through with this ... I'm no expert on economics, but I see very bad times ahead. Surely they would not go this far?

Who knows what they're thinking? The perspective from the Oval Office could be very different from how things actually are in the real world. One thing's for sure; the U.S. shouldn't be going around making enemies with both Russia and China at the same time.

 

[Ananda]

your take on the recent US threats to impose economic sanctions on China if they support Russia

I don't get on some of Biden diplomacy lately. Sometimes I think even the eratic Trump has more clearer aim.

For one thing in the matter of Global Trade, China is different thing then Russia. US got huge deficit with China. Means US domestic demand reliance on China made goods is much higher. Whose going to provide alternative to China goods ? Even getting rid off Russian Hydrocarbon from Western economies will take time, getting rid off China made goods will be much substantials. Which means much more inflationary pressure. Control Inflation always a good thing, run off inlation always bad thing.

Some US companies already move their production chain from China, however many still maintain their production chain in China. Why? well like it or not as Production line, China provide more effecient production ecosystem right now. You can move your factory to other country from China, but does not mean you can bring also all your production ecosystem altogether. In short China is like one stop super chain for production cycle.

China products is also no longer cheap goods that many still thinks (even in US media). Even some US defense contractor being found out using China made parts. Could they be replace ? Off course, however it will take much longer time then 'say' replacing Russian Hydrocarbons and other resources. That's bring to second issue,

Secondly, whose going to follow ? US main weapons in trade war actually the thing that make them still going strong today. USD and their Financial market. Many non western market now already in jittery when they see US and West using their currency as political weapon, thus begin to find other way to circumstances US and Western financial system. I have put in this thread and other, US and their allies sanction will not put all off others to stop trading with Russia.

That's Russia, imagine if China. Being second largest economy in the world means China also have big clout in Global economy, eventough still smaller than US. However biggest US clout in Global economy is actualy their financial system and most importantly, the all mighty USD.

If they block SWIFT and USD from China trade, people that still want to trade with China will move to CIPS and Yuan. Just present Russian financial sanctions already make some traders find alternative of USD, Euro, Yen etc to trade with Russia, blocking China will definetely creating alternative financial systems much faster. That will not benefit US on longer term.

I stop in to this two thing for now. I can go on to other repurcusion if the biggest global economy want to sanction the second biggest economy. However for sake of this thread lest's stop in two.

Off course China can be hurt by US sanctions, but also US. Again, Trade war works both ways. Remember US economy now in inflationary pressure. Many market analysts already projected Russian war in Ukraine can add some basis points on that. Do Bidden want to multiple that significantly with another Trade war with China ?

I don't think even the democrats want to support Biden on that. Even now the mid term elections already predict by many US Political Analyst to swing back to Republican. If Biden escalate the trade war with China, well Trump can say 2024: "America I'm back". Don't think any democrats wants that.

So by Market logic, Biden should not even touch that move. US economy need recovery from Covid, now facing potential another reccesion threat, if the inflation can not be put under control. Making Trade war with China will put certainty on that.

So just like Sturm put, I still see Biden will escalate on symbolic diplomatic war. Not another full blown trade war, like his administration did with Russia.

 

[Vivendi]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Yes, the link looks goofy, but it seems to work.

If the Biden administration actually goes through with this ... I'm no expert on economics, but I see very bad times ahead. Surely they would not go this far? If not, this is hardly a good time for making empty threats against China, either. I am rather appalled. Not that I have any love for the Chinese communists -- I certainly don't.

From the link above:

During a call last week with Marsudi, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi denounced the use of unilateral sanctions and called on Indonesia to use its G-20 presidency to remove “disruptions.”

China has often expressed a strong negative view on the use of sanctions. This is very funny since China use this tool extensively themselves, here are some examples:

In October 2010, the Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded the Nobel peace prize to Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo. The Chinese government responded by freezing political and economic relations with Norway, introducing sanctions against imports of fish and other products, and limiting diplomatic interaction.

Too big to fault? Effects of the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize on Norwegian exports to China and foreign policy (cmi.no)

A Chinese official has openly declared that Beijing has singled out Australia for economic punishment, saying the federal government cannot profit from China while "smearing" it.
China's government has hit several Australian industries with economic sanctions, imposing hefty tariffs on Australian barley and wine exports while throwing up barriers to several other products including timber, lobster and coal.

Chinese official declares Beijing has targeted Australian goods as economic punishment - ABC News

Beijing vowed to punish the Swedish telecom giant Ericsson if the Swedes didn’t relent and allow the country’s 5G networks to include Huawei technology. Sweden didn’t budge, and now China has reduced Ericsson’s access to the world’s largest telecom market.

How Do You Stop Beijing From Bullying? Take Away Its Prada Bags - WSJ

In December 2021, Vilnius was temporarily removed from China’s customs clearance system. Earlier that year, Beijing stopped direct China-Lithuanian freight trains. It also closed credit lines for Lithuanian companies and blocked imports of existing orders from China.

Vilnius didn’t change its stance, even when China downgraded diplomatic ties with Lithuania to chargé d’affaires level, forcing the Lithuanian ambassador to return home.

Beijing then applied a different, stronger kind of pressure. It warned multinational companies, European and otherwise, to reduce their investments in Lithuania and stop sourcing supplies in the country. Beijing even threatened to retaliate against these companies’ operations in China—a well-tested policy aimed at playing EU member states off against each other.

China’s Bullying of Lithuania Spurs European Unity - Carnegie Europe - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Sorry for the OT...

 

[Capt. Ironpants]

The first thing which comes to mind is that it's politically symbolic but that's it. The Chinese won't be bothered and they'll continue doing what they are doing. The second things is what does the U.S. plan to do apart from the visa restrictions?



Who knows what they're thinking? The perspective from the Oval Office could be very different from how things actually are in the real world. One thing's for sure; the U.S. shouldn't be going around making enemies with both Russia and China at the same time.

Yes, I agree on the visa restriction "sanctions" -- no biggie. The only reason I mentioned it was the Chinese (and Thailand and
Indonesia) commented how the US tends to escalate sanctions, and therefore the Biden administration may well be serious about the threatened economic sanctions. Agree with your last statement!

I don't get on some of Biden diplomacy lately. Sometimes I think even the eratic Trump has more clearer aim.

For one thing in the matter of Global Trade, China is different thing then Russia. US got huge deficit with China. Means US domestic demand reliance on China made goods is much higher. Whose going to provide alternative to China goods ? Even getting rid off Russian Hydrocarbon from Western economies will take time, getting rid off China made goods will be much substantials. Which means much more inflationary pressure. Control Inflation always a good thing, run off inlation always bad thing.

Some US companies already move their production chain from China, however many still maintain their production chain in China. Why? well like it or not as Production line, China provide more effecient production ecosystem right now. You can move your factory to other country from China, but does not mean you can bring also all your production ecosystem altogether. In short China is like one stop super chain for production cycle.

China products is also no longer cheap goods that many still thinks (even in US media). Even some US defense contractor being found out using China made parts. Could they be replace ? Off course, however it will take much longer time then 'say' replacing Russian Hydrocarbons and other resources. That's bring to second issue,

Secondly, whose going to follow ? US main weapons in trade war actually the thing that make them still going strong today. USD and their Financial market. Many non western market now already in jittery when they see US and West using their currency as political weapon, thus begin to find other way to circumstances US and Western financial system. I have put in this thread and other, US and their allies sanction will not put all off others to stop trading with Russia.

That's Russia, imagine if China. Being second largest economy in the world means China also have big clout in Global economy, eventough still smaller than US. However biggest US clout in Global economy is actualy their financial system and most importantly, the all mighty USD.

If they block SWIFT and USD from China trade, people that still want to trade with China will move to CIPS and Yuan. Just present Russian financial sanctions already make some traders find alternative of USD, Euro, Yen etc to trade with Russia, blocking China will definetely creating alternative financial systems much faster. That will not benefit US on longer term.

I stop in to this two thing for now. I can go on to other repurcusion if the biggest global economy want to sanction the second biggest economy. However for sake of this thread lest's stop in two.

Off course China can be hurt by US sanctions, but also US. Again, Trade war works both ways. Remember US economy now in inflationary pressure. Many market analysts already projected Russian war in Ukraine can add some basis points on that. Do Bidden want to multiple that significantly with another Trade war with China ?

I don't think even the democrats want to support Biden on that. Even now the mid term elections already predict by many US Political Analyst to swing back to Republican. If Biden escalate the trade war with China, well Trump can say 2024: "America I'm back". Don't think any democrats wants that.

So by Market logic, Biden should not even touch that move. US economy need recovery from Covid, now facing potential another reccesion threat, if the inflation can not be put under control. Making Trade war with China will put certainty on that.

So just like Sturm put, I still see Biden will escalate on symbolic diplomatic war. Not another full blown trade war, like his administration did with Russia.

Thank you so much for your excellent explanation. It's very helpful to me. I can't imagine they would take it all the way to blocking SWIFT and USD, but meant something much milder. Still, it's troubling they would announce this economic sanctions business over Chinese-Russian relations now. China has seriously offered to be a mediator in the Russia-Ukraine war, and I suppose that has some American noses out of joint, but there are better means to counter that than threatening economic sanctions. I hope you are right and they will stick with symbolic diplomatic measures.

I don't want to get into American politics, but sometimes I think the Chinese have a point about about our democracy. (The upper ranks tend to think democracy is not so hot, as in "how do they keep electing such stupid leaders?", and consider their form of meritocracy far superior.) Even so, I do prefer to live in a democratic constitutional republic! As Churchill once famously said, "Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others."

From the link above:


China has often expressed a strong negative view on the use of sanctions. This is very funny since China use this tool extensively themselves, here are some examples:

Too big to fault? Effects of the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize on Norwegian exports to China and foreign policy (cmi.no)

Chinese official declares Beijing has targeted Australian goods as economic punishment - ABC News

How Do You Stop Beijing From Bullying? Take Away Its Prada Bags - WSJ

China’s Bullying of Lithuania Spurs European Unity - Carnegie Europe - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Sorry for the OT...

Good points and I learned a lot from you, as well as from @Ananda. Thank you for this. Yes, hypocritical.

I'll stop there as I don't want to derail the thread any further. This subject was not entirely OT, as the threatened sanctions against China are over the Russia-Ukraine war and represent a widening of the trade war with global repercussions. Surely Ananda is correct and the Biden administration will stick to simply no-big-deal diplomatic measures. I thought it rather disturbing economic sanctions were even brought up.

 

[danonz]

Looks like the Europeans will have a week before they have to pay for Russian gas exports in Rubles.
Putin has give his central bank one week to put a process in place for them to buy them.

Not sure if this will stick there have talks for while, but if it does.. how much of an impact will it have on USD, Euro and world trade for that matter, if other countries start moving away from the USD.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506642880919740416

Putin wants 'unfriendly' countries to pay for Russian gas in roubles

Russia will seek payment in roubles for gas sold to "unfriendly" countries, President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday, and European gas prices soared on concerns the move would exacerbate the region's energy crunch.

www.reuters.com

Putin wants rubles for Russian gas

Unfriendly countries will pay for natural gas in rubles, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on Wednesday.

www.rt.com

 

[kiwipatriot69]

Looks like the Europeans will have a week before they have to pay for Russian gas exports in Rubles.
Putin has give his central bank one week to put a process in place for them to buy them.

Not sure if this will stick there have talks for while, but if it does.. how much of an impact will it have on USD, Euro and world trade for that matter, if other countries start moving away from the USD.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506642880919740416

Putin wants 'unfriendly' countries to pay for Russian gas in roubles

Russia will seek payment in roubles for gas sold to "unfriendly" countries, President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday, and European gas prices soared on concerns the move would exacerbate the region's energy crunch.

www.reuters.com

Putin wants rubles for Russian gas

Unfriendly countries will pay for natural gas in rubles, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on Wednesday.

www.rt.com

Considering how worthless the rouble has become over the last month he won't get much.

 

[Capt. Ironpants]

Considering how worthless the rouble has become over the last month he won't get much.

It does serve to prop up the poor worthless ruble, though. It rose by about 10% against the USD today after the announcement, may have fallen back some later in the day (not sure) since the uptick.

Putin demands payment for Russian gas in roubles

Vladimir Putin is forcing European nations to choose between propping up the rouble or cutting their lifeline to Russian gas.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[OPSSG]

It does serve to prop up the poor worthless ruble, though. It rose by about 10% against the USD today after the announcement, may have fallen back some later in the day (not sure) since the uptick.

1. This Russian ploy to prop up the ruble may not work. Most long-term Russian gas contracts are denominated in euros. German Economy Minister Robert Habeck called Putin's demand a breach of contract & other buyers of Russian gas echoed the point. This is not something Putin’s Russia can decide to change on his own.

2. Russian gas accounts for some 40% of Europe's total consumption. EU gas imports from Russia in 2022 have fluctuated between 200 million to 800 million euros (US$880 million) a day.

3. The European Commission has said it plans to cut EU dependency on Russian gas by 2/3s by end of 2022. When Putin makes a mistake like this, Europe will flex down their buy of Russian gas (under their existing contracts), sooner rather than later.

4. In gas markets, eastbound gas flows via the Yamal-Europe pipeline from Germany to Poland declined sharply, data from the Gascade pipeline operator showed.

5. Russia’s attempt to seek payment in roubles for gas sold to "unfriendly" countries will ultimately fail, because such a demand is a breach of contract. All the Europeans have to do is to ignore the demand (as it’s not in accordance to the terms of existing gas contracts). As a side note, buyers of Henry hub price indexed LNG will now jump for joy.

6. What can Putin do? Turn off the gas? That’s ideal — contracts for gas in Europe will just declare force majeure for downstream contracts. As a plus, it will also be a Russian breach of contract (upstream) and the Europeans can claim damages, while switching away from Russia as a gas supply source by end 2022 — well at least by 2/3s. Germany was engineering a soft landing for Putin in these long term gas contracts, instead the idiot Putin speeded up the process of making Russia less relevant.

7. This will impact spot prices for LNG, as cargoes of Middle East and African LNG get diverted to European hubs. It’s more like a system hick-up. It will not kill the system.

8. This means Gasprom will move from a supplier of 40% of European Gas to 12% of European Gas by end 2022. Putin obviously does not understand gas and LNG contracts along with its interplay with spot LNG prices.

9. Currency markets (fx) will react but they don’t understand gas contracts and the concept of flex under these contracts. Fx traders are not privy to the actual terms of the gas contracts — they are jumping the gun, with a speculative play. This is a big gamble by some Fx traders, which they will lose (if they are betting the ruble will rise).

10. Long term gas contracts often have a ‘take or pay’ mechanism — if a buyer flexes down too much, they have to pay for gas not taken in that year. When the European Commission says it plans to cut EU dependency on Russian gas, it is recognising these contract structures.

 

[Ananda]

does serve to prop up the poor worthless ruble, though. It rose by about 10% against the USD today after the announcement, may have fallen back some later in the day (not sure) since the uptick.

I already talk with some traders, and we agree this is less likely Putin motives for effort to prop up Ruble exchange rate. By getting Euro's from existing contract can put those Euro's on the Russian reserve. Which can be used to paid back some Russian bonds payment. That's already prop up Ruble in the market. So if only for propping up Ruble, Russian don't need to do this.

Rubles for gas: Putin trolls the West over its energy addiction

We suspect this's Putin's way to force Euro zone to do counter trade with Russia. The article in Politico put one point, Euro zone don't have Ruble reserve. So the only way they can get Ruble to pay Russian Gas is for them to sell something to Russia, in exchange for Euro they are going to use to pay the Gas.

Mind you it is only our speculations on Russian possible motives to do this. This's perhaps Russian motive to force Euro Zone, if you want my goods then we trade outside your market mechanism. Just Politico put, this's the way to force Euro Zone to circumstances their own sanction to Russia.

As a plus, it will also be a Russian breach of contract (upstream) and the Europeans can claim damages, while switching away from Russia as a gas supply source by end 2022 — well at least by 2/3s. Germany was engineering a soft landing for Putin in these long term gas contracts, instead the idiot Putin speeded up the process of making Russia less relevant.

At this stage any commercial contracts basically can be call void by each other sides. Russian can also call the Western sanctions also breach some contracts from Investment to trade as the sanction also can be seen breach some existing contracts hold by Russian buyers from Western suppliers.

This is Trade War anyway, and multiples commercial contracts will be breaches as consequences.

All of it will be back on Euro Zone will to substitute Russian goods especially their Hydrocarbons. Euro can get other Gas. They can sources it from Qatar or other sources in middle East or Africa. Yes they can go to spot market on getting more Gas to replace Russian ones.

However it will cost them more. Shipping LNG cost more then piping gas from Russia. Russia also taking big gamble on this move, as they are also not yet getting new customers to replace Euro Zone.

In a way this is like 'Chicken' game, whoever blink first will follow others term. Or they can crash each other and both paying the prices.

 

[ngatimozart]

German Coordinator For Transatlantic Relations speaks here about the German reliance upon Russian energy and steps being taken to stop using Russian energy.

 

[Ananda]

Transatlantic Relations speaks here about the German reliance upon Russian energy and steps being taken to stop using Russian energy.

Euro Zone will have to find new energy suppliers and Russia will have to find new buyers. Whatever the result of the War in the ground, will not matter much, as too much bad blood (on commercial trust) from each other to do the business as usual.

There will be some shifting in the energy market. Euro Zone will get some new suppliers, no doubt about that. The shift I suspect will also means some Suppliers will take some of their Hydrocarbons to Euro Zone (due to better pricing that Euro Zone willing to make) from existing customers (I suspect mostly in Asia). Those other customers then will try to sources from other suppliers, with big probability Russia as one of them.

One thing for sure in my mind, Euro will pay more margin from new suppliers and Russia will charge discount to gain new customers. This will happen for at least one or two years, until all the adjustment can be sort out.

 

[ngatimozart]

I

Euro Zone will have to find new energy suppliers and Russia will have to find new buyers. Whatever the result of the War in the ground, will not matter much, as too much bad blood (on commercial trust) from each other to do the business as usual.

There will be some shifting in the energy market. Euro Zone will get some new suppliers, no doubt about that. The shift I suspect will also means some Suppliers will take some of their Hydrocarbons to Euro Zone (due to better pricing that Euro Zone willing to make) from existing customers (I suspect mostly in Asia). Those other customers then will try to sources from other suppliers, with big probability Russia as one of them.

One thing for sure in my mind, Euro will pay more margin from new suppliers and Russia will charge discount to gain new customers. This will happen for at least one or two years, until all the adjustment can be sort out.

I read something the other day that Germany has done a deal with Qatar for LNG. So they'll be building LNG infra struct at German ports, I presume.

Germany seals gas deal with Qatar to reduce dependence on Russia | Oil and Gas News | Al Jazeera

 

[Ananda]

So they'll be building LNG infra struct at German ports, I presume.

They have to. If they want to switch from Russian pipe gas to LNG, they have to build it ASAP. It will cost them more not just in infrastructure, but also the transportation costs.

Potentially they also have to rely more on their coal. It is dirty, but it is their own coal. I don't know how the acceleration transition to Green Energy will be done (as EU President talk), unless they reintroduce Nuclear.

If Euro zone doesn't put effort for their Energy Independence more, after this. I don't know what to say. They have to get back to Nuclear.

 

[Vivendi]

I read something the other day that Germany has done a deal with Qatar for LNG. So they'll be building LNG infra struct at German ports, I presume.

Germany seals gas deal with Qatar to reduce dependence on Russia | Oil and Gas News | Al Jazeera

Yes, they are planning two LNG terminals, the building of these will be "fast-tracked". It will be interesting to see how fast they can do it. Construction of one terminal should start before the end of the year, not sure about the other one.

Shell joins German LNG for Brunsbüttel import - Offshore Energy (offshore-energy.biz)
Germany to 'fast-track' gas terminals as part of Qatar deal (france24.com)

Germany also has another option to rapidly get access to LNG: A Norwegian company has developed a "floating LNG terminal" concept, basically a terminal on a ship. No agreement has been made yet. This ship based LNG can supply a bit more than 10% of what Russia supplies to Germany... It will take a lot of time and effort for Germany to become independent of Russian gas. Norsk rederi i samtaler med Tyskland om gassmottak (msn.com)

 

[Ananda]

MSN

Put this article in this thread, not the other one. As after reading it, it is indicating some intelligence analysts in West see how Putin conducting the war shown how his intentions, and way for West to see Russian potential compromise ground.

This is interesting article from Newsweek. Frankly speaking not something that I expect to see from one of mainstream US media on this stage of war. Basically Newsweek quoting some intelligence officers, that all say one thing, 'Putin from beginning of war is holding back his actual capabilities'.

They practically say, despite all talking from Ukraine on Western mainstream media that Putin targeting civilian, they all agree Putin basically relatively still holding off as much as possible on civilians target but more on Military bases and airfield.

Putin no doubt has been grossly underestimate Ukraine defense and will to fight. However by changing tactical approach after the first strategy did not work, the Russian change the movement toward area they want to secure, and area they want to use as push to Ukraine on mediation table.

The intensity Russian done toward Mariupol shown in my opinion they need that city to be claimed, and not just surrounded. This's consistent with Putin agenda that he need to secure Crimea and Donetsk and Luhansk.

However as I have put in other thread a week or more before, securing Crimea means also securing their water supply. That's mean Kherson Oblast and potentially the adjacent Zaporizhye Oblast. Will that be Putin final goal ? Securing those 4 Oblasts as part for buffer zone and Crimean security ?

 

[swerve]

I read something the other day that Germany has done a deal with Qatar for LNG. So they'll be building LNG infra struct at German ports, I presume.

Germany seals gas deal with Qatar to reduce dependence on Russia | Oil and Gas News | Al Jazeera

I think there are LNG terminals in western Europe with spare capacity, but not in the right places & not connected up to pipelines leading to the right places. Terminals in Spain aren't useful for Germany. I don't know how the time & cost to connect them up would compare with new LNG infrastructure plugging straight into Germany's pipelines.