Well with the current production and rate of economy I can't see Ruskies pulling this off in 20 years time , but Financial Times predicted in 5 years development of Mexican and Russian oil field will not be able to sustain increasing demand which will surely lead to increase in oil price by a huge amount and this could just be the thing that could be vital in this plan to be able to succed.
Russia wants to dismantle nuclear subs by 2010
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In which case he is talking of combat vessels from corvette (and perhaps the larger mine warfare vessels) up.
Cheers
Also nothing is said about 300 new warships, it said the fleet would be built up to 300 from whatever size it is now. Prosumably a lot will be cheap to build corvettes and frigates. Here is a list of current Russian warships. About 540 naval vessels of all types. So a 300 unit navy in 2020 is a possiblitiy, though a lot of the minor ships are well into there life span and will be due for retiring before 2020. Counting just the offensive ships down to the Turantul 3s and the submarines at the end, the fiqure is 150+ warships, and 390 support ships.
Taken from http://www.warfare.ru/?linkid=1720&catid=243
State of the Russian Navy
Table 2. Total number: Type/class #
CV Admiral Kuznetsov 1
BCGN Kirov 2
CG Kara 1
CG Slava 3
DDG Sovremenny 5
DDG Udaloy 6
DDG Udaloy II 1
FFG Gepard 1
FFG Krivak I 1
FFG Krivak II 2
FFG Neustrashimy 1
21630 Buyan 1
FFL Grisha I 1
FFL Grisha II 6
FFL Grisha V 16
FFL Parchim II 8
FSG Nanuchka I 5
FSG Nanuchka III 10
FSG Nanuchka IV 1
FSG Tarantul 2
FSG Tarantul II 5
FSG Tarantul III 21
PCF Pauk 1
PGGF Dergach 2
PTH Turya 5
904 Orlan 2
ACV Polnochny I 3
ACV Pomornic I 2
ACV Pomornic II 2
LPD Ivan Rogov 1
LST Alligator Type I/II/III/IV 4
LST Ropucha I 2
LST Ropucha II 10
LST Ropucha III 3
SMNS Paltus 1
SMNS Uniform 3
SMNS X-Ray 3
SSN Yankee Notch 3
MHC Lida 7
MHO Gorya 2
MSC Sonya 27
MSO Natya I 10
MSO Natya II 2
MSO Natya III 2
AGE Yug 11
AGI Alpinist 4
AGI Lira 1
AGI Moma 4
AGI Vishnaya 7
AGOR Vinograd 2
AGS Biya 9
AGS Finik 21
AGS Kamenka 7
AGS Moma 7
AGS Sibiryakov 2
AGS Onega 15
HSV Onega 1
AEM AMGA 1
AEM Sadko 1
AGS Amguema 1
AK Neon Antonov 2
AK Vytegrales 1
AK Yuniy Partizan 2
AOS Luza 3
AOS Vala 5
AR Amur II 2
Muna 6
ABU Sura 5
AGB Dobrynya Nikitich 5
AGB Ivan Susanin 1
AH Ob' 3
ARC Emba 1
ARC EMBA II 1
ARC Klazma 5
ASR Kashtan 6
AX Smol'nyy 2
AOL Alyay 6
AOL Dubna 3
AOR Chilikin 5
AORL Kaliningradneft 1
AR Amur 12
AR Oskol 6
AS Malina 3
AS Urga 2
DDS Pelym 4
YDG Bereza 16
YDG Pelym 16
ARS Pionier Moskvyy 4
ASR El'brus 1
ASR Kashtan 1
ASR Kommuna 1
ASR Prut 2
ATA Goliat 18
ATA Goryn 8
ATA Sorum 15
ATS Ingul 4
ATS Katun-I 1
ATS Katun-I 7
ATS Katun-II 2
ATS MB-330 1
ATS Neftegaz 3
ATS Sliva 3
FPC Iva 4
SSBN Delta III 5
SSBN Delta IV 5
SSBN Typhoon 3
SSGN Oscar II 6
SSN Akula 9
SSN Alfa 1
SSN Sierra I 1
SSN Sierra II 2
SSN Victor III 4
SSK Kilo 16
SSK Lada 1
Taken from http://www.warfare.ru/?linkid=1720&catid=243
State of the Russian Navy
Table 2. Total number: Type/class #
CV Admiral Kuznetsov 1
BCGN Kirov 2
CG Kara 1
CG Slava 3
DDG Sovremenny 5
DDG Udaloy 6
DDG Udaloy II 1
FFG Gepard 1
FFG Krivak I 1
FFG Krivak II 2
FFG Neustrashimy 1
21630 Buyan 1
FFL Grisha I 1
FFL Grisha II 6
FFL Grisha V 16
FFL Parchim II 8
FSG Nanuchka I 5
FSG Nanuchka III 10
FSG Nanuchka IV 1
FSG Tarantul 2
FSG Tarantul II 5
FSG Tarantul III 21
PCF Pauk 1
PGGF Dergach 2
PTH Turya 5
904 Orlan 2
ACV Polnochny I 3
ACV Pomornic I 2
ACV Pomornic II 2
LPD Ivan Rogov 1
LST Alligator Type I/II/III/IV 4
LST Ropucha I 2
LST Ropucha II 10
LST Ropucha III 3
SMNS Paltus 1
SMNS Uniform 3
SMNS X-Ray 3
SSN Yankee Notch 3
MHC Lida 7
MHO Gorya 2
MSC Sonya 27
MSO Natya I 10
MSO Natya II 2
MSO Natya III 2
AGE Yug 11
AGI Alpinist 4
AGI Lira 1
AGI Moma 4
AGI Vishnaya 7
AGOR Vinograd 2
AGS Biya 9
AGS Finik 21
AGS Kamenka 7
AGS Moma 7
AGS Sibiryakov 2
AGS Onega 15
HSV Onega 1
AEM AMGA 1
AEM Sadko 1
AGS Amguema 1
AK Neon Antonov 2
AK Vytegrales 1
AK Yuniy Partizan 2
AOS Luza 3
AOS Vala 5
AR Amur II 2
Muna 6
ABU Sura 5
AGB Dobrynya Nikitich 5
AGB Ivan Susanin 1
AH Ob' 3
ARC Emba 1
ARC EMBA II 1
ARC Klazma 5
ASR Kashtan 6
AX Smol'nyy 2
AOL Alyay 6
AOL Dubna 3
AOR Chilikin 5
AORL Kaliningradneft 1
AR Amur 12
AR Oskol 6
AS Malina 3
AS Urga 2
DDS Pelym 4
YDG Bereza 16
YDG Pelym 16
ARS Pionier Moskvyy 4
ASR El'brus 1
ASR Kashtan 1
ASR Kommuna 1
ASR Prut 2
ATA Goliat 18
ATA Goryn 8
ATA Sorum 15
ATS Ingul 4
ATS Katun-I 1
ATS Katun-I 7
ATS Katun-II 2
ATS MB-330 1
ATS Neftegaz 3
ATS Sliva 3
FPC Iva 4
SSBN Delta III 5
SSBN Delta IV 5
SSBN Typhoon 3
SSGN Oscar II 6
SSN Akula 9
SSN Alfa 1
SSN Sierra I 1
SSN Sierra II 2
SSN Victor III 4
SSK Kilo 16
SSK Lada 1
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I buy it
This thread reflects many stereotypes about the Russian economy that simply isn't true.
First, the Russian economy growth has nothing to do with military sales OR oil, in fact neither have yet to make any significant impact on the GDP growth in Russia despite assumptions otherwise. There isn't enough oil investment in Russia yet for Russia to reap the rewards of their oil revenue potential, and everyone knows (or should know) that military sales really aren't big profits in teh grand scheme, otherwise major exporters like North Korea would be wealthy instead of starving.
I think this plan will happen for a number of reasons. First, people are ignoring (or may be ignorant of) the changes on the commercial side of Russia's Maritime industry, and its current modernization plan to be completed in 2009 for surface vessels. Second, people are ignoring (or may be ignorant of) the actual state of the Russian economy over the last 3 years, about its future, and why the 7-8% growth has nothing to do with oil or military sales. Third, people are ignoring (or again ignorant to) how Russia has been moving forward without money in their submarine industry, basically trading deployment funds for R&D on the only aspect of the Russian shipbuilding community that is functioning effectively (submarines) with virtually all funding invested in R&D for SSBNs, SSNs, and SSKs. That isn't a small thing, this investment plus overseas sales has kept the most expensive and technically challenging shipbuilding industry afloat. Finally, people are ignoring how the Navy has secured a full 25%+ of the total military budget, where in the USSR days it was at the bottom of the funding food chain.
Finally, the 6 ships are not aircraft carriers. As a child of the cold war some of us Americans learned to read Russian, which meant nothing to most of during the cold war but is nice today thanks to the internet. While I haven't found many of the details in English yet, details of the 6 ships is in the Russian media. They will be around 50,000 tons, support 30 planes and helicopters, and be nuclear powered. Most importantly, they are not aircraft carriers, rather described as aviation platforms in Russian, which means they are more likely to resemble the Kiev class than the Nimitz class.
Also look at the source. This isn't the usual low level admiral making statements, this is Masorin, who wouldn't make this announcement unless the political support already existed. He is too high level to go out on a limb like other admirals have in the past.
For details about why I think this plan will probably be executed effectively, including sources for my statements above, you can check out my further detailed and source thoughts here.
This thread reflects many stereotypes about the Russian economy that simply isn't true.
First, the Russian economy growth has nothing to do with military sales OR oil, in fact neither have yet to make any significant impact on the GDP growth in Russia despite assumptions otherwise. There isn't enough oil investment in Russia yet for Russia to reap the rewards of their oil revenue potential, and everyone knows (or should know) that military sales really aren't big profits in teh grand scheme, otherwise major exporters like North Korea would be wealthy instead of starving.
I think this plan will happen for a number of reasons. First, people are ignoring (or may be ignorant of) the changes on the commercial side of Russia's Maritime industry, and its current modernization plan to be completed in 2009 for surface vessels. Second, people are ignoring (or may be ignorant of) the actual state of the Russian economy over the last 3 years, about its future, and why the 7-8% growth has nothing to do with oil or military sales. Third, people are ignoring (or again ignorant to) how Russia has been moving forward without money in their submarine industry, basically trading deployment funds for R&D on the only aspect of the Russian shipbuilding community that is functioning effectively (submarines) with virtually all funding invested in R&D for SSBNs, SSNs, and SSKs. That isn't a small thing, this investment plus overseas sales has kept the most expensive and technically challenging shipbuilding industry afloat. Finally, people are ignoring how the Navy has secured a full 25%+ of the total military budget, where in the USSR days it was at the bottom of the funding food chain.
Finally, the 6 ships are not aircraft carriers. As a child of the cold war some of us Americans learned to read Russian, which meant nothing to most of during the cold war but is nice today thanks to the internet. While I haven't found many of the details in English yet, details of the 6 ships is in the Russian media. They will be around 50,000 tons, support 30 planes and helicopters, and be nuclear powered. Most importantly, they are not aircraft carriers, rather described as aviation platforms in Russian, which means they are more likely to resemble the Kiev class than the Nimitz class.
Also look at the source. This isn't the usual low level admiral making statements, this is Masorin, who wouldn't make this announcement unless the political support already existed. He is too high level to go out on a limb like other admirals have in the past.
For details about why I think this plan will probably be executed effectively, including sources for my statements above, you can check out my further detailed and source thoughts here.
I thought this was an excellent post Galrahn. Thanks also for the link to your blog.
The Russian navy is certainly in need of modernisation but this plan goes way beyond getting the existing navy into shape or replacing worn out ships with new on a one for one basis. For the first time since the days of the USSR the new plan will, if carried out, result in Russia becoming a first class naval power, second only to the USA. It has, IMO, huge implications for Western navies, most of which, including the USN, have been steadily shrinking. There will be huge pressure on the USN to arrest its decline in numbers and huge pressure on European navies to rebuild. In the Pacific and Indian Oceans, I think a naval arms race has already begun, led by India, China, Japan and South Korea in particular, which all have navies that are growing in both quantity and in quality.
I'm away from home and will have very limited internet access for the next few weeks but I'll be interested to follow developments in this thread, as much as possible.
Cheers
kinggodzilla87
New Member
You may be rigth about that but the usa is growing in quality ie the new CGX
any way I thing this big news European , USN , and China, India navies
really nice post. Although I think even 6 aviation capable ship at this point is impossible for the Russians. I read a JDW article a while back on the current nature of Russian military. Thinking about how long it took them to even get a corvette launched, I'd be impressed if they get 1 new aviation capable ship in service by 2015.
I guess the most important statement lies here:” keep two aircraft-carrying vessels on duty and two more in alertness while two others can undergo repair and modernization works."
In the so call 20years length, probably first pair are refreshing hulls, will then see them actively roaming across the world oceans in the near future. The second pair of new hulls will start construction at around the 5th year and finalize sea trials at around 10th year. At about the 15th year elite crew will transfer to new pairs of CV and take over jobs while the refreshed hulls will undergo another refresh. The third pair will only lay their keel in late of the 20 years time length. Until the picture is fully painted, it should be about 30~35years after the 1st step taken.
In the case of warships, they will need to replace/refresh anyways. Just that now they will be reorganizes to fit in to aircraft-carrying attack groups, that’s all.
In the so call 20years length, probably first pair are refreshing hulls, will then see them actively roaming across the world oceans in the near future. The second pair of new hulls will start construction at around the 5th year and finalize sea trials at around 10th year. At about the 15th year elite crew will transfer to new pairs of CV and take over jobs while the refreshed hulls will undergo another refresh. The third pair will only lay their keel in late of the 20 years time length. Until the picture is fully painted, it should be about 30~35years after the 1st step taken.
In the case of warships, they will need to replace/refresh anyways. Just that now they will be reorganizes to fit in to aircraft-carrying attack groups, that’s all.
Have you seen pictures of the yard the corvette was built in? I am surprised that thing floats. The corvette program pretty much guaranteed Russia won't build any new large surface combatants until after 2009, and focus on modernization and commercial ships until then.
from china & oil
by selling hi-tech stuff to china, russia would have accumulated enough money
also dont forget the oil-power of russia . people tend to forget that Russia is a big energy super-power.
As energy resources become scarce, russia would benefit immensely.
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by selling hi-tech stuff to china, russia would have accumulated enough money
also dont forget the oil-power of russia . people tend to forget that Russia is a big energy super-power.
As energy resources become scarce, russia would benefit immensely.
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Super Nimrod
New Member
As nero says Oil.............and gas and minerals. They are coining it in at the moment at a higher rate than for many decades.
mexsoldier
New Member
russia should have another priorities
the russian economy has growth a lot since the economic meltdown in the 90's , but since that the foreign debt has becoming a important issue, the economy could growbut we don't know if the huge debt could begin to damage that growing rate, remember argentina in 2000's., russia should start paying that debt instead of invest in something that cant give them food, if russia succsess in the economy thing, russia can succsess in the military.
the russian economy has growth a lot since the economic meltdown in the 90's , but since that the foreign debt has becoming a important issue, the economy could growbut we don't know if the huge debt could begin to damage that growing rate, remember argentina in 2000's., russia should start paying that debt instead of invest in something that cant give them food, if russia succsess in the economy thing, russia can succsess in the military.
Akinci-Raider
New Member
We are talkin big money....can they afford it?
Russias foreign debts are far less than Russian foreign assets. Russia is a large net creditor these days, not a debtor.
contedicavour
New Member
Russia may have a strong economy again (sorry to disagree with some previous posts, but a heck of a lot of this growth comes from natural resources, natural gas and minerals such as aluminium even more than oil) but there are too many obstacles in my opinion to such a development of the Russian navy :
(i) current state (financial & industrial) of the shipyards, most of which are bankrupt or are kept alive indirectly by the government but haven't built any big surface vessel since the early '90s.
(ii) confusion over future ships : there is a big bunch of prototypes around, from Gepard to Neustrashimy to Udaloy II ... all single ship classes. Sure, some classes such as 22380 look promising enough for the future, but it'll take more than 13 years to build them in sufficient numbers
(iii) mass obsolescence of current navy : Krivaks, Karas, Grishas are all obsolete. The remaining Sovremennys and Udaloys would require massive modernization to be credible vs contemporary US and European DDGs and FFGs. Even in subs, where Russia is strong, you still need to replace Viktor IIIs and the earlier Kilos, not to mention the Delta III SSBNs. I see the new Dolgoruki SSBNs building, but no news on the SSNs and the Lada/Amurs aren't exactly building in numbers...
(iv) why on Earth should Russia build aviation support ships comparable to the '80s Kievs if there is no Russian equivalent to Harriers/F35Bs since the end of the VSTOL Yakovlevs ? Russia has one good naval fighter, the navalized SU27. It requires ships at least as big as the Kutznetsov to make sense. Building from scratch a new Kutznetsov right now would take at least 8 years. Russia has no active shipyards to build such a big carrier, though it certainly could develop one. It could hardly build more than 2 simultaneously though. So by 2020 at the very best it could have 2 and another 2 building.
cheers
(i) current state (financial & industrial) of the shipyards, most of which are bankrupt or are kept alive indirectly by the government but haven't built any big surface vessel since the early '90s.
(ii) confusion over future ships : there is a big bunch of prototypes around, from Gepard to Neustrashimy to Udaloy II ... all single ship classes. Sure, some classes such as 22380 look promising enough for the future, but it'll take more than 13 years to build them in sufficient numbers
(iii) mass obsolescence of current navy : Krivaks, Karas, Grishas are all obsolete. The remaining Sovremennys and Udaloys would require massive modernization to be credible vs contemporary US and European DDGs and FFGs. Even in subs, where Russia is strong, you still need to replace Viktor IIIs and the earlier Kilos, not to mention the Delta III SSBNs. I see the new Dolgoruki SSBNs building, but no news on the SSNs and the Lada/Amurs aren't exactly building in numbers...
(iv) why on Earth should Russia build aviation support ships comparable to the '80s Kievs if there is no Russian equivalent to Harriers/F35Bs since the end of the VSTOL Yakovlevs ? Russia has one good naval fighter, the navalized SU27. It requires ships at least as big as the Kutznetsov to make sense. Building from scratch a new Kutznetsov right now would take at least 8 years. Russia has no active shipyards to build such a big carrier, though it certainly could develop one. It could hardly build more than 2 simultaneously though. So by 2020 at the very best it could have 2 and another 2 building.
cheers
You seem to not get the point , what does the fact that Udaloys and Sovermeny class are not new , have to do with russia building more ships?
And infact , Tico's and Alreigh Burkes are old ships too , i don't remember any new destroyers beeing commisioned after 90's ?
Not that it has anything to do with it
For your IV point : Maybe because Pak-Fa will be in 2 versions , naval and airforce?
Exactly right, until the modernization occurs for the shipyards happens any surface fleet from the Russians is an exercise in Powerpoint. That modernization comes from the private sector and government, not the military though, which actually makes it more likely to happen.
This is a mixed bag. I actually think this is a good sign and not a bad one, and in many ways hope the US Navy takes this approach for about the next 8 years. In many ways, the US took a substantial lead in naval capabilities because of prototypes, examples include the USS Enterprise, USS Long Beach, and USS Bainbridge, each of which represented a ton of unqiue changes for the US Navy from missile driven design to nuclear propulsion, among many others. A pair of DDG-1000s for the US Navy (instead of a whole class) could represent some prototypes for the US to move the US Navy into energy weapons, UCAVs, advanced electric engineering, and stealth to name a few technologies. Prototypes are excellent ways to bridge peacetime gaps for Navies, and there is little question Russia has been in a gap since the end of the cold war.
Prototypes keeps the R&D base funded, which is more important than keeping the industrial base supplied. I would rather stay at the tip of innovation than the tip of production, because production is much easier to rebuild than innovation. China is a good example.
True, but remember, Russia's government has an advantage over the west, it doesn't have gigantic social programs draining the budget. Russia's economy is ranked 9th in the world just barely behind Italy and France in GDP purchasing power, except Italy and France put a large percentage of government spending on social programs and health care.
Depending upon which article you read, the dates are different. I get the impression the construction would begin in 2015 with a new ship every 2 and half years completing them by 2030. That would presumably put the first ship in commission by 2020.
no, but your points just reinforces my shock that the Russians are planning so many "aviation ships".
That's not really true. The last two 956EM Sovs sold to China are in fact, brand new vessels.
Still it was quite a political mess how they were built, and China itself doubted the Sovs may ever be completed. Many of the parts were built in places that are now separated Republics. The relocation of all the parts and manufacturing back to Russia had undoubtedly made the ship quite expensive for a rather modernized Cold War design. Accidents, delays, political and media circus added to the annoyance of the customer.
But nonetheless they are done and delivered. The PLAN seems generally happy about the Sovs, both the old and the new pair, which is a lot to say about it since the PLA itself has been less than happy with other Russian products before. The Sovs seem more straightforward to operate than some of the more advanced (and complicated) Chinese ship designs, and probably may have been in a shopping list once again, but that prospect of buying new Sovs is not very likely now.
Nonetheless the experience and mistakes in building these ships could provide a rally ground for the Russian ship industry to reform itself. The experience is valuable, certainly for the Russians, knowing at least they can still build ships as big as a Sov.
One critical factor will be man-power. Where is Russia going to get the crews for such an expansion? The number of Russian males refusing or avoiding the draft is on the increase. If Russia wants to build a credible modern Navy it will have to move to an all volunteer force made up of well motivated well educated officers and OR's. This will prove a major hurdle unless they greatly improve conditions of service, pay and prospects.
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