Russia - General Discussion.

[Feanor]

Interesting detail from West-2025 exercises. There are observers from many countries present, but only three NATO members; Hungary, Turkey, and *drumroll* the USA. Distinguished company. And it certainly is telling. Even Slovakia, who gets accused of being pro-Russian, is notably absent.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

 

[hauritz]

Russia still seems to be testing NATO's resolve, this time sending three MIG-31s into Estonia's airspace. They picked the fastest aircraft in their inventory so they obviously didn't intend sticking around.

Estonia requests NATO Article 4 talks after Russian airspace violation

Three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets lingered in NATO-member Estonia's airspace for several minutes on Friday, according to Estonian authorities.

www.euronews.com

 

[rsemmes]

Russia still seems to be testing NATO's resolve, this time sending three MIG-31s into Estonia's airspace. They picked the fastest aircraft in their inventory so they obviously didn't intend sticking around.

Estonia requests NATO Article 4 talks after Russian airspace violation

Three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets lingered in NATO-member Estonia's airspace for several minutes on Friday, according to Estonian authorities.

www.euronews.com

12 minutes looks like a lot of not "sticking around" for a fighter. Over the Baltic, parallel to the border.
For some reason, now, every provocation seems to be a call for WW3.

 

[vikingatespam]

12 minutes looks like a lot of not "sticking around" for a fighter. Over the Baltic, parallel to the border.
For some reason, now, every provocation seems to be a call for WW3.

Not "parallell", but into Estonian airspace.

Another calculated escalation by Russia. Well, we know how to stop this behavior. RU tried it with the Turks in 2015 and they shot down a RU airplane that went into Turkish airspace, and that promptly stopped.

 

[crest]

Not "parallell", but into Estonian airspace.

Another calculated escalation by Russia. Well, we know how to stop this behavior. RU tried it with the Turks in 2015 and they shot down a RU airplane that went into Turkish airspace, and that promptly stopped.

I suspect it would be a different matter if Estonia started shooting at Russian jets. Don't get me wrong it's part of n.a.t.o and therefore Russia would be taking great risks is any response to that action. That said it's also Estonia and there are serious questions as to how far down the road of nuclear war in Europe anyone is willing to go over Estonia.

The resent track record of the u.s and the actions of trump in particular don't I imagine garner alot of trust that the United States is going to back up Estonia if they not just poke but try kicking the bear in the face. Qatar for example is much more important to the u.s interests and it's been bombed by both Iran and Israel well being home the critical u.s air and navle bases and having its own set of "iron clad security guarantees"

Also if push comes to shove even with n.a.t.oinvolvment Estonia is not in a great position geographically to be starting a massive conflict with Russia, that may not factor into the calculations of us armchare generals but I promise you it factors heavily into the calculations of Estonians

 

[KipPotapych]

https://x.com/Archer83Able/status/1968742163446960444

Not "parallell", but into Estonian airspace.

Another calculated escalation by Russia. Well, we know how to stop this behavior. RU tried it with the Turks in 2015 and they shot down a RU airplane that went into Turkish airspace, and that promptly stopped.

That’d be wrong, it didn’t. Russia kept flying into the Turkish air space with no response from the Turks. One example a couple of months after the jet went down:

Turkey issues warning to Russia, claiming airspace violation

Turkey's Foreign Minister says it has summoned the Russian ambassador after a Russian jet violated Turkey's airspace on Friday despite several warnings.

apnews.com

Plus the Turks had to fold and apologize. Actually the pilots who shot down the Russian plane ended up being arrested after the unsuccessful coup a few months later.

I am not sure why people keep citing this example, but remember it wrong, it appears. Sure, Turkey shot down the Russian Su. Have they changed the behaviour? No. Did they pay for it? Yes. Would they do it all over again? I tend to think not and they haven’t since while having plenty of opportunities.

 

[Feanor]

Not "parallell", but into Estonian airspace.

Another calculated escalation by Russia. Well, we know how to stop this behavior. RU tried it with the Turks in 2015 and they shot down a RU airplane that went into Turkish airspace, and that promptly stopped.

The "into" and "parallel to" aren't really contradictions. The planes were headed to Kaliningrad, and this is apparently the route they took. They did fly parallel to the border, but inside the Estonian side. The Turkish example, in addition to the details mentioned above, was also a spectacular example of hypocrisy. Several years prior a Turkish recon jet spent hours in Syrian airspace before being shot down. At that point iirc Erdogan said that a violation that small can't be a reason for a shoot down. Now it's possible we have a provocation here by Russia. It's also possible we have a mistake. Either way, it's probably unwise to start shooting down Russian jets, not because it will lead to a shooting war, but because the airspace in that area around Kaliningrad is tight. What happens when a NATO aircraft makes a genuine mistake and wanders in Russian airspace for several seconds, due to taking a turn a little too wide and gets shot down in response? Is that a good outcome? On a side note, I know that Russia has wandered into airspace of the Baltics before, often it's an obvious accident, sometimes it's not clear.

bmpd

Распространенная министерством обороны Эстонии карта заявляемого эстонской стороной нарушения ее воздушного пространства тремя истребителями-перехватчиками МиГ-31 ВКС РФ при перелете в Калининградскую область 19 сентября

t.me

EDIT: It appears Russia has purchased and is now receiving gas-turbines of Iranian design and manufacture. I don't think this is a good sign for Russia. This is the kind of thing they should be able to produce domestically.

bmpd

⚡️ Иран впервые поставил в Россию газовую турбину собственной разработки, сообщил министр энергетики страны А. Алиабади. Судя по всему, речь идет о газовой турбине MGT-70 производства иранской компании Mapna. В поставку вошли турбина, генераторы, другое электрооборудование и услуги по ремонту...

t.me