Russian Exploits in Sub-Saharan Africa

[Feanor]

This is a catch-all thread for growing Russian involvement in parts of Africa.

The most recent major event has been in the Central African Republic where, ahead of elections, rebels seized a major city. 300 additional Russian military specialists (likely not service members for the most part) and PMCs have been flown in, and are seen protecting the president incumbent. VVS Mi-8 helos (possibly AMTSh variants) were apparently handed over to the CAR military, and have been flying around the country. Earlier Russia delivered a batch of BRDM-2s as military aid.

Apparently Rwandan forces have also been deployed and have participated in the fighting.

Central African Republic: Rebel Violence Threatens Elections

A new rebel coalition in the Central African Republic has created havoc in the run-up to the country’s legislative and presidential elections, scheduled for December 27, 2020.

www.hrw.org

CAR rebels seize city ahead of elections

Власти ЦАР: Россия направила в республику сотни военных

В МИД РФ заявили, что Россия "не посылает войска" в ЦАР. Однако там отметили, что Россия "готова помочь в обеспечении безопасности и единства страны". В последние дни в этом африканском государстве начались бои между правительственными войсками и сторонниками бывшего президента Франсуа Бозизе.

classic.newsru.com

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Russian PMCs have even been riding around in Toyota technicals.

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Some fighting has already taken place and government forces lost a destroyed Ural truck and captured BRDM-2 to the rebels.

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[Vivendi]

The ANC part of South Africa wants to pull out of the ICC after the ICC issued an arrest order for Putin: South Africa’s Ramaphosa says governing party wants ICC exit

They refer to "unfair treatment", which is kind of interesting. The last time they referred to "unfair treatment" it was because arrest warrants had been issued for African leaders. Now they expand the "unfair treatment" to also include Russian leaders with imperial ambitions it seems.

They also say that the ICC laws are "contradictory": ICC laws contradictory on arrest warrant issued for Vladimir Putin, says ANC
Not sure what they mean by that?

In any case, this is very sad but not unexpected. Scandinavian countries in general supported the fight against apartheid. It is disappointing to see that the ANC will not support the ICC in investigating serious war crimes.

 

[Feanor]

Russia is allegedly forming a new unit, an African Corps. Reportedly they're planning to recruit 20 or 40 000 service members, and this will be an official MoD formation, likely replacing the role of Wagner for African purposes. Note while theoretically it should be very difficult to find 40 000 available contract troops to send to Africa, in practice they're likely going to try and attract most of the former Wagner fighters into the new structure. Official information is scarce and so far it's not confirmed. However it's highly likely that something of this sort will be necessary because Wagner is basically gone and Russia is still in a relationship with a number of African countries. Moreover Russian fighters are currently in those countries, and their status is questionable.

Месть доброй воли

Министерсто обороны Российской Федерации создает новое подразделение - Африканский корпус. Исходя из названия - основной задачей данного подразделения станут действия за пределами Российской Федерации в Африке. В соответствии с международными договоренностями военнослужащие ВС РФ официально...

t.me

РФ создает новую ЧВК для операций в Африке численностью 20 тыс. человек – Центр нацсопротивления

Наемники российской частной военной компании Вагнер , признанной в мире преступной организацией, могут влиться в...

gordonua.com

 

[ngatimozart]

Russia is allegedly forming a new unit, an African Corps. Reportedly they're planning to recruit 20 or 40 000 service members, and this will be an official MoD formation, likely replacing the role of Wagner for African purposes. Note while theoretically it should be very difficult to find 40 000 available contract troops to send to Africa, in practice they're likely going to try and attract most of the former Wagner fighters into the new structure. Official information is scarce and so far it's not confirmed. However it's highly likely that something of this sort will be necessary because Wagner is basically gone and Russia is still in a relationship with a number of African countries. Moreover Russian fighters are currently in those countries, and their status is questionable.

Месть доброй воли

Министерсто обороны Российской Федерации создает новое подразделение - Африканский корпус. Исходя из названия - основной задачей данного подразделения станут действия за пределами Российской Федерации в Африке. В соответствии с международными договоренностями военнослужащие ВС РФ официально...

t.me

РФ создает новую ЧВК для операций в Африке численностью 20 тыс. человек – Центр нацсопротивления

Наемники российской частной военной компании Вагнер , признанной в мире преступной организацией, могут влиться в...

gordonua.com

TBH those 20 - 40k personnel would be far better used on the front in the Russo Ukrainian war.

 

[Feanor]

TBH those 20 - 40k personnel would be far better used on the front in the Russo Ukrainian war.

I don't think this is true. Russia's ROI on forces invested in Ukraine is very low. When it comes to Africa relatively small forces can have geostrategic implications.

 

[KipPotapych]

Edit: Moved to the right thread.

 

[Feanor]

Some updates. Despite the main focus being on Ukraine Russia has continued their activity in Africa. I want to be clear, this doesn't represent a sudden flurry of Russian activity in Africa. Rather I'm posting accumulated material from the past ~3 months. Overall we're not seeing anything revolutionary in Russia's approach. Rather just a continuation of previous policy.

It seems General-Colonel Yunus Bek Evkurov is the new Prigozhin. He had some ties to Wagner in the past, and is now traveling to Africa to make the deals that Wagner used to. He visited Burkino Faso, and then Benghazi, meeting with Libyan clients.

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A Wagner Chekan armored truck spotted in Mali, and another Chekan variant in the Central African Republic. Despite Wagner's disappearance this vehicle remains in service, presumably with Russia's newly formed African Corps? Recently a Chekan carrying a mine trawl was tested in Ukraine. I suspect it's being tested for use in Africa.

Африканские композиторы.

БТР Чекан, он же Щука, ЧВК Вагнер в Мали.

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

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Russian Africa Corps arriving in Burkina Faso. As more and more countries are taking an anti-French position, Russia is clearly stepping in to capitalize.

Colonelcassad

t.me

Locals in Mali commenting on Wagner forces.

GREY ZONE

"Вагнер! Вагнер едет!" Ничего необычного, просто в африканском Мали местные жители радуются тому, что заметили проезжающую колонну "музыкантов" Бладсикер. Подписаться

t.me

In the CAR local authorities are handing out awards to Wagner fighters.

Colonelcassad

В ЦАР местные власти провели награждение бойцов ЧВК "Вагнер" отличившихся при наведении конституционного порядка в стране и добившихся больших успехов в подготовке местных силовиков. Отличившиеся "музыканты" были награждены высшей государственной наградой ЦАР.

t.me

 

[seaspear]

is it just a co-incidence that an anti French position that has been generated has caused President Macron to become more animated in the Ukraine war?

 

[Feanor]

is it just a co-incidence that an anti French position that has been generated has caused President Macron to become more animated in the Ukraine war?

I suspect not. But sending a French btln to Ukraine is far less impactful then Russia expanding their presence in multiple African countries. In principle Russia should be pushing harder in Africa and attempting to end the war in Ukraine.

 

[Fredled]

According to Ukrainian sources, Wagner is recruiting Ukrainians in Ukrainian territories under their control (apparently POWs but it's not very clear) to serve in Africa.
The proposed salary of RUB 240,000 is higher than the salary proposed to Russians fighting in Ukraine (RUB 180 000)
I don't understand the logic behind hiring volunteers for Africa at such high cost.

Russia's ROI on forces invested in Ukraine is very low. When it comes to Africa relatively small forces can have geostrategic implications.

Yes, but does having geostrategic implications bring meaningful ROI?
What's the goal of their investment there? Trade? Mining? Diplomacy?...

is it just a co-incidence that an anti French position that has been generated has caused President Macron to become more animated in the Ukraine war?

I suspect not. But sending a French btln to Ukraine is far less impactful then Russia expanding their presence in multiple African countries. In principle Russia should be pushing harder in Africa and attempting to end the war in Ukraine.

With half of the forces they have used in Ukraine, they could have invaded half of Africa. LOL.
But to add to what I wrote above, the Russians doesn't much benefit in expanding their presence in Africa other than an easy opportunity to form a diplomatic alliance and perhaps some mining business to cover the expense.

The French are not going to send foot soldiers in Ukraine anytime soon. There was much hubbub about what Macron said, but it's far from being a concrete reality.
However, withdrawing from Africa will free money and equipements which can be used now in Ukraine. I think the equipment is not that important, but the money can be.

The question is what the Africans need Wagner for? The french were there to fight against the Islamists. But as far as I know, that's not what Wagner does there.
Why can't Africans have their own soldiers?

 

[Feanor]

According to Ukrainian sources, Wagner is recruiting Ukrainians in Ukrainian territories under their control (apparently POWs but it's not very clear) to serve in Africa.
The proposed salary of RUB 240,000 is higher than the salary proposed to Russians fighting in Ukraine (RUB 180 000)
I don't understand the logic behind hiring volunteers for Africa at such high cost.

PMCs tend to pay better then actual military service. So that's not surprising.

Yes, but does having geostrategic implications bring meaningful ROI?
What's the goal of their investment there? Trade? Mining? Diplomacy?...

I think it's trade. Contracts for Russian companies to get involved in resource extraction in Africa, contracts for Russian companies to build things and supply things to the Africans.

With half of the forces they have used in Ukraine, they could have invaded half of Africa. LOL.
But to add to what I wrote above, the Russians doesn't much benefit in expanding their presence in Africa other than an easy opportunity to form a diplomatic alliance and perhaps some mining business to cover the expense.

You just kind of explained the issue yourself. They're not invading Africa. They're there for profits, and some political benefits.

The French are not going to send foot soldiers in Ukraine anytime soon. There was much hubbub about what Macron said, but it's far from being a concrete reality.
However, withdrawing from Africa will free money and equipements which can be used now in Ukraine. I think the equipment is not that important, but the money can be.

I think you have it backwards. One of the things is that money can't buy equipment if the equipment isn't there to buy. If you pour money in but production can't keep up, you get demand-pull inflation. Look at what's happened with the price of 155mm shells. Either way, the scale of the involvement there is miniscule compared to the effort in Ukraine. If things start to go really bad for Russia in Ukraine, this might happen, but that's just not the case. And I think Russia is turning a profit on their involvement in Africa. Meaning pulling out won't free up resources, rather it will tie up resources. From an equipment standpoint, Russian forces in Africa appear to mostly be light infantry. We're not seeing MBTs, IFVs, or artillery. So how much does Russia need more light infantry in Ukraine?

The question is what the Africans need Wagner for? The french were there to fight against the Islamists. But as far as I know, that's not what Wagner does there.
Why can't Africans have their own soldiers?

Help them fight for starters. Train them, and participate in the combat. Look at the CAR, where Wagner involvement essentially won the local civil war for the government forces. They're also potentially more reliable as security forces.