Russia - General Discussion.

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Fredled

Active Member
Ananda said:
Why they need lot off USD ??
Well, if you don;t understand that, then I don;t know what to say...
Sure, Russian elite leaders don't care as long as they keep the power and maintain their billionaire way of life, no matter how poor is the population.
Venezuela and DPRK are perfect examples of successful USD free economies.

Ananda said:
After the cap, the discount still the same.
The price cap is one more hurdle to trade Russian oil, on top of other sanctions. There is a direct link between oil shipping insurance and the price cap.

Ananda said:
Remember MAGA crowd wants Trump to cut off Zelensky.
No. MAGA crowds wants what Trump tells them. If Trump says that Zelensky is a great guy, that he is fantastic guy, his supporters will think Zelensky is a great guy, no matter if it contradicts present or past statements he made.

Trump's fans don't have other political opinion other than what Trump is telling them. They vote for him because they believe that he is right all the time. Trump knows how to use the words so that the crowd will always think that he shares their ideas, while in reality it's him who influence them. ;)
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Well, if you don;t understand that, then I don;t know what to say...
Sure, Russian elite leaders don't care as long as they keep the power and maintain their billionaire way of life, no matter how poor is the population.
Venezuela and DPRK are perfect examples of successful USD free economies.
You keep equivocating and conflating. Russia's economy can still get USD, it's just more difficult. Difficult doesn't mean impossible. A lack in one area doesn't mean collapse everywhere.

The price cap is one more hurdle to trade Russian oil, on top of other sanctions. There is a direct link between oil shipping insurance and the price cap.
Do you have any evidence to show this direct link between oil shipping insurance and the price cap? Also what is the nature of the link in your opinion?
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Well, if you don;t understand that, then I don;t know what to say...
Seems you are who don't understands that they are not trading much with Western Market. Thus they don't need as much as they use too. They are trading without USD or Euro now on other market. You are clearly don't understand how market works.

You also still continue with that ridiculous claim that Russia can't get as much as USD they want with other currencies they have. Shown you are clearly not market practitioners, but keep on that thinking.

If Russia has Yuan or Rupee, they can change those Yuan and Rupee to USD outside Non Western Market if they have too. Do you even understands there are much more USD outside US ? Shanghai and HongKong or Dubai market is deep and liquid market. They can find as much as USD they need. Now if it is costing Russia more, that's different story, but they can find USD with what Yuan they have.

price cap is one more hurdle to trade Russian oil, on top of other sanctions. There is a direct link between oil shipping insurance and the price cap.
Again the increase on insurance shipping already happen before price cap. Look the premium costs that make Russian oil in average are 20% lower in similar market price on non Russian oil, happen before Price Cap. After Price Cap, the premium costs thus discount on Russian oil not differ much. That's what happen in oil market. So that's why eventough it is "intended" as hurdles, it doesn't effect much as previous sanctions that Russian got on Western Financial access.

Market costs matter much more then just "toothless" political rhetoric like price cap.

MAGA crowds wants what Trump tells them. If Trump says that Zelensky is a great guy, that he is fantastic guy, his supporters will think Zelensky is a great guy, no matter if it contradicts present or past statements he made.
Are you have direct access to Trump inner circles ? Are you MAGA crowds? Again no body knows what Trump will do, every one still guessing. Still you are so sure that Trump will do what you are wishing on.

MAGA crowds has their believes on Zelensky, and saying they are gullible crowd that only follow Trump no matter what he says, clearly shown disdain and underestimating toward them. Now many already underestimate MAGA crowds influence on Trump and US politics, and those are ussualy on 'surprise' side when Trump do what he promises to MAGA crowds.

So feel free on keeping on wish that Trump will love Zelensky and underestimating MAGA crowds as Trump main constituencies. Trump in the end is businessman first before politician, and as businessman he knows well how important to maintain his main customers/constituencies expectations. Will see where he goes, but personally I'm not going to bet that he will left and discard his MAGA constituents expectations.





Like I said, nobody knows what Trump will do but so far more opinion predict Trump will force Zelensky to stop the war, and let Putin hold Donbas and Crimea (basically what he already control). That's basically what he promises MAGA crowd. End the war ASAP and no more money to Ukraine war.

So if you want to keep hoping what MAGA crowd expectations don't matter, well go for it. However don't be surprises if Trump play what he promises to MAGA crowd. His first term shown he mostly do what he promises to MAGA crowds. But fell free to hoping otherwise.
 
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Fredled

Active Member
Ananda said:
Seems you are who don't understands that they are not trading much with Western Market.
Of course they don't. LOL.

Ananda said:
You also still continue with that ridiculous claim that Russia can't get as much as USD they want with other currencies they have. If Russia has Yuan or Rupee, they can change those Yuan and Rupee to USD outside Non Western Market if they have too.
Yes, but they are going to lose big on exchange rates and the larger the sums, the more difficult it gets.
If Russia wants to buy several billion US dollars with Yuans, they will have problems. Even for non sanctioned countries it's difficult because there are not a lot of buyers in USD for CNY.

The second hurdle for Russia is political. If Chinese sees that Russia sells systematically their CNY for USD, they may terminate their "Eternal Friendship" sooner than expected. The deal is that Russia is paid in CNY so that they buy from China. Not that they dump their CNY on forex.

In some circumstances when there is a recetion in the US and a booming economy in China, it could make sens for investors to keep Yuans in their protfolio. But it's not the case now. The Chinese economy is decelerating and they are talking about injecting money into the economy.
Importers don't need Yuans neither since Chinese producers want dollars. If you offer Yuans or another curency, you will lose on the exchange rates and it's not worth it. For the Chinese and Indian exports, the US dollar is used almost all the time, save for bilateral political agreements on specific items. The private industry definetely still use the USD worldwide.

Anyway Russia hasn't enough yuans for their domestic market: Importers need yuans to buy from China. But I also suspect that Russians stash Yuans as they can't buy dollars anymore. That they still trust the yuan better than the Rubble.

feanor said:
Do you have any evidence to show this direct link between oil shipping insurance and the price cap? Also what is the nature of the link in your opinion?
It's not my opinion. It's the legal regulation.
International Union of Marine Insurance said:
Art 3n (1) of the Regulation prohibits all insurance of seaborne Russian crude oil traded to third countries. Art. 3n (6) provides for an exemption of the prohibition of insurance if the oil is sold at a price equal to or above the price cap fixed by the Regulation.
link

Feanor said:
Are you have direct access to Trump inner circles ?
I had very long and honest conversations with some of them. But it's not the point. If Trump says something, all his supporters will immediately agree with him. They like his personality and that's why they vote for him. Trump has a talent to stay extremely vague in his promises. This enables him to make U turns in his policies when needed without MAGA crowds even noticing.

It's true that some of the Trump's fans like Putin. Yet, they will still vote for Trump or GOP even if Trump supports Zelensky. Trump is not going to jeopardize international security just because Oath Keepers, Proud Boys or other of his most fanatic supporters love Putin. It's not going to influence foreign policies.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
It's not my opinion. It's the legal regulation.
link
Ok, I was under the mistaken impression that you were making some further argument beyond merely this.

I had very long and honest conversations with some of them. But it's not the point. If Trump says something, all his supporters will immediately agree with him. They like his personality and that's why they vote for him. Trump has a talent to stay extremely vague in his promises. This enables him to make U turns in his policies when needed without MAGA crowds even noticing.

It's true that some of the Trump's fans like Putin. Yet, they will still vote for Trump or GOP even if Trump supports Zelensky. Trump is not going to jeopardize international security just because Oath Keepers, Proud Boys or other of his most fanatic supporters love Putin. It's not going to influence foreign policies.
I didn't write what you're quoting.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
but they are going to lose big on exchange rates and the larger the sums, the more difficult it gets.
If Russia wants to buy several billion US dollars with Yuans, they will have problems. Even for non sanctioned countries it's difficult because there are not a lot of buyers in USD for CNY.
This is hilarious, you understand they don't trade with Western market but you keep insisting they need lot off USD. Again they don't, and you keep contradict yourself.

How do you believe Russia going to have difficulty converting their Yuan to USD (If they want to ?). You clearly don't understand how liquid and deep Shanghai and Hongkong Market are. They can convert hundreds of billions USD whenever they like. Do you even understand that most USD supplier are hold by market outside US ? Do you even Understand there are more USD in circulating outside US ? Most USD outside US, now in Middle East and Far East market, where Russia has access too.

Clearly you don't understand market but you keep talking this nonsense.

.

Russia still has ample Forex reserve even after sanctions. Yes they need China or Mumbai or Dubai market to exchange that for either USD and Euro. However they don't exchange that with Ruble as there are no market for USD to Ruble, but there're market for Ruble to Yuan or Rupee or Dirham. They are holding mostly Yuan, but if you keep saying there're difficulty to get billions of USD with Yuan, again you don't understand how liquid Hong Kong and Shanghai market are.

That's your problem, you always think only Western matter, only Western Market that matter, and every other market are peanuts. Well that might be happened in 20th Century, but situation are different now.

The Chinese economy is decelerating and they are talking about injecting money into the economy.
Importers don't need Yuans neither since Chinese producers want dollars. If you offer Yuans or another curency, you will lose on the exchange rates and it's not worth it
Importers don't need Yuan ?? Clearly you are living in fantasy world and don't have any clues on real transactions in Shanghai and Hong Kong market.

Right now USD trend increasing because not on real trade issue, but again because Trump issue. However if you believe nobody want to have Yuan because of the economy of China, well they are still big exporter and the demand decrease ar this moment more to weakness in Western consumption. Still Yuan usage are increasing and what you are talking are clearly nonsense as it is not base on transactions data, but more on wishing and hope.




That they still trust the yuan better than the Rubble.
That's complete different issue then talking they can't use Yuan to exchange to USD. Seems you are now back tracking to admitted they don't need much USD anyway, as they can get Yuan. Demand on Yuan increasing, does not mean there are increasing demand for USD that always your base argument in beginning. Again you are back tracking.

But it's not the point. If Trump says something, all his supporters will immediately agree with him
I also have MAGA supporters in my circles, especially from US Desks. They believe different thing as they believe as in his first term, Trump will keep his promises to his constinuence which mostly are MAGA crowd.

Then again you can keep what you believe as right now nobody knows what exactly Trump will do. You are clearly believe MAGA crowd are gulible crowds that believe anything Trump do, while I also talk with some of that crowd and they believe Trump will not going betray them, as he shows in his first term.

So keep on your believe and see what really happen between Trump to Zelensky and Putin.
 

Fredled

Active Member
Feanor said:
I didn't write what you're quoting.
My apologize. It had to be someone else...

Ananda said:
This is hilarious, you understand they don't trade with Western market but you keep insisting they need lot off USD.
They don't trade with the West not because they don't need to or they don't want to, but because they can't.

Ananda said:
You clearly don't understand how liquid and deep Shanghai and Hongkong Market are. They can convert hundreds of billions USD whenever they like.
Yes and no. Yes, Forex exchange for CNY are counted in trillion of USD equivalent per month (if I'm not mistaken), But this is mostly Chine domestic usage because everyone who imports get USD and occasionaly other currencies, very rarely Yuans, and need to buy Yuans immediately for their local expenses. Others have to sell Yuans to buy dollars to import into China raw material or whatever.
The international market for the Yuan is another story. It's not considered a fully convertible currency. This means there is limitation controled by the Bank of China on who can buy and sell, at which price and how much. Investors can gain exposure to CNY more easily by indirect ways (fund, obligation in Yuans, off shore Yuans, etc).
However, as I explained above, it would mot make sens to invest in or be exposed to chinese currency right now.
You clearly don't know what you are talking about.

Monetary exchange between Russia and China is tightly dependent on politics. (<== I didn't read the article fully yet, but it looks very interesting.)

These two informations let me think that Rusia can't buy 12 or even 11 digit amounts of USD with Yuans by a snap of their finger on the open markets. They have to do it with explicit authorisation from Beijin and in the context of a special transfer.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
explained above, it would mot make sens to invest in or be exposed to chinese currency right now.
You clearly don't know what you are talking about.
Clearly you are talking nonsense again. You don't have slighthest idea how market work, but keep talking nonsense as you are expert and practioners. For Western Players, perhaps reducing their Yuan holding due to Geopolitics concern. However that doesn't mean others will have to follow that as others have different geopolitics stance.

That's the root of your nonsense on how market work. You still believe what West want will be the rules on the market. Again Western financial market still the biggest, but not means others follow them like they used to do in 20th Century. Your thinking is 3 decades old, and that's why you keep talking those nonsense and backtracking.

international market for the Yuan is another story. It's not considered a fully convertible currency. This
That's another example why you still live in 20th Century and 3 decades behind on understanding how present market works. Yuan is convertible currencies and China working hard to convince the users on that. So the talk on China limiting Russian on converting Yuan (that Russia hold) to others, is clearly nonsense believes that doesn't understand how real financial market work. If China limiting Yuan convertibility then people will stop holding Yuan as reserve. China work hard to make Yuan as part of Global reserve. Western Central Bank limiting holding Yuan, but again doesn't mean everyone else doing that. Yuan portion as Global currency is increasing whether you like it or not, and convertibility is part of that.


The only limitation for Russia on converting their Yuan for USD, is availability of USD in Hong Kong or Shanghai markets. However again those are very liquid and deep market and have no difficulties to find teens of billions USD if customer has fund and need for. Your argument only base on some US think tanks that has bias on China and use that as how market work ? Clearly you are the one that's don't know current financial market situation, and taking as if understand that.

don't trade with the West not because they don't need to or they don't want to, but because they can't.
So that's mean they don't need as much as they used too. That's what I have say on this argument from beginning. Western market close to them thus they use other financial market that don't necessarily need Western currencies like USD, Euro etc to trade. Again means they don't need to hold much Western currencies anymore.

Seems you begin to realize that, but keep trying to argue. Just for the sake to be argumentative. So in conclusion:
  • Russia don't need as much as Western currencies on their reserve as much as before, cause they don't use that as much as before.
  • The Non Western currencies they hold can still be converted to Western ones as much as they need to, on other Non Western Market they still have access too. Especially in HongKong, Shanghai or Dubai.
 
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seaspear

Well-Known Member
This article states that the dollar is still required for specific transactions for SCO countries certainly it seems that Russia has difficulties with Chinese banks
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group



Trump threatening BRICS that they will got 100% tarrif they replace USD as Global Reserve. In one side, some media seems claim this move as part on Trump threatening trade war to all BRICS and not just China. This can drive most Global South closer to BRICS.

However it could be sign that Trump want to bargain and find compromises. In the end he is businessman, and bargaining is part of his game. I see this potentially as his first move to forward his demand and wait for reaction. I see his chains of moves on threatening others including allies with Tarrif is part of his bargaining moves.

Many nations in Global South want to reduce USD because the way Biden weaponise USD market. Now if he wants BRICS (and that's including Russia) to use USD more again, stop the flow of Dedolarisation, then he has to give assurance that USD will be back 'purely' on market rules and not being weaponise by political moves of US administration.

Could this also sign to Russia that he is open for negotiations on financial market access ? As I have mentioned before (when financial sanctions begin) in this thread, many big players in US (that's means Banks) already warned Biden administration on not weaponise financial market for political purpose. That will reduce credibility of Western Market and their currencies. It will hasten emergence of rival market and strengthen transactions using non Western financial medium. That's already happening, and let's see how Trump want to bargain on reducing the tides.

Russia knows that using USD on any direct transactions with USD is prohibited. Thus all Banks and not only Chinese Banks are prohibited to cater USD direct transactions with Russian Banks. So in the case of Russia complain on SCO using USD, it is potentially their and Chinese move to make other currencies (potentially Yuan) as part of official currencies on SCO transactions.

Something that rising tides of Dedolarisation that Trump want to reduce.
 
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Fredled

Active Member
Ananda said:
Clearly you are talking nonsense again.
I was writing by memory, but thanks to you, the link you provided confirmed what I said.
dw.com said:
Saudi Arabia is selling oil and gas to China. They get renminbi, which can be used to buy Chinese goods or to invest in China, which the Saudis have already done. It's a barter trade,
It doesn't say that they can use it to buy USD. And he is talking about Saudi Arabia, a country not under sanction.
Even countries not under sanction are paid in Yuans that allow them to buy things in China but doesn't allow them to buy currencies freely on international market (maybe they can but not on the market and not freely).
It is like that now, not 30 years ago.

And the reason is explained below:
dw.com said:
Despite moves by Beijing to internationalize, the Chinese currency is not yet fully convertible with other global currencies, which experts say is vital for it to become a reserve currency. Beijing maintains capital controls that restrict the free flow of capital in and out of the country.
In reality, it's possible to buy and sell USD with CNY on Chinese exchange but these CNY or USD bought with CNY can't leave the country unless you want to import something into China or, as a foreign investor or business in China, to repatriate profits from China to your own country. Moving profit out of China is regulated, difficult, and not to be taken for granted.

It's possible to trade CNY against other currencies, almost freely, on global markets, including western ones, in small amounts. Not by hundred of million dollars, and certainly not by the billions. This is allowed because the Bank of China allows CNY foreign trading in a limited and controlled manner.

Ananda said:
So that's mean they don't need as much as they used too.
That's what I said. As long as the regime hold their grip on power and is able produce 3 million artillery shells to destroy Ukrainian cities, they don't need anything.

Ananda said:
The Non Western currencies they hold can still be converted to Western ones as much as they need to, on other Non Western Market they still have access too. Especially in HongKong, Shanghai or Dubai.
No because the banks in HongKong, Shanghai or Dubai don't want to be struck be US sanctions, on top of inherent restriction on CNY trades by the Chinese government.
I know that Russian oligarchs are using their off shore dollars and possibly changed some RUB or even CNY to USD in Cyprus thanks to Cyprus and the EU tolerating it as long as the money stays mostly in Cyprus and the amounts are reasonable. They don't want the Cyprus economy to crash because Russian oligarchs can't pay for their stay there anymore.

If you think that I'm wrong, please provide evidence that Russia has bought a meaningful amount of USD with the CNY they got from China since mid 2022.
I will be more than glad to correct myself.
____________________

Ananada said:
Trump threatening BRICS that they will got 100% tariff they replace USD as Global Reserve.
Trump, once again, is off base and tells things that will worsen US relations with BRICS countries, uselessly, just because he says stupid things.

You said:
However it could be sign that Trump want to bargain and find compromises.
Could this also sign to Russia that he is open for negotiations on financial market access ?
Giving his past record and his past policies and past speeches on China and Latino countries, it's very unlikely. He hasn't changed since.
I would not see this extraordinary agressive statement to be an overture for political settlements with pro-Russia non-alligned countries. ;)

The West or Biden didn't weaponize the USD. They just applied sanctions that were obvious and widely expected when Russia invaded Ukraine.
Saying that the West weaponize while Russia is in war economy to destroy and invade another country is ridiculous. Of course we weaponze: Russia is an aggressor country, killing people, reducing entire cities into ruins, threatening peace in Europe. Nobody expected that we would stay idle, watching without reaction in our recliner armchair. There is a war going on, by God's Sake.
As I said before, at the risk of repeating myself, I don't think that Global South leaders are moron enough not to understand that.

They don't want to apply sanctions, not because they want to oppose the West, but because they want to buy cheap Russian oil. In fact Russia is a dwarf in the BRICS in term of economy and demography, and now even in term of military power where they lost all the prestige they had. Their only relevancy is the ability to provide oil cheaper than on regular markets. Those who apply sanctions also buy cheap oil indirectly but sometimes directly, and they buy gaz directly, in lesser quantities, but they don't get the private discount those who posture as "neutral" or pro-Russia enjoy.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
but thanks to you, the link you provided confirmed what I said.
The link talking about dedolarisation trend and clearly shown nothing of confirmation on any of your nonsense of how market work. Again you still talking unrelated issue to justify your nonsense understanding on Financial market.


Yuans that allow them to buy things in China but doesn't allow them to buy currencies freely on international market (maybe they can but not on the market and not freely).
It is like that now, not 30 years ago.

This is the explanation time line on Yuan/Riminbi (RMB) coverability. Anyway as you clearly have outdated understanding on the market, you acknowledge your understanding is 3 decades old.


the banks in HongKong, Shanghai or Dubai don't want to be struck be US sanctions, on top of inherent restriction on CNY trades by the Chinese government.


Simple googling will give you many articles that shown how Russia can still can get USD if they want to. Shown how 'grey' market rules enable them to do it. For us that work in Financial market, this kind of cutting corner transactions are not surprising. However seems for those who doesn't understand and clueless on Financial market but pretend knowing it, is beyond understanding.

but they are going to lose big on exchange rates and the larger the sums, the more difficult it gets.
The moment you talk exchange rates, shown clearly you don't know anything about how market work. There are no direct transactions for Ruble and USD. So why you talk exchange rate ? The cost is on finding medium that can exercise the exchange (or you can say 'grey' market). That's the costs, and I already say in the beginning it will costs the Russian more, but not making them unable to get USD if they want to. Still it is not stopping Russia to trade on Financial market, just like not stopping Russia on other trades.

you don;t understand that, then I don;t know what to say...
Sure, Russian elite leaders don't care as long as they keep the power and maintain their billionaire way of life, no matter how poor is the population.
Venezuela and DPRK are perfect examples of successful USD free economies.

As long as the regime hold their grip on power and is able produce 3 million artillery shells to destroy Ukrainian cities, they don't need anything.
You keep backtracking and circling around and when can't argue on the issue, talk on unrelated issue. They can get USD, but they don't need as much as USD as before. The context of debate was when you claim Russia can't get USD, then you are regressing to they can get USD but not in much quantities, then regressing again on non related issue toward initial argument on how USD can't find the way to Russian holds (when being shown the otherwise). This is just traits of argue for the sake of argumentative.

think that I'm wrong, please provide evidence that Russia has bought a meaningful amount of USD with the CNY they got from China since mid 2022.
I will be more than glad to correct myself.
I already shown link on how Chinese and Russia keeping their financing transaction working. Including how Chinese Banks and Financial Intermediaries still able to keep Russian Banks access to non friendly market. It is also done from other market that are still open to Russian. Now can you shown they (Russia) can not trade as you keep braging and talking nonsense?

All that is simply googling as this is already become known to many market practitioners. You have outdated understanding on the financial market, keep denying what actually happening presently, thus so clearly you don't have any intentions to have discussion, and more on bordering argumentative trolling.


West or Biden didn't weaponize the USD. They just applied sanctions that were obvious and widely expected when Russia invaded Ukraine.
Sanctions is weaponise the market for political confrontation.

is off base and tells things that will worsen US relations with BRICS countries, uselessly, just because he says stupid things.
Is he stupid or is he bargaining. Only time will tell.

don't want to apply sanctions, not because they want to oppose the West, but because they want to buy cheap Russian oil
I already say that few posts before, glad you finally understand that. Global South don't want to participate in the Western sanctions because it is against major energies supplier and participating only increase prices beyond affordability of most Global South. I Already talk that, seems you just finally understand that.

said before, at the risk of repeating myself, I don't think that Global South leaders are moron enough not to understand that.
No but some in West are either moron or delusional and outdated enough to think Global South will follow West wants, like in 20th century. Times change, situation on Geopolitics power share changes. Welcome to multipolar world. This is not 20th century cold war situation anymore.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
So, it is also can be read as opening the talk on changing rules on potentially using USD as the only currency on the organization budget. The potential alrernative currency clearly not Ruble, but one other currency that have shown increasing internasional usage.
 

Fredled

Active Member
@Ananda None of your links tell about Russia's ability to buy USD on these so called other markets that are still open to Russians. Let alone with non-convertible CNY (Russia is paid with non-convertible yuans, not with convertible Hing-Kong yuans). They don't say that Russia is able to do that. Nor do they show that Chinese banks keep Russian Banks access to non friendly market. This is clearly not true. They only show that Russia and China are still able to trade with each other. And that Russia is promoting among the BRICS solutions to evade sanctions.

This is very far from convincing. Either you provide a reliable source which explicitly explains how Russia is able to buy billions of USD with Yuans they got for oil shipments to China, and preferably some data showing that they did, or you stop telling that I don't know anything about the topic.

Ananada said:
Sanctions is weaponise the market for political confrontation.
What happens with Russia is not a political confrontation. It's a brutal war against Ukraine killing people everyday and threatening European security. We don't sanction Russia, and consequently Chinese banks who trade with Russia, for pleasure. We do it because we are forced to. We have to do it to preserve our own security. 7% of the Russian GDP is used to produce weapons and pay soldiers to come to Ukraine to kill people and at the same time, threaten Europe with military agression and even nuclear retaliation. Reducing Russian GDP directly reduces the threat to our security.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
None of your links tell about Russia's ability to buy USD on these so called other markets that are still open to Russians. Let alone with non-convertible CNY (Russia is paid with non-convertible yuans, not with convertible Hing-Kong yuans). They don't say that Russia is able to do that. Nor do they show that Chinese banks keep Russian Banks access to non friendly market. This is clearly not true. They only show that Russia and China are still able to trade with each other. And that Russia is promoting among the BRICS solutions to evade sanctions.
Seems you can't read the articles. The articles clearly say that Billions of USD found the way to Russia. The article on China-Russia shown how China using smaller banks to connect with Russian Banks with Chinese system and from that to the rest of World. If that doesn't happen, why do you think US keep increase tightening the USD transaction 'lid' ? Because they know the lid is porous, and Russia exploit that. It is already clear to anyone that understand real transactions. Why do you think US increase the sanctions to other parties outside Russia ? They doing it again to try tightening the lid.


However since you clearly don't understand anything about how real financial markets work, then off course you will keep denying reality. Also RMB is fully convertible and the article give time lime on when RMB become convertible. Btw, when you call Hongkong Yuan, shown another clear lack of knowledge on Financial market. There're big RMB market on Hongkong, but Hongkong using Hongkong Dollar. Another currency that's open to Russia, just like RMB, Dhirham, Rupee. Something by those in the grey market can be indirectly converting to any other currencies.

happens with Russia is not a political confrontation. It's a brutal war against Ukraine killing people everyday and threatening European security. We don't sanction Russia, and consequently Chinese banks who trade with Russia, for pleasure. We do it because we are forced to. We have to do it to preserve our own security.
Well that's West prerogative, but doesn't make rest of World has to follow West. Doesn't make the rest of the World, especially Global South shown Western tendencies to 'weaponise' currencies and financial market when someone not in line with West.

Like I said, your problem is to look only on Western perspective, and World now clearly not only work on Western perspective.

you stop telling that I don't know anything about the topic.
When you refuse to look on the the reality of financial transaction, clearly you don't understand anything on financial market topic, and just keep argue for the sake of argumentative.

Do you think those involve will report that kind of transaction? This is grey market, off course they are covering real transaction. However the reality still there USD still come to Russia hold, if Russia need it. Again USD still can be hold by Russian despite no Ruble to USD market, which's why prompt US continue tightening the transaction rules/lid to try cover the porous crack that Russia Exploit.

The previously unreported figures show Russia has managed to circumvent sanctions blocking cash imports, and suggest that dollars and euros remain useful tools for trade and travel even as Moscow strives to reduce its exposure to hard currencies.
Put it again the Reuters article, as now I shown article from Western sources. Still you call it don't prove anything. The reality is always being denies by those who find it contradict with their strong believe. Delusional perhaps ?

As the effort by US to tightening the USD transactions lid, the only sure thing for that is US forbid Global South from USD transactions. Biden try to increase the sanctions by tightening USD transactions toward parties in Global South. Something that increase Dedolarisation trend. While Trump now want BRICS (including Russia) and much of Global South stop the trend of dedolarisation. Something that can only be done by loosening what Biden lid put. Shown Trump potentially will reverse the policy.

I already shown how Russia can hold the forbidden currency something that you continue denies as understanbly you don't understand much on how Financial market can do. Now can you shown data that denies the reality that USD still flowing to Russia ? Cause if you don't, then shown you are talking nonsense on matter related to Financial transactions.
 
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Fredled

Active Member
@Ananda Please stop posting articles which are not talking about Russians accessing US dollars in 2023-2024 if you can't find any. Pointing to my lack of knowledge is not a valid argument.
Russia can still buy limited amounts of dollars with small banks hiding the data, arranging fraud schemes, but this is increasingly difficult and doesn't mean they have access to HK markets or other markets where they can purchase as many USD as they wish. Actually they smuggle gold and diamond out of Russia and smuggle US banknotes into Russia, notably across the border with Turkey and the UAE (and probably other countries). That's where they are at this point.
 

Redshift

Active Member
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GISReports ... Prince Michael of Liechtenstein.....


Basically factual whilst also biased reporting and generally critical of non conservative Western policies.

I'm not sure this do called "think tank" can be taken too seriously.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Please stop posting articles which are not talking about Russians accessing US dollars in 2023-2024 if you can't find any. Pointing to my lack of knowledge is not a valid argument.
Please stop trying to argue if you keep continue can't find any prove to shown how USD still can come to Russia. The article in Reuters already talk about it, but as usual you keep calling it as non prove. Shown your lack of knowledge as very valid argument. Again if Russia already has not Exploit USD transactions porous lophole, why do you think US keep increasing their effort to plug the lid ? That's reality that even US Financial authority knows.

Reuters article only talk physical notes movement, and they are not smuggle out of UAE or Turkey, but legally taken out from there as their market not sanctions Russia. This is big part of your shown your lack of knowledge of Financial market. You keep believe every other market outside West is sanctions Russia, because Western sanctions. They don't and you can't accept that reality.

limited amounts of dollars with small banks hiding the data, arranging fraud schemes, but this is increasingly difficult and doesn't mean they have access to HK markets or other markets where they can purchase as many USD as they wish. Actually they smuggle gold and diamond out of Russia and smuggle US banknotes into Russia, notably across the border with Turkey and the UAE (and probably other countries). That's where they are at this point.
  1. You begin this argument talking that Russia can't get USD after the sanctions, then back tracking to only small amount of USD.
  2. When I told you they don't need much USD as they are not trading with Western market anyway, you saying I don't understand anything. However then you back tracking saying because they don't trade with USD, they don't need much USD.
  3. You like to ask data or link to support my argument, but when the data and link shown otherwise you call that unrelated. While you also can't shown data or link to support your argument substansially.
This shown you like to argue for the sake argumentative, to cover your lack of knowledge of Financial market. When Russia still have access to other markets, then they can use that market to gain access to other global market that close to Russia. Off course the transaction will not be direct and it will costs Russia more.


Even Carnegie that are very bias against Russia acknowledge sanctions will not stop Russia trading in Financial market. However will costs them more. Something that I already stated from beginning. Still they have access through Market that's still open and they can find ways to circumvent Western sanctions, even it is going to costs them more. Only limited currency that open direct trade with Ruble, but not stoping them to gain access to forbidden currency if they need too.

Cutting off Russian banks from the SWIFT payment system, along with secondary sanctions, has proved a powerful incentive to accelerate the development of China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System, India’s Unified Payments Interface (UPI), and other alternatives. There is still a long way to go before there is a real threat to the dominance of the dollar, but the trend toward the fragmentation of the global financial system cannot be reversed now.
That's what Trump trying to reverse. Something that can only be done it US reduce the hurdle on using USD including to Russia. Now that reversing what Biden doing now.

Basically factual whilst also biased reporting and generally critical of non conservative Western policies.
Fact is fact, eventough the conclusions can be bias to their own agenda. Every 'think tank' doing it. That's think tank behavior as every think tank have agenda behind it. Liechtenstein is very big player in Global Financial market.
 
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