Russia - General Discussion.

[Ananda]

Anyway it is useless to continue this discussion. You clearly have your anti-western bias, and refuse to see the realities of Russian imperial ambitions.

On that we agree, it is useless to argue with someone like you who clearly have only Western bias. As for me, I don't have anti west bias. I do realize what both Russian and West position, and nobody is an angel.

You say I don't understand the way of Russian thinking, well seems you are also the same. As all you can put is only talk Russia can not be trusted. So yes it is useless to argue with someone that refuse to see other perspective outside established Western ones.

We do not think everyone except us is wrong.
Russia's demands are perfectly legit from their point of view.

Well at least you're honest on that. Not try to cover it as Western more rightous action, and everything else what Russia did is wrong. Both West and Russia doing and taking their path to cover their interest. That's realities in this world.

 

[John Fedup]

Is a discussion of the West and Russia, from a geopolitical perspective, realistic? Putin and his oligarch allies are IMHO a very large criminal organization. Unfortunately they have a nuclear arsenal. If they didn’t, then the proper method of dealing with a criminal organization would apply, eradicatiion.

 

[SolarisKenzo]

Is a discussion of the West and Russia, from a geopolitical perspective, realistic? Putin and his oligarch allies are IMHO a very large criminal organization. Unfortunately they have a nuclear arsenal. If they didn’t, then the proper method of dealing with a criminal organization would apply, eradicatiion.

100% agree on that.

 

[seaspear]

Churchills comment of "Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma" still seems fresh today as when he first stated this back in 1939 but it is the leadership of Russia who control ,and I mean this word in the fullest sense their people using similar methods of the communist regime from earlier periods Putin signs law against ‘fake’ news in Russia, as independent media struggles for survival - The Washington Post
Russia's Media Is All Putin's Now After Shutdown of Independent Papers and TV (foreignpolicy.com)
Certainly the Nazi's had similar methods of media control to control the beliefs of their population
Nazi And Soviet Propaganda's Shared Aesthetic (rferl.org)

 

[Vivendi]

Russia ended 2022 with a deficit of 3.3 trillion rubles, or $47.3 billion. The deficit contrasted sharply with a budget surplus of $6.7 billion in 2021. The only year Russia experienced a larger deficit was in 2020 during the covid pandemic, when it hit 4.1 trillion rubles, or $55 billion at the time.

Sales by AvtoVAZ, the Russian auto manufacturer that produces Lada, had decreased by 46 percent compared with 2021. Giant budget deficit and anti-gay legal case show fallout of Russia’s war - The Washington Post

Clearly the 2022 Ukraine invasion has been very costly to Russia. Could the sanctions also have an impact?
There is also the "oil price cap" -- not sure if it's the reason but at least some analysts claim that it is reducing Russian income by USD 170 million per day. Report: Russia is Losing $170M a Day Due to Oil Price Cap (maritime-executive.com) -- whatever the reason, the reduced income on oil is clearly an issue for Russia.

In the meantime, the US, Europe, Canada, Australia and others keep supporting Ukraine, both militarily and financially. Russia will probably experience even higher economic pain in 2023 than what it did in 2022.

 

[SolarisKenzo]

As reported by the EU institutions, the European Union aims to start joint energy procurement and gas purchase within the next 2/3 months.

Joint gas purchasing: The ad hoc Steering Board of the EU Energy Platform meets for the first time

Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič chaired the first formal meeting of the Steering Board of the EU Energy Platform.

energy.ec.europa.eu

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/eu-commission-wants-first-joint-purchases-of-gas-by-summer

It will be interesting to see how this will affect the market...

 

[ngatimozart]

Australian item on the life expectancy of Russian oligarchs. They are prone to a medical condition known as Sudden Russian Death Syndrome (SRDS).

 

[John Fedup]

This article suggests sanctions may be starting to have significant consequences for the production of military kit, especially aerospace which requires sophisticated chips that can’t be scavenged from lower end consumer devices. Interesting comments about motivation wrt those in charge of production facilities.

Putin's comments underline growing Russian concern over jet, tank production - Breaking Defense

Experienced observers of Russia’s defense sector point out that the US-led sanctions have a disproportionate effect on aerospace production, more so than any other sector.

breakingdefense.com

 

[Feanor]

This article suggests sanctions may be starting to have significant consequences for the production of military kit, especially aerospace which requires sophisticated chips that can’t be scavenged from lower end consumer devices. Interesting comments about motivation wrt those in charge of production facilities.

Putin's comments underline growing Russian concern over jet, tank production - Breaking Defense

Experienced observers of Russia’s defense sector point out that the US-led sanctions have a disproportionate effect on aerospace production, more so than any other sector.

breakingdefense.com

It's a very long and very vague article based on very little data. Here's a chart of Russian domestic aircraft procurement. It doesn't look like the production went down in 2022. Rather the end of GPV-2020 and the more limited funding for GPV-2027 has a lot to do with this reduction in procurement. And if you look at production of the Su-34, you can see that replacing 18 shot down aircraft can be done in ~2 years without much difficulty. While it's entirely possible that aerospace production is impacted by sanctions (it would certainly make sense), this article doesn't show that.

https://ic.pics.livejournal.com/bmpd/38024980/10015394/10015394_1000.jpg

 

[John Fedup]

If it takes 2 years to replace 18 shot down aircraft it explains the extremely cautious utilization of fighter aircraft. We forget this conflict hasn’t hit the one year mark yet so another 6-12 months should give better data assuming this unfortunate shitshow continues.

 

[seaspear]

The discussion is about the production of aircraft under difficulties with supplies of various microchips , but is it also fair to ask if maintenance for the rest of the current air force is also impacted by this and if there are many air craft with the status of "hangar queens"

 

[Vivendi]

It's a very long and very vague article based on very little data. Here's a chart of Russian domestic aircraft procurement. It doesn't look like the production went down in 2022.

I would expect Russia to hoard key components and in particular Western electronics before February 24 2022... If they did, then, even if sanctions are 100% effective, you would probably not see much impact on production until those storages have been emptied.

 

[Vanquish]

It's a very long and very vague article based on very little data. Here's a chart of Russian domestic aircraft procurement. It doesn't look like the production went down in 2022. Rather the end of GPV-2020 and the more limited funding for GPV-2027 has a lot to do with this reduction in procurement. And if you look at production of the Su-34, you can see that replacing 18 shot down aircraft can be done in ~2 years without much difficulty. While it's entirely possible that aerospace production is impacted by sanctions (it would certainly make sense), this article doesn't show that.

https://ic.pics.livejournal.com/bmpd/38024980/10015394/10015394_1000.jpg

I'm wondering though, even if you are capable of building the aircraft are they actually up to full capability and spec. For example a lot of North American auto manufacturers were building vehicles that they had to park while they awaited computer chips to actually fully finish the vehicles. Then they stopped producing certain vehicles and shipping other high value vehicles out missing some of their full option capability to hopefully be installed later when the chips become available. I doubt you would want to fly an aircraft that wasn't fully capable but you could build it.

 

[Feanor]

I'm wondering though, even if you are capable of building the aircraft are they actually up to full capability and spec. For example a lot of North American auto manufacturers were building vehicles that they had to park while they awaited computer chips to actually fully finish the vehicles. Then they stopped producing certain vehicles and shipping other high value vehicles out missing some of their full option capability to hopefully be installed later when the chips become available. I doubt you would want to fly an aircraft that wasn't fully capable but you could build it.

Not sure how we would find out. The chart is not production but handovers to the VVS.

I would expect Russia to hoard key components and in particular Western electronics before February 24 2022... If they did, then, even if sanctions are 100% effective, you would probably not see much impact on production until those storages have been emptied.

Good point. But again my critique was of the article not of the situation. It's entirely possible this effect is being had. It's just not in evidence.

 

[John Fedup]

I would expect Russia to hoard key components and in particular Western electronics before February 24 2022... If they did, then, even if sanctions are 100% effective, you would probably not see much impact on production until those storages have been emptied.

I guess the other side of the coin is why would they bother to hoard? They expected a slam donk victory within a few weeks with minimal Euro outrage. I am sure they stocked up on some critical components but not likely for much more than 6 months.

 

[Vivendi]

I guess the other side of the coin is why would they bother to hoard? They expected a slam donk victory within a few weeks with minimal Euro outrage. I am sure they stocked up on some critical components but not likely for much more than 6 months.

I am not so sure -- even if they assumed a "slam donk victory", they should still expect quite major sanctions after launching an illegal, unprovoked invasion of the largest country in Europe. The annexation of Crimea and placement of soldiers in Eastern Ukraine already triggered several sanctions. Taking the whole country and either jailing or killing the democratically elected leaders would definitely trigger much more significant sanctions.

And don't forget the importance and significance of the Budapest memorandum. Russia already trampled upon on it in 2014: by invading the whole country they are now peeing on it.

 

[SolarisKenzo]

Evidences that Russia was ready to invade since at least december 2021 are clear.
Money movements, energy prices, changes in russian major companies boards.
Did they also prepare for a 1 year long war with sanctions and massive military aid to Ukraine from NATO, stocking up critical components? Who knows...

 

[Big_Zucchini]

USA to transfer 300k 155mm shells from WRSA-I, the War Reserve Stockpiles for Allies - Israel, to Ukraine, a huge stash of munitions established after the Yom Kippur War, from which Israel draws to replenish after every major military operation.
Israel gave its consent to the transfer.

US quietly shipping ammo to Ukraine from massive stockpile in Israel — report

New York Times says 300,000 artillery shells to be sent to Kyiv's forces from American supplies kept in Israel for emergency use

www.timesofisrael.com

How will it affect relations with Russia? Unknown. But some speculate it may be some retaliation for Russia's improving relations with Iran.

 

[Feanor]

USA to transfer 300k 155mm shells from WRSA-I, the War Reserve Stockpiles for Allies - Israel, to Ukraine, a huge stash of munitions established after the Yom Kippur War, from which Israel draws to replenish after every major military operation.
Israel gave its consent to the transfer.

US quietly shipping ammo to Ukraine from massive stockpile in Israel — report

New York Times says 300,000 artillery shells to be sent to Kyiv's forces from American supplies kept in Israel for emergency use

www.timesofisrael.com

How will it affect relations with Russia? Unknown. But some speculate it may be some retaliation for Russia's improving relations with Iran.

If that's the logic, it's a moot effort. Russia has to improve relations with Iran. Nobody else is willing to back Russia's war effort. From the looks of it, not even China.

 

[seaspear]

There are also claims from the U.S that North Korea is supplying artillery shells to Russia from its stockpiles ,this is hard to prove unlike the Iranian drones flown in
Is Russia Receiving Weapons From North Korea? - The Moscow Times