Middle East Defence & Security

[Big_Zucchini]

Counter examples, Big Z?

Excuse me for defaulting to the example I know best - Israel.
Netanyahu met with him quite frequently, and there were even more frequent exchanges of high ranking figures.
This likely contributed greatly to the significant increase in US-Israel cooperation and alignment on the middle eastern war.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

So Trump is again doing his ping pong rhetoric, but the common theme in every message is "the war must end soon".
I think we're all in agreement, on all sides, that wars should ideally be quick and if it could end then it'd be good.

But the way things are headed, I think the final outcome may be bad for all sides.
IDF is moving to implement early stages of the Gaza City campaign. It could choose to stop at the outskirts, or go for the whole city and flatten it.
Regardless, it's shaping up to a situation where the IDF permanently holds a significant, deep perimeter around Gaza, and corridors dissecting it.

Why is it bad for Israel? Because that forgoes several critical war objectives, particularly those referring to a day after.

Why is it bad for Hamas? Because they're exhausted and their potential for reconstitution is just a fraction of its pre war condition. No construction materials and machinery are coming in, hence no terrain modification.

And there's the wildcard that is the hostages. Most of the remaining ones are dead, so less valuable no matter how cruel that sounds.
We don't know what Hamas is asking for them. But it can only be bad for Israel.
The universal truth is that the fewer remain, the more difficult they are to get out. It is possible the last hostage deal has shut that door in our faces. And so it is realistic that Israel will for the first time say "No, there's a price too high."


In the situation described, does the war really end?
I think it'll be more of a media perception thing.
The next stage may initiate. Not one between Israel and Hamas, but a Gazan civil war between Hamas and other factions. Factions that need time and resources to recruit, train, and take action, yet need to be on a leash to not turn into another Hamas.

Even if they win, it won't result in a demilitarized Gaza. It will just be differently militarized. Going forward from there will be a difficult challenge that will require a lot of hands on approach from Israel and the US (if the latter wants to shape things).

Important visual context to this post:

I also recommend following him:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1962714830982238487

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Regarding Gaza City campaign, it's generally assumed that it'll culminate in the city being flattened, and tunnels being methodically demolished or sealed.
For that, the IDF is reportedly rushing additional M113 based VBIEDs.
Since the entire city is boobytrapped, there is no option but to scan, map, and demolish every building individually. To risk fewer soldiers, who have already died from such traps, the army is using VBIEDs on a larger scale. I assume to create more controlled blasts on precise locations.

To clear an entire city, however, you need to move its people out. For that purpose, various aid organizations brought in large amounts of tents, and Israel is setting up a second power line for water desalination in Gaza. Additionally, water pipes are being laid from Egypt to Gaza.
And as you can see in the post above, Israel operates a desalination plant along the Gaza coastline.
The goal is to get ~800,000 people to evacuate to humanitarian zones, otherwise the operational tempo will come to a crawl.

UAE opens pipeline to channel desalinated water from Egypt to southern Gaza

Project expected to provide clean drinking water to hundreds of thousands in al-Mawasi area, where many displaced Gazans reside

www.timesofisrael.com

 

[Big_Zucchini]

IDF is now targeting high rise buildings.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1963922731608539641

We've seen this tactic in Operation Rising Dawn in 2022, but for a different purpose. Then it was a counter-value strike.
Today the considerations are different. Palestinians are refusing to leave Gaza City, so I'm assuming the IDF conducts high profile deterring strikes, and to reduce living space in Gaza City to make it a worse QoL alternative to Mawasi.

 

[Feanor]

IDF is now targeting high rise buildings.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1963922731608539641

We've seen this tactic in Operation Rising Dawn in 2022, but for a different purpose. Then it was a counter-value strike.
Today the considerations are different. Palestinians are refusing to leave Gaza City, so I'm assuming the IDF conducts high profile deterring strikes, and to reduce living space in Gaza City to make it a worse QoL alternative to Mawasi.

How is this not a war crime? The target is civilian housing being targeted for the purpose of destroying civilian housing. Is that correct? There's no claim that Hamas is sitting inside and are the true target of the strike?

 

[KipPotapych]

How is this not a war crime? The target is civilian housing being targeted for the purpose of destroying civilian housing. Is that correct? There's no claim that Hamas is sitting inside and are the true target of the strike?

It’s a part of the voluntary relocation plan. It’s not a war crime if you believe it isn’t. There is a difference set of rules here, clearly.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

How is this not a war crime? The target is civilian housing being targeted for the purpose of destroying civilian housing. Is that correct? There's no claim that Hamas is sitting inside and are the true target of the strike?

No, that is not correct. I wonder why all the questions about "war crime this, war crime that". These are fairly trivial things.
The IDF has at any point in time a target bank, pinning location and various intel items.
These targets are categorized, and the IDF can at any point decide what target categories to prioritize.

High rise buildings are likely considered high value targets, so escalatory.
It makes sense for the IDF to maintain an escalation ladder and not go all in for many reasons, and one of them is pressure management to get hostage deals. If the IDF applies full pressure right at the start, Hamas will eventually adapt and IDF will remain without options.

That building was likely in the target bank, meaning it was likely incriminated beforehand with intel of usage by Hamas. That would be logical. High rise buildings are very useful for surveillance, storage, work space, firing positions, and communications. Their residential nature provides them added shielding.
Overall it provides high military value or advantage to militants.

The strike on foundations and downward collapse, requiring both high expertise from pilots in releasing at a specific time, angle, and direction, and preliminary mission parameters preparation by various officers with expertise in demolition, indicate this target existed in the target bank for a while and with above average intelligence resources.

The target also received about an hour of evacuation time.
And this building specifically is confirmed to have been incriminated via Hamas's media channel posting about activity in that building.

To summarize:
Plenty of indicators that the target was in the target bank.
Target was struck according to SOP.
Therefore no deviation from LOAC/IHL is indicated.

 

[KipPotapych]

High value tsrgets:

Even before the plan to occupy Gaza City began to materialize, satellite images reveal that in recent weeks the IDF has destroyed large parts of the city and other areas in the northern Gaza Strip. The images from Planet Labs PBC show areas of the city on July 17 and then again on August 25. In the neighborhoods of Shujaiyeh, Zeitoun and Tuffah, most of the urban space appears to have been flattened by the IDF, with many buildings that were intact in the early images appearing completely destroyed in the later ones.





From: New satellite images show: Gaza City neighborhoods have already been destroyed

More here:

Satellite images show tent camps emptied as IDF expands Gaza City operation

Satellite images taken over and around Gaza City point to preparations for the expanded military operation and show signs internally displaced people are already fleeing.

abcnews.go.com

Gazan city of Khan Yunis is almost completely leveled, satellite images show

Israel's ground offensive has caused massive destruction in the Gaza Strip. Recent satellite photos show that the Israeli military has nearly completely razed the second-largest city in the Palestinian enclave.

www.lemonde.fr

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/28/world/middleeast/gaza-city-zeitoun-destruction.html

When one thinks most of everyone is a Hamas operative, one feels justified to level the entire “country”, smack anyone they like, etc. Worst case scenario declare to have had investigated oneself and found justification of one’s actions. It’s rather insane, but I guess whatever works. Then annex the entire area in the name of self-defence and security.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

When one thinks most of everyone is a Hamas operative, one feels justified to level the entire “country”

What do buildings have to do with ID'ing personnel?

Worst case scenario declare to have had investigated oneself and found justification of one’s actions.

You seem to refer to a case involving a strike that was done opposite to the SOP. Would you rather the relevant bodies NOT issue an apology and announce an investigation?
Do you think that armed forces generally should not be accountable for conduct?

High value tsrgets:

Even before the plan to occupy Gaza City began to materialize, satellite images reveal that in recent weeks the IDF has destroyed large parts of the city and other areas in the northern Gaza Strip. The images from Planet Labs PBC show areas of the city on July 17 and then again on August 25. In the neighborhoods of Shujaiyeh, Zeitoun and Tuffah, most of the urban space appears to have been flattened by the IDF, with many buildings that were intact in the early images appearing completely destroyed in the later ones.

I do not believe these are treated as high value targets in the same sense. A demolition operation is ongoing to deny Hamas a key pillar of its war strategy, to deny it future advantages, and to reduce risk to troops following several tragic high casualty events.
So I believe the operational outlook there is less as individual buildings being individual targets, but areas to be cleared of things like tunnels, boobytraps, and rubble piles which can be great concealment.

You mentioned there Shujaiyeh, Zeitoun, and Tuffah. I don't remember much about Tuffah, but Shujaiyeh and Zeitoun were historically Hamas's largest strongholds. Areas the IDF preferred to largely skip in previous wars due to the anticipated intensity and high costs involved.
To see that it's been cleared with very little cost involved is a tremendous tactical feat.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

We are seeing civilian movements westward from Gaza City.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1964303105438175506

Hamas is panicking, urging people to stay.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1964236855206940980

Hamas claim to have killed a person going to Mawasi (humanitarian zone).

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1964246485110763751

Time will tell if this pressure is enough for Hamas. Both sides are playing chicken right now. Losing Gaza City is a huge threat to Hamas. That's their stronghold, and rival groups are grabbing more control in other areas. But Israel is unlikely to continue south after the Gaza City campaign ends.
If Hamas cracks, there can be a hostage deal. If they persevere, we'll likely see them moving to fight a civil war in the south-west.