Middle East Defence & Security

[Big_Zucchini]

Brief context:
UAE + Saudi are in anti-Houthi coalition. Both support different Yemeni factions.
UAE-backed faction called STC recently occupied significant and strategically valuable territories from Saudi-backed faction.
They (UAE-backed STC) now want to cede from Yemen and form South Yemen.
Saudi Arabia wants to maintain Yemeni integrity.
Saudi Arabia warned UAE to withdraw and conducted a strike on a UAE arms shipment to STC.

The strike:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2005895322652856787

Consequently,

UAE announces:

In light of recent developments and their potential implications for the safety and effectiveness of counterterrorism missions, the Ministry of Defence announces the termination of the remaining counterterrorism personnel in Yemen of its own volition, in a manner that ensures the safety of its personnel and in coordination with the concerned partners.

Full statement:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2006016164863045753

(For brevity, Saudi Arabia = Saudia)

Factors:

1. Saudia keeps resisting normalization with Israel, even for significant returns.
2. Saudia and Turkey are competing for islamic world leadership.
   1. Turkey uses anti-Israel rhetoric (but not action) for that.
   2. Saudia may be emulating in fear.
3. UAE invested heavily in its relations with Israel.
   1. Imports weapons.
   2. Booming bilateral trade (>$3 billion in 2024).
4. Israeli recognition of Somaliland emphasizes trend of regional separatism.
5. UAE-backed STC at the same time occupied territories corresponding to historical South Yemen.
6. UAE claim to have caved in but STC maintains control for now.
7. Saudia is developing its MIC too little too late.
   1. UAE has made significant progress meanwhile.
   2. Meaning growing disparity in power projection capability.

Opinion:

1. UAE-Israel coalition is forming above the Abraham Accords.
2. Saudia, Turkey, UAE+Israel emerging as competitors in the significant existing power vacuum.
3. Conflict is replaced with conflict, and that's good. Keeps everyone on their toes.
4. Saudia miscalculated and would be better served in a Abrahamic coalition with UAE+Israel.

 

[Ananda]

Iran protesters try to break into gov’t building as demonstrations continue

A woman was arrested and three security personnel injured in the incident, according to Iranian media reports.

www.aljazeera.com

For all the street protest that Iran Mullah regime face so far, I do see this as the most serious one. Because it is have unified demand on economic problem. Most Dictatorial regime fall not on grievance of human rights, social injustice etc, but on grass root level economic grievances.

Even Rich Iran under Shah regime, fall due to economic inequalities and corruption more then dictatorial human right problem. Grass roots economic hard ship is the biggest weapon of all throughout history on tooling down any regime.

However anti shah movement in 70's have unifying figure like Khomeini. While at this one I still don't see unifying figure like that emerge. The fail for more secular forces in Iran during anti Shah to come out with figure that can be sell, is in my opinion the biggest reason why Islamic Republic come out as winner.

At this moment the Republican Guard seems still strong and Iran Armed Forces still behind the regime. When it is begin to cracking down, then we can see more serious threat to the regime.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

For all the street protest that Iran Mullah regime face so far, I do see this as the most serious one. Because it is have unified demand on economic problem. Most Dictatorial regime fall not on grievance of human rights, social injustice etc, but on grass root level economic grievances.

Yeah I agree.