Future of JSF?

rossfrb_1

Member
I suspect that this may be a load of codswallop. Has anyone else heard/read anything?

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2095-1902806,00.html

"Britain in battle with US over fighter plane
Peter Almond and Dominic O'Connell
BRITAIN is threatening to pull out of the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF), a co-operative combat-aircraft project with America that is one of the largest military programmes in the world. The move, confirmed to The Sunday Times by senior defence officials, could have serious repercussions for BAE Systems and Rolls-Royce, Britain’s two main contributors to the project......."

The reasons I don't believe it is true.
A) I haven't read about this anywhere else
B) RAF/RN defence policy is so STOVL oriented - there are no competitors, the poms just couldn't pull out.
C) Talk of modifying the Typhoon for carrier use seems just too preposterous. There'd have to be a major design overhaul just on the landing gear alone.
But I'm sure the poms, prolly just like everyone else (non US) who have signed up, are probably getting cheesed off over the technology transfer issues. I suspect that this story may be one way for the poms to let the yanks know that they are getting pissed off.

cheers
rb
 

LancerMc

New Member
Well as far I have heard on my end the MoD is still in the project. MoD has been complaining ever since the project began, has many other nations including I believe Australia, Denmark, and Turkey because of Lockheed Martin's lack of outside help in development and future production deals for parts. It's not like I can blame the MoD because LM has reputation for doing this kind of work.

The STOVL design has recently seen heavy setbacks due to the weight and cost of the lift fan design. The lift fan drive shaft puts out the force of Aegis class crusier drive shaft which is describes the power and complexity of the fan design. The British heavy reliance of STOVL design for its future carrier use is probably misguided, since the U.S. Navy doesn't want anything to do with STOVL design. If the Royal Navy really wants the big conventional carrier like the U.S. they will need conventional and STOVL aircraft. The STOVL design while expensive and having problems will not be shelved because of the Marine Corps and now the interest of the USAF to buy them to replace the A-10 & AV-8B+.

If the MoD did pull out of the program it will deal a major blow to program but I would think it would still continue. The British would be left to the fact their not developing a next generation STOVL fighter, and it will probably cost more and they would not get any production rights in the JSF. This would make the buying of the JSF much more cost prohibative in the future in these days of MoD tight military budgets.

As you said redesigning the Eurofighter would be a extremely poor idea. The production is way behind schedule as it is, and will get worse when production is redirected to Austria for it's order. A big reminder should be the redesign of the F-4 Phantom II with a British Spey engine. The result was a F-4 under powered compared to the USN and USAF versions and cost 250% more to make the U.S. production models.

So I hope the MoD doesn't pull out, because they will regret it when they want to procure the JSF in the future.
 

Dr Phobus

New Member
Hello,

I agree with views on the aboves articles perspective, (but may I say how well argued it was) the VSTOL version will be built, and looks like the Spanish, Italians and the Australians (all building large LPH like vessels) and even Japan are all interested in the design, albeit on a much much smaller scale. It's the age of expeditionary warfare gentlemen, therefore the USMC want 480, USAF (100 plus), plus another 20-40 from smaller orders. If you consider the British order of 150, then you looking at an order book of at least 750 plans. Not a bad order book for a variant. How many Raptors (179), Rafael's (240) & Typhoons (638+) are on order ? So I think the JSF VSTOL will be built, it represents the future of warfare in many ways, when one considers the role of expeditionary warfare, which is also a naval trend also. The tecnical problems will be solved in time, all major projects have there problems.

The problems with LM, work share and technology transfer are certainly very real. Many nations are frustrated by apparent lack of work share, technology transfer and technological input. I do not know, but i wonder what exactly these various nations were "promised" when they gave their millions and billions to LM/US government ?

I look forward to peoples thoughts
 
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highsea

New Member
LancerMc said:
Well as far I have heard on my end the MoD is still in the project. MoD has been complaining ever since the project began, has many other nations including I believe Australia, Denmark, and Turkey because of Lockheed Martin's lack of outside help in development and future production deals for parts. It's not like I can blame the MoD because LM has reputation for doing this kind of work.
Dr Phobus said:
The problems with LM, work share and technology transfer are certainly very real. Many nations are frustrated by apparent lack of work share, technology transfer and technological input. I do not know, but i wonder what exactly these various nations were "promised" when they gave their millions and billions to LM/US government ?
Britain is the only Level1 partner, with a expected investment of ~$2 bn. USD. The Netherlands and Italy are Level 2 partners, with an investment of ~$800 Mil. and $1Bn. each. The other partners are all Level 3, and have investments of ~$100-$150 Mil. each. This is not a very large percentage of the program costs ($244 Bn. USD), and considering that BAE already has some sizeable portions of the construction contracts (aft fuselage and empennage, horizontal and vertical stabs, crew life support systems, fuel system, flight control systems and EW suite), I think they are doing fine considering their investment. Their only real complaint is that we are holding back the source codes for weapons integration.
LancerMc said:
The STOVL design has recently seen heavy setbacks due to the weight and cost of the lift fan design.
The weight issues with the "B" variant have long been sorted out, albeit at a cost of reduced warload (no 2,000 lb. JDAMS). Over a ton of weight has been shed.
 

KGB

New Member
It is true that while during the First Gulf war the majority of the airstrikes were carried out by the F-16, during the second gulf war, it was the Harrier that had this distinction? I understand that it was the limited basing of the US during the second gulf war that caused this. If this is true then the JSF STOVL's future will probably be assured; too much potential utility.
 

Izzy1

Banned Member
The investment at BAE's plant at Salmesbury alone for JCA/JSF production should be taken into consideration here.

I would also tempt the question that if the UK was "given" the rights to fully produce all European-destined F-35s (which BAE and the UK Government have been after all along), I'm certain the code spat would quickly dissapear!!
 

Dr Phobus

New Member
Izzy1 said:
The investment at BAE's plant at Salmesbury alone for JCA/JSF production should be taken into consideration here.

I would also tempt the question that if the UK was "given" the rights to fully produce all European-destined F-35s (which BAE and the UK Government have been after all along), I'm certain the code spat would quickly dissapear!!
Izzy, I too heard about the production line, my question is do you know that the UK will be build some or all of the European JSF's, it sounds "great" but i argue that the Turks, Dutch, and Italians will be building there own, or at least from kits. Any one have any thoughts or information ?

I do agree that the JSF and the UK's MOD's problems will be resolved. However, the Americans also need to know they can not call all the shots and that the UK does have other options

for those that celebrate it Merry Xmas :xmas :xmas :xmas
 

Crusader2000

Banned Member
Dr Phobus said:
Izzy, I too heard about the production line, my question is do you know that the UK will be build some or all of the European JSF's, it sounds "great" but i argue that the Turks, Dutch, and Italians will be building there own, or at least from kits. Any one have any thoughts or information ?

I do agree that the JSF and the UK's MOD's problems will be resolved. However, the Americans also need to know they can not call all the shots and that the UK does have other options

for those that celebrate it Merry Xmas :xmas

Just politics and I have faith that both the UK and US will work it out!:D Really, alot is on the line for everyone involved.:smash "TALK ABOUT STRESS":gun


FLY NAVY:cool:
 

Izzy1

Banned Member
Agreed Crusader, too much money, sweat and tears have gone into JCA/JSF for it to be allowed to flounder.

It would also be open season for us Europeans in the World fighter market, and I can't see America letting that happen!!

In regards the UK and European production, both BAE Systems and the UK Government are suggesting it as a compromise to the code-release issue, but I seriously doubt it will happen. Turkey, Italy and the Netherlands would certainly demand license production "in some form".
 

Crusader2000

Banned Member
Izzy1 said:
Agreed Crusader, too much money, sweat and tears have gone into JCA/JSF for it to be allowed to flounder.

It would also be open season for us Europeans in the World fighter market, and I can't see America letting that happen!!

In regards the UK and European production, both BAE Systems and the UK Government are suggesting it as a compromise to the code-release issue, but I seriously doubt it will happen. Turkey, Italy and the Netherlands would certainly demand license production "in some form".


Really, I don't think some realise how much is at stake with the JSF Program? It could in the end be bigger than say the F-16 and F/A-18 Programs combined!:rolleyes:

Also, I think it will give the UK a tactical Air Force second only to the US Air Forces. (i.e. USAF, USN, and USMC) :D
 

LancerMc

New Member
I just picked up the current issue of Air Forces Monthly. It has some stats about the the shape of the program.

Its contract value: 2.57 billion pounds
In Service Date: Initially 2012
Overspend: 782 million pounds
Delay: 36 months as of Oct 05
 

Dr Phobus

New Member
I agree with izzy, the american's will be risking to much to start making the eurpoeam nations unhappy, especially the British. There will compromise some-what. After all, the americans are not invinsibile, look at the commerical aircraft sector and the military helicopter sector both significantly effected by airbus and eurocopter. Never will the americans dominate in those area's again.

:fly
 

Crusader2000

Banned Member
Dr Phobus said:
I agree with izzy, the american's will be risking to much to start making the eurpoeam nations unhappy, especially the British. There will compromise some-what. After all, the americans are not invinsibile, look at the commerical aircraft sector and the military helicopter sector both significantly effected by airbus and eurocopter. Never will the americans dominate in those area's again.

:fly

The US will never dominate in those area's again? That's a bold statement! What leads you to believe that will be the case???? So, I guess the French, Russians, and Western Europeans will never lead in Fighter Design again too!:eek:nfloorl:
 

Izzy1

Banned Member
Crusader2000 said:
Really, I don't think some realise how much is at stake with the JSF Program? It could in the end be bigger than say the F-16 and F/A-18 Programs combined!:rolleyes:

Also, I think it will give the UK a tactical Air Force second only to the US Air Forces. (i.e. USAF, USN, and USMC) :D

Agreed, BAE Systems effectively hedged its bets when it pushed the UK Government to become a Level 1 partner in the JCA/JSF Programme.

It knows that F-35 is always going to be a big-seller - I do wonder though if it will ever challenge F-16 prodcution figures?? But from the BAE perspective, serious involvement with JCA/JSF, Eurofighter production and the marketing deal with SAAB for Grippen, puts the company in a very strong position with regards the future fighter aircraft market.

One lesser observed reason with regards why BAE was so eager to get involved on F-35 (and even more eager to see it continue), was the link up as well with Northrop Grumman, the other major subcontractor on the programme. BAE's current commercial plan is to greatly expand its US market (the buying of United Defence for example). BAE Systems sells more to the US than it does to its "home" market in the UK/Europe. Thats why, unlike EADS, they wont sell to China (in fear of jepordising those US contracts) and why, in my opinion, they would give up their share in Airbus to fund a merger with the likes of Northrop Grumman or Raytheon.
 

Crusader2000

Banned Member
Izzy1 said:
Agreed, BAE Systems effectively hedged its bets when it pushed the UK Government to become a Level 1 partner in the JCA/JSF Programme.

It knows that F-35 is always going to be a big-seller - I do wonder though if it will ever challenge F-16 prodcution figures?? But from the BAE perspective, serious involvement with JCA/JSF, Eurofighter production and the marketing deal with SAAB for Grippen, puts the company in a very strong position with regards the future fighter aircraft market.

One lesser observed reason with regards why BAE was so eager to get involved on F-35 (and even more eager to see it continue), was the link up as well with Northrop Grumman, the other major subcontractor on the programme. BAE's current commercial plan is to greatly expand its US market (the buying of United Defence for example). BAE Systems sells more to the US than it does to its "home" market in the UK/Europe. Thats why, unlike EADS, they wont sell to China (in fear of jepordising those US contracts) and why, in my opinion, they would give up their share in Airbus to fund a merger with the likes of Northrop Grumman or Raytheon.
Personally, I think the JSF will easily exceed the F-16 in numbers. Which, is why the JSF Program is so important. With thousands of 4th generation F-14's, F-15's, F-16's, F/A-18's, AV-8's, A-10's and alike in need of replacement. Further, the F-35B with its VTOL capabilities will open a whole new world! Every navy in the World will want some for Carriers and LHA/D's......the Sky's the Limit with the JSF.:D
 

Dr Phobus

New Member
Crusader2000 said:
The US will never dominate in those area's again? That's a bold statement! What leads you to believe that will be the case???? So, I guess the French, Russians, and Western Europeans will never lead in Fighter Design again too!:eek:nfloorl:
yes it is a bold statement and a true one, Boeing and american helicopter industry, yes they are both big and world players, but cast your mind back 20-30 yrs, they dominated. No longer do they. Boeing and airbus will be on a par with one anoher, and american helo industry will not domnate eurocopter. I am talking about numbers of sales both domestic and international.

In relation to figther design, the europeans missed out big when the french pulled out of EFA program. Imagine but now EFA would have been in full production wuith at least 900 on the order books. Instead you have a Rafale and typhoon competition. I hope they do not mak ethe same mistake with neuron.
 

Crusader2000

Banned Member
Dr Phobus said:
yes it is a bold statement and a true one, Boeing and american helicopter industry, yes they are both big and world players, but cast your mind back 20-30 yrs, they dominated. No longer do they. Boeing and airbus will be on a par with one anoher, and american helo industry will not domnate eurocopter. I am talking about numbers of sales both domestic and international.

In relation to figther design, the europeans missed out big when the french pulled out of EFA program. Imagine but now EFA would have been in full production wuith at least 900 on the order books. Instead you have a Rafale and typhoon competition. I hope they do not mak ethe same mistake with neuron.

Well, I guess we will have to disagree on that one? Personally, I don't see what happen (or didn't) 20-30 years ago. Has much to do with it.........the market will always go up and down. With no one country will always dominate any one segment!:rolleyes:
 

Dr Phobus

New Member
Crusader2000 said:
Well, I guess we will have to disagree on that one? Personally, I don't see what happen (or didn't) 20-30 years ago. Has much to do with it.........the market will always go up and down. With no one country will always dominate any one segment!:rolleyes:
you will see a lot of parity in the commerical aerospace industry, and of course, there is not so much american dominace of the warplane and support plane industry. In relation to UCAV the europeans are ramping up with Neuron. The american helo industry is not doing so well internationally, but the large internal market helps. :D
 

Crusader2000

Banned Member
Dr Phobus said:
you will see a lot of parity in the commerical aerospace industry, and of course, there is not so much american dominace of the warplane and support plane industry. In relation to UCAV the europeans are ramping up with Neuron. The american helo industry is not doing so well internationally, but the large internal market helps. :D


Funny, seems like the US sells large numbers on Blackhawks, Seahawks, and Apaches. Let's not forget that we will more than likely be moving away from Helocopters anyways in the coming decades. With the advent of VTOL Aircraft like the VC-22 Osprey. Which, the US dominates I mite add! As for the commerical side. That will be much more competitive internationally no doubt. Also, with the F-22 and forthing coming JSF. I think Military Avaition Market is well covered too! While the US can't clearly lead everywhere..............its place of top is assured for the forseeable future!:D
 
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