Aussie Digger said:
I too think it will come down to Eurofighter or F15E/K. Singapore would obviously please the US by buying the F-15 and would therefore probably expect more of a workshare and possibly technology transfer in relation to JSF, but the F-15 might not be the most capable option. Tranche 3 Eurofighters in the numbers Singaporeis planning to buy (20 at first with 20+ later on) plus their existing late model F-16's and Hawkeye AWACS aircraft, would ensure Singapore's regional Air power supremacy. Even Malaysia's proposed FA18E/F and SU30MKI fleet wouldn't match them. Even Australia's 71 upgraded FA-18's would look quite pedestrian next to Singapore's fleet, yet the Australian government doesn't seem overly concerned by this... Whatever happened to our policy of over-matching any nation in our region qualitatively AND numerically?
The RAAF has not been worried about the mismatch between the F/A18's and the Su30MKI fleet due to other force elements in our ORBAT mix.
If you focus on the plane (eg Hornet) then clearly the Su30MKI will outfly it.
The factoring in of incoming radar systems, JORN, Wedgetail AWACs (which is known to have approx 2 x the range of the IL-76 based solutions), missile packages etc has meant that not a lot of people are losing sleep about a superiority threat.
That will escalate to another level of capability when JSF comes in.
Unless we went to war overnight, then we have suficient lead time to actually take all of our combat elelements into a superior technology fit. As it stands, we don't see a threat with any of our neighbours except for a somewhat fractious relationship with Indonesia - and that has been so for 40 years, even though we still give them foreign aide packages, military equipment, civilian support in govt and policing etc... Sometimes I question why we would give them $1 billion in aide (financial meltdown period) when they want to take periodic swings at us, far different from the Thais who just saw us as being neighbourly etc... - but such is life. At least its getting better.
But, on the Su30x, it's v difficult if not impossible for it to get a 0 Doppler for more than 1 direction, and still "fly". A Hornet controlled by a Wedgetail AWACs, will still have target data through the AWACS, and would be able to fire an AMRAAM. Fit the Bug with AESA and the tables change dramatically.
All of the simulations I know of don't rate the Su-30MKI as highly as previously thought. The oft touted Su30MKI vs F15c comparison is no longer relevant as an indicator.
In a shooting war where both sides had AWACs, we know that we have double the intercept and lag range over any current Russian/Chinese IL-76 style/based system. So we have a minimum 150-200km edge already. Unless the opfor is using a hypersonic we have the upperhand. (and lets remember that we are the only nation to have tested a successful scramjet missile solution, so we have latent development capability if we need to convert that technology into an ALI). Even if they did have a hypersonic we have a probable max window of 150-250k's to get out of Dodge - not that difficult using the approp altitude and supercruise capability of the Bug.
Remember that JORN is able to see way beyond its declared 3000k range, so we can literally run as South East Asia's regional air traffic controller if need be - Although it was a weather assisted anomally, JORN was allegedly able to pick up USAF stealth aircraft over Bagdhad in 99. Generally (weather permitting) we can see planes taking off from airports within 3000-3500 k's of the search sweep. So we definitely know when aircraft are taking off and heading towards us.
So, nominally we haven't lost an edge. On the principle platform - yes, on the integrated capability - definitely no.
When you combine JORN, HUG Hornets, Tankers, Wedgetail AWACs (arriving this year), EP-3c Aries ELINT/SIGINT Orions, AP-3c Orions, data linked GlobalHawks, the existing Spy Satellites + the singaporean/australian spy satellite development, and the approp platform weapons loadouts, then the next airforce that has a closer capability is Singapore. (with whom we are co-members with Malaysia, UK and NZ in the 5 Powers Agreement)
Indonesia is not in a position to launch any effective strikes against the mainland (assuming that they had an overnight change in Govt who was overtly hostile to Australia) I can't see that happening in the short term. Also, historically Indonesias maintenance capability and current spares holdings management for the "sharp end of the spear" has left a lot to be desired. You can't just suddenly develop an efficient and self primed logistics system, that still is a weakness in their capability.
Finally, their ORBAT is not geared for force on force confrontation. They are in a sense one of the largest para military police forces in the world.
As much as we may grumble and growl at each other as we evolve into a more harmonious relationship, we don't have an overwhelming desire to shoot at each other..
