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WASHINGTON — The U.S. intelligence community has assessed that Egypt could develop nuclear weapons in wake of the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak.
Officials said the intelligence community has been drafting memorandums ordered by President Barack Obama of the repercussions of the ouster of the 82-year-old Mubarak, who had ruled Egypt for nearly 30 years.
They said Mubarak's successor, whether from the military or the Islamist-dominated opposition, could order the acceleration of Egypt's secret nuclear weapons program.
"There is significant evidence that Egypt has been preparing a nuclear weapons option for at least 25 years and maintains strategic relations with countries that have broken out over the last few years," an official said.
[On Feb. 15, the administration of President Barack Obama said it intends to provide Egypt in 2012 with the same level of military and civilian assistance, $1.5 billion, as during this year. Officials said the administration was also prepared to examine additional aid to Egypt during 2011.]
Officials said Egypt has acquired nuclear weapons technology and perhaps material from such countries as China, North Korea and Pakistan. They said the Mubarak regime also pursued other weapons of mass destruction programs, including biological and chemical.
The United States has known of Egypt's secret nuclear weapons program since at least 1986. But officials acknowledged that successive administration decided not to disclose the Egyptian efforts in an attempt to maintain U.S. strategic relations with the largest Arab state and one at peace with Israel.
"The assessment of the intelligence community was that Mubarak could be counted upon to prevent a [nuclear] breakout, but now he's going and everything changes," the official said.
In 2010, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) asserted that Egypt conducted 16 secret nuclear experiments from 1990 until 2003. The agency was said to have raised questions over the discovery of enriched uranium in northern Egypt and urged the Mubarak regime to disclose data. So far, Cairo has denied any nuclear weapons efforts.
One source for the U.S. intelligence community on Egypt's WMD program was a convicted Egyptian, Abdul Qadr Helmy. Helmy, a rocket scientist and also an American citizen, was arrested in 1989 and charged with seeking to acquire U.S. missile technology for Egypt.
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President Barack Obama pauses during a news conference at the conclusion of the 2010 Nuclear Security Summit in Washington. AP/Charles Dharapak
"Without the activities of Dr. Helmy and his co-conspirators in procuring restricted technology," the Defense Intelligence Agency said in a memorandum in 1989, "completion of the Condor missile program is doubtful. Dr. Helmy's apparent willingness to provide critical materials necessary for the production of the Condor missile was important to the long term goals of establishing an indigenous ballistic missile production capability in Argentina, Egypt and Iraq."
Helmy, according to a U.S. Customs Service memorandum, told investigators that Egypt maintained a nuclear weapons development program in cooperation with Pakistan. He said the director of the Egyptian program was Brig. Gen. Ahmed Nashet, and that uranium was being sent to Pakistan for enrichment to bomb-grade levels.
Another Egyptian program, Helmy said, stipulated the procurement of uranium from France as well as the development Cobalt-60, an isotope regarded as suitable for a radioactive warhead. Helmy, who had been given high-level security clearance from the Defense Department and sentenced to 45 months, later denied that he provided such a report.
"The U.S. has long known about but tolerated because of Egypt's central role in both the Middle East peace talks and counter-terrorism," said Robert Windrem, an investigative producer for the U.S. television network NBC.
Windrem, who has been investigating Egypt's WMD programs, said Congress also did not make a fuss. He quoted a congressional expert that Egypt was given preferential treatment over all of its Arab neighbors.
"If they were any other Arab state, we would be all over them every day on these issues," Windrem quoted the expert as saying.
Argentina and Russia were also said to have helped Egypt's nuclear program. In the 1980s, Argentina helped build a 22-megawatt research reactor at Inshas north of Cairo while the Kremlin supplied a cyclotron accelerator, required for uranium enrichment. Inshas was said to have been designed to eventually produce weapons-grade plutonium.
Officials said the intelligence community has been concerned that any successor to Mubarak would accelerate Egypt's nuclear program. They said Egypt was believed to have sufficient sources of technology to eventually complete a nuclear warhead as well as a missile of at least 1,000 kilometers.
Meanwhile, Egypt's intelligence community has assessed that Al Qaida was using the North African state as a transit point to Iraq and the Gulf.
Officials said the Egyptian intelligence community has concluded that Al Qaida's network in North Africa was using Egypt to shuttle operatives between the region and the rest of the Middle East. They said the most utilized route was between the North African states of Algeria through Egypt and to Syria and Iraq.
"There's certainly no terrorist organization in Egypt, Al Qaida or other," former Egyptian Interior Minister Habib Adli said. "But there are attempts to push elements that have been trained abroad or to attract and recruit the communion of the information through the network."
Adli, replaced amid massive civil unrest in early February, said the Al Qaida network, known as Al Qaida Organization in the Islamic Maghreb, has been sending operatives from Algeria, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia through Egypt. He said many of these operatives were assigned to fight the pro-Western government in Iraq and Afghanistan.
"We have uncovered a group of motivated suicide bombers from abroad to Egypt," Al Adli said. "They are from Tunisia, Libya, Egypt and were taken to other countries, including to Iraq to join the so-called Islamic State of Iraq."
Al Adli said Al Qaida operates three major centers in the Middle East. He identified them as the Gaza Strip, Iraq and Morocco, for which Egypt served as a key transit point.
"These are stations for this organization, from where orders are issued for operations in this or that country, including Egypt," Al Adli said.
Officials said Al Qaida was also believed to use Egypt as a transit point for operations in the Gaza Strip. They said at least one Al Qaida militia in the Gaza Strip was conducting attacks in Egypt, including the suicide bombing of a Coptic church in January.
"We are sure that there are dozens of elements loyal to Al Qaida in the Gaza Strip, and elements of them have been involved in previous terrorist attempts in Egypt," Al Adli said.
In an interview with Egypt's state-owned Al Ahram daily on Jan. 25, the interior minister provided details of an Al Qaida cell in Egypt. Al Adli said Egypt arrested 19 Al Qaida operatives aligned with the Army of Islam, an Al Qaida-aligned militia based in the Gaza Strip. The detainees were said to have included nationals from Libya and Tunisia.
"Al Qaida has become a symbol for the majority of terrorist groups and an umbrella to move under and the security services operate on the global pursuit of the organization and its components," Al Adli said.
The minister said Al Qaida operative shuttle from Egypt to the Gaza Strip through the Palestinian tunnel network along the border of the eastern Sinai. He said the Hamas regime has sought to counter Al Qaida presence.
The Army of Islam cell in Egypt had been assigned to target and bomb churches and synagogues, officials said. One of the Al Qaida suspects, an Egyptian national, was said to have told Egyptian interrogators that he arrived in the Gaza Strip in 2008 and was assigned to photograph likely targets in the Egyptian city of Alexandria.
Officials said Egyptians have been recruited by Al Qaida, including AQIM, through the Internet. They said Al Qaida relays instructions and training through encrypted messages.
Officials said the intelligence community has been drafting memorandums ordered by President Barack Obama of the repercussions of the ouster of the 82-year-old Mubarak, who had ruled Egypt for nearly 30 years.
They said Mubarak's successor, whether from the military or the Islamist-dominated opposition, could order the acceleration of Egypt's secret nuclear weapons program.
"There is significant evidence that Egypt has been preparing a nuclear weapons option for at least 25 years and maintains strategic relations with countries that have broken out over the last few years," an official said.
[On Feb. 15, the administration of President Barack Obama said it intends to provide Egypt in 2012 with the same level of military and civilian assistance, $1.5 billion, as during this year. Officials said the administration was also prepared to examine additional aid to Egypt during 2011.]
Officials said Egypt has acquired nuclear weapons technology and perhaps material from such countries as China, North Korea and Pakistan. They said the Mubarak regime also pursued other weapons of mass destruction programs, including biological and chemical.
The United States has known of Egypt's secret nuclear weapons program since at least 1986. But officials acknowledged that successive administration decided not to disclose the Egyptian efforts in an attempt to maintain U.S. strategic relations with the largest Arab state and one at peace with Israel.
"The assessment of the intelligence community was that Mubarak could be counted upon to prevent a [nuclear] breakout, but now he's going and everything changes," the official said.
In 2010, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) asserted that Egypt conducted 16 secret nuclear experiments from 1990 until 2003. The agency was said to have raised questions over the discovery of enriched uranium in northern Egypt and urged the Mubarak regime to disclose data. So far, Cairo has denied any nuclear weapons efforts.
One source for the U.S. intelligence community on Egypt's WMD program was a convicted Egyptian, Abdul Qadr Helmy. Helmy, a rocket scientist and also an American citizen, was arrested in 1989 and charged with seeking to acquire U.S. missile technology for Egypt.
Image002
President Barack Obama pauses during a news conference at the conclusion of the 2010 Nuclear Security Summit in Washington. AP/Charles Dharapak
"Without the activities of Dr. Helmy and his co-conspirators in procuring restricted technology," the Defense Intelligence Agency said in a memorandum in 1989, "completion of the Condor missile program is doubtful. Dr. Helmy's apparent willingness to provide critical materials necessary for the production of the Condor missile was important to the long term goals of establishing an indigenous ballistic missile production capability in Argentina, Egypt and Iraq."
Helmy, according to a U.S. Customs Service memorandum, told investigators that Egypt maintained a nuclear weapons development program in cooperation with Pakistan. He said the director of the Egyptian program was Brig. Gen. Ahmed Nashet, and that uranium was being sent to Pakistan for enrichment to bomb-grade levels.
Another Egyptian program, Helmy said, stipulated the procurement of uranium from France as well as the development Cobalt-60, an isotope regarded as suitable for a radioactive warhead. Helmy, who had been given high-level security clearance from the Defense Department and sentenced to 45 months, later denied that he provided such a report.
"The U.S. has long known about but tolerated because of Egypt's central role in both the Middle East peace talks and counter-terrorism," said Robert Windrem, an investigative producer for the U.S. television network NBC.
Windrem, who has been investigating Egypt's WMD programs, said Congress also did not make a fuss. He quoted a congressional expert that Egypt was given preferential treatment over all of its Arab neighbors.
"If they were any other Arab state, we would be all over them every day on these issues," Windrem quoted the expert as saying.
Argentina and Russia were also said to have helped Egypt's nuclear program. In the 1980s, Argentina helped build a 22-megawatt research reactor at Inshas north of Cairo while the Kremlin supplied a cyclotron accelerator, required for uranium enrichment. Inshas was said to have been designed to eventually produce weapons-grade plutonium.
Officials said the intelligence community has been concerned that any successor to Mubarak would accelerate Egypt's nuclear program. They said Egypt was believed to have sufficient sources of technology to eventually complete a nuclear warhead as well as a missile of at least 1,000 kilometers.
Meanwhile, Egypt's intelligence community has assessed that Al Qaida was using the North African state as a transit point to Iraq and the Gulf.
Officials said the Egyptian intelligence community has concluded that Al Qaida's network in North Africa was using Egypt to shuttle operatives between the region and the rest of the Middle East. They said the most utilized route was between the North African states of Algeria through Egypt and to Syria and Iraq.
"There's certainly no terrorist organization in Egypt, Al Qaida or other," former Egyptian Interior Minister Habib Adli said. "But there are attempts to push elements that have been trained abroad or to attract and recruit the communion of the information through the network."
Adli, replaced amid massive civil unrest in early February, said the Al Qaida network, known as Al Qaida Organization in the Islamic Maghreb, has been sending operatives from Algeria, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia through Egypt. He said many of these operatives were assigned to fight the pro-Western government in Iraq and Afghanistan.
"We have uncovered a group of motivated suicide bombers from abroad to Egypt," Al Adli said. "They are from Tunisia, Libya, Egypt and were taken to other countries, including to Iraq to join the so-called Islamic State of Iraq."
Al Adli said Al Qaida operates three major centers in the Middle East. He identified them as the Gaza Strip, Iraq and Morocco, for which Egypt served as a key transit point.
"These are stations for this organization, from where orders are issued for operations in this or that country, including Egypt," Al Adli said.
Officials said Al Qaida was also believed to use Egypt as a transit point for operations in the Gaza Strip. They said at least one Al Qaida militia in the Gaza Strip was conducting attacks in Egypt, including the suicide bombing of a Coptic church in January.
"We are sure that there are dozens of elements loyal to Al Qaida in the Gaza Strip, and elements of them have been involved in previous terrorist attempts in Egypt," Al Adli said.
In an interview with Egypt's state-owned Al Ahram daily on Jan. 25, the interior minister provided details of an Al Qaida cell in Egypt. Al Adli said Egypt arrested 19 Al Qaida operatives aligned with the Army of Islam, an Al Qaida-aligned militia based in the Gaza Strip. The detainees were said to have included nationals from Libya and Tunisia.
"Al Qaida has become a symbol for the majority of terrorist groups and an umbrella to move under and the security services operate on the global pursuit of the organization and its components," Al Adli said.
The minister said Al Qaida operative shuttle from Egypt to the Gaza Strip through the Palestinian tunnel network along the border of the eastern Sinai. He said the Hamas regime has sought to counter Al Qaida presence.
The Army of Islam cell in Egypt had been assigned to target and bomb churches and synagogues, officials said. One of the Al Qaida suspects, an Egyptian national, was said to have told Egyptian interrogators that he arrived in the Gaza Strip in 2008 and was assigned to photograph likely targets in the Egyptian city of Alexandria.
Officials said Egyptians have been recruited by Al Qaida, including AQIM, through the Internet. They said Al Qaida relays instructions and training through encrypted messages.
