sunjerem said:
I was wondering why the US won't sent some B-2 bombers to bomb the Iranian F-14s (the few that are left) and the rest of Iran's obsolete and crippled air force whilst they are on the ground? It would be so easy.
Sometimes smacking an upstart in the teeth for getting up in your grill makes him realize he's a not so big in his britches and avoids a deeper confrontation.
More often than not however; it makes the threat go 'all female' in feeling like they have been unfairly abused for simply challenging your dominance. At which point they decide to get even, no matter what it costs.
The Iranians have a long history of doing deals with terrorists but they have, thus far, kept the attacks they made on muslim/arab targets a lot less visible than those on the U.S.
Since any hit on the U.S. is perceived with the same adolescent glee as a kid knifing a teacher (they have the power, but if we can kill/humiliate/insult them...maybe we aren't so weak.) there is no sense of urgency in dealing with the threat that they can choose to ignore.
Such is the nature of the Muslim Conscience the World Over. And of course it is why they are in fact dominated and dispossessed of immense wealth, mostly by their own leadership. Because said leadership ALSO takes every possible chance to distract from the obvious with any extra-national bone there is.
Is the U.S. any better? We don't fly jets into buildings and say we didn't do it. But we do go literally out of our ops-area way to generate tension by engaging pissant PCI/FIAC type threats with heavy naval vessels.
So that we can take the fight to the oil platforms from which these 'little ships' launch. And if we nail an Iran Air 747 legitimately in it's own air corridor because we are OUT of ours?
It's just the price of doing business in terms of oil.
And so we let incidents like Flight 800 slide as a tacit admission of tit for tat guilt and this makes all the little muftis over there think we /want/ to play their game.
A very dangerous precedent to set.
In the end, the reality of life is this: The only threats which we REALLY have to worry about are the nukes. And if the Nukes are on Cruise or Shahab, they are actually 'good for U.S.' (or at least our defense contractors) because they effectively endorse the development of GBI and ABL and similar weapons.
Weapons which, previously, everyone from NATO, the UN and Russia have ALL been yelping against.
OTOH, if we overtly destroy their admittedly fixed and (for the moment) readily targeted launch facilities for their IRBMs in particular; we generate a situation whereby _now_ they may think about a short range missile on the back of a boat. Or a suitcase nuke.
Since the AP newswire (I think it is) has announced that Osama and Company have the 'permission of a licensed mullah' for up to a 10 million person mass casualty among the infidel/apostate populations; we are now in a situation whereby we cannot FIND all their dispersed nuclear facilities. And so we had damn well /better/ hostage their delivery systems.
Which will only remain vulnerable so long as they are not shown to be conventionally targetable on a short-reaction window notification (SLCM or conventional SLBM).
Even as the people who REALLY run the Arab world realize that those IRBMs will not be targeted on the U.S. (which would simply, _finally_ remove Islam as a stain upon humanity from this world). But rather upon Europe and the mid-East oil fields. Along with perhaps Southern Russia.
As a kind of razed earth + hate the U.S. attempt to put us 'all on an equal footing'.
In any case, playing Six Day War with what you yourself state to be a less than threatening opponent doesn't do us any good. Because the Iranians, forever a city state locked in a 2,000 year old view of what /makes/ a nation state, 'have gone all female' and would simply seek even harder to make our lives miserable in places like Iraq and AfG.
If you are going to hit these people, your best choice is a decapitation strike DIRECTLY at the leadership. Your second best option is to create the same kinds of imbalance and terror among the Arabs as they wish to foment in Iraq.
Probably with a staged 'event' of somekind which can be blamed on the Iranians. An assassination within one of the Royal Families for instance.
CONCLUSION:
I wouldn't wipe my shoes on these peoples doormats for fear of having to burn my footwear if I had a choice. But they are a lot less stupid than the Iraqi's -ever- were. So the reality is either picking a fight and forcing the Iranians to prostrate themselves as a direct admission of what their nationalism is 'don't bring none, don't be none' leading to. RIGHT NOW.
Or to back out and castrate our own oil interests while going into wind, tide and fuel cell technology as fast as we can.
The REAL problem then being that Iran could easily make itself a regional superpower (owner of the Gulf) if we leave. The Saudis are rife with corruption and criticism of their 'friendship' with U.S. And nobody else has the swing to stand tall.
And once they ARE effectively OPEC; the reign of the USD as a fiat currency will end. And that would crush our economy flat.
So basically we are playing out a game of Armageddon Chess, hoping the one side will make a mistake 'before it comes to that'. And knowing that, this time, with all the historical examples to go by, the same errors of overreach will not likely be made. Or at least ours (getting a feather up our ass to go into Iraq without intending to _make an example of an enemy populace_) will be the first and most telling one.
KPl.
P.S. There is no real reason for the U.S. to use B-2s. Tomahawk and CALCM would provide vastly superior (more targets simultaneously with better individual aimpoint refinment). Nor could we count on being able to deploy F-22s to a landward base without that itself being both remarked upon and a source of further friction if we attacked. That said, the real tells will always be the DEAD and EA support missions because while the ability of any Iranian threat airframe to tackle a B-2 operating in the 45-55K height band is minimal; we absolutely could not afford to NOT take out the IOC/SOC systems by which an S2A threat could be directed.
I assume the Iranians have S-75 and HAWK which are nominally point defense systems at this altitude. But I also wouldn't be surprised if they didn't have an S-300 battery or two (gee thanks Putin!) and the combination of the two, plus a decent cuer, could easily put a Batarang in a heckuva 'F.G. Powers' conditional situation with similar engagement geometry problems and performance issues plus a LOT larger planform.
Add to this the LONG period interval (probably 20-30hrs before they could turn and come back) and even a full 20X16 or 320 aimpoint strike doesn't seem likely to do much useful to the direct military infrastructure. Command and possibly industrial assets? Yes. But the warfighter, probably not. You would need GBU-39 or 39 to really saturation-kill an airfield and all wing components thereon. And that's assuming the Iranians don't go to a dispersal plan. Their fast boats and any WMD are going to be even harder.
Much more so than a casual fast pass with the APQ-181 off a grainy satellite photo could guarantee. For that kind of target, your best bet is holding pen orbits of cruise and as many UAV as you can scrounge.
Something to keep in mind when you consider the way the Iranians will kick us in the nuts is to hostage the tanker lanes again. Just look at how fast Lloyds put an end to the 1980-88 sport war when it was discovered that Mines had gone outside Hormuz.
KPl.