I disagree. The guy is a character (albeit a delusional one). Nevertheless he is a character. I think he is very manageable. The most disappointing aspect to Kim Jong il's dictatorship is his ignorance of the misery his people face on a daily basis.
There are a myriad of reason's behind why dictators posture on the international stage - often domestic imperatives are overlooked (by outsiders). He walks a tightrope both domestically and internationally.
Quite frankly he is extremely talented at it.
I think the current strategy is sound. Both Russia and China are correct in suggesting we back off him (militarily).
I can see your point here but that is not taking away the fact that this man violated more rules than 1000 criminals together.
His people are so scared of him that they would never talk or disagree with him in public.
He might have skyscrapers and such stuff to show his power projection upon his people but on the other hand they need to share each dinner with 4 people otherwise 40% will starve to dead.
So yeah i agree he is putting up a hell of a show and he certainly knows his way around but so are most criminals^^
Kim Jong il has very little to gain from a war. He has a lot to gain domestically from posturing internationally. His imperative is to maintain power at all costs. After his recent hospitalisation I imagine there would have been questions raised within his power structure.
True true on the otherhand North Korean people always have been told one day we will defeat South Korea and that exactly what is going to happen exept for the defeating South Korea part, he is drilling his people 20 years long to prepare for a war against South Korea so basicly he has paved the way for a promise he must keep to maintain his power otherwise he will lose it.
Playing with his big toys underground and shooting rockets up in the air no where near anyone and making idle threats against South Korea indicate to me he is shoring up domestic support. He has no intentions whatsoever to attack anyone. That would be my assessment. That would be the assessment of the Chinese and the Russians.
By playing with Bigtoys he did create a situation that will not help him infact its a sign "invade me" Because he did violate so mutch rules, and creating a huge amount of enemies who will say enough is enough and i do believe that some are already past that point so actions against him and his people must be taken, and he will agian not follow those rules what eventually will make him go to war because he is burning all his options to come out of this in one piece.
Playing with the Bigtoys is in fact in direct violation of numerous sanctions and rules, so everytime he shoots a rocket or test a bomb he is kicking the western world including Russia and China directly in to the nuts:nutkick
nfloorl:
And eventually he will lose the already little support from Russia and his 0.5% ally China.
Because regardless or its just "shoring up domestic support" he is breaking almost every international law that exists.
I think the Chinese have adjusted their stance slightly in a political move of their own - they have gotten mileage out of this.
What interests me is his succession strategy and determining to what degree his ideology is truly accepted. I believe there is greater risk in the absence of Kim Jong il. Particularly if the ideology is aggressively carried forward by a younger, more ambitious and narrow minded leader.
But in his passing will also be the greatest opportunity to manoeuvre to an outcome we can build genuine geopolitical foundations upon.
It is important we focus on creating an ideological 'disconnect' post Kim Jong il. Again I think this is the strategy of the Chinese and again I think it is sound.
A more conservative dictatorship in North Korea post Kim Jong il might allow for a broader cultural exchange with South Korea. By opening up concepts of 'individuality' and 'freedom of choice' we may shift that country to see value in opening up to the world.
I dont see risk here (of war). Our job is to maintain our morality and ethics and to consider the lives of North Koreans who have not chosen the lives they lead.
If North Korea launches a genuine attack on any level then we move swiftly to remove that capacity. However we do not pre-empt. If that means we absorb an initial loss of life then so be it.
It is the inherent cost of the morality by which we choose to live.
Keep in mind he has broken more rules than anyone in 20 years history
but he did make all his promises happen i mean he said:
I will build a bomb and he did
He said lots of things and 90% really did happen.
Now go figure regardless what Russia and China do or think the western world will not approve that he continues this path, so he might play a show here and just creating a dellusional world but the fact is he did go way to far for others to back down the only thing in my opion that would save him is just following the rules and completly shutdown his "Weapon Operations"
He even might to have step down from the "high seat" because if he is not able to keep his promises against his own goverment than he is dead eitherway see my point? he is a strong leader no doubt but he did give people so many reasons to follow him and the people who did not follow him or refused ended up dead or in laborcamp for the rest of their lives.
So if he not starts a war against South Korea as he has promised than his very foundations on his ideology would collapse.
And Kim has been proven a very proud man and putting your proud to a side to backdown and tell the world ok i did just put on a show is in my opion to mutch asked from this Kim.
So from my point of view he has 4 options:
* Start a war (and loses greatly but at least he can say i did as promised and keep the ideology alive for many years to come.)
* Wait upon the moment the western world is going to get him ( So he can say i told you so and we are the bad guys)
* Back down and follow the rules (What will result in a collapsing country and ideology he will lose his power and will put to the stand for treason)
* Ask the international world to remove him from leadership without losing his face and keep his country's dignity/ideology
Thats my opinion about it i might be wrong so if anyone has a differend view about this please share.
