Originally Posted by Deep_Web_Guy
Absolutely. This math is very susceptible to GIGO. But Bayesian stat is a valid method to convert the level of belief of an area expert into a number. I'm not claiming to be an area expert at all. Just trying to approximate a general idea of R, and identify my biggest errs.
Single analysts, be it commercial or military, are more at danger of GIGO without someone challenging the P(h) & P(nh) of the factors. Which is the case here. It is also the reason to solicit outside input.
OK, but the problem here is that you're not going to get those numbers precise enough to be useful without information that nobody who's going to respond to you on the internet will give you.
The best information which anyone has, when put into your formulae, will have enormous margins of error, & the people who have the best information won't reveal it, or they'd go to prison, at best.
You're doing the equivalent of adding two numbers both of which are between 0 & 100 - and that's all you know about them. The answer is meaningless.
If you find the mathematical analysis interesting, & are good at it, then I suggest that you apply your interest & abilities more productively. There are many problems which you could analyse where the results could be of value, or at least interest. Economic historians, for example, are always looking for ways to squeeze more information out of data. But to get information, you have to have data! The three most important things you need for your analyses to be worthwhile are data, data & data - and that's what you lack.