Deep_Web_Guy
New Member
The Turkish-Syrian relationship is tricky. Turkey has been rather reserved when it comes to its southern neighbor.
But, now there are several indicators hinting that Turkey may impose a no-fly zone over Syria, specifically on the Syrian Air Force. The Turk certainly has the dominant air assets to do so, however the Syrian air defenses are stout.
I've used standard Bayesian statistics to make my prediction. If anyone proposes better updates to the probabilities of any factors, I'd like to hear it.
The bottom line prediction is 60% as of 13OCT12.
My Bayesian math is over at deep-web(dot)org in the blog under Turkey no fly prediction. Can't seem to post the link.
But, now there are several indicators hinting that Turkey may impose a no-fly zone over Syria, specifically on the Syrian Air Force. The Turk certainly has the dominant air assets to do so, however the Syrian air defenses are stout.
I've used standard Bayesian statistics to make my prediction. If anyone proposes better updates to the probabilities of any factors, I'd like to hear it.
The bottom line prediction is 60% as of 13OCT12.
My Bayesian math is over at deep-web(dot)org in the blog under Turkey no fly prediction. Can't seem to post the link.