Why is the US retreating from Syria?

[My2Cents]

Their latest strike appears to have been intended to take out some stray manpads systems intended for use in the Lebanon or along the Israeli border - and there'd be a lot more of that if Syria fragments.

The claim put forward is that Israel destroyed a SA-17 Buk battery on the road to Lebanon. That is a big step up from a MANPAD, of which Hezbollah already has many.

 

[Himal]

Mods, with all due respect, what hapened to forum rules, this is 'opinion' ain't it? - "hanging on for 'too long'"? !!
What do we know about Syria anyway, vis-a-vis, DefenceTalk?
Where's proof on 'Assad is bad'?
i.e.: I watch Aljazeera/CNN... none available.
All I see are, lots of black flags with writing on 'em - no idea what they mean.

Assad should leg it as soon as feasible, same as all the other dictators in previous situations. Like the rest, he'll hang on for way too long and end up being strung up by piano wire from a lamp post.

Israel has no vested interest in becoming embroiled - if they intervene on a persistent basis, they may well serve to prop up the regime by crystallising support around Assad, stalling the uprising, and neither are they served by the uprising succeeding. Ditto Turkey - although Turkey's borders are under more pressure from refugees.

It's an appalling situation to be looking at in terms of a humanitarian tragedy but trying to unpick this with a bunch of JDAM's isn't going to happen.

 

[StobieWan]

Nothing in the rules about expressing an opinion as long as it's stated as such - and in my opinion, for what it's worth, I believe that Assad will make the same mistake that Saddam and Ghadaffi both made and will fail to get clear of an imploding country.

Proof that Assad is bad ? Well, I didn't make any comment about any such thing - simply that I think the existing regime will fail at some point. If you take the time to look around, you'll see that Assad's regime has some wrinkles...

A Wasted Decade | Human Rights Watch

 

[Himal]

Roger that StobieWan!
I guess he's probably too deep in this match to do much just now.
Would it be rude to say Assad's outcome on this is pretty much 'sealed', I mean, the rebels/insurgents/freedom fighters(?) are already knocking on the Damascus' gates!
I personally believe The States wants to help but somehow at a loss on the how.
Those fighters don't look too Israel friendly either - or would it be possible for Israel to coax them to be friends?

 

[STURM]

If you take the time to look around, you'll see that Assad's regime has some wrinkles...

No doubts there at all but so does almost every Arab country which the West has long courted and declared as friends and allies. Back in 1982, when Assad the Elder razed Hama to the ground - in response to a declaration of war by the Muslim Brotherhood - the West and the Sunni Arabs didn't raise much of a fuss. When he entered Lebanon to aid the Christians in their civil war against various Muslim groups, Israel and the West welcomed it.

The problem for Assad is even if he manages to leave, he's aware that there's no guarantee that in the future he won't end up in the ICJ. I'm more concerned about what happens to the minorities.

Those fighters don't look too Israel friendly either - or would it be possible for Israel to coax them to be friends?

To answer that question, a number of important questions have to first be asked :

1. In the event of Assad falling, will Israel be willing to return the Golan to Syria? No matter who rules Syria after Assad, what is certain is that the Syrian people will continue to demand that the Golan is returned.

2. How much of the Golan will Israel return?

3. What pre-conditions will Israel insist on before it returns the Golan? The Israeli's off course will insist on full and normal relations with Syria's new rulers but what if Syria says that full and normal relations will only be established until Israel abides by a longstanding UN resolution to return the Golan and also to seek a permanent soluton to the Palestinian issue? And what if Syria's new rulers [despite being Sunni] declare that they wil continue to maintain relations with Hezbollah and Iran, and demand that Israel also settle the logstanding issue of the Shebaa Farms and that the territory be returned to Lebanon?

http://www.agenceglobal.com/index.php?show=article&Tid=2964

 

[StobieWan]

No doubts there at all but so does almost every Arab country which the West has long courted and declared as friends and allies

No indeed but I was simply replying to the suggestion that there was no evidence that Assad had done anything wrong.

I think the only way out of this for everyone is a political settlement - getting a clean solution militarily doesn't seem possible - the opposition groups are badly fragmented, only connected by a common enemy and it's now abundantly clear that arming 'em is storing up some major security risks 12-24 months down the line.

None of the neighbours are keen on pitching in, largely because the outcomes will only be predictable in the sense that they will be poor.

Summary, this'll drag on until either the bulk of the rebels put a united front for long enough to get some wider assistance, Assad is killed by one side or another, or Assad plugs into some sort of political solution.

 

[Himal]

3. What pre-conditions will Israel insist on before it returns the Golan? The Israeli's off course will insist on full and normal relations with Syria's new rulers but what if Syria says that full and normal relations will only be established until Israel abides by a longstanding UN resolution to return the Golan and also to seek a permanent soluton to the Palestinian issue? And what if Syria's new rulers [despite being Sunni] declare that they wil continue to maintain relations with Hezbollah and Iran, and demand that Israel also settle the logstanding issue of the Shebaa Farms and that the territory be returned to Lebanon?

Israel would agree to nothing.
First off, for anyone to sit across Israel, would mean she's recognised as a state - nope, didn't think so.
Recall the recent spate of 'rocketeering' by Hamas(it died as strangely and abruptly as it started), and folks at CNN were seriously looking at how Westbank should be returned and stuff, when the host calmly suggested maybe Israel is too deep into Westbank to 'simply' back away!
Golan Heights back to the Syrians?
Don't think so.

Situation in Syaria is like metal fire, as inhuman as it may sound, global folks would just have to wait for it to die down - on its own. Dousing water wont' help, and don't see a shipped-overnight solution here either.

 

[explorer9]

Whether Al-Assad remains on power for another year or so or the opposition forces come in to power, the infrastructure of the country has already been destroyed. The intransience of the civil war will devastate the country more and that will be win-win situation for Israel as one of its major military fronts will be extremely weakened and that will enable Israeli forces to violate Syrian borders like Palestine and Lebanon.

Asymmetric war fare with Gorilla organizations is Israeli area of expertise and that will also legitimize its offensives action to the weakened Syria on the pretext of terrorism.

 

[STURM]

Israel would agree to nothing.

Israel would agree to a deal if it was to its advantage and it got what it wanted. There has and continues to be ''behind the scenes'' talks between Israel and the Arabs and despite Israel perpetually declaring that it will not negotiate with ''terrorists'', it has done so in the past and will do so again if needed.

First off, for anyone to sit across Israel, would mean she's recognised as a state - nope, didn't think so.

As long as Israel - in violation of UN Resolution 242 - continues to occupy land it doesn't own, no Arab state will be willing to officially recognise Israel [even if they did which Israel should they recognise, pre-1967 or post 1967 Isreal??]. The issue of the Arabs not recognising Israel has not prevented both sides from holding talks before.

Whether Al-Assad remains on power for another year or so or the opposition forces come in to power, the infrastructure of the country has already been destroyed.

The key question we should really be asking is what kind of post Assad Syria will emerge, given all the violence that has occurred.

And what will the response of the West be if the victorious rebels decide to be nasty to the Alawites, Christians, Druze and other monorities? Will NATO and Arab League troops enter the picture to protect these minorities - highly doubt it.

The West of course will off course demand that the rebels hand over Syria's stock of chemicals to be destroyed. But what if the rebels say that the chemicals are the property of the free and democratic Syrian people and they will be maintained to safeguard Syria against foreign aggression and that as long as Israel has nukes and refuses to handover the Golan, Syria's chemicals will be needed as a deterrent.

As usual, with it comes to the Middle East, there are more unanswered questions than answers.

 

[Himal]

Catch-22 !
I guess Israel would continously chat behind the scene to size things up, vis-a-vis, if prevailing situation is to their advantage, before getting all dressed up for the 'official' peace talks.., and then there're folks like Iran...
News out of Syria on 'freedom fighters' doesn't sound too 'freedom' friendly, at least not the west/globally recognised version. It's more like 'women, wrap yourselves up - right now' kind!
Add weapon grade chemical to that equation.
Scary.

 

[gf0012-aust]

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