Excuse me but I have been listening to the doom merchants for decades telling us the end of oil was just around the corner, 30 years later it is still just around the corner. What I am stressing is that while cheap sources of fossil fuels will come to an end eventually, there are a number of alternatives waiting in the wings. Some we will bypass due to enviromental problems inherant in their use, but you can be sure that as long as there is a profit envolved, their will be a solution. But saying that our children will be without oil because we have used it up is rediculous, oil may be the precusor to many chemical products, but it is not the sole source, just the cheapest for the time being. I am not trying to change your view, just putting across a different more positive view for others who read this thread. Your post makes it sound as though the future is bleak. How are we going to cope when oil, gas and coal run out in the near future, I am saying that oil will come to an end as the dominant energy source at some point, followed a few decades later by natural gas. Tar sands, shale oil and coal will take over and get us through at least a further century. As far as expense goes, most are in the $US40 + a barrel cost bracket, oil is at present over $60 and we are coping, so it is economic today to go down this road, as long as oil doesn't suddenly fall and undercut the alternatives as it did last time. These sources along with bio will get us through until it is economic to introduce the hydrogen/fusion age.
Some quotes-
Coal "While in 2005 the globally proven reserves of oil stood at 6,958 quadrillion BTUs Proven reserves of coal stood at a much higher level of 20,797 quadrillion BTUs. Of the 6,958 quadrillion BTUs of oil, 4,304 quadrillion BTUs were in Middle East, 817 in Europe and Eurasia, 808 in Americas excluding the US and 646 in Africa. As against the above, of the 20,797 quadrillion BTUs of coal, 6,568 quadrillion BTUs were in Europe and Eurasia, 6,792 in Asia Pacific, 5,643 in the US and only 1,161 quadrillion BTUs in Africa and Middle East."
China "It is reported that a total of 30 coal liquefaction projects are under detailed planning or at the stage of feasibility study in the country. According to conservative estimates, the total capacity would exceed 16 million tons, and the involved investment would surpass 120 billion yuan (15 billion dollars). Insiders predict that China's annual oil output liquefied from coal will reach 50 million tons by 2020. Coal-for-oil technology will be economic if the crude oil price is higher than 25 U.S. dollars per barrel."
"Under the license agreement, HTI has provided a process design package for the first of the three reactor trains ofthe world first commercial direct coal-to-liquid-fuels plant. The $2 billion facility will be located approximately 80 miles south of Baotou, at Majiata, Inner Mongolia in the People’s Republic of China. The plant will have anultimate capacity of 50,000 barrels per day of low-sulfur diesel fuel and gasoline produced from indigenous coal. After the startup of the first reactor train in late 2007, Shenhua Group intends to construct three more coalliquefaction plants in the general vicinity."
Philippines "The proposed hybrid plant will consist of a direct coal liquefaction unit (DCL), a coal gasification and syngas cleaning unit, a Fischer Tropsch synthesis unit (FT) and a power block. DCL and FT units will each produce about 30,000 barrels a day of liquid fuels. The facility will produce approximately 15 percent of the Philippines’ transportation fuel needs, resulting in estimated annual fuel cost savings of $3.2 billion, the company said. Last month Energy Undersecretary Peter Anthony A. Abaya said the $2-billion coal-to-liquids project will consume about 10,000 tons of coal to produce up to 60,000 barrels of oil."
Canada "The coal-to-liquid technology would compete with the evolving tar-sands technology being expanded in Canada. This technology involves the production, either by mining or extracting with steam, of heavy oil trapped in sand. The heavy oil is then massaged into more valuable fuels. This source already accounts for a quarter of Canada's 3.2 mm bpd output. It requires natural gas to heat the tar and is energy intensive, but still has production costs of under $ 20 a barrel. Tar-sand reserves are estimated at over 250 bn barrels."
"Roughly 450 kilometres northeast of Edmonton lies one of the fastest growing cities in Canada—Fort McMurray. With an economy fuelled by the largest single deposit of oil on the planet, the city is home to some of the largest mining equipment in the world used to excavate the tarsand. The city, located at the junction of the Athabasca and Clearwater rivers, is known for its vast deposits of tarsands, which cover 141,000 square kilometres in Alberta. It is estimated that the total volume of oil contained in the sand exceeds 1.6 trillion barrels. It’s difficult to understand just how much oil that is—over 250 barrels for every person on earth.According to estimates, as much as $100 billion will be invested in tarsand projects in the Fort McMurray area in the next 10 to 15 years"
USA "Montana has 120 billion tons of state and federal coal reserves under its surface, mostly in Eastern Montana. Schweitzer said 115 billion tons of that coal is recoverable. He said using the Fischer-Tropsch method, one ton of coal would produce 1.5 barrels of diesel fuel. A barrel is 42 gallons. "It would cost less that a $1 per gallon to make that diesel," he said.
Australia "For the present Survey, the Australian Geological Survey Organisation (AGSO) has reported a proved amount in place of 32.4 billion tonnes of oil shale, with proved recoverable reserves of oil put at 1 725 million tonnes. Additional reserves of shale oil are huge: in excess of 35 billion tonnes. In 1995 SPP/CPM signed a joint venture agreement with the Canadian company Suncor Energy Inc. to commence development of one of the oil shale deposits, the Stuart Deposit. Located near Gladstone, it has a total in-situ shale oil resource of 2.6 billion barrels and the capacity to produce more than 200 000 b/d"
"Australia’s first hot dry rock geothermal energy extraction project is up and running in granite beneath the Cooper Basin, NE South Australia. Evidence from existing Cooper Basin gas exploration wells that have drilled into the basement in the area, plus seismic and gravity data indicate that granite underlies the deepest part of the Basin over an area of approximately 1000 km2. The temperature at the top of the granite, at 3700m depth, is approximately 240ºC. The temperature gradient in the granite is expected to increase the rock temperature by 3ºC for every 100m into the granite. For large-scale production involving drilling 37 wells over an area of 6.25 km2, and producing 275 MWe, the cost is close to 4 cents per kWh. This is approximately the same cost as current new-entry coal-fired generation."
Aviation Jet Fuel "Excerpts:
1. A Boeing executive says development of biofuels is gaining momentum as airlines and armed forces seek alternatives to expensive jet fuel.
2. Richard Branson last week committed $3 billion to help develop alternatives to fossil fuels.
3. Feedstock considered for airline biofuels are sugarcane, switchgrass, soybeans and algae
4. The U.S. Air Force flew a B-52 bomber recently with two of its eight engines using a 50/50 blend of jet fuel and a biofuel(?) alternative.
New Zealand " New Zealand company has successfully turned sewage into modern-day gold. Marlborough-based Aquaflow Bionomic yesterday announced it had produced its first sample of bio-diesel fuel from algae in sewage ponds. It is believed to be the world's first commercial production of bio-diesel from "wild" algae outside the laboratory - and the company expects to be producing at the rate of at least one million litres of the fuel each year from Blenheim by April. Blended with conventional mineral diesel, bio-diesel could run vehicles without the need for vehicle modifications. It would also help to meet the New Zealand Government B5 (5% blended) fuel targets by 2008 moving up to B20 as bio-fuel production increases."
" A German research vessel, the Sonne, will set sail tomorrow on a three-month voyage to study New Zealand's sea floor, with a particular focus on huge reserves of frozen methane hydrates. Conservative estimates have shown that gas hydrates may hold twice the energy contained in all the world's known reserves of oil, coal, and natural gas.
A lot or research into alternatives to oil is going on. The end of hydrocarbon based fuel may be some way off, but one thing for sure, the days of cheap fuel is coming to an end, the big question is, what will happen to oil prices after the Iraq war is over, will they come down as Arab producers seek to eliminate any alternatives, oil not only of economic use, but a lever to use against the US and the West as it did in the 1980's. Or will the supply versus demand push them to stay high enough for the alternatives to flourish. However it develops, the military will always have first call on resources.
"