Is the US's position in Afghanistan precarious?

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
ngatimozart,

Have you read Nagl's - Learning To Eat Soup With A Knife'' and Ahmad Rashid's - Descent Into Darkness''? These are excellent books on counter insurgency and on Afghanistan. The situation in Afghanistan, IMO, opinion shares some parallels not just with Vietnam but also with other places such as the French involvement in Algeria. What is so tragic about Afghanistan is that the U.S. missed a huge opportunity in the 2002-2004 period at a time when the Taliban was very weak and when the conditions were ripe for achieving it's national goals and building a better Afghanistan.
No haven't Sturm. But I will put them on my list. I have a lot of papers on my list to read at the moment. Thanks for the books though. Yes I agree 2002 - 2004 would have been ideal and methinks an ANZAC & UK led hearts and mind campaign would have done wonders. Different philosophy and approach to others.
 

PCShogun

New Member
No I haven't and a very enlightening read. Thanks for posting. Be a waste of money putting a bet on that the US Army will let him publish an unclas copy of his report.
For what its worth, I believe the general opinion is that we missed the window in Afghanistan. Now the Afghan's seem to be more concerned with striking deals and getting what they can for themselves, as its all going away in 2014. The Natives all want to play the middle now; not seeming to be against the Taliban, but not against the Coalition forces either, at least not in the open, and not until they leave.

Hopefully, the next conflict will be a "We blow your stuff up and you deal with the mess" campaign. This nation building crap is demoralizing when the people you are trying to help don't want to work for it.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
The single biggest problem of Afghanistan, from my POV, is Karzai and his government. arrayed in his government is a member of a so called northern alliance.
Karzai's biggest problem was that in the 2002-2005 period the U.S. had a policy of supporting and financing the warlords, due to Rumfeld's reluctance to commit U.S. troops and to save money.This had the effect of weakening the Karzai government and undermining the authority of his government, as well as costing him the support of many locals. Another problem was the U.S. fixation on Iraq, rather than Afghanistan, and the problem of focusing on AQ and letting Pakistan do what it wanted, as long as it cooperated in hunting down AQ.

To be fair to Karzai, though he was indecisive and weak at times, a lot of the problems he faces today are a result of flawed decisions made by the Americans years ago, including their policy of appeasement with Pakistan, that of closing a blind eye to certain Pakistani ''activities'', as long as they went after AQ.

For those who never knew them, they were a war criminals, a thugs and a drug lords who cause such a misery to the Afghans during years of civil war.
All the warlords - Fahim, Ismail Khan, Massoud, Hetmayer, Haqqani, Dostum - and every other resistance group from all the ethnic groups, have blood on their hands. If it wasn't for the NA, and the efforts of Massoud to form an effective coalition against the Taliban, the whole of Afghanistan would have fallen. Keep in mind that this was a time when there was hardly an effective Pashtun resistance movement.

Why don't get someone honest for a change. What about the ex-Taliban ambassador to pakistan, Abdul Salam Zaeef? He seem's like a descent and reasonable man. He may make a good president.
Never mind the Pashtuns, will the Tajiks, Hazara and Uzbeks, accept him - highly unlikely. Anyway, the influence of the Panjiri Tajiiks in the Karzai government is not a problem now, as most of the Tajiks, starting with Fahim, were forced to give up cabinet positions years ago.

http://www.ericmargolis.com/political_commentaries/obama-does-the-right-thing-in-afghanistan.aspx

http://www.independent.co.uk/opinio...s-think-it-can-win-in-afghanistan-936185.html

http://www.independent.co.uk/opinio...n-but-people-hate-the-government-1036905.html
 
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Palnatoke

Banned Member
@Cadredave, Lopez And Sturm

Ofcourse in the older days the method was simply genocide. But in more modern times, I think the statement is correct.

The last 100 years are full of examples of how not only of wastly more ressourcefull systems/forces, but also systems that provided, relatively speaking, important services to the population have been swept away by insurgencies (offering much less on that account). Particularely in the post colonial and de-colonisation wars.

In short, in the Western de-colonisation wars post WW2 just about every single fight against major insurgencies where lost by wastly more ressourcefull armies against rag-tag armies of insurgents. The war in Algier was an exception, (and btw "won" by what I label: "Gestapo methods").

Ofcourse not all wars was lost, the brits had a succes in Malaya - probably more due to the insurgency being isolated and ineffective than the methods employed against it.

On the other hand, many "regimes" had a high succes rate against well organised insurgencies. F.ex. in S. and Latin America (f.ex. the dirty war). These wars were fought in the "gestapo manner" and not by valient soldiers "clad in armour".

If you don't like the "gestapo" analogie, then let's call it the french manner or rather the Franco-American manner. These strategies were invented by french and amercan officiers under the impression of the wars in Indochine/Vietnam and Algier, and actively exported to the americas in their fight against "communists". A couple of the funding fathers of this line of millitary thinking are Galula and Trinquivier.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Ofcourse not all wars was lost, the brits had a succes in Malaya - probably more due to the insurgency being isolated and ineffective than the methods employed against it.
Not true at all. Like the Americans, the Brits went through a steep learning curve. The difference was they realised from the very start that nation building has to be conducted in parallel with counter insurgency efforts. The Emergency could easily have gotten out of hand, had it continued to be handled in a wrong manner. In Afghanistan, attempts at nation building and offering the locals a better alternative were ignored at first and when implemented, was not done properly due to a number of factors, namely infighting with the Pentagon and State Department, reluctance to let the Europeans help, the lack of understanding by most key American players as to the nature of the threat they faced, etc.

These strategies were invented by french and amercan officiers under the impression of the wars in Indochine/Vietnam and Algier, and actively exported to the americas in their fight against "communists".
Yes but these were all disasters. Success on the battlefield didn't led to the desired political results.
 

Palnatoke

Banned Member
Not true at all. Like the Americans, the Brits went through a steep learning curve. The difference was they realised from the very start that nation building has to be conducted in parallel with counter insurgency efforts. The Emergency could easily have gotten out of hand, had it continued to be handled in a wrong manner. In Afghanistan, attempts at nation building and offering the locals a better alternative were ignored at first and when implemented, was not done properly due to a number of factors, namely infighting with the Pentagon and State Department, reluctance to let the Europeans help, the lack of understanding by most key American players as to the nature of the threat they faced, etc.



Yes but these were all disasters. Success on the battlefield didn't led to the desired political results.
Let's just leave malaya by stating that the "rebels" were weak and had little or no popular surport. The Malaya thing is not an example of succesfull counter insurgency, more of how not to conduct an insurgency. And btw the "oil-spot" strategy has been ineffective at best in Helmand Afgh.

Algier was not a millitary disaster, but a millitary succes, and it was conducted in a different way than Indochine/Vietnam. Indochine/Vietnam was lost of the same reasons as Iraq was lost and Afgh. will be lost.
A nice symptom of our lack of understanding is the "offer a better alternative", "Build schools" and this "Hearts and Minds". At least we have progressed so far as to understand that the object of the war is the populance, not the territory, but we obviously don't understand the mechanismns that sway the people.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Let's just leave malaya by stating that the "rebels" were weak and had little or no popular surport. The Malaya thing is not an example of succesfull counter insurgency, more of how not to conduct an insurgency. And btw the "oil-spot" strategy has been ineffective at best in Helmand Afgh.
Why leave Malaya out? The point I'm trying to make, is that though the ''rebels'' were weak, enjoyed limited support, Malaya was a smaller country than Afghanistan, etc, if the campaign had been mismanaged as they nearly did at the early stages of the campaign, things would have gotten out of hand. As Nagl [who wrote the U.S. Army's counterinsurgency handbook] points out in his book, the key difference was, due to a number of historical and cultural reasons, the British army as a learning institution, adapted much better than the Americans did.

Algier was not a millitary disaster, but a millitary succes, and it was conducted in a different way than Indochine/Vietnam.
I never said it wasn't. What I did say was that success on the battlefield did not lead to the French achieving the political results they desired.
 
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Palnatoke

Banned Member
I never said it wasn't. What I did say was that success on the battlefield did not lead to the French achieving the political results they desired.
No, france won that war in every sense of the word, but it became clear to De Gaulle that by winning the war, France had lost its Algier, and because De Gaulle was in fact a statesman of premium grade he held a refferendum, that resulted in Algierian independence. You might know that large parts of the french army rebelled in response to De Gaulle's "treachery". Today it's not difficult to see that De Gaulle was right
 

Herodotus

New Member
No, france won that war in every sense of the word, but it became clear to De Gaulle that by winning the war, France had lost its Algier, and because De Gaulle was in fact a statesman of premium grade he held a refferendum, that resulted in Algierian independence. You might know that large parts of the french army rebelled in response to De Gaulle's "treachery". Today it's not difficult to see that De Gaulle was right
Ummm...no France did not win in Algeria. Read your Clausewitz: What is war again? It is politics by other means. Without a political victory military gains are meaningless. The FLN still controls Algeria some 50 years after the war.
 

Cadredave

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Palnatoke

In short, in the Western de-colonisation wars post WW2 just about every single fight against major insurgencies where lost by wastly more ressourcefull armies against rag-tag armies of insurgents. The war in Algier was an exception, (and btw "won" by what I label: "Gestapo methods").
Algier was lost in the end France methods did not win it any friends, and IMHO did more damage to it than anything else.

Ofcourse not all wars was lost, the brits had a succes in Malaya - probably more due to the insurgency being isolated and ineffective than the methods employed against it.
You need to study Malaya again the UK was on the road to getting a hiding by an enemy who were well armed & totally effective until General Sir Harold Briggs instigated his Briggs policy, which was a civilian lead government with Special branch intelligence fuzed to the military power. The only clasic Insurgency win by using Hearts & Minds not gestapo tactic. as Sturm said read the following book [Nagl's - Learning To Eat Soup With A Knife''] and it will explain why Malaya was successful & Vietnam was not

From wiki:
In 1951, some British army units began a "hearts and minds campaign" by giving medical and food aid to Malays and indigenous tribes. At the same time, they put pressure on MNLA by patrolling the jungle. The MNLA guerrillas were driven deeper into the jungle and denied resources. The MRLA extorted food from the Sakai and earned their enmity. Many of the captured guerrillas changed sides. In comparison, the MRLA never released any Britons alive.

In the end the conflict involved a maximum of 40,000 British and Commonwealth troops against a peak of about 7–8,000 communist guerrillas.


On the other hand, many "regimes" had a high succes rate against well organised insurgencies. F.ex. in S. and Latin America (f.ex. the dirty war). These wars were fought in the "gestapo manner" and not by valient soldiers "clad in armour".
And what has this done to those countries nothing they are baskets cases thanks to those gestapo tactics in regards to Malaysia which is a thriving properous country with a functional Democratic Government.

If you don't like the "gestapo" analogie, then let's call it the french manner or rather the Franco-American manner. These strategies were invented by french and amercan officiers under the impression of the wars in Indochine/Vietnam and Algier, and actively exported to the americas in their fight against "communists". A couple of the funding fathers of this line of millitary thinking are Galula and Trinquivier.
America fought a conventional war in Vietnam nothing gestapo about that, they did use unconventional methods but those were consigned to the Intelligence/ CIA community not the Conventional Line Divisions. France well they lost Vietnam to a conventional force as for Algeria:

again from wiki:

The Algerian war was a founding event in modern Algerian history. It left long-standing scars in both French and Algerian societies and continues to affect some segments of society in both countries. It was not until June 1999, 37 years after the conclusion of the conflict, that the French National Assembly officially acknowledged that a "war" had taken place,[3] while the Paris massacre of 1961 was recognized by the French state only in October 2001. On the other hand, the Oran massacre of 1962 by the FLN has also not yet been recognized by the Algerian state. Relations between France and Algeria are still deeply marked by this conflict and its aftermath.

These two are used today by us Military pers & Defence Colleges in how not to conduct a conflict against insurgencies if you think that modern armies are using Freanch & American ways to fight insurgents using brutal methods then your wrong, you might win the battle but you will lose the war ask france.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Here's are a couple of excellent articles/papers on the Brits and counter insurgency.

http://www.carlisle.army.mil/usawc/parameters/articles/06spring/markel.pdf

http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA479660

A John Nagl video in which he explaining the need for a new counter insurgency manual -

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QuDlrrRDfUw"]Book TV: Lt. Col. John Nagl "The U.S. Army/Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Field Manual" - YouTube[/nomedia]


Some Malaya videos -

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vyZo1raSgxY"]Malayan emergency, 1948-1960 - YouTube[/nomedia]


[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gEoltuCZG-E&feature=fvwrel"]Singapore and jungle fight in Malaya in 1950 - YouTube[/nomedia]


[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LP3p10Scx4A"]The Forgotten War in Malaya - YouTube[/nomedia]


[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WLY54ytXfss"]Malaysia: Kuala Medang, Pahang, fighting,1952. - YouTube[/nomedia]


Palnatoke,

I'm well aware that the situation in Afghanistan and Iraq was much tougher and much more complex than in Malaya. Both countries are much larger, have larger populations and have more borders than Malaya had. The insurgents in both countries also had access to significant external support, unlike the communists in Malaya who were practically on their own and only received moral and political support from China. Bear in mind that success in Malaya at the onset of the Emergency was not a forgone conclusion, the Brits did initially make their share of ''big army'' mistakes, the key difference however, is that they adapted and eventually understood the nature of the threat they faced and the responses needed to defeat that threat - which was a combination of military/political/ economic means. Often not realised is that a lot of the lessons learnt from the Malaya experience was also put into good use later by the British and Commonwealth, during the ''Confrontation'' with Indonesia, and by the Malaysians who fought the ''2nd Emergency'' from 1968 to 1989.
 
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Palnatoke

Banned Member
@Cadredave and Herodotus

The french army won the war as far as weapons and soldiers could win it, but the war didn't change the fundamental political problem (that Algerians, except the Pied noir, didn't quite fell as french as the french thought they ought to be), Cadredave is right that the methods employed by the french army was unacceptable to a part of the french public, but that didn't really affect the war effort, though did present france with a trauma that's still quite a live. On the other hand France left Algeria more or less head up after having held a proper refferendum. That was not to the liking of neither the army nor the Pied Noir, but the alternative was simply not part of reality.

"These two are used today by us Military pers & Defence Colleges in how not to conduct a conflict against insurgencies"

Not impressed.

"if you think that modern armies are using Freanch & American ways to fight insurgents using brutal methods then your wrong"

Did I say that?

"you might win the battle but you will lose the war ask france. "

Again a fundamental misconception. The millitary can't change basic political conditions (in fact it doesn't change much in the modern world), though it can beat down an insurgency, if used correctly.
The insurgency in Algeria was beaten down, the fundamental political conditions meant that Algeria was, and in retrospect had always been, lost for France.

In the french indochine wars, Vietnam, Iraq, afgh. (Current and USSR times) e.t.c. the army, was/is unable to beat down the insurgency and thus suffered a classical millitary defeat. With the exception of afghanistan, each of those wars could have ended with a political "win" in some shape, but the millitary failed to arrive at that point.
 

Palnatoke

Banned Member
@Sturm

All respect for the malayan campaign, I just don't think it's representative nor very "generic" for the revolutionary or subversive wars that we saw in the 20th cent. and still see.

Let's take Iraq; A "few" insurgents strats "throwing bombs", to begin with they choose the wrong target, the US millitary. But in time they learnt, and started throwing bombs at fellow Iraqies: police officers, women, children etc. And in a very short time the entire country is thrown into turmoil and chaos.

Have you ever wondered how it is that a few bad guys in a neighbourhood ("a gang", "the mafia" etc.) can turn it into hell for 99% of those (ordinarry) people that live there? And why is it that it is so difficult for the police to do something about those guys - after all the ordinarry people must know who they are...?
 

Sampanviking

Banned Member
Returning to the OP, I would have to say that describing the position of the US in Afghanistan as "precarious" is wildly over optimistic, while "lost" is far more on the money.

An army is effectively isolated in a land locked country where the majority of the population are extremely hostile towards it and which itself is surrounded by countries equally hostile. Supply routes are precarious and still being squeezed in a way that is best described as a noose slowly being tightened.

This is a war in which the "enemy" is no less effective than they were a decade ago and in which the conditions of victory are expressed in the vaguest of terms and with absolutely no reference by which their achievement can be measured.

Ultimately this is a situation which NATO is Institutionally incapable of winning because they are an external force seen by nearly all sides as an occupier and not a partner. The only organisation that has the ability to stabilise Afghanistan is the SCO and the reason for this is again Structural and Institutional and rests not so much on military might, but on Afghanistan; being seen as an equal partner in the process and because each major Afghan ethnic group has the support of an ethnic state in the SCO either as full or applicant members and which will have an interest in mentoring the situation and ensuring the provision of effective Interlocutors both inside and outside the country.

NATO/US can offer nothing but the same misery continuing indefinitely and without respite.
 

JGA

New Member
Look at Syria, their Gestapo type Government has actually created insurgency, Afghanistan is all 'hearts and minds' and that has failed . To claim that there is a method to achieve victory of a nations 'mind' is ridiculous let alone one method that fits all. The only war that can be won nowadays is for land with-out conserving the indigenous population..genocide or at least to the point where all national identity is no longer. To win a war you must take into consideration culture which is never effectively done.Talking about the people and their improved living conditions will win hearts and minds, its an irrelevant ideology, you would all agree that if any other country invaded yours, regardless of what they were 'achieving' in the name of your welfare, regardless of how great the terms were or how righteous the invader was it would be defiance to the last breath. People want there country to be on their terms. In this day and age the only war that you can win is one that you are on the defensive of an occupied country.
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
a general comment worth absorbing

a little bit of pause might be in order for some of you who are seeking to lecture others on the effectiveness or technical concepts behind waging war in COIN environments.

some of the people being lectured about what and how to do the business have more than a passing academic interest.

it would be well worth remembering that before foisting opinions on others about how the job is done.


 

Cadredave

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Palnatoke;

The french army won the war as far as weapons and soldiers could win it, but the war didn't change the fundamental political problem (that Algerians, except the Pied noir, didn't quite fell as french as the french thought they ought to be),
On 4 November de Gaulle announced a “new course”, which would eventually lead to an “Algerian Algeria”. He directed a referendum on the issue of “self-determination” to be held on 8 January 1961. Despite the appalling riots in Algiers, this went on and presented de Gaulle with an overwhelming vote of support from a war-weary French population.

Challe, shabbily treated since his return to France, saw this as a betrayal of all he had fought to achieve in Algeria, and resigned from the service. Even more so: when de Gaulle announced the decision to negotiate with the FLN, he offered his leadership to the military plotters. A speech by de Gaulle on 11 April 1961, in which he referred to “decolonisation” in Algeria, acted as the spark for revolt. On the same day Challe – accompanied by General André Zeller (erstwhile Inspector-General of Ground Forces) - flew secretly to Algeria, made contact with an ex-air force general, Edmond Jouhaud, and prepared a mutiny by many senior officers, based on the headquarters of the 1e REP, at Zeralda. Their plan was for the 1e REP to seize key centres in Algiers and for the generals – soon to be joined by Salan – to take power. They would then rule Algeria until the ALN had been defeated, after which a pied noir government would be appointed.

The storm broke on 21 April 1961, when four generals – Salan, Challe, Edmond Jouhard and André Zeller – instigated a military coup in Algiers, which was seen as a first step in the overthrow of the Paris government. Supported by dissident paras, they held the city for five days, but to no avail: the plan did not work.

Tanks rolled on the streets of Paris as precaution against a possible airborne coup from Algeria: indeed, two groups of paras, totalling 2.400, were waiting in woods outside Paris, but, deprived of their leaders and reinforcement from Algeria, they disbanded. Most of the 45 Noratlas transports in Algeria flew empty to airfields in southern France, but combat air patrols were flown by Super Mystére fighters along the Rhone valley to force down any aircraft making for the capital. The French public rallied to de Gaulle in an amazing display of national solidarity, forcing the generals to abandon their plans. Without support in France itself the revolt was unsuccessful and the leaders had to flee: by 25 April Challe and Zeller were forced to surrender, while Salan, Jouhard and most of the other officers involved went underground. The 1e REP was disbanded and never re-established. In the aftermath of the failed coup five generals and 200 other officers were arrested and hastily trialled.

It dont mater how well you might perform on the battlefield if you lose the political battle then you lost and thats the difference with Malaya you cant escape that fact, The above is not a victory parade for a victorious French Army after Algeria.

Cadredave is right that the methods employed by the french army was unacceptable to a part of the french public, but that didn't really affect the war effort,
Didnt affect the war effort maybe not but it affected Public opinion this is what sways the politicians who then direct the Military and the French public were warry of this war they wanted out and the Generals lost sight of there Political Master who have the last say.

though did present france with a trauma that's still quite a live. On the other hand France left Algeria more or less head up after having held a proper refferendum. That was not to the liking of neither the army nor the Pied Noir, but the alternative was simply not part of reality.
Got know idea what your on about please elaborate.

"These two are used today by us Military pers & Defence Colleges in how not to conduct a conflict against insurgencies"

Not impressed.
Not impressed what COIN experience do you have please tell me im very interested and will bow to your ultimate knowledge, here my question to you,

Question:
Which Line of operation in Afghanistan would you surrender to follow your gestapo tactics in front of the worlds media 24/7 and expect to get away with it name three of them please because im not impressed now.

if you think that modern armies are using Freanch & American ways to fight insurgents using brutal methods then your wrong"

Did I say that?
yes you implied that to win an insurgency Brutal methods are the only ways to win,

"you might win the battle but you will lose the war ask france. "

Again a fundamental misconception. The millitary can't change basic political conditions (in fact it doesn't change much in the modern world), though it can beat down an insurgency, if used correctly.
The insurgency in Algeria was beaten down, the fundamental political conditions meant that Algeria was, and in retrospect had always been, lost for France.
Your basic premise was that France use of brutal gestapo methods won the war in Algeria my counter was that those methods ulitmately lost public opinion at home which forced the Government to look for another way out of the conflict which ended with full Independance for Algeria.

In the french indochine wars
,
Indo China the French were defeated by general Giap using conventional means not by an insurgency totally different.

A classic case of not understanding that conventional tactics will not defeat an insurgency.

Irag successfully handed back to the Gov of Iraq once the US applied there COIN doctrine written by Gen David H. Petraeus same doctrine being applied in Afghanistan.

The same doctrine that i as part of our govt contribution to Afghanistan have applied in our Area of Operations succesfully so successfully that our area has begun transition to GIRoA, im not impressed by someone trying to school me when it is plane to me you have no understanding of the doctrine & its practicable application in very trying conditions . Im not some key board warrior thank you I have studied & applied key lessons learnt in COIN Operations when i see someone talking about one line of operation in a COIN environment then I know you have no understanding of COIN.

COIN is about the populace thats why its called Hearts & Minds security does not have primacy over the other Lines of Ops they are interlocked concentrate to much on security and you will loss the populace and the war.

last but not least:
"The West has all the watches but we have all the time"
And this is why western governments will fail in COIN Ops its all about the long game not voing cycles.
 

Palnatoke

Banned Member
Look at Syria, their Gestapo type Government has actually created insurgency, Afghanistan is all 'hearts and minds' and that has failed . To claim that there is a method to achieve victory of a nations 'mind' is ridiculous let alone one method that fits all. The only war that can be won nowadays is for land with-out conserving the indigenous population..genocide or at least to the point where all national identity is no longer. To win a war you must take into consideration culture which is never effectively done.Talking about the people and their improved living conditions will win hearts and minds, its an irrelevant ideology, you would all agree that if any other country invaded yours, regardless of what they were 'achieving' in the name of your welfare, regardless of how great the terms were or how righteous the invader was it would be defiance to the last breath. People want there country to be on their terms. In this day and age the only war that you can win is one that you are on the defensive of an occupied country.
Much agree, I think Ghandi put it something like this: "The indian people would prefer a bad indian goverment, to an excellent British goverment".

Though, take Iraq as an example, it appeared that initially the clear majority of the Iraqies was friendly dispositioned to the coalition, ofcourse under the pretext that the coalition would leave when order was reinstalled. Ofcourse there where groups who felt otherwise, though they seemed minor and isolated - to begin with.

What I am putting to you, is that, that attitude changes as the insurgency "subvert" the country. It's part of the dynamics of the insurection that the public oppinion is swayed. Ordinary people suddenly starts turning against those that promises order and stability and starts surporting those that are destroying the institutions of state, the administration, the ones that are terrorizing them if not litterally murdering them.

I think the analogy to organised crime is telling. When things like the Italien mafia gets out of hand, lawinforcers are confronted with the huge problem that ordinary citizens are more or less quitly surporting the mafia; They don't like the mafia, who is objectively destroying or in the least negatively impacting their lives, but in actions they are never the less surporting the mafia. In Mexico, where gang and drug related crime is completely out of hand, you got Rock stars singing about the great deeds of brutal drug lords, like they were Robin Hood like champions of the people...

I suggest that what happens, is that "survival instincts" kicks in. And a simple survival strategy is to join or submit to the one you fear, because then you are safe (from him, at least). It's not necessarely a conscious act, there is something in human psychology that's suceptible to such "forced suggestion".
(as a side remark, if you pool the voters after a presidential election, you will find that many more says they voted for the winner, than actually did vote for the winner - it's good to be on the winning side, so we choose that we were).
 

surpreme

Member
Granted, things were less challenging and complex than in Afghanistan but ''hearts and minds'' programmes, when implemented properly have proved to be a success before....

It's a great pity that that in the 2002-2003 period, when the Taliban was very weak and disorganised and when the majority of the Afghans were welcoming change, the U.S. started to get distracted with Iraq. If only more troops had been poured in, a more serious effort with the Europeans [who were very eager] had been made towards development and aid projects to rebuild Afghanistan and give the locals and alternative and if only the U.S. would have placed more focus on the Taliban than AQ, things would not been in such a great mess now. It says a lot that 11 years on, after billions spent and thousands of Afghans killed, there is now an agreement between the West and the Karzai government that talks have to be conducted with the Taliban.....
The Taliban is weakened military. The SF operations in the beginning worked just fine. If you look at the Taliban what can they do nothing but road bomb, suicide missions, and suicide bombers. There not making any real military operation no more. The leadership is going down hill look at how many commanders are dead some were good leaders it will be hard replace these commanders. After 10 years of fighting American forces the Taliban starting to show that they are weakening. In any war if the insurgents can't conduct military operation than it go to a lower level like police work. Where the US, NATO, and ANA just protect and serve also it protect high profile targets.
 
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