Iran and Related Geopolitical Defense Issues
- Thread starter LogisticsGuy
- Start date
If Iran strikes first, then they need to go all in. Although swarm attacks might work at the beginning of the conflict and damage a destroyer or 2, that just isn't enough and definitively these tactics won't work more than once or twice. Even that might be optimistic, is it that hard for USN to have an Apache or Cobra helicopter flying around or maybe a Predator/Reaper overhead?
OK, Iran gets the first shot in but that's it, what have they achieved? Pissed off US public and induced massive retribution on Iran for a destroyer? That's not a good exchange......IMO, Iran needs a lot more asymmetric warfare to make it hurt, the first day element of surprise is their biggest asset, they shouldn't waste it with swarm attacks that damage a few destroyers. They need a coordinated attack from mini-subs, the Kilos, swarm attacks and some land based launched anti missiles, plus whatever else they have....I would add some suicide bombers to attack embassies or US military bases, a few psy-ops attacks or disinformation, rumors and leaks to media, maybe foment some sh*t in Iraq, Saudi Arabia or Kuwait...all this has to happen near simultaneously. You need to overwhelm or induce sensory overload on US forces on multiple tracks to really cause some damage, if Iran goes in slow or uncoordinated random attacks, I don't think they will achieve much against a conventional US force.
Beatmaster
New Member
Guys just a idea, the strait of hormus is what? 40mile wide?
Would that not be a ideal setting for land based anti ship missiles?
They do not have to be super advanced they just have to be in numbers...
Keep in mind even a carrier strike group can only take so much.
Imagine a well placed trap for the US carrier fleet and Iran does have a serious shot in doing some really serious damage.
Obviously Iran is going to lose any form of conflict, but that is not the idea they already know that in a mano o mano situation they are going to get a slapping that will thunder in their ears for the next 100 years.
However lets face facts the US has alot of troops in the region however Iran could make a serious first strike if they really wanted to.
Simple fact before the US has gathered its forces to face Iran both air, land and sea its going to take a couple of days.
Sure Iran does not have any option of a victory but they could wreck havoc in the region.
We all have to understand that Iran is not Afghanistan and its certainly not Iraq, i believe its save to say that Iran is in a way better shape and also a bit more advanced then Iraq ever was.
My point here is that their army might be shitty to our standards but its a army and its willing to sell their skin at a huge prize and forgive me for saying this but i am pretty sure they are able to pull off a stunt and land a couple of nasty blows to US forces in the region IF and only IF they plan and execute the opportunities that they might see correctly.
In regards to the blockade you do not need 50 destroyers to block the strait a few thousand mines will do fine supported by air strikes and land based hardware.
So even if Iran fails its going to take several weeks before the situation calms down and that is only IF it does not turn into a all lout war.
Understand this if Iran does this they can seriously damage the world economy which would be disastrous for many nations including the US.
And neither the US and NATO are ready for this.
As i said before Iran does not have any option to win thats simply out of the question but what they can do is enough to upset the region and destabilize it not to mention the fact that like it or not Iran has the advantage of being able to exploit the geografic surroundings.
Also i am sure that the sanctions will start hurting little by little but ask yourself the question is it going to be enough to stop them?
There are 4 options:
1 Live with the bomb (Which is not acceptable but might give room to start talking knowing that mutual destruction will come into play forcing the Iranians to settle down as obviously they will have to understand that if they ever going to use that one bomb then they will be turned into a christmas tree which can be seen from the moon lol )
2 Take surgical strikes against facilities (Which only sets them back and will anger them greatly and cause extremely difficult situations )
3 A all out war (which would be a very costly one even if the odds on a complete victory is 100%)
4 Another 100 rounds of sanctions and find out one day that Iran does not have one bomb but a truckload full.
Other then these options there are non and of those 4 options none is one to accept.
However now put yourself into the shoes of Iran, it wants that bomb simple as that they will not back down from the program i believe thats kinda obvious.
So regardless if this N-Program is in everyones black book Iran will defend itself and practically speaking they can, and thats something what most do not understand.
Yes technological differences are key in any battle but keep in mind that a one dollar bullet will kill you just as effective as a 10000 dollar golden bullet with GPS.
The thing is their low tech can be their biggest advantage as they are able to counter any attack with a Taliban like counter action where low tech hardware and weapons have proven to be most effective. (Look in Iraq and Afghanistan)
Another thing to consider is that the Iran its missile sites can also pose a really serious danger to any city or base in a 5000 miles radius (Give a take a couple miles not sure how far they can reach)
In regards to Irans allies and friends i believe that most of them will not like to be involved as each one of them has more to lose then to gain in this particular situation however its save to say that some of them might trade under the radar.
As i said there are 4 options imo and none of them are acceptable fact remains the international community does not need this "war" as its way to costly and it will have a very negative footprint on the economic situation as analysts on CNN and Reuters already said.
Even the US will face severe problems if they be drawn into a war, in fact its in the US its own best interest to keep Israel at bay and try to avoid any major conflict unless it has 200% support of Russia and China and no other options and even then we all are going to feel this in the aftermath.
Short said the knife cuts on both sides and it does not matter which one cuts you first but its going to hurt one way or another, and thats the shitty deal with Iran in order to shut them and stop them we should have taken actions against them 15 years ago then we would not have this problem. (Thats the same thing nearly any analyst said on both CNN and Reuters and other news agencies)
So its not a question anymore if we want but its a question if we can and if we are prepared to clean the mess after it.....as i said this aint a clear case like Iraq or Afghanistan this is serious and a hell of a lot more complex.
Would that not be a ideal setting for land based anti ship missiles?
They do not have to be super advanced they just have to be in numbers...
Keep in mind even a carrier strike group can only take so much.
Imagine a well placed trap for the US carrier fleet and Iran does have a serious shot in doing some really serious damage.
Obviously Iran is going to lose any form of conflict, but that is not the idea they already know that in a mano o mano situation they are going to get a slapping that will thunder in their ears for the next 100 years.
However lets face facts the US has alot of troops in the region however Iran could make a serious first strike if they really wanted to.
Simple fact before the US has gathered its forces to face Iran both air, land and sea its going to take a couple of days.
Sure Iran does not have any option of a victory but they could wreck havoc in the region.
We all have to understand that Iran is not Afghanistan and its certainly not Iraq, i believe its save to say that Iran is in a way better shape and also a bit more advanced then Iraq ever was.
My point here is that their army might be shitty to our standards but its a army and its willing to sell their skin at a huge prize and forgive me for saying this but i am pretty sure they are able to pull off a stunt and land a couple of nasty blows to US forces in the region IF and only IF they plan and execute the opportunities that they might see correctly.
In regards to the blockade you do not need 50 destroyers to block the strait a few thousand mines will do fine supported by air strikes and land based hardware.
So even if Iran fails its going to take several weeks before the situation calms down and that is only IF it does not turn into a all lout war.
Understand this if Iran does this they can seriously damage the world economy which would be disastrous for many nations including the US.
And neither the US and NATO are ready for this.
As i said before Iran does not have any option to win thats simply out of the question but what they can do is enough to upset the region and destabilize it not to mention the fact that like it or not Iran has the advantage of being able to exploit the geografic surroundings.
Also i am sure that the sanctions will start hurting little by little but ask yourself the question is it going to be enough to stop them?
There are 4 options:
1 Live with the bomb (Which is not acceptable but might give room to start talking knowing that mutual destruction will come into play forcing the Iranians to settle down as obviously they will have to understand that if they ever going to use that one bomb then they will be turned into a christmas tree which can be seen from the moon lol )
2 Take surgical strikes against facilities (Which only sets them back and will anger them greatly and cause extremely difficult situations )
3 A all out war (which would be a very costly one even if the odds on a complete victory is 100%)
4 Another 100 rounds of sanctions and find out one day that Iran does not have one bomb but a truckload full.
Other then these options there are non and of those 4 options none is one to accept.
However now put yourself into the shoes of Iran, it wants that bomb simple as that they will not back down from the program i believe thats kinda obvious.
So regardless if this N-Program is in everyones black book Iran will defend itself and practically speaking they can, and thats something what most do not understand.
Yes technological differences are key in any battle but keep in mind that a one dollar bullet will kill you just as effective as a 10000 dollar golden bullet with GPS.
The thing is their low tech can be their biggest advantage as they are able to counter any attack with a Taliban like counter action where low tech hardware and weapons have proven to be most effective. (Look in Iraq and Afghanistan)
Another thing to consider is that the Iran its missile sites can also pose a really serious danger to any city or base in a 5000 miles radius (Give a take a couple miles not sure how far they can reach)
In regards to Irans allies and friends i believe that most of them will not like to be involved as each one of them has more to lose then to gain in this particular situation however its save to say that some of them might trade under the radar.
As i said there are 4 options imo and none of them are acceptable fact remains the international community does not need this "war" as its way to costly and it will have a very negative footprint on the economic situation as analysts on CNN and Reuters already said.
Even the US will face severe problems if they be drawn into a war, in fact its in the US its own best interest to keep Israel at bay and try to avoid any major conflict unless it has 200% support of Russia and China and no other options and even then we all are going to feel this in the aftermath.
Short said the knife cuts on both sides and it does not matter which one cuts you first but its going to hurt one way or another, and thats the shitty deal with Iran in order to shut them and stop them we should have taken actions against them 15 years ago then we would not have this problem. (Thats the same thing nearly any analyst said on both CNN and Reuters and other news agencies)
So its not a question anymore if we want but its a question if we can and if we are prepared to clean the mess after it.....as i said this aint a clear case like Iraq or Afghanistan this is serious and a hell of a lot more complex.
Yes, even combined with land based artillery, but I am sure this threat is very well understood by USN. The seizure of the islands as suggested earlier would seem the ideal way of turning a threat back on to the Iranians.
It is interesting to do a comparison between Qushm and Okinawa, the size, geography, and geology are fairly similar. If the Iranians have constructed similar underground defenses, invading it would be very bloody.
First I must say that this forum is what I have searched after for a long time, everyone here seems to share my interest in the subject which is outstanding.
I agree with others that Iran must understand that they can not hope to win an extended conflict with the US. What I am concerned for is an Iranian attempt to "bloody our nose" with the belief that it would weaken our resolve to stay the course.
With the Perry class FFG without its MK13 launcher, those ships would have to rely soley on the CIWS for defense against anti ship missles. I do not think it would be out of the question for a first strike by Iran to be successfull against a lone Perry frigate if given an oppurtunity. The memory of the Stark listing from missle damage returns to my mind.
How well can we track their efforts to mine the area? I am sure our ability to track that is much better now but again, the image of the Sammual B Roberts nearly tore in half comes to mind. The danger is real, I take nothing from the quality of our sailors and ships but do fear the losing of a ship if all stars were aligned.
Lastly,
The area is shallow, would it not be possible for an Irainan Kilo class diesel/electric sub to get a lucky shot in with their quiet nature and difficult sonar conditions? I am sure that the USN would be able to clean house after the conflict started but the inital blow is what concerns me. As a police officer and not a naval officer I may see things differently but believe in this instance we both have to react to a threat. That reaction time is what kills most police officers and is what could be dangerous to our ships here. Am I off base?
I agree with others that Iran must understand that they can not hope to win an extended conflict with the US. What I am concerned for is an Iranian attempt to "bloody our nose" with the belief that it would weaken our resolve to stay the course.
With the Perry class FFG without its MK13 launcher, those ships would have to rely soley on the CIWS for defense against anti ship missles. I do not think it would be out of the question for a first strike by Iran to be successfull against a lone Perry frigate if given an oppurtunity. The memory of the Stark listing from missle damage returns to my mind.
How well can we track their efforts to mine the area? I am sure our ability to track that is much better now but again, the image of the Sammual B Roberts nearly tore in half comes to mind. The danger is real, I take nothing from the quality of our sailors and ships but do fear the losing of a ship if all stars were aligned.
Lastly,
The area is shallow, would it not be possible for an Irainan Kilo class diesel/electric sub to get a lucky shot in with their quiet nature and difficult sonar conditions? I am sure that the USN would be able to clean house after the conflict started but the inital blow is what concerns me. As a police officer and not a naval officer I may see things differently but believe in this instance we both have to react to a threat. That reaction time is what kills most police officers and is what could be dangerous to our ships here. Am I off base?
Russia would love nothing more (though they won't say so publicly) then for the US to unilaterally (or with a flimsy coalition of East European NATO) get into a war with Iran. It would drive another wedge between the Europeans and the US, it would also mean the US will rely on Russian support from Central Asia, and will be too occupied to deal with Russian geo-political expansion in the FSU and elsewhere.
On a side note, Iran doesn't have the money for a couple hundred Sukhois, or J-10s. Look at the MKI program. It's over 10 billion USD, the timeframe is ~15-20 years for all deliveries, and it's 272 airframes. They could have purchased 12-36 Su-30MK2s in the 2000-2009 timeframe (before the sanctions kicked in). But they seem intent on modifying F-5s rather then buy abroad.
Beatmaster
New Member
Well in regards to their Kilo Class sub(s) its save to say that the USN has their eye fixed on any important and potential danger that Iran might bring in.
So i believe that a lucky shot using a Kilo Class would be out of the question (Unless the USN becomes careless and reckless)
I believe that the real danger comes from underestimating Iran and its "lower" tech assets (The more mobile and less visible ones none the less still effective if used properly)
And yes if Iran wants to sink a destroyer or a carrier then thats something they could pull off after all regardless how power full a mighty carrier is, but against a full scale coordinated strike by Iran's forces its going to be a sitting duck.
Also what poppes into my mind is a kilo class sub bringing some special forces to use timed bombs on parked USN ships.....might sound funny but thats a real serious danger to the USN which has some assets in the region and virtually all of them are within reasonable distance.
They come, tag the target and fade into the dark....and the end result is a badly damaged USN ship.
Beatmaster
New Member
Side question: Would you know the state of Iran's airforces?
Do they have any significant assets at all? (Or are those 2 tornado's that have been shown on the news the best they got?)
And in regards to the sanctions does Iran produce own planes? and could they buy from nations who do not have signed the sanctions?
As i am sure there will be always a few nations that would play dirty.
Well, I think this is Iran's problem going forward. With sanctions not being removed anytime soon and Russia and China not seemingly ready to defy UN sanctions, well, there really isn't anybody that has a 200 jet fighters to give away. As Feanor noted, even if they signed a contract today, it would be years to deliver, train pilots and everything you need to go to war....plus it would be very expensive, I wouldn't think Russia would take credit...
China might be a better bet, if lets say USA delivers 60 F16s to Taiwan, I could see China selling some JF17 or maybe a few J10As in response but again it would require some time before you are able to use them....
Info on Iran air force: 64 F4s, about 30 F5s, maybe 25 F14s (that's a bit much IMO) and about 28 SU24s....from 2010 Flight International Directory World Air Forces...I think the SU24s are the most potent conventional weapon they have.
Iran has shown a picture of a small trainer, seems to me it was more mock up than really something ready to fly. Also that twin tail F5, maybe they have a few of them, IMO they are rebuilt old F5s, if they were new from the production line, shouldn't Iran have more than a couple flying around? All the info that Iran is producing a new fighter, I think is garbage, look at countries like Taiwan (IDF) or India with Tejas, look at the time and money,effort that it took those countries with help!!! to get some form of operational fighter, I think it is out of Iran capabilities to do it purely on their own.
As you can see, lot of stuff which is already long in the tooth and when you factor in all the new 4/4.5/5 th gen being introduced in the region like: UAE F16 Block60, Saudi Arabia old/newF15s, Israel getting F35s in a few years, India's MKIs,etc....I don't care how motivated those Iranian pilots are, you are going to the slaughterhouse if you are in a Phantom....and that's with all the fancy electronic warfare the Iranians say they are capable off since they "acquired" that RQ170.....
IMO, this is one of the main reason Iran needs to acquire nukes, with the sanctions not going away, just asymmetric warfare isn't going to be enough, probably everyday that goes by, that asymmetric edge goes away because how many countries in the region already operate Apaches/attack helicopters or will acquire UAVs which would be perfect to defeat swarm attacks? You don't want to be in on of those plastic/aluminum wonders when the heavy metal shows up...last but not least, not the most likely but you never know, (there are rumors of UAE maybe wanting to grab some of those little islands...) if those nations like SA or UAE ever decide to go on the offense and target ports,military installations, depots, area where swarms operate, Iran would have a very difficult time defending it's own airspace because of the gap in capabilities...
Iran has to stay somewhat close in terms of regular conventional forces to make the asymmetric stuff work for at least a day or two but with such gaps as we are starting to see, only a nuke could make up the difference.
Very good points, I imagine that their older aircraft are less than well maintained as well. It seems like Iran wanted to use their recent exercise to project what they feel is a serious threat to shipping. Then with everyone shaking in their boots the US would come back to the table and reduce sanctions on Iran.
With the reality of losing everything they have in a conflict with the US, it may be that all of this week's action was to bring more negotation power to the table. Their only other real option possibly is to conduct sporadic attacks on oil tankers, to cause UN/US the agrivation of having to escort assets. But to even have that work then Iran would have to take responibility for the attacks, which puts them right back to being wipped off the sea.
Now that Iran wants to talk again, what will be the next move when they do not get what they want from the talks? Or will talks give them the time they need to develop a weapon and overcome their military shortfalls by becoming a nuclear power?
With the reality of losing everything they have in a conflict with the US, it may be that all of this week's action was to bring more negotation power to the table. Their only other real option possibly is to conduct sporadic attacks on oil tankers, to cause UN/US the agrivation of having to escort assets. But to even have that work then Iran would have to take responibility for the attacks, which puts them right back to being wipped off the sea.
Now that Iran wants to talk again, what will be the next move when they do not get what they want from the talks? Or will talks give them the time they need to develop a weapon and overcome their military shortfalls by becoming a nuclear power?
I don't think it will be a push over, but Okinawa sounds a bit of an extreme comparison! The beauty for the US of taking Qushm is it limits ground forces exposure and yet provides a constant threat and sore to Iran....not sure what it does for property prices in Dubai ;-)
Surely a better way for China to punish the US in such a situation would be to just stop buying US bonds..?
I think that would hurt China's economy as well that's why IMO selling JF17s or a few J10As to Iran for US selling F16s to Taiwan would be a nice quid pro quo....as far as I know maybe US/China have agreed on it in secret talks, you never know.
I suspect it's the greatest worry China has, what does it do about US government debt, if it stops buying the world goes into global mettle down... but when do you say enough is enough.I think that would hurt China's economy as well that's why IMO selling JF17s or a few J10As to Iran for US selling F16s to Taiwan would be a nice quid pro quo....as far as I know maybe US/China have agreed on it in secret talks, you never know.
I think Iran would be unwise trying to engage in air to air combat with US aircraft, they will just end up as target practice. Better to invest limited resources in ground to air systems, if they can bring down large numbers of cruise missiles, they may force more manner sorties. The trouble might be that the US can fire so many missiles the Iranians my simply run out of SAMs?
Yeah,my bad, too much in a hurry, says 16 MIG29 and Revolutionary Guard 13 Su25.Also a mix of F6/F7 Chinese fighters, haven't heard much about them recently...
You have to wonder on how much those Su25 can fly because I don't think Iran got a whole lot of spares and the MIG 29 are also pretty old and not to the latest standard, how useful are they in a conflict?
The last few replies seem to be talking about what Iran needs (e.g SU30MKs, JF17s) and so on if they are available.
I think it doesn't really touch on whether IRIAF is being funded to make such a purchase even if the opportunity arise. I mean, even the F-5 rebuilding program is going on a rather slow pace.
I think it doesn't really touch on whether IRIAF is being funded to make such a purchase even if the opportunity arise. I mean, even the F-5 rebuilding program is going on a rather slow pace.