Future of Russian Military

[swerve]

Some quick facts on the growing Russian economy:

-10 years ago, Russian economy was a 200 billion economy, this year it has crossed $1.4 trillion mark.
-Today Russia is the 8th largest economy in the world in PPP, and by the end of the year it will overtake France to become the world's 6th largest.
-Last year foreign investment surged by a factor of 2.5 touching $100 billion.

-This year the Hydrocarbon exports will bring in more than $300 billion in earnings.
To put that into perspective in the 90's russia earned around $30 billion a year, roughly the same as the Soviet Union during the peak of the oil boom in the late 70's..

According to the World Bank (i.e. the organisation chiefly responsible for the PPP calculations others use), Russias GDP at PPP in 2007 was already 6th, behind Germany, but ahead of the UK. In billion USD -

5. Germany - 2754
6. Russia - 2088
7. UK - 2081
8. France - 2054
9. Brazil - 1834
10. Italy - 1780

The margin of error is such that in reality, we don't know which of Russia, the UK & France is top.

Most of the growth from $200 billion, or whatever it was, 10 years ago to $1290 billion (World Bank, again) in 2007 has been due to appreciation in the exchange rate, not real growth. Don't confuse them.

 

[Feanor]

The real growth is only starting right now, and the poor performance of the defense industry (not the few pioneers like KnAAPO or UVZ but the majority) reflects that very well. The unpleasant example is the Su-34 which "entered serial production" in 2006 but to date has only seen 2 aircraft delivered. Allegedly ten more are in assembly right now, and may be delivered this year. But then again it was reported that another one would be delivered last November.

 

[Wall83]

The real growth is only starting right now, and the poor performance of the defense industry (not the few pioneers like KnAAPO or UVZ but the majority) reflects that very well. The unpleasant example is the Su-34 which "entered serial production" in 2006 but to date has only seen 2 aircraft delivered. Allegedly ten more are in assembly right now, and may be delivered this year. But then again it was reported that another one would be delivered last November.

Is this because Russia dont have the money to buy more then two planes a year or is it the russian defence industry that just isnt able to build them any faster?
I meen two planes in one year and they call it "serial production"....come on.

 

[Jon K]

Is this because Russia dont have the money to buy more then two planes a year or is it the russian defence industry that just isnt able to build them any faster?
I meen two planes in one year and they call it "serial production"....come on.

Welcome to the Wonderland. Cost of Russian work is supposed to be smaller than that of in EU. (Of course, the result per worker is also much smaller). Compare what the 27 billion Euro budget would buy for Spain, Italy, France etc. and then look at what Russia gets. The money is flowing somewhere else than to armed forces.

 

[Feanor]

Welcome to the Wonderland. Cost of Russian work is supposed to be smaller than that of in EU. (Of course, the result per worker is also much smaller). Compare what the 27 billion Euro budget would buy for Spain, Italy, France etc. and then look at what Russia gets. The money is flowing somewhere else than to armed forces.

Enlighten us. Where is the money flowing?

 

[drandul]

Enlighten us. Where is the money flowing?

That is easy generals need to have funding for new stealthy versions of personal yachts, sport cars and land in middle-terrain for small personal military bases with swimming pools and tennis courts

 

[Jon K]

That is easy generals need to have funding for new stealthy versions of personal yachts, sport cars and land in middle-terrain for small personal military bases with swimming pools and tennis courts

Yes, officers need to keep fit to lead from the front. As they age, they just need more elaborate PT facilities...

 

[F-15 Eagle]

Can someone please tell me how many combat aircraft, tanks/APC, artillery, and ships and submarines Russia has? I can't find any good sources and the only one I can fins is wikipeidia and we all know how that is.

 

[baranek]

F-15 Eagle

Here is probably the best source about russian equipment:
www.warfare.ru
You can also take a look on globalsecurity.org
For example state of russian navy(very reliable): http://warfare.ru/?catid=243&linkid=1720

 

[swerve]

Can someone please tell me how many combat aircraft, tanks/APC, artillery, and ships and submarines Russia has? I can't find any good sources and the only one I can fins is wikipeidia and we all know how that is.

Perhaps Anatoliy Serdyukov . . . At least, he could order someone to find out.

Holdings west of the Urals have been declared for CFE purposes, but they exclude quite a lot of gear. Also, it's complicated by the number still in the inventory, but not operational, some of which may be reserve stocks capable of being mobilised, others stored for too long without maintenance to be usable but not yet written off. Tricky.

 

[kato]

Tons of equipment was moved across the Ural for CFE, just like the USA moved tons of equipment outside the CFE treaty zone in the early 90s.

 

[Feanor]

But it's not that hard to estimate operation equipment. We know ~how many divisions, and what their content and make up is.

Drandul I suppose you have some evidence? Russia has been increasing military spendings on a regular basis and that increase has been matched with increased training and batches (if small) of new equipment as well as an ongoing fullscale transfer to a professional army.

 

[drandul]

But it's not that hard to estimate operation equipment. We know ~how many divisions, and what their content and make up is.

Drandul I suppose you have some evidence? Russia has been increasing military spendings on a regular basis and that increase has been matched with increased training and batches (if small) of new equipment as well as an ongoing fullscale transfer to a professional army.

Yes- you right- at least all operational battle ships and submarines not staying all time in harbor but doing some patrols and training operations in ocean. (I can see it in my home's window- activity in military port is high). But I can see a brand new cottages and luxury cars owned by some high rank officers as well... sorry- no any documented evidences :smooth

 

[Feanor]

Well lets consider, Russia restarted the production line for strategic bombers, is re-arming the tank forces, and the infantry with new APCs and IFVs (albeit slowly). Switching over to a professional force (rather rapidly) and is in the middle of modernization programs for a large chunk of the air force, with new helicopters and aircraft alread having been delivered. There are more and more reports of Russina Naval taskforces activizing training activity. Russian strategic bombers have resumed patrols, and the Russian submarine force is finally receiving new boats (the latest one only a few days ago, allegedly a secret design of combined diesel and nuclear power). I don't know about high ranking officers (I'm sure corruption is rife) as I don't live there any more, but you can't deny that someone up high is trying to revitalize the armed forces.

 

[Jon K]

Well lets consider, Russia restarted the production line for strategic bombers, is re-arming the tank forces, and the infantry with new APCs and IFVs (albeit slowly). Switching over to a professional force (rather rapidly) and is in the middle of modernization programs for a large chunk of the air force, with new helicopters and aircraft alread having been delivered. There are more and more reports of Russina Naval taskforces activizing training activity. Russian strategic bombers have resumed patrols, and the Russian submarine force is finally receiving new boats (the latest one only a few days ago, allegedly a secret design of combined diesel and nuclear power). I don't know about high ranking officers (I'm sure corruption is rife) as I don't live there any more, but you can't deny that someone up high is trying to revitalize the armed forces.

Historically UK moved from conscription to volunteer forces within some three years, while in the US it took about same time. This was during full blow Cold War. And if you look at the acquisition programs, the numbers are really small, even quite small countries have made more purchases.

What Russia seems to lack is political will to cut off the dead flesh. Putin adminstration is mostly throwing just money after the problems.

 

[nevidimka]

Yes- you right- at least all operational battle ships and submarines not staying all time in harbor but doing some patrols and training operations in ocean. (I can see it in my home's window- activity in military port is high). But I can see a brand new cottages and luxury cars owned by some high rank officers as well... sorry- no any documented evidences :smooth

These corrupt military officers in possesion of luxury assets should be sacked or put in jail. The Administration must come down hard on these corrupt military mens who seems to be all over Russian defence establishment. Hopefully Putin will clean up the corruption that is sucking the military's blood from inside.

Also, the Russian Navy and aviation is gonna make another joint exercise in the Indian Ocean, after the recent Altlantic deployment success.

 

[startacek1]

Overview

5 Days Ago 07:46 AM
Jon K Quote:
Originally Posted by Wall83
Is this because Russia dont have the money to buy more then two planes a year or is it the russian defence industry that just isnt able to build them any faster?
I meen two planes in one year and they call it "serial production"....come on.

Welcome to the Wonderland. Cost of Russian work is supposed to be smaller than that of in EU. (Of course, the result per worker is also much smaller). Compare what the 27 billion Euro budget would buy for Spain, Italy, France etc. and then look at what Russia gets. The money is flowing somewhere else than to armed forces.
5 Days Ago 06:47 AM
Wall83 Quote:
Originally Posted by Feanor
The real growth is only starting right now, and the poor performance of the defense industry (not the few pioneers like KnAAPO or UVZ but the majority) reflects that very well. The unpleasant example is the Su-34 which "entered serial production" in 2006 but to date has only seen 2 aircraft delivered. Allegedly ten more are in assembly right now, and may be delivered this year. But then again it was reported that another one would be delivered last November.

Is this because Russia dont have the money to buy more then two planes a year or is it the russian defence industry that just isnt able to build them any faster?
I meen two planes in one year and they call it "serial production"....come on.
5 Days Ago 08:53 PM
Feanor The real growth is only starting right now, and the poor performance of the defense industry (not the few pioneers like KnAAPO or UVZ but the majority) reflects that very well. The unpleasant example is the Su-34 which "entered serial production" in 2006 but to date has only seen 2 aircraft delivered. Allegedly ten more are in assembly right now, and may be delivered this year. But then again it was reported that another one would be delivered last November.


How will these things stand up in the Georgia conflict? Missile production stats:?

If they lost too much supply too early then their troops on ground will get shot at by the Georgians. It's been almost 1.5 weeks of prep officially so far. But their supply depots are in range of a few longer range Georgian missiles so could they take a major loss? Just in response to the reports of bombings against local oil lines, plus russian lines in Caspian could get hit.

I'm just refering to the amount of supplies the russians have, I havn't heard anything about the Georgians.

 

[Feanor]

What long range Georgian missiles?

 

[flyer19999]

Russia's defense a joke?

Russia has the money, however there is so much corruption in the country most of the money is stolen by greedy business people. Moscow now ranks as the world's leading city with millionaries. The corruption is worst than that in the USA and elsewhere.

Since the fall of the Soviet Union crime and corruption are everywhere in Russia. There are very few checks-and-balances. If Russia could create an accounting of money practices they would have enough money for defense and some left over.

 

[Feanor]

The problem is that the Russian military is very large. Given current funding, the procurement that's currently happening is pretty much all that could happen. The USA has almost the same size armed forces, but spends 10 times more and is still experiencing difficulties with funds.