Ozzy Blizzard
New Member
ok guys how do you think it would pan out north and south went at it with no outside intervention? ok weapon and supply shipments from allies but no direct intervention.
American/Allied forces would be in it from the beginning. Any scenerio that doesnt include that would be unrealistic.Ozzy Blizzard said:ok guys how do you think it would pan out north and south went at it with no outside intervention? ok weapon and supply shipments from allies but no direct intervention.
China and Russia are vital to preserve the North Korea armed forces' operational status... if both Koreas were hypothetically isolated from the rest of the world, South Korea's industry would be able to resupply their armed forces much better than NK.Rich said:American/Allied forces would be in it from the beginning. Any scenerio that doesnt include that would be unrealistic.
And yet its yank troops walking the line of the DMZ, with 37,000 more in country along with a large contingent of hardware. Add to that the plans to reinforce them in the days following such an attack. Conversely the Russians and Chinese dont have troops in NK, or at most training troops, and to think they would send some if the North attacks is a real stretch. Anyways, Yanks would be dieing in the opening minutes of the War and further American involvement would be assured.contedicavour said:China and Russia are vital to preserve the North Korea armed forces' operational status... if both Koreas were hypothetically isolated from the rest of the world, South Korea's industry would be able to resupply their armed forces much better than NK.
Besides, as I was writing in the other thread, NK conscript troops are in a very bad shape (underfed and only basic training), so much so that SK's fear is more of a collapse of the NK regime than of an invasion coming from the north.
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IIRC US troop numbers in SK are down to 22,000-24,000 (One Bde went to Iraq and didn't rotate back). Also, the US has withdrawn from the border. It is useless to get your best units hammered in static positions instead of keeping them in reserve for maneuver battle.Rich said:And yet its yank troops walking the line of the DMZ, with 37,000 more in country along with a large contingent of hardware. Add to that the plans to reinforce them in the days following such an attack. Conversely the Russians and Chinese dont have troops in NK, or at most training troops, and to think they would send some if the North attacks is a real stretch. Anyways, Yanks would be dieing in the opening minutes of the War and further American involvement would be assured.
Not that it would matter. There is no way, in 2006, the North could successfully invade the South. South Korea is in a far stronger position then the North, far stronger then ever. The South has twice the population, can muster 4.5 million reservists, has far, far higher standards of training and morale. The South is several generations ahead in almost every military system in comparison to the North. Add to all this the hundreds of thousands of US forces tasked to come to South Koreas aid and the entire 7'th fleet coming down on the midgets hair piece.......
I think everyone involved has counted the beans. Most of all the North Koreans. Thats why they want nukes. Because they acknowledge their conventional shortfalls.
And the combat value of those US troops is mostly in their MLRS. The infantry & armour add a few percent to the ROK forces in static defence, a bit more in mobile warfare. The MLRS add a larger amount to the artillery, especially if held back out of range of NK tube artillery. But in any case, 90% of the US contribution to S. Koreas defence on day 1 of any war is in the aircraft in Korea & Japan. The ground troops main job is to die (some of them, anyway) so as to guarantee US involvement.Grand Danois said:IIRC US troop numbers in SK are down to 22,000-24,000 (One Bde went to Iraq and didn't rotate back). Also, the US has withdrawn from the border. It is useless to get your best units hammered in static positions instead of keeping them in reserve for maneuver battle.
Amen to that!Rich said:Its really a war nobody needs right now.
I would say that is an improbable scenario.Ozzy Blizzard said:ok guys how do you think it would pan out north and south went at it with no outside intervention? ok weapon and supply shipments from allies but no direct intervention.
Direct support from Russia no, I agree.fylr71 said:Even China and Russia would be extremely unlikely to support NK. At this point Beijing is fed up with NK and Russia would have no reason to support NK.
I think a belligerent NK would not be tolerated by any country, China and Russia included. That said the NK regime is highly erratic, they are in possession of WMD's and are seen to be able to strike most of inhabited and industrial Asia. I think the world would be wise not to instigate and agitate NK. Embargoes and sanctions obviously have not worked, I would argue that they have strengthen the NK resolve for such weapons as a means of defence, since technological superiority is definately not on their side in their region.contedicavour said:Agree that China and SK want a solution that does not involve war.
That's why I'd expect a coup in Pyongyang with the current dictator replaced by a general closer to China. That would help NK evolve along the lines of early 1980s China, ie economic opening but limited political opening.
Let's see.
cheers