Can the US Navy defend itself from Chinese & Russian Military Tech?

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Izzy1

Banned Member
Article from Defensereview.com

Can the U.S. Navy Defend Itself Against Chinese and Russian Military Tech?Posted on Monday, November 20 @ 00:56:12 PST by davidc
by David Crane
david at defensereview.com


By now, everyone and their mother knows that last month, in the Pacific, a Chinese submarine stalked a U.S. aircraft carrier battle group and surfaced within torpedo and missile firing range before being detected. DefenseReview can’t really say we’re surprised by this, especially since U.S. aircraft carrier battle groups are no longer utilizing the Lockheed Martin S-3B Viking Aircraft in the ASW/ASuW (Anti-Submarine Warfare/Anti-Surface Warfare) role. Frankly, it makes one wonder how the U.S. Navy plans to protect our carrier battle groups against modern quiet attack submarines armed with standard torpedoes, anti-ship missiles, and the new breed of supercavitating torpedoes like the Russian Shkval-2 (“Shkval” translates to “Squall”).

Given the current lack of U.S. ASW/ASuW capability, we don’t see how the U.S. Navy can possibly adequately defend itself against these threats. In January of this year (2006), Jane's Defence Weekly reported on a new “revolutionary” anti-ship version of the DF-21 medium-range ballistic missile being developed by the Chinese military, but the situation gets even bleaker when one takes into account the aforementioned high-speed, rocket-propelled guided supercavitating torpedoes like the Russian Shkval-2 ("Shkval" tranlates to "Squall") that's reported to weigh approx. 2700kg (5,923 lbs) and travel at 230-300mph. This supercaviating torpedo tech creates a real problem from a ship defense standpoint, since one has so little time to react to a threat coming in so fast underwater, even if you detect it quickly. At present, the U.S. Navy doesn’t appear to have effective anti-torpedo torpedoes, let alone torpedoes that can intercept ultra-high speed supercavitating torpedos.
Oh, and this just in: according to Aviation Week magazine, the Chinese military is developing a new high-speed cruise missile called Anjian (“Dark Sword”). The new missile was reportedly displayed at Air Show China. From the picture we’ve seen of it, Anjian also looks very stealthy, i.e. it looks like it utilizes stealth technology. If China’s already perfected this item, it would be another weapon that our Navy can’t combat.

Bottom line, our aircraft carriers are vulnerable against the latest Russian and Chinese torpedo and missile tech, and with the current U.S. naval defense philosophy, that situation isn’t likely to change anytime soon. Unfortunately, we no longer have an armored Navy (no more battle ships in service), which means we’re relying on our smaller, less armored high-tech ships like Aegis to protect the fleet--along with our aircraft carriers themselves, which, again, are vulnerable.

What happens if China decides to take back Taiwan? How can we protect it. At present, from a pure military/naval standpoint we probably can’t. The Chinese military can most likely sink our aircraft carriers, along with a lot of our other ships, at will. A group of Battleships would most likely be the most effective tool for defending Taiwan, but we no longer have any in service. The USS Wisconson and USS Iowa battleships are currently mothballed, and the USS Missouri and USS Hawaii are in museums in New Jersey and Philadelphia, respectively. That gives us four battleships to work with. The Wisconson and Iowa could most likely be brought back into service the fastest. Two to four battleships would probably be enough to handle the job, provided we could also defend against the Chinese subs.

Bring back the battleships!

For future anti-submarine warfare (ASW), we might want to consider the following:

1) Bring back the S-3B Viking Aircraft for ASW/ASuW. If the Navy doesn’t want to do that, perhaps they could consider converting the Northrop Grumman E-2C Hawkeye or E-2D Advanced Hawkeye aircraft to the ASW role. Or, they could navalize the A-10/OA-10 Thunderbolt II “Warthog” to create a two-seat “Sea Hog” capable of ASW/ASuW. Any/all of these options would be better than having no carrier-based ASW/ASuW aircraft in service, whatsoever.

2) Focus a lot of effort on developing viable supercavitating torpedoes with anti-torpedo/supercavitating torpedo capability.

3) Produce and field more P-3C Orion (P-3C Update III Anti-Surface Warfare Improvement Program [AIP], specifically) aircraft. Right now, if our numbers are correct, the U.S. military has approx. 108 of these aircraft in service. The P-3C aircraft are land-based, not carrier-based.

The U.S. has never had to go up against modern high-tech, quiet nuclear and hybrid-electric enemy subs in battle, and good thing, ‘cause we’re not prepared for it.


If we get into any kind of military conflict with China, it will most-likely stay conventional, and it will very likely be over the Middle East oil supply. The way China and Russia look at it, why should the United States control that supply? Why not them, instead? If it comes to a military conflict, the Chinese will most likely go for the U.S. military’s central nervous system and heart. They could even end up teaming with Russia to fight us, in which case we’d be in big, big trouble. Both the Russians and Chinese combined militaries will be formidable, and they will play chess, not checkers. We have to be prepared for this, and right now, we simply are not ready.
Some interesting views - especially a navalised A-10...

Personally however, could not agree more with the desperate need to bring back the S-3B Viking or develop something new (CV-22 Osprey-based ASW perhaps?).
 

Grand Danois

Entertainer
I think it is pretty alarmist piece.

The E-2D can alledgedly pick LO cruise missiles up and so can the SPY's on the AEGIS fleet at horizon ranges. Supersonic should pose no problem.

BM's have been an issue for a while - SM-3 and SM-2 block IVA. And don't let them get a decent fix on your skimmers.

The mentioned techs nibbles at the perifery of what is deployed.

To use the Shkvals you need get pretty close with your SSK - thus a Viking equiv has meaning.

My 2 € cents.
 

Galrahn

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
My first problem with the article is the call for battleships. What does a battleship have to do with ASW?

hmm.

But the P-3C situation is actually worse than the author points out, currently many P-3C are not in flight condition, while others are being refit for ground operations or ELINT configurations, both of which remove their ASW role.

The S-3 retirement is something I don't quite understand. The USS Enterprise just returned the other day. I was reading how it forward deployed 1 squadron of F-18s and the EA-6B squadron, and used the S-3s to ferry spares to the FOBs. Without the S-3s, how would the Navy do this mission?

The future CSG will carry 14 or more Sierra's, with an additional 6-12 Romeo's, so the Navy must see some sort of advantage with helicopter based ASW vs fixed wing. That would represent a substancial increase in helicopters per CSG.

I'm less concerned with ballistic missiles than the author, the Navy has been preparing for that threat and will field a long term solution beginning with the CG(X), which means the Navy is about a decade away. The Navy has already fielded 14 of 18 short term solutions for ballistic missile defense, and it should be more than enough to deal with near term advesaries like North Korea.

I think China is still at least a decade away from having ballistic missiles accurate enough to track a warship, because as I understand it, the US and Europeans are still about a decade away from that capability and both the Europeans and Americans own the satellite technology that would be required for it to work.

I think the author would have made a better point had he advocated more Virginia class submarines, because Virginia's and bringing online the new UUV ASW battle network technologies represent better solutions than Battleships or Hawkeye conversions in building better ASW defenses in my opinion.
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Overall the article leaves me cold. I tend to find that anyone who promotes battleships as tier 1 assets due to their armour has been stuck in a bit of a time warp and not realised that the definition and nature of armour(ing) has changed.

armour in its literal sense is now a system of sensors, seducers and respondents - and all of those are then included as part of a larger supporting cohort. Arguing about survivability from strikes due to armour thickness really ignores what 21st century self protection is all about.

as for removal of fixed wing ASW - I'm still not convinced that rotors provide the depth of protective encirclement that "would be nice". Sure the sensors are more efficient, sure the ASW weapons are smarter (A Mk50 or MK48-ADCAP-CBASS has more onboard processing than some warships of 10 years ago) and sure the speed of processing is a whole lot better - but IMV thats more than counter balanced by the fact that the Task Force footprint has shrunk, the degree of shrinkage means greater load and responsibility on less elements, and that the "ring of confidence" is concentrically smaller with the removal of fixed wing.

There's an even greater need to be aggressive and extend the ring. Rotors can't do it to the same depth of field and certainly aren't as competent as radar or sensor pickets. Sensor capability is closely linked to platform mass and onboard power availability. Fixed wings have an immediate advantage in that respect. We've move on from the old days of chucking up a SeaKing with SearchWater and looking and waiting for sea skimmers.

I'm also unconvinced about the chatter on Chinese BM's in an anti-shipping role. China does not have any meaningful military or quasi military satellite constellation. If she wanted to get persistent global coverage and allow for 10% redundancy across all time slots, then she would need a preferable squadron of 33+ satellites. The reality is that she has nowhere near that number - she doesn't even have enough to challenge a Glonass constellation in coverage and/or mission. So for china to have regional - let alone global constellation redundant viewing will mean launching at least 3 satellites per year for the next 10 years - and even then she will only have parity with the russians and less than 20% footprint against all US satellite assets.

At a satellite command and control level, the US can hit china any time, anywhere and anyplace with proper redundancy. In asset terms, China won't be able to do that at a global level for another 10 years at least.

So for me, the ballistic missile arguments are just good old journalistic fairy stories overstating a threat that cannot be supported with real evidence.

Can China get there? Yes. Is (ASBM) a real meaningful current and coherent threat? No.
 

Izzy1

Banned Member
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
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I too am a little confused by the Author's call for reactivating the Battleships, especially in relation to his claim that they represent "the most effective tool for defending Taiwan". I'm sure the PLAN would be far more concerned by US Navy SSNs than a couple of BBs.
 

Grand Danois

Entertainer
I noticed the BB's, but thought the author didn't mean it seriously...

It isn't necessary with a global constellation of sats, and I would wager a handful of SAR sats could cover much of the PRC need. Though I would question the survivability of such PRC assets in case of a shooting war ie the PRC won't get a fix on any CBG's that way. IIRC the PRC has recently put a SAR sat up for ocean surveillance.

Guided BM's are also some time away, but IIRC a pot shot system is being fielded in the near term. I wonder if really they think the can use "passive radar" for detection and tracking!!!

Bottom line. CM's, even the LO ones, are accounted for and when BM's become an issue, a comprehensive response will be in place.

That leaves the ASW aspect. The recent incident is explained as ASW for the CBG being passive as it was not the purpose of the exercise. Regardless of the truth in this, I certainly don't get the impression the the USN are operating with Cold War vigilance towards the PLAN. Especially as such a thing does not exist between the US and the PRC.

However if things turn sour, I would question that any PLAN sub could leave the littorals without being tracked one way or the other. But then again, that is the job of SSN's and fixed wing aircraft - including the absent organic ASW aircraft on the CBG.

I think ASW is an issue. Always is. :D

Lastly, if a submarine is close enough to use a Shkval on a surface target, then why not use a more efficent conventional torpedo? It doesn't make sense.
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
It isn't necessary with a global constellation of sats, and I would wager a handful of SAR sats could cover much of the PRC need. Though I would question the survivability of such PRC assets in case of a shooting war ie the PRC won't get a fix on any CBG's that way. IIRC the PRC has recently put a SAR sat up for ocean surveillance.
If china wants to be a world power -and by association a super power, then the minimum number of satellites she needs to have total coverage (with almost no redundancy) is 11 satellites. If she wants overlap and redundancy and persistence, then she needs in excess of 30.
She doesn't have enough for constant guard work even over her notional areas of protection.

That leaves the ASW aspect. The recent incident is explained as ASW for the CBG being passive as it was not the purpose of the exercise. Regardless of the truth in this, I certainly don't get the impression the the USN are operating with Cold War vigilance towards the PLAN. Especially as such a thing does not exist between the US and the PRC.
I think thats one of the points missed. Although its nice to assume that eternal vigilance reigns supreme - the reality is that china is not regarded as a latent threat - if she was then Task Force size and posture would change and be more reflective of the old STANAVFORLANT type days.

However if things turn sour, I would question that any PLAN sub could leave the littorals without being tracked one way or the other. But then again, that is the job of SSN's and fixed wing aircraft - including the absent organic ASW aircraft on the CBG.

I think ASW is an issue. Always is. :D
The USN never ever talks about what their subs can do - the only inkling about what they were capable of actually came from the Russians post 1989. After that there were more frequent releases of very compartmentalised stories such as Parche. You only have to look at their own journals and see how little is dicussed. Geez, whenever my copy from the NSL rolls up all it ever has are a WW2 sub stories. Contemp sub stories are a no-no.


Lastly, if a submarine is close enough to use a Shkval on a surface target, then why not use a more efficent conventional torpedo? It doesn't make sense.
Speed=noise. Noise kills. ;) A sub has better chance of survival after the shoot if they use a conventional. A Skval is almost a self administered death warrant. All navies like to keep their good drivers alive.

hail mary shots don't fulfill that requirement.
 

Grand Danois

Entertainer
If china wants to be a world power -and by association a super power, then the minimum number of satellites she needs to have total coverage (with almost no redundancy) is 11 satellites. If she wants overlap and redundancy and persistence, then she needs in excess of 30.
She doesn't have enough for constant guard work even over her notional areas of protection.
I'm not thinking global coverage. In order to search the Sth China Sea etc., you only need to have a low number of sats, and in search mode only it is possible to cover large area, considering the resolution required. But then again, not very survivable.

Speed=noise. Noise kills. ;) A sub has better chance of survival after the shoot if they use a conventional. A Skval is almost a self administered death warrant. All navies like to keep their good drivers alive.

hail mary shots don't fulfill that requirement.
My views on the utility of the Shkval is already available elsewhere on DT. :D
 

icelord

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Battleships, ahh, the Cold War is alive i tell you, ALIVE!!!!]
Quick we need ships bigger then a battleship, we will call it, the mother of the dreadnought!
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
I'm not thinking global coverage. In order to search the Sth China Sea etc., you only need to have a low number of sats, and in search mode only it is possible to cover large area, considering the resolution required. But then again, not very survivable.
Lets assume that the US and China have a complete brain fart and decide to go to war.

The US can swap out nuclear warheads for inert rounds (as a form of symbolism) and launch from literally anywhere in the world. 6-30 minutes time on target from a launch vehicle that china does not have the capacity to shadow let alone persistently trail.

Of course this assumes that lunatics are in power in both countries - but chinas limited sensing and surveillance capability (and literally for the next 10 years - and assuming that the US is politically neutered and goes into neutral or negative build cycles) means that she's still a blue water navy only in her back yard. That to me seems like a maxi version of the River Plate.

Sensors are king. Coverage is king. Projection and persistence is king.

A regional constellation has its limitations - and its far easier to knock a time slot hole into a small satellite race track than knock a hole into a constellation. (redundancy is king)

Bottom line - theres a need to be respectful about the potential for ASBM - but as a latent and immediate threat? - I remain unconvinced.
 

Grand Danois

Entertainer
I think I was more modest with my scenario - the ASBM risk to a CVN. ;)

Anyhow. You're right re redundancy. But it really doesn't matter if the constellation is global or regional as it will only be a operational system under peacetime conditions.

Different perspective - same conclusion.
 

ever4244

New Member
Officially, china is developing her own "GPS"----Charles's Wain a total around 36 satelite . now we have about 6 location satelite mainly dedicate to east Asia (focus on taiwan province--If anyone has doubt please refer to your Ministry of Foreign Affairs Now the 6 satelite can provide a accuracy within 50m, but when the web finished, it will reduce to 5m. the basic theory of Wain is same with GPS, but you have to give signal to satelite instead of receiveing it. after processing you data, satelite will work out your location and give back to you.So these satelite can not be introduced to civil use for limit service bandwidth.The present 6 satelite follow such principle, however , the next 30 may be improved in the future.Plus , the Galilei programme which we are participate in can also provide some supplement before the Wain completed.
 
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ever4244

New Member
Battleship?heavy armor? navy version A-10?, Wow, if US dedicate to those, it s really a good new to his rival-----we don t want the laurel of "US s rival" suppose it give to Russia, then what good does those heavy stuff against supersonic antiship missile. I d prefer not to be detected by using stealth-tech on relatively small vessel.
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Officially, china is developing her own "GPS"----Charles's Wain a total around 36 satelite . now we have about 6 location satelite mainly dedicate to east Asia (focus on taiwan province--If anyone has doubt please refer to your the Ministry of Foreign AffairsNow the 6 satelite can provide a accuracy within 50m, but when the web finished, it will reduce to 5m. the basic theory of Wain is same with GPS, but you have to give signal to satelite instead of receiveing it. after processing you data, satelite will work out your location and give back to you.So these satelite can not be introduced to civil use for limit service bandwidth.The present 6 satelite follow such principle, however , the next 30 may be improved in the future.Plus , the Galilei programme which we are participate in can also provide some supplement before the Wain completed.
Actually, its up to you to provide credible links if you are going to imply that its open source: "If anyone has doubt please refer to your the Ministry of Foreign Affairs"

I'm not sure where you got your info on how satellite tracking works - but it is nonsensical.

Links and source pls to validate your claims re the build rate of the constellation as it challenges everything known to date.

and are you saying that China will use galileo for military purposes when that is in direct contravention of the Groups principles? ;)
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Battleship?heavy armor? navy version A-10?, Wow, if US dedicate to those, it s really a good new to his rival-----we don t want the laurel of "US s rival" suppose it give to Russia, then what good does those heavy stuff against supersonic antiship missile. I d prefer not to be detected by using stealth-tech on relatively small vessel.
In actual fact a larger warship like the old Missouris are far more likely to survive a supersonic cruise missile attack "on contact" than any other vessel.

and small stealth ships are not the answer - look how well the Visbys faired in their US trials.

The USN already has the 4 most powerful naval vessels in the world - and a ballistic missile is totally useless against them.

People who focus on sinking aircraft carriers are missing the big picture by a golden mile.....
 

McZosch

New Member
USS Wisconson and USS Iowa battleships are currently mothballed, and the USS Missouri and USS Hawaii are in museums in New Jersey and Philadelphia,
USS Hawaii? Isn't it USS New Jersey? And hell, class name is IOWA, not MISSOURI.

Speed=noise. Noise kills. A sub has better chance of survival after the shoot if they use a conventional. A Skval is almost a self administered death warrant. All navies like to keep their good drivers alive.
I think, PLAN would love to have a sub sunk in exchange for one flattop scratched. Remember that PRC is still a totalitarian regime.



My 2cents:
Shval is to my knowledge unguided. It is also quite bulky. To use such weapon, a sub has to be very quiet and quite large. If it is shooting the Shval, it WAS quiet. Adding guidance is nearly impossible, since supercavitation works only because of a membrane surrounding the top of the projectile. Maybe the only ship ever sunk by a Shval is the Kursk.

On the other hand, ASW is getting a problem. All Spruances are gone, OHPs are obsolete in the short-term. The Burkes have acommodation for helicopters since Flight II and therefore have a credible ASW-capability. But are there enough Burkes for an all-aspect ASW-umbrella? Will DD(X) fill that gap, if ever built?

I think the USN is gambling with their AShW- and ASW-capabilities. Sinking the Spruances is a waste of valuable ships. Maybe the USN needs some "shortages" and some "threats" to get the 300-ship-navy funded. This gamble may not pay off, for the new congress may cut the defence-budget.

What's more frustrating:
Same people who are deciding on USN-strategy are inventing such misnomers as "DDG-1000 Zumwalt" or "SSN-21 Seawolf". If they are failing with taking her own hull-number-conventions serious, what should we think about their strategy?

Countermeasures:
- more Virginia SSNs more quickly
- a dedicated ASW-module-set for the LCS
- a last-ditch torpedo defense-system (which should already be in development for DD(X))
- replacement of S-3 and SH-60 on the carriers with an V-22 derivate; this would make it possible to engage enemy subs as far away from the battlegroup as possible; also, the LHDs could act as ASW-carriers.
- the B-2 should be enabled to carry Harpoons
- a Harpoon follow-on is also in urgent need

About the PLAN:
Those guys have only a handful of capable surface ships and subs (of which most are slow and not capable of handling Shkvals). The rest is late-60s tech.
 

bd popeye

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
The S-3 retirement is something I don't quite understand. The USS Enterprise just returned the other day. I was reading how it forward deployed 1 squadron of F-18s and the EA-6B squadron, and used the S-3s to ferry spares to the FOBs. Without the S-3s, how would the Navy do this mission?
The USN took the ASW mission away from the S-3 some years ago. In fact the name of the squadrons were changed from Anti-submarine squadrons to Sea Control squadron. The history of VS-21 may explain:

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/agency/navy/vs-21.htm

The air wing on the Enterprise:
The squadrons of CVW-1 include the “Sidewinders” of Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 86, the “Checkmates” of VFA-211, the “Knighthawks” of VFA-136, the “Thunderbolts” of Marine Strike Fighter Squadron (VMFA) 251, the “Screwtops” of Airborne Early Warning Squadron (VAW) 123, the “Rooks” of Tactical Electronic Warfare Squadron (VAQ) 137, the “Maulers” of Sea Control Squadron (VS) 32, the “Rawhides” of Carrier Logistics Support (VRC) 40, and the “Dragonslayers” of Helicopter Anti-Submarine Squadron (HS) 11.

That's about 70 aircraft.

The USN has been and will continue to use C-2 Greyhounds for logistical suppourt. S-3 have long been used as COD's on CV's. Along with C-2's.
The USN has two large C-2 squadrons VRC-30 and VRC-40. Both deploy 2 aircraft detatchments on CV's.
 

IraqiResistance

New Member
You are asking the wrong question

"Can the US Navy defend itself from Chinese & Russian Military Tech?"

The title of this article like most of the propaganda pieces on this site spindoctors away the important issue, which is America and its military are an aggressive threat.

You aren't "defending" yourself from anything. After all, this is the same American Empire that has, in the past few years, waged aggressive wars and/or attacks against Iraq, Afghanistan, Yugoslavia, Somaila, etc...

More recently, America and its Navy have been menacing Iran, with a massive naval show of force in the Persian Gulf consisting of several American battle groups and aircraft carriers.

American Gunboat "diplomacy" is alive and well.

But in the upside reality of these American patriots (and military stormtroopers), it's the virtuous American Empire that needs to "defend" itself. LoL.

You should yourself a better question, can Iran defend itself from the American military menace?

We might soon find out, when America launches its 3rd "pre-emptive" aggression since 9/11. Then it will be time for some Americans to get some "Sunburn."
 

IraqiResistance

New Member
"If we get into any kind of military conflict with China, it will most-likely stay conventional, and it will very likely be over the Middle East oil supply. The way China and Russia look at it, why should the United States control that supply? Why not them, instead? If it comes to a military conflict, the Chinese will most likely go for the U.S. military’s central nervous system and heart. They could even end up teaming with Russia to fight us, in which case we’d be in big, big trouble. Both the Russians and Chinese combined militaries will be formidable, and they will play chess, not checkers. We have to be prepared for this, and right now, we simply are not ready."

Let me translate this from American Doublespeak, as it inadverently reveals the true agenda of the USA and its military:

America must keep its iron grip on global energy resources in order to maintain what its own ideologues call "benevolent global American hegemony."

Control the oil supply of any nation that represents a threat to this American world order and you control that nation itself. The American military must be prepared to bring all countries to heel--China and Russia in particular....

But this America agenda should be obvious.

What do you think America's invasion of Iraq was really about, or the USA's bogus Global War on Terror (tm)? Finding mythical Iraqi WMDs? Fightin' terrarists? Revenge for the American Reichstag Fire of 9-11 and hunting down "former" CIA asset USAma Bin Laden dead or alive? Or funniest of them all, spreading freedom and freedom?

Only the Good Americans believe those lies.
 

webmaster

Troll Hunter
Staff member
The title of this article like most of the propaganda pieces on this site spindoctors away the important issue
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