The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Do you mind providing the links to the UN and Red Cross statements that Russia prevented the investigation? This is quite significant since Russia is claiming that they attempted to involve both the Red Cross and the UN in the investigation.

There is scant evidence of Russian mistreatment of POWs in this conflict. And granted, my basic assumption is that bad things are happening. But in this case both sides have that situation currently and that history. Russia is not the Soviet Union, and neither is Ukraine, but both come from that past. The SBU is also a successor to the KGB. I'm also not sure I see a connection between mistreatment of POWs in general and POW torture for intelligence reasons, and this missile strike.

The rebels have historically done much worse then Russia. It's commonly understood in circles knowledgeable about the LDNR that in the '14-'15 wars the rebels routinely didn't take prisoners from Ukrainian volunteer formations. Executing 3 western citizen POWs as "mercenaries", or rather threatening to do so as a political maneuver to try and put western countries in the uncomfortable position of either negotiating with the rebels directly for their release, or letting them die through inaction, is significantly less heinous then what some rebel unit were doing '14. But again I'm not sure what this has to do with the current strike.

Last but not least, to quote someone... what makes a country a country is if other countries think that country is a country. There was a time when internationally the United States wasn't recognized as a legal independent country. And considering the fate of the LDNR is almost certainly Russian annexation, their legitimacy as nation-states is mostly irrelevant. I would disregard the court procedure entirely as symbolic nonsense and see this threat for what it is; a political maneuver. Either western countries have to negotiate with the rebels directly and publicly, giving Russia a major propaganda win and quite plausibly (though far from certainly) securing the release of their citizens. Or they do nothing, and the LDNR presents this as the execution of western war criminals for a different kind of domestic propaganda win.
This was from seven days ago Red Cross renews appeal to visit site of Ukrainian POW attack and the attack on the prison was on the 29th.

On 30/7/22 this was published by RT:
The Russian Defense Ministry announced on Sunday that it had officially invited independent experts from the UN and the Red Cross to investigate the shelling of a detention center in the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR). The bombing on Friday killed 50 prisoners, and wounded dozens more.

“In the interest of conducting an objective investigation of the strike on the detention center in Yelenovka, which led to the deaths of many Ukrainian prisoners of war, the Russian Federation has officially invited experts from the UN and the International Red Cross Committee,” the ministry said.


As of the 3rd August 2022 (4 days ago):
As of yet, we have not been granted access to the PoWs affected by the attack nor do we have security guarantees to carry out this visit. Our offer to donate supplies remains unanswered.
We will keep requesting access to POWs who are or were held in Olenivka, and any other sites where PoWs are held, guided by our humanitarian commitment and our mandate under the Geneva Conventions.
I know which one I believe and it isn't the Russian version.
 

Kutschera

New Member
@Feanor I have strong doubts about any Russian claims WRT the attack against the Yelenovka POW facility holding Ukrainian POWs. There have been claims by both the UN and the Red Cross that they have been prevented by Russian forces from making any enquiries on the ground about the attack.

I also have been ignoring Ukrainian claims as well WRT to a deliberate Russian attack on the facility because it is at present a he said she said argument. However I will say this, Russia has a long history of mistreatment, torture and illegal killing of POWs that it has captured and that, plus it labelling the Azov Battalion as a terrorist organisation doesn't help its cause.

Furthermore, the separatist groups planned execution of three non Ukrainian POWs fighting as members of the Ukrainian military in Ukrainian uniform, carrying Ukrainian military ID in their correct names, is a war crime, regardless of what the separatists claim. Also their court is not a legal court anyway because they aren't recognised as a legal independent country.
Qui bono?
A prison is attacked. It is located in Russian-controlled territory. Ukrainian prisoners of war were housed there. The stay was known to the Ukrainian authorities, it was agreed upon at the surrender in Mariupol.

What would the Russians have to gain?
An execution makes no sense to me. This could have been done quietly and inconspicuously. Killing their own people (guards) also makes no sense. The prisoners also represent a propaganda asset, now they cannot testify in court. And just to be able to accuse the Ukrainians of something? The Russians know they have no influence on the press in the "West".

What would the Ukrainians have to gain?
The prisoners definitely can't say anything now. Their own troops now know that they are not "safe" even after a surrender. Since the object was not within the grasp of the Ukrainian authorities, a range attack would be the only option. Ukraine has the means to do so, the Russians claim HIMARS missiles were used. The hit pattern suggests a precision attack.
And just to be able to accuse the Russians of something? The Ukrainians know they don't have to prove accusations.

But of course I did not see who fired.

The following links are from a website (Moon of Alabama) run by a former NVA officer. The third link looks at the subject of the commentary, the first two at the general current situation.




 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
This was from seven days ago Red Cross renews appeal to visit site of Ukrainian POW attack and the attack on the prison was on the 29th.

On 30/7/22 this was published by RT:
The Russian Defense Ministry announced on Sunday that it had officially invited independent experts from the UN and the Red Cross to investigate the shelling of a detention center in the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR). The bombing on Friday killed 50 prisoners, and wounded dozens more.

“In the interest of conducting an objective investigation of the strike on the detention center in Yelenovka, which led to the deaths of many Ukrainian prisoners of war, the Russian Federation has officially invited experts from the UN and the International Red Cross Committee,” the ministry said.


As of the 3rd August 2022 (4 days ago):
As of yet, we have not been granted access to the PoWs affected by the attack nor do we have security guarantees to carry out this visit. Our offer to donate supplies remains unanswered.
We will keep requesting access to POWs who are or were held in Olenivka, and any other sites where PoWs are held, guided by our humanitarian commitment and our mandate under the Geneva Conventions.
I know which one I believe and it isn't the Russian version.
Thank you for the details. On the one hand it makes no sense for Russia to do this. On the other hand, if they're telling the truth, you'd think they'd be tripping over their feet to get UN and Red Cross out there.

About the same that they would have to gain by castrating a UKR POW and recording and broadcasting it.
Are you sure this is real? Because I have my doubts.

Qui bono?
A prison is attacked. It is located in Russian-controlled territory. Ukrainian prisoners of war were housed there. The stay was known to the Ukrainian authorities, it was agreed upon at the surrender in Mariupol.

What would the Russians have to gain?
An execution makes no sense to me. This could have been done quietly and inconspicuously. Killing their own people (guards) also makes no sense. The prisoners also represent a propaganda asset, now they cannot testify in court. And just to be able to accuse the Ukrainians of something? The Russians know they have no influence on the press in the "West".

What would the Ukrainians have to gain?
The prisoners definitely can't say anything now. Their own troops now know that they are not "safe" even after a surrender. Since the object was not within the grasp of the Ukrainian authorities, a range attack would be the only option. Ukraine has the means to do so, the Russians claim HIMARS missiles were used. The hit pattern suggests a precision attack.
And just to be able to accuse the Russians of something? The Ukrainians know they don't have to prove accusations.

But of course I did not see who fired.

The following links are from a website (Moon of Alabama) run by a former NVA officer. The third link looks at the subject of the commentary, the first two at the general current situation.




This argument makes sense. However... why not immediately grant access, expedited in every way possible, to international investigators? You could argue that the Red Cross and UN are biased in favor of the west (nevermind that Russia isn't making this argument). Ok... but then why invite them at all? It smells suspicious.
 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Explosions in Odessa, presumably a Russian strike.


Russian artillery firing towards Nikolaev.


Russian strikes on Nikolaev.


Artillery exchanges continue on the Nikolaev-Kherson axis.


An explosion and a fire have been reported in Skadovsk. Presumably a Ukrainian strike.


There are reports that a btln commander from the reconstituted 36th MarBde died in Nikolaev.


Russia is repairing the Antonov bridge in Kherson.


Russian security forces have found local resistance fighters in Kherson with a stash of weapons. They were found hiding 7 cases of HMG ammo, 3 RPG-7 shots, 60 pieces of explosives, a machinegune, a Harris radio, and other equipment.


The first grain vessel has left Odessa.


Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

An explosion has been reported at an airfield near Melitopol'. The location was the base for a number of Ukrainian Il-76s prior to the war, and at least one generally intact aircraft was still there.


An unexploded Brimston missile in Zaporozhye area.


Kharkov-Sumy.

Ukrainian Buk firing on a Russian UAV in Sumy.


Russian strikes in Kharkov.


A Ukrainian munitions facility from the 59th Bde was allegedly taken out by Russian forces near Shevchenkovo, Kharkov region.


Ukrainian munitions found by Russian security forces raiding homes in Kharkov region.


Izyum Salient.


Ukrainian Varta armored car drowned in Severskiy Donets river.


LDNR Front.

Russian strikes on Artemovsk/Bakhmut continue.


Battle damage in Artemovsk/Bakhmut. It's not clear if the town has been evacuated.


A Ukrainian soldier or fighter in Artemovsk/Bakhmut claims that many locals are awaiting Russian forces and sympathize with Russia.


Another Ukrainian soldier or fighter complains that in other areas locals supported the Ukrainian military and reported Russian positions, but in Artemovsk the locals are all "collaborators". I think it's significant to understand that attitudes across Ukraine continue to differ even as Russia has invaded the country.


Reportedly Russian forces are on the outskirts of Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


DNR 100th Brigade artillery strikes.


Russian strikes on Avdeevka, across from Yasinovataya.


DNR tank btln Sever (North) advancing on Peski.


DNR 11th Regiment advancing on Peski, note they appear to have T-72B3 mod'16s.


Ukrainian POWs taken in Peski. The village is currently mostly under Russian and rebel control with reports of Ukrainian forces still holding the western outskirts.


LNR forces advancing on Kodema village.


A pair of destroyed 2S1s in Lisichansk, allegedly Ukrainian.


A rebel tank got stuck and was left overnight. Ukrainian forces apparently tried to take it out with artillery fire, but failed.


Rebel infantry in the fields near Soledar.


LNR tank btln August.


The scarce Snezhinka rocket system in DNR hands. It's apparently still operational.


A Yugoslav M-80 RPG captured from Ukraine, now in rebel hands.


Footage of the road from Severodonetsk to Berestovoe.


Mineclearing operations continue in Donetsk.


Munitions and UXO keep being found in Severodonetsk.


Russian medical personnel going to Mariupol' on rotation. The city's own medical capabilities remain inadequate.


Misc.

Ukrainian forces are apparently using improvised loitering munitions based on quadcopters.


Allegedly a destroyed Ukrainian M-777. Location and context unclear.


A Ukrainian Humvee ambulance destroyed. Location, context, and date unclear.


Apparently Ukrainian recon vehicle hit a land mine, all occupants reportedly KIA.


Captured AT-105, location and context unclear.


Russian helo-based tactical teams are hunting for Ukrainian infiltrators, location unclear.


Apparently a Ukrainian soldier complains about the PzH-2000 falling apart in Ukrainian hands, due to being unsuited for the intensity of use.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Nothing is for sure anymore. However, Bellingcat put a large amount of effort looking into this:

Thank you for the details. Good work as always by bellingcat, and quite convincing. It also offers some insight into both the motivation (alleged rape of a girl) and the savage conduct - it's a Chechen irregular. Personally I'm now convinced of the authenticity of the footage.
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
Thank you for the details. On the one hand it makes no sense for Russia to do this. On the other hand, if they're telling the truth, you'd think they'd be tripping over their feet to get UN and Red Cross out there.



Are you sure this is real? Because I have my doubts.



This argument makes sense. However... why not immediately grant access, expedited in every way possible, to international investigators? You could argue that the Red Cross and UN are biased in favor of the west (nevermind that Russia isn't making this argument). Ok... but then why invite them at all? It smells suspicious.
There some claims from former prisoners and family members that prisoners were emaciated from little food and poor conditions in that prison is there information on Red Cross access to any prisoners?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Explosions near Chernobaevka, Novaya Kahovka and Berislav, Kherson region. Presumably Ukrainian strikes.


Russian Grad fires somewhere between Nikolaev and Krivoy Rog.


Russian VDV ATGM team responding to a sighting of Ukrainian armor. What's interesting is that they stage in one area, in dug in positions, but not on the front line, and they respond to sightings of Ukrainian armor where apparently positions are also available. This suggests a relatively low troop density.


Russian pontoon ferry moving civilians across the Dnepr, next to the Antonov bridge.


Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

Russian strikes on Ukrainian positions near Zaporozhye.


The North.

Ukrainian UAV training near Kiev.


Kharkov-Sumy.

Russian strikes in Kharkov.


Battle damage from a Russian strike in Kharkov.


Ukrainian M-777 positions, Kharkov region.


LDNR Front.

Apparently a Ukrainian truck towing a D-20 getting hit, near Avdeevka.


DNR forces in a firefight near Avdeevka.


Battle damage from a Russian strike on Artemovsk, allegedly hitting a Ukrainian munition storage. Claimed are 5 KIA and 3 WIA, with 10 people still missing in the rubble.


A rebel UAZ jeep hits an anti-personnel mine near recently taken Novoluganskoe village.


DNR 1st Bde apparently took the Butovskaya mineshaft west of Donestk.


A strike on a alleged Ukrainian LP/OP near Peski.


Rebel UAV team operating in Peski.


Unconfirmed reports that Travnoe, a village west of Novoluganskoe, has fallen to rebel forces.


It appears Peski have fallen.


Equipment captured near Seversk by Russian forces.


An interview with a rebel commander from the LNR 4th Bde, call sign Jafar. He discusses the benefits of the Mavic 3 quadcopter.


The West.

Russian strike in L'vov region.


According to Ukrainian sources, 8 missiles were launched out of the Caspian sea, 7 were shot down, the 8th hit a SAM.


Misc.

Allegedly Russian Ka-52 strike on Ukrainian vehicles. Location and context unclear.


Russian loitering munition destroys a Ukrainian pontoon bridge, location unclear.


Ukrainian HIMARS launch, location and context unclear.


Ukrainian Buk-M1 destroyed, location and context unclear. Recently Ukrainian Buks were sighted in the Artemovsk/Bakhmut area, and Sumy region.


Ukraine is remote mining sections of the front line.


Russian Tornado-U armored trucks in Ukraine.


A Russian sniper in Ukraine using a captured sniper rifle. This raises questions. Are better rifles not available? Or is this just a brag?


Captured Barret .50 cal sniper rifle. Location and context unclear.


NATO/EU.

Ukraine has received 4 more HIMARS MLRS.


And Mars II from Germany.


Reportedly Span has changed their mind about supplying Leo-2s to Ukraine due to their poor condition.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
There some claims from former prisoners and family members that prisoners were emaciated from little food and poor conditions in that prison is there information on Red Cross access to any prisoners?
I'm not aware of it.
 

Kutschera

New Member
About the same that they would have to gain by castrating a UKR POW and recording and broadcasting it.

Moon of Alabama: In my own experience that site is heavily biased, but you should make your own determination.
Torturing and executing prisoners (via video on the internet) is definitely counterproductive to one's reputation, not to mention one's conscience.

(The last 8 years in Ukraine have been quite violent. For example, there was a police battalion "Tornado" whose actions speak for themselves. Former members were released from prison.
Facts about the case:
Tornado unit member "Modjahed" Danil Lyashuk
)

As for the case you mentioned, I only know that it happened. Do you have information that clearly proves Russian responsibility? (I am particularly interested in the identity of the victim. Once this is clarified, it will also be clear whether it was a Russian or a Ukrainian, a soldier or a civilian...).
ven without further facts, I think it is possible that the Russian side bears responsibility for this on an individual basis, but I do not believe in a background with orders. Regarding the Ukrainians, I think more is possible. If any information has already been posted on the forum in this regard, I apologise.

But firing missiles at a prison on their own territory to kill prisoners of war (valuable to the Russians) and their own guards (only the area of Ukrainian prisoners of war in the prison was hit) and having to care for about 70 wounded prisoners only raises the question of guilt "from a political point of view" in my eyes.

I thank you for your warning about the credibility of facts using the Moon of Alabama website as an example.
On the other hand, it is based on sources recognised "in the West", which are also linked. Of course, the operator also has his own opinion.

In my mother tongue (with internet use) I have about 1 medium available that meets my standards.
The rest can only be used "passively", like: "Why should I have exactly this opinion on this topic? Shouldn't the facts themselves lead to this? Oh yes, where are the facts anyway?"
"In the German media" the Ukrainians have not yet committed a single crime. Or better, if Ukrainians were responsible, it's "Russians and Ukrainians accuse each other!"
(Apart from the prison story, it is also currently in the news that the Russians are firing missiles etc. on a daily basis at the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant, which they control. I definitely have more faith in the Russian leadership as far as common sense is concerned than I do in what are called the people's representatives in Germany. )

Personally, I could only be born because my grandfather was protected by Russian peasant women during the Second World War. He had been shot by a low-flying plane, and the peasant women stood around him and covered him with their bodies. He was in the village at the time to have bread baked for his unit.
Since he was a farmer himself, he left some of the flour for the locals to bake the bread.
My grandfather survived the whole war (Poland, France....), was then captured by the Americans and had to work for a French farmer until he could escape home.
His conclusion was: "With the Russians you starved because they didn't have enough themselves, with the Americans you starved although they had more than enough."
 
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vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
Torturing and executing prisoners (via video on the internet) is definitely counterproductive to one's reputation, not to mention one's conscience.

As for the case you mentioned, I only know that it happened. Do you have information that clearly proves Russian responsibility? (I am particularly interested in the identity of the victim. Once this is clarified, it will also be clear whether it was a Russian or a Ukrainian, a soldier or a civilian...).
Even without such evidence, I think Russian authorship is more possible than an individual act without a command background. Regarding the Ukrainians, I think more is possible. If any information has already been posted on the forum in this regard, I apologise.
The best proof anyone can offer is the investigation by Bellingcat:

 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Sweden will train Ukranian soldiers in the UK: Sweden to train Ukrainian soldiers in UK - Government.se

Canada will also start training soldiers in the UK: Canada to join British-led mission to train Ukrainian recruits | CBC News

Finland send 20 trainers: Finland to send instructors to Britain to train Ukrainian military (ukrinform.net)

The latest package of 1billion USD includes 75,000 155mm, HIMARS ammo, munitions for NASAMS, and 1,000 Javelins amongst other things: Jeff Seldin on Twitter: "NEW: US announces $1 billion in security assistance to #Ukraine Includes ammo for #HIMARS, artillery ammo, mortar systems 7 rounds, #NASAMS munitions, 1,000 #Javelins, etc. https://t.co/mQ8zbRWwjm" / Twitter

In addition, the US has confirmed that anti-radiation missiles capable of being fired from Ukrainian aircraft have already been delivered: Anti-Radiation Missiles Sent To Ukraine, U.S. Confirms | The Drive

All great news, "the West" is still providing massive support to Ukraine.
 
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STURM

Well-Known Member
All great news, "the West" is still providing massive support to Ukraine.
That's great but we're barely five months into the conflict and despite the expectation or hope; the Russians are maintaining the effort. If this drags on indefinitely and there is a danger of the West being drawn into conflict with Russia: will the West still maintain this level of support? Will the Western public start losing interest?
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
That's great but we're barely five months into the conflict and despite the expectation or hope; the Russians are maintaining the effort. If this drags on indefinitely and there is a danger of the West being drawn into conflict with Russia: will the West still maintain this level of support? Will the Western public start losing interest?
Most analysts expected already several months ago that this conflict will continue for some time, so not sure what you refer to when you say "despite the expectation."

If this drags on "indefinitely": will Russia maintain it's commitment given the enormous costs to Russia economically, in reduced military capabilities, as well as in lives lost and injuries? Ukraine fights for their lives, Russian soldiers fight for money and/or the hopeless dream of a lost empire.

Rest assured that some countries can and will support Ukraine "indefinitely" even if some countries should decide to reduce their level of support in the future. If/when Western level of support start dropping, Ukraine will have to change their strategy and tactics, but no doubt they will keep fighting. Russia cannot "win" this war, even if they were to occupy the whole of Ukraine. Insurgents will make sure of that.
 

koxinga

Well-Known Member
It seems Ukraine has attacked a Russian airfield in Crimea:

What weapons does Ukraine currently have with that kind of range?
Identified as Saki airfield, Novofedorivka, Crimea. TASS has confirmed it as well, but claims accidental munition denotation.

Within range of HIMARS w/ATACAMS.


 

STURM

Well-Known Member
so not sure what you refer to when you say "despite the expectation."
The expectation or hope that Russia is on its last legs; that stiff Ukrainian resistance; heavy Russian casualties; sanctions and Western support will eventually result in Russia abandoning its effort.

Russia cannot "win" this war, even if they were to occupy the whole of Ukraine. Insurgents will make sure of that
Fine but that doesn't necessarily mean that the Ukrainians will win it or that their opponent will lose. It may drag on indefinitely.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
The expectation or hope that Russia is on its last legs; that stiff Ukrainian resistance; heavy Russian casualties; sanctions and Western support will eventually result in Russia abandoning its effort.
You also said "after 5 months" -- I merely pointed out that few (if any) analysts expected this to end so quickly.
Fine but that doesn't necessarily mean that the Ukrainians will win it or that their opponent will lose. It may drag on indefinitely.
It may, but it is rather unlikely to drag on "indefinitely". You have to look at the motivation of Russians. They are not motivated by an existential fight. They are not motivated by religion or ideology. As I pointed out, for some (probably very few) it's basically the dream of a lost empire. For some it's money. Remove/reduce the amount of money and there is not much left to fight for.

Anyway, what many (including Russia) did not expect before the war started, was the level of Western commitment we have seen so far. So even if all support stops tomorrow (not going to happen) Western support has already hugely exceeded pre-war expectations. Furthermore, Russia's losses of both equipment and personnel in the first 5 months also massively exceeded pre-war estimates of analysts. Nothing can change these facts. As for the future, we just have to wait and see.
 
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