United States Defense Thread

An Interpreter article on the road that the US has to travel in the Asia Pacific in order to restore the American prestige and and honour that it held prior to Trump within the region. That could be a very difficult journey, especially if there are domestic crises at home.

ngatimozart said:

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Prior to WW2 kicking off in Europe, President FD Roosevelt in 1938 started modernising and rebuilding the US Army and Navy. More ships, aircraft, tanks, guns etc., were ordered. In 1940 FDR increased the tempo basically putting the US on a war footing and after the US entry to the war in December 1941 they found themselves fighting a 2 front war and supplying the allies. The interesting thing is that most of the material ordered in 1940, such as ships and aircraft didn't arrive on the front lines until 1944, but when they did they arrived in sufficient numbers and were sufficiently advanced to change the tide of war. The US on its own basically out produced the Axis by a significant factor, hence it being known as the arsenal of democracy. However back then it had a tremendous industrial capacity to turn to making war material with auto-makers churning out aircraft, tanks, trucks, and other materials. Shipyards turning out ships in huge numbers etc. The whole nation went onto a war footing and became a total war economy. However if FDR hadn't of started the planning and initiating action back in 1938, it would have been a completely different story.
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The UK & France both placed orders for aircraft in the USA early on, partly because they wanted to boost US production capacity. They foresaw possible bottlenecks in their own production, & wanted back up suppliers - & also had in mind a possible repeat of WW1, in which case they wanted the USA geared up to supply its own forces.

For example, the French ordered the DB-7 (A-20) before the USAAC, & requested changes which significantly improved it. The UK ended up with most of the French ones, though, because France fell before most had been delivered. The French also ordered the P-36 early & in considerable numbers (& operated it successfully). The UK got a lot of them, & also the French follow on orders for P-40s. And when the USAAC wanted fighters, Curtiss was well set up to deliver lots of 'em. And the P-51 was designed for a British order . . . & eventually fitted with a British engine which was already being made in the USA for the UK.

ngatimozart said:

The US has a rather large problem if it gets into a shooting war with a peer level enemy. It will be unable to resupply hardware such as ships aircraft and heavy armour quickly enough to cover the losses inflicted upon it in the first few weeks / months of the opening stanzas. In fact it has no real reserves now and even if it started to ramp up production to war time levels it no longer has the industrial base to sustain such production.

Prior to WW2 kicking off in Europe, President FD Roosevelt in 1938 started modernising and rebuilding the US Army and Navy. More ships, aircraft, tanks, guns etc., were ordered. In 1940 FDR increased the tempo basically putting the US on a war footing and after the US entry to the war in December 1941 they found themselves fighting a 2 front war and supplying the allies. The interesting thing is that most of the material ordered in 1940, such as ships and aircraft didn't arrive on the front lines until 1944, but when they did they arrived in sufficient numbers and were sufficiently advanced to change the tide of war. The US on its own basically out produced the Axis by a significant factor, hence it being known as the arsenal of democracy. However back then it had a tremendous industrial capacity to turn to making war material with auto-makers churning out aircraft, tanks, trucks, and other materials. Shipyards turning out ships in huge numbers etc. The whole nation went onto a war footing and became a total war economy. However if FDR hadn't of started the planning and initiating action back in 1938, it would have been a completely different story.

Today the US hasn't that capacity and anyone who thinks that they can ramp up and start pumping out war material like they did before and during WW2 is dreaming. They have 3 major aircraft manufacturers. Two shipbuilders capable of building warships. Four, maybe five Defence Primes all told, who control probably 90 - 95% of the defence manufacturing capacity. So whilst a production war surge isn't impossible it will be quite difficult to pull off in the required time, which will be short indeed.

US War Surge Production Too Slow, CSIS Finds - Breaking Defense

The United States could not make enough military equipment fast enough to sustain its military in the event of a major war. While much thought has been given to how a great power conflict might erupt or play out, far less has been written on how the U.S. industrial base could sustain U.S...

breakingdefense.com

The actual report: Industrial Mobilization: Assessing Surge Capabilities, Wartime Risk, and System Brittleness

I think that now the US really needs to take a good hard look at its defence production capability and start planning for a production surge now. That's the first part. The second is to start building the capabilities and platforms required. Don't worry about all the gee whiz fancy gears and fancy weapons, but just get capabilities and platforms built. Increase their capabilities in follow on tranches and forget the politics. Just get the job done. Get out of these current foreign bush wars and use that money to build up your forces and capabilities for the big war to come.

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Even against a peer power, would the war last long enough to allow for production or to make production matter? As for reserves, I was under the impression that quite a few M1A1s were sitting in storage, enough to get sold off used to other customers. Same for Bradleys... and there's plenty of jets sitting in the Mojave. Restoring some to service could be hard but others have been brought back before. I suspect that if the US wants to have a backup arsenal without spending an arm and a leg, the best thing would be to borrow from past US experience, and other countries', and simply store the last-gen hardware in working condition, ready for re-activation.

Defense Secretary Gen. Lloyd Austin confirmed

1. The US Senate voted on 22 Jan 2021 (Fri) to confirm President Joe Biden's defense secretary pick retired Gen. Lloyd Austin, who will be the first African American to run the department — which will lend the needed credence that historically, the American military has not wanted extremists in its ranks. Up to now, the US military has failed to establish a comprehensive way to screen extremist out. Soldiers themselves are noticing significant extremist thinking among their peers. Thus, this is not a new problem but rather a long-simmering one that now, for various reasons, may be starting to boil. With Lloyd Austin as the top civilian official at the Pentagon, the US Congress can be assured of a steady hand to deal with these deep rooted problems. Biden’s team has a 3 phase plan.

2. Austin, who retired in 2016 and had to be granted a waiver from a law requiring a defense secretary to wait seven years after active-duty service before taking the job. The House approved the waiver 21 Jan 2021 (Thurs), followed by US Senate approval of the measure.

3. As I predicted earlier, I understand why Biden went for tried and tested (the successor of Mathis as commander of CENTCOM). Biden did not have a real problem confirming his pick (as Democrats have to rally around their president); and with their control of the US Senate, with VP Kamala Harris able to provide a tie break vote, their agenda will not be derailed. And No. 1 on Biden’s agenda is domestic — to get the CORVID-19 pandemic under control.

4. The Biden administration and Austin’s new team at the Pentagon will be focusing a lot on institution building and reentering and rejoining institutions. For Antony Blinken, he will be a lot more focused on the WHO, the U.N. alike. I would expect the US to be actively engaged in the architecture-building of Asia, such as the ASEAN regional forum, the East Asia summit. These are a long way away, but you’re going to see Americans much more engaged generally.

5. I think you will also see the United States more focused in many mini-lateral engagements, with closer trilateral coordination between the Americans, Japanese and Australians or even the Americans, Koreans and the Japanese (to manage North Korea). I would not be surprised if the US continues an active engagement in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue and other engagements like ADMM Plus. The key here, the missing piece, is what is going to be the trade strategy. There is a need — a desire — across the Indian-Pacific region to see a coherent American approach, with Kurt Campbell leading the efforts in Asia.

Yep I think Austin is a good choice. Mattis was too BTW and I still have a lot of time for him.

There is a problem with far right extremism in the US military that has increased in recent years as extremists joined the military to gain knowledge, expertise and combat experience, as well as recruit adherents from amongst the military. Generally a nations military is a cross section of its society so you will end up with a small minority who may have extremist beliefs.

OPSSG said:

3. As I predicted earlier, I understand why Biden went for tried and tested (the successor of Mathis as commander of CENTCOM). Biden did not have a real problem confirming his pick (as Democrats have to rally around their president); and with their control of the US Senate, with VP Kamala Harris able to provide a tie break vote, their agenda will not be derailed. And No. 1 on Biden’s agenda is domestic — to get the CORVID-19 pandemic under control.

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just on this

Lawmakers voted 93-2 in a final floor vote. Two Republicans, Sens. Josh Hawley of Missouri and Mike Lee of Utah, were the only members to vote no.

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So he was passed nearly unanimously. These aren't controversial choices, they are highly popular selections that both sides agree with.

Allies matter again. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III spoke by phone with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg shortly after arriving at the Pentagon.

StingrayOZ said:

just on this

So he was passed nearly unanimously. These aren't controversial choices, they are highly popular selections that both sides agree with.

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Sorry for the short reply.

You are correct to point that out that Austin enjoys bi-partisan support. At his confirmation, he attempted to allay fears of some committee members who raised concerns of setting dangerous precedent by allowing two waivers for defense secretaries in 4 years. He promised to surround himself with "experienced, capable civilian leaders" and to hire a chief of staff who "will not be a military person."

StingrayOZ said:

just on this

"Lawmakers voted 93-2 in a final floor vote. Two Republicans, Sens. Josh Hawley of Missouri and Mike Lee of Utah, were the only members to vote no."

So he was passed nearly unanimously. These aren't controversial choices, they are highly popular selections that both sides agree with.

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Hawley's an arsehole. When Missouri had a moderate Republican governor doing things such as persuading state legislators to vote against increasing their own pay, banning his staff from accepting gifts from lobbyists, selling one of the aircraft the state owned for flying him around in, cutting the number of state jobs for political appointees, etc., Hawley started a spurious lawsuit against him claiming corruption in campaign contributions. A single, trivial, breach of rules on notifications of donations (the sort of thing that can be & in this case probably was accidental) was found ($1000 fine - the governor didn't contest it), not the serious stuff Hawley claimed. Hawley backed Trump on the wall, family separation, etc., says human trafficking is caused by sexual freedom, & gave the bunch who stormed the capitol a salute just before they started smashing things.

I suspect he'll disagree with absolutely everything Biden does, just because it's done by Biden.

swerve said:

Hawley's an arsehole. When Missouri had a moderate Republican governor doing things such as persuading state legislators to vote against increasing their own pay, banning his staff from accepting gifts from lobbyists, selling one of the aircraft the state owned for flying him around in, cutting the number of state jobs fro political appointees, etc., Hawley started a spurious lawsuit against him claiming corruption in campaign contributions. A single, trivial, breach of rules on notifications was found ($1000 fine - the governor didn't contest it), not the serious stuff Hawley claimed. Hawley backed Trump on the wall, family separation, etc., says human trafficking is caused by sexual freedom, & gave the bunch who stormed the capitol a salute just before they started smashing things.

I suspect he'lldisagree with absolutely everything Biden does, just because it's done by Biden.

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Yep you are dead right about Hawley. Cruz is another one as well. Both of them make Tricky Dicky look positively honest and a saint in comparison. The real concern is that they could destroy the Republican Party, cleaving it apart with an internal war between their Trumpists and the moderate Republicans. I don't think that will do American democracy any good at all, in fact it would be quite harmful.

The US military has started 3D printing of N.95 masks which is a good option. Hopefully this capability can be rolled out to other medical facilities sooner rather than later.

ngatimozart said:

The US military has started 3D printing of N.95 masks which is a good option. Hopefully this capability can be rolled out to other medical facilities sooner rather than later.

U.S. military uses 3D printing to make N95 respirators - UPI.com

The U.S. Army is using 3-D printing technology to produce N95 respirators, the chief of the Defense Department's medical technology office said on Monday.

www.upi.com

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IIRC, the 3D printing relates to a mask frame only which then utilizes replaceable filters or cartridges.

Finally some good news about bipartisan cooperation. Hopefully this comes somewhat more frequent.

Gen Mattis's view on what the major security challenge to the US democracy at the moment is. It's not Russia, China or Iran, but internal problems. And I believe that he's hit the nail on the head.

ngatimozart said:

Gen Mattis's view on what the major security challenge to the US democracy at the moment is. It's not Russia, China or Iran, but internal problems. And I believe that he's hit the nail on the head.

Mattis issues a grave warning: We're in danger of destroying our democracy

Former Defense Secretary Jim Mattis is wondering aloud whether the American “experiment” in democracy will hold up here at home.

taskandpurpose.com

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Totally agree, I think that the US people have never been a particularly cohesive society with there always being a significant amount of factions in it to consider, north/south, left/right, black white, and east/west are just a few. With the rise in the pressures of living in the modern world and the the gap between the rich and poor widening the chances of trouble have increased and then along came Donald Trump who stirred the whole thing up and left the situation in a very fragile state. While our own society has a lot of these problems too, because we are a more cohesive bunch, dealing with these problems is so much easier and these problems are not on the same scale as the US nor is there the sense of division there appears to be in the US.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Just another example of how getting in bed with China can bite you in the a$$ eventually. A risky situation for Israel given their financial aid from the US wrt defence kit not to mention the diverging views on Iran.

John Fedup said:

It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Just another example of how getting in bed with China can bite you in the a$$ eventually. A risky situation for Israel given their financial aid from the US wrt defence kit not to mention the diverging views on Iran.

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Israel is an ally that is also sovereign and can have their own controls processes for Chinese investments. This means the country can say no to an unreasonable American request.

OPSSG said:

Israel is an ally that is also sovereign and can have their own controls processes for Chinese investments. This means the country can say no to an unreasonable American request.

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Yes, they can but they had better be ready for some blowback. Biden can only do so much in holding back the desires of many Americans who would (foolishly IMO) like to abandon allies and isolate America from the ROW.

And given how much support Israel has received from the US over the years, you would think they would be wary of cutting of their nose to spite their face. Although their lobby has enjoyed effectively bipartisan support for years because of its electoral clout, you wouldn’t want to take that for granted, and you would, I should have thought, wanted to be careful not to p**s off your major ally. Particularly as the US relationship with China is deteriorating pretty spectacularly, and that doesn’t seem likely to change much under Joe based on the comments of his Secs of State and Def

spoz said:

And given how much support Israel has received from the US over the years, you would think they would be wary of cutting of their nose to spite their face. Although their lobby has enjoyed effectively bipartisan support for years because of its electoral clout, you wouldn’t want to take that for granted, and you would, I should have thought, wanted to be careful not to p**s off your major ally. Particularly as the US relationship with China is deteriorating pretty spectacularly, and that doesn’t seem likely to change much under Joe based on the comments of his Secs of State and Def

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I wouldn't speak for the entire US, but to answer some of those talking trash at Israel, I would recommend to consider the fact that Israel is not their dog. As for the US, it is quite capable of addressing its relationship with allies all on its own. While there are many many people inside the US who hate Israel, they are a very very small minority still. Sometimes people do not understand how a very large number can be a very small minority.

Biden’s Foreign Policy in Context — Part 1

@John Fedup and @spoz,

1. Great to see that adults are in charge again under the Biden administration — with the corresponding marginalisation of the stupid and moving on from failed adventures in perception management without substance — Jen Psaki dealt with the Haifa port issue, effectively and moved on to other issues in a coherent manner. As President Biden said:

John Fedup said:

Yes, they can but they had better be ready for some blowback. Biden can only do so much in holding back the desires of many Americans who would (foolishly IMO) like to abandon allies and isolate America from the ROW.

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2. Joe Biden, Tony Blinken, Lloyd Austin, Jake Sullivan and Brett McGurk (with the last 2 at the National Security Council) are not stupid, as they would understand Israel better and work in a more productive manner to get the info the Americans need. At every level, the Biden administration is reaching out to their counter parts in Israel to connect and manage the problematic issues, instead of going to the press or getting into a public pissing match. This includes calls through:

3. As I said before, the Chinese will tell you that Donald Trump and Mike Pompeo has accelerated America’s decline in influence and felt that they do more harm to American interests than any other US President or Secretary of State, in history. Beijing's conviction is that the U.S. is now rapidly declining, gives Xi strategic patience.

4. This stupidity of raising the Haifa port issue in public (under Donald Trump and Mike Pompeo) has emboldened China to accelerate pursuit of longtime goal of sowing discord. Getting in a public pissing match with Israel is an own goal, especially since inter-ministry coordination in Israel is totally lacking — the left hand does not know what the right hand is doing. It would help you actually read the link you provided. This is a Trump era, knee-jerk issue, with no coherence in execution.

5. John, can you stop trying to sow more Trump era discord, as it helps China? Often times, many who are blindly anti-China do the most to advance China’s agenda, accidentally.

6. I am also betting you don’t know who is Brett McGurk — whose input to Jake Sullivan as NSA, would guide decisions. In Feb 2019, McGurk received the James Foley Freedom Award for his work in securing the release of Americans held hostage by the Iranian government and his leadership in the campaign to defeat ISIS. Previously, McGurk quit his role as the US envoy to the international coalition to combat the ISIS late in 2018 (over Trump's decision to withdraw American troops from northern Syria).

7. Jake Sullivan, told reporters that the White House is working with international partners on sanctions for individuals and entities controlled by the military. "We believe we have plenty of space to be able to find the types of sanctions targets necessary to sharpen the choice for the Burmese military," Sullivan said. The White House is also considering an executive order on the issue, he said.

spoz said:

And given how much support Israel has received from the US over the years, you would think they would be wary of cutting of their nose to spite their face. Although their lobby has enjoyed effectively bipartisan support for years because of its electoral clout, you wouldn’t want to take that for granted, and you would, I should have thought, wanted to be careful not to p**s off your major ally. Particularly as the US relationship with China is deteriorating pretty spectacularly, and that doesn’t seem likely to change much under Joe based on the comments of his Secs of State and Def

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8. I think this Haifa port thing is a non-issue, as there are bigger, more urgent issues to manage, for President Biden. Biden concerns include a 1 Feb 2021 coup in Myanmar and the Russian government’s sentencing of opposition leader Alexei Navalny to more than two years in prison — events that have posed a challenge to one of Biden’s top global priorities: promoting democracy.