The Current Conflict In Syria

Firn

Active Member
Some views on the state of the Assad regime and the implications. It does control most of the Syrian population but reigns over a ruined land.In the south region of Daraa, a hotbed of the revolution there is an assassination campaign against persons working in or with it. In the South-east there is still ISIS activity. Turkish backup for rebel forces facilitated the defence of the Idlib region and its invasion created an entity around Afrin with some indications that the Turkey wants to stay longer. There is deep hostility between Erdogan and Assad, with the former denying, like some western states, his right to rule. The fear of a quasi-independent state with a strong Kurdish imprint will have an impact on Erdogan but both have shown little inclination for compromise.

Of great importance is also the fate of the Syrian population in Idlib, Afrin and Turkey itself. We are talking about 6 million people here and what about the rebels? Some were integrated into the 5th corps of the SAA however those were mostly from the center and the south and not influenced to such an degree by Turkey.

Maybe the man most responsible for so much death and destruction will be able to position himself somehow as the only long-term option for stability and peace. The third Turkish invasion might ease the demands by Arab and Western states and provide an external enemy* and a path to diplomatic solution.

A suitable cynical outcome for a civil war with so many cynical interventions.

I will leave it there for a while, thanks, it helped me to think things through.

*Erdogan should know by now that using war cuts both ways in at least two ways, internal and external.
 
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John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Clearly Assad is a horrible POS but the sad fact is if no military aid was provided to any anti-Assad elements at the start of the failed Arab Spring, millions would be better off today. Don’t know if he is the best option now from a $hit list of poor choices but if he is, he will have to have significant Russian help.
 

Firn

Active Member
We look from the present into the past and only see the path linking the two. So many internal and external factors became fatally intertwined and drove the country and it's people through a maelstrom of war. Assads actions sparked armed rebellions and weapons flowing, rebel successes brought more manpower from Iran and so forth. When one faction became slow other actors stepped up in an classical escalation of mobilization, actio and reactio.

This incremental logic is a very dangerous way to proceed but has some sort of path-dependency. If I send some weapons and money and my side starts losing I will send some more with little financial cost. It has certainly increased the scope and length of the war.

As a matter of fact it worked unintentionally if brutally effective like the classical divide et impera, often employed to weaken a strategic threat. If no faction is able to prevail in a struggle the entity will be depopulated and exhausted, reducing the ability to project power or even defend itself against outsiders. With the Syrian air defence long shattered Israel can for example bomb pretty much anything supposedly Hezbollah-related with ease.

The Syrian army had once arguably the most modern armored force in the Middle East, now it has so dwindled that even the thought of attacking through the Golan heights doesn't occur.

If you actually care about the people in such an scenario you don't play the game or you enter with fast and hard creating some fait accompli. Hopefully the other potential players see little chance to win and exit. Turkey has long played the incremental game but only after direct actions by regulars in very favorable circumstances like Afrin, small and almost surrounded by departure point did it make gains.

But in this regions it is a tradition to found, help, arm, support all sorts of groups for all sorts of reasons but often just to have a needle to irritate other states. So the support might actually be managed to avoid too much political and military ambition so that it doesn't become a gun pointed at the survival of the state. Sometimes this whole business blows up and the kindled movement becomes powerful and backfires occasionally. I would argue that the Taliban are such a case for Pakistan and not only for the US.

War is the continuation of politics with a mixing of other means and is inherently risky as already Clausewitz pointed out. The Prussian king would certainly not have intervened with others in a France mired in revolution if he had known that out of it a Napoleon would rise and smash the old order and Prussian pride...
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Despite the announced ceasefire some combat operations have continued with the Kurds and Turks blaming each other for it. A Turkish helo went down, but while the Kurds claim it was brought down by fire, the Turks claim it was a technical malfunction, and they destroyed the downed helo themselves with an airstrike. Also a pocket of YPG fighters are surrounded in Al-Rays but have refused to withdraw.

SAA forces with small quantities of Russian MPs are continuing their movements around Kurdish held areas, and it's starting to look like the Turkish zone of control will be very small indeed, compared to the giant swathes of territory falling to the Syrian government.

To make matters more interesting, it appears the US intends to retain ~200 troops in North-Eastern Syria, presumably east of Qamishly, thus effectively controlling those oil fields that were such a question of contention earlier.

Перемирие в Сирии сорвано
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/5359206.html
Коротко по Сирии. 19.10.2019

A Kurdish cache of Grad missiles was captured by Turkish proxies.

Захваченный протурецкими прокси склад боеприпасов курдов с НУРС 9М28Ф/Ф-1 для РСЗО «Град»
 

Volkodav

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
I wonder if this could become Turkeys Vietnam / Afghanistan?

A populist leader hoping for an easy victory and to prove himself a hard man to reverse recent electoral reverses, over stretches and loses much of his supporting base.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I wonder if this could become Turkeys Vietnam / Afghanistan?

A populist leader hoping for an easy victory and to prove himself a hard man to reverse recent electoral reverses, over stretches and loses much of his supporting base.
I think the area in question is too small for that. Turkey could certainly faced stiff continued resistance, but I doubt anything like a long term guerilla war. I think the continued conflict against the PKK in Turkey itself can be more accurately compared with Afghanistan/Vietnam.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Russian and Syrian forces have entered Tabqa airbase and are proceeding to clean up the landing strip, potentially to continue using the base in support of operations in Rojava and Deyr ez Zor.

Россия и Сирия восстанавливают авиабазу Табка

Meanwhile the Kurds have left Al-Rays to the Turks and their proxies. The Turks did not interfere with the withdrawal, as part of the ceasefire.

Курды сдали Рас-аль-Айн

There appears to be considerable unrest among the Kurds over the withdrawal of US troops, some going to far as to pelt withdrawing troops with rocks.

Проводы освободителей
Курды торжественно провожают Армию США, покидающую Qamishli

It appears that the Syrian express is still going strong, 26 T-62 tanks, 14 2S1 howitzers, and dozes of trucks, were delivered to Syria in the latest shipment.

Сирия получила из России 26 танков Т-62, 14 САУ «Гвоздика» и несколько десятков автомобилей
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
There appears to be considerable unrest among the Kurds over the withdrawal of US troops, some going to far as to pelt withdrawing troops with rocks.
Bloody lucky its rocks that are the only things being pelted at them! Clearly most realize it is the analtard in the WH that is responsible, not the troops.

@John Fedup Whilst we may not like a particular politician or class of politician, it doesn't give us the excuse to be vulgar. In future refrain from such vulgarities. Regard this as a warning.
Ngatimozart.
 
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ASSAIL

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Bloody lucky its rocks that are the only things being pelted at them! Clearly most realize it is the analtard in the WH that is responsible, not the troops.
Can’t help myself but you do remind me of an oldie, “those who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones” :D
 

2007yellow430

Active Member
Their glass house is already tumbling down around them, and honestly they mostly have themselves to blame. US behavior was not only predictable, but also predicted by many observers.
maybe it was, but there are many ways this could have been done. Most of which would not have caused this turmoil. Trump chose the most harmful, cowardly method without a thought to our allies. That is the problem. Regaining trust will take decades I suspect.

Art
 

Waldo Pepper

New Member
In response to recent stinging jab by Gen. Mattis, perhaps trump trying to earn some spurs in this war. Also, surprised not much mention of Incirlik Air Base as as leverage for Erdogan to do as he pleases.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Updates.

A large overall agreement between Russia and Turkey has been published. The Syrian Government removes the Kurdish militias from Kobani, Manbij, and the surrounding areas, as well as two large segments of the border; with the Turks retaining a large strip, including Tell Abyad and Rays al Ayn, going 32 kms deep. It's unclear what happens to the Kurds inside the rest of their current area of control. Syrian troops and Russian MPs are running around all over the area, but their presence is mostly symbolic. On top of this, it appears the US isn't withdrawing completely. 200 US troops will remain in the Syrian north-east, controlling key oil fields. To "protect" them, of course. A US oil company may be allowed to work the oil fields.

Новая сделка Турции и России
ВЗГЛЯД.РУ - Трамп объявил о взятии месторождений нефти на севере Сирии «под охрану» США
Путин заявил, что Эрдоган подробно объяснил ему цели и задачи военной операции Турции в Сирии
Добычей нефти в Сирии в интересах курдов может заняться крупная компания из США, заявил Трамп
Коротко по Сирии. 22.10.2019

Russian helicopters have landed at Tabqa.

Вертолеты ВКС России сели на аэродром на севере Сирии, откуда вышли американские войска

Meanwhile Assad has visited SAA positions in Idlib province. Combined with the earlier seen shipments of arms, I wouldn't be surprised to see another offensive in that area.

Асад на фронте в Идлибе

Iraq's MinDef has stated that US troops withdrawing from Syria must leave Iraq since they don't have permission to stay there.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iraq-us-troops-leaving-syria-cant-stay-esper-defense-2019-10-22/
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

It looks like Russia and Syria will conduct joint patrols inside the Turkish control area. All Kurdish units are to be withdrawn from that area, and Putin has already intimated that they will get rolled over by the Turks if they don't withdraw. With the US retaining a presence in the north-east, it remains to be seen how exactly the lines are drawn.

Продолжение операции не требуется
Wall
После встречи Путина с Эрдоганом Кремль пригрозил курдам - они "попадут под каток турецкой армии"

Footage of Russian military police and SOF personnel in and around Kobani.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/5371791.html

WikiLeaks has published documents casting doubt on the investigation of the Douma chemical weapons attacks.

WikiLeaks - OPCW Whistleblower Panel on the Douma attack of April 2018
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
I see that the US have finally caught up with Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and delivered chastisement unto him. I normally can't abide President trumps rhetoric, however I though that his choice of words, in this case appropriate although somewhat insulting to dogs: ISIL chief Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi killed in Syria, confirms Trump. There has been some reaction from other world leaders: World reacts to death of ISIL leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, with the Russians casting some doubt and the Iranians claiming the US killed its own creation. However, it is thought that al-Baghdadi's death will not be the death of Daesh, a stumble yes, but not a deleterious ending as some are claiming. It certainly won't make the world much of a safer place because, by all accounts, Daesh had planned for the death of al-Baghdadi and it is not tied to one man. Baghdadi's death will damage ISIS, but not destroy it. If anything it may create greater security paranoia amongst its surviving leadership, and further devolution of authority from the centre to the franchise groups with the only fixed commandment being that they strictly adhere to the teachings and dogma of al-Baghdadi.
 
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John Fedup

The Bunker Group
One has to wonder what kind of effective leadership this mutt was really providing the last couple of years. He was rarely seen and certainly didn't have the persona of Bin Laden. Still, a good outcome, even if it takes the political heat off of Trump for a few days.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
One has to wonder what kind of effective leadership this mutt was really providing the last couple of years. He was rarely seen and certainly didn't have the persona of Bin Laden. Still, a good outcome, even if it takes the political heat off of Trump for a few days.
he doesn't have to be seen to provide the leadership. If he was passing on his dogmas and fatwas etc., through other channels down through the chain of command he was still leading. As long as he was getting his message an orders out to his subordinates and followers, he was doing his job. They still have their social media presence I believe.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
From a security POV, his minimal presence did make sense. Unlike many other leaders I don't believe he had any field experience. Only the intelligence officials can gauge how much control he was exerting on his subordinates and followers or if senior ISIS commanders were running the show. He seemed to be a concept guy and then he hid in the shadows as a figure head occasionally sticking his had up. He was more like Mullah Omar without the battlefield experience.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Updates.

The SDF is withdrawing from the border zone.

SDF отводит войска от границы с Турцией

SAA forces near Ayn Rassa.

Wall

Footage of Turkish troops in northern Syria.

Wall

Footage of Russian troops in northern Syria.

Wall
Wall

Russian MoD claims that the US is protecting contraband of oil from Eastern Syria.

Спецназ и авиация США защищают бензовозы ЧВК с контрабандной нефтью из Сирии

Russia says they have no reliable confirmation of the death of al Baghdadi.

http://classic.newsru.com/russia/27oct2019/konashenkov.html

Allegedly about a hundred Russian citizens escaped from an ISIS detention facility in SDF hands.

http://classic.newsru.com/world/26oct2019/ruswomen.html

Low level fighting is continuing on the outskirts of Latakia province, with the SAA losing vehicles in a failed attack.

https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1238374
 
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